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Two Quants and a Financial Planner: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Excess Returns
Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.
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The most recent episodes — sign up to get AI-powered summaries of each one.
- 6 days ago46 min
The Moats Are Invisible. So Is the Risk in Your Bond Fund. What Else Can't You See?
Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler explore portfolio diversification, hidden bond-fund risks, AI inflation and the competitive advantages that help great businesses compound. Drawing on conversations with Chris Mayer, Robert Hagstrom, Jared Dillian, John Kerschner and Michael Contopoulos, this Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines how to build a portfolio you can stick with and why your investments should account for the risks in your working life.Topics covered:Chris Mayer's invisible moats: how culture and execution can sustain high returns on invested capital.Why Robert Hagstrom sees potential mispricing in competitive advantages that are difficult to measure.Jared Dillian's challenge to Charlie Munger's advice about enduring 50% drawdowns.The Awesome Portfolio, risk tolerance and why comparing everything with the S&P 500 can undermine diversification.How debt-weighted bond indexes can leave investors with more interest rate risk than they expect.Understanding duration and the fixed income sectors that core bond funds can overlook.The case that AI spending, energy demand, labor shortages and rising wealth are inflationary today.How to judge whether AI threatens a business by tracking its most important operating metrics.Why value investors hold losers too long and how a few big winners can carry a portfolio.Dillian's life hedge: accounting for career risk, employer stock and human capital when investing.Timestamps:00:00 AI backlash and this week's investing lessons05:03 Robert Hagstrom on invisible moats and mispricing09:05 Jared Dillian challenges Munger on 50% drawdowns13:05 Risk-adjusted returns and the benchmarking trap17:15 The interest rate risk hiding in core bond funds22:04 Understanding your bond fund's duration28:23 Why AI's inflation costs can precede its benefits33:25 Why value investors struggle to sell37:53 The life hedge: when your job and stocks fall together42:47 Investing alongside clients versus managing personal riskLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- 1 weeks ago49 min
AI Demand Is Real. The Accounting Games Are Growing. How Long Can Both Be True?
Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler explore the AI investment boom, Federal Reserve credibility, accounting risks and the dangers of buying stocks to hold forever. Featuring clips from Dan Niles, Ben Hunt, Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig, this Excess Returns Weekly Wrap connects rising AI adoption with questions about earnings quality, market narratives and the slow financial damage caused by gambling and overtrading.Topics covered:Why even the smartest technology companies can overinvest and misread demandHow agentic AI could drive another wave of adoption, computing demand and business returnsBen Hunt's broken teacup analogy for reputation and Federal Reserve credibilityWhy central bank actions matter more when investors stop believing the rhetoricCameron Dawson's concerns about Nvidia receivables, hyperscaler cash flow and AI accountingHow leases, special purpose vehicles and one-time investment gains complicate earnings analysisDan Niles on survivorship bias and the risks of assuming today's market leaders will win foreverHow Ben Hunt measures narrative life cycles, bursts and shifts in common knowledgeThe connection between declining trust in central banks and gold pricesWhy sports betting, overtrading and repeated small losses can quietly undermine long-term wealthTimestamps:00:00 This week's lineup and Jack's unexpected action hero moment04:09 Dan Niles on smart companies, AI bubbles and agentic demand11:55 Ben Hunt on credibility and the Fed's broken teacup19:46 Cameron Dawson on AI accounting and hidden cash flow pressures28:13 Dan Niles challenges the buy-and-hold-forever mindset32:51 Ben Hunt explains how to measure narrative life cycles37:01 Connecting Fed credibility narratives to gold prices41:04 Dave Nadig on the slow financial drain of sports betting45:09 Gambling from income versus spending down your savingsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- 2 weeks ago43 min
Bond Panic. Software Pileup. Borrowed AI Earnings. Are Investors Pricing the Wrong Risk?
In this Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down why rising long-term bond yields may be justified by stronger nominal growth, large fiscal deficits and AI-driven capital spending, and why the bigger market risk may be an AI earnings bubble rather than a valuation bubble. Featuring Kevin Muir, Dan Rasmussen and Ian Cassel, the episode also explores private equity’s huge software bet, the traits of elite stock pickers, and how the worldview of AI leaders could be driving unusually aggressive capital spending and risk-taking.Topics covered:Why long-term bond yields may be more rational than alarming given stronger nominal GDP, inflation, deficits and heavy Treasury and corporate issuanceHow global fiscal expansion and the AI infrastructure build-out are adding to bond supply and upward pressure on ratesWhy suppressing market interest rates can distort an important economic signal and create unintended consequencesHow private equity became a lagged momentum investor and built massive exposure to software and healthcare technologyWhy recurring revenue does not make a business bulletproof, and how AI could challenge software economics that once looked untouchableIan Cassel’s benchmarks for good, great and GOAT stock pickers, from 10-year outperformance to 20% annualized returnsThe five or six core investing skills elite stock pickers need, and why world-class investors become exceptional at one or twoHow AI CapEx can boost current supplier earnings while the buyer’s expense is spread over years through depreciationWhy an AI earnings bubble could exist even if headline valuation multiples do not look extremeHow futurism, expected-value thinking and confidence in AGI may be encouraging AI leaders to take enormous capital spending risksTimestamps:00:00 Intro: Kevin Muir, Dan Rasmussen and Ian Cassel05:09 Why suppressing bond yields could create new risks09:54 Private equity as a lagged momentum investor14:15 Why investment committees chase three- and five-year returns19:00 The skills that separate good investors from great ones23:11 Why elite stock picking takes a decade or more to judge27:18 How AI CapEx is changing cash flow, buybacks and earnings31:47 Price bubbles vs earnings bubbles36:00 Why AI leaders may be taking massive CapEx risk40:49 AI adoption bottlenecks and the need for skepticismLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- 3 weeks ago31 min
Rates Keep Climbing. Stocks Refuse to Break. What If They're Saying the Same Thing?
This week on the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down key investing lessons from recent conversations with Andy Constan, Liz Ann Sonders and Bob Robotti.They examine why rising long-term interest rates can coexist with a strong stock market, how rolling recessions and the shift from labor income to corporate profits are shaping the economy, why AI's biggest beneficiaries may be in energy and old-economy materials, and whether the bond market can really lose control of long-term yields.Topics covered:Why higher long-term interest rates can be consistent with stronger economic growth and rising stock pricesHow productivity growth, Treasury issuance and corporate bond supply can push real yields higherWhy the post-pandemic economy has experienced rolling sector recessions instead of a traditional synchronized business cycleHow stock market optimism can coexist with pessimism about unemployment, wages and the broader economyWhy labor compensation has fallen as a share of GDP while corporate profits have increasedWhat the labor-versus-capital shift may mean for inflation, investor sentiment and future policyWhy the AI capital spending boom creates demand for cement, aluminum, copper, natural gas and other physical inputsHow low-cost North American natural gas could support reindustrialization and give the U.S. a structural energy advantageWhy renewables and electrification still depend on traditional energy, commodities and industrial materialsHow decades of underinvestment in energy and materials could create a long-duration capital cycle for value investorsWhy deep natural demand for Treasuries makes a disorderly loss of control over the long end of the yield curve less likelyTimestamps:02:15 Why rising rates and record-high stocks can coexist07:30 Rolling recessions and why the economy isn't moving in sync11:57 Labor vs. capital and the rise in corporate profit share17:39 Why the biggest AI beneficiaries may be cement, copper and natural gas25:26 Could the bond market really lose control of the long end?30:22 Where to find episode notes, transcripts and moreLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- Aug 17, 202631 min
Falling Rates. Rising Productivity. Are Good Things Bearish?
In this week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down Jim Paulsen's warning that falling Treasury yields could become bad news for stocks if markets shift from inflation fears to growth fears, and Dom Rizzo's bullish case for AI productivity and frontier models. They also examine whether today's productivity boom is real, how AI coding tools like Claude Code and Codex could reshape white-collar work, and why recessions can create misleading spikes in measured productivity.Topics coveredWhy falling Treasury yields can be bullish when inflation is cooling but bearish when growth is weakeningJim Paulsen's case that economic surprise data could be pointing toward lower 10-year Treasury yieldsWhat the stock-bond correlation says about whether investors are more worried about inflation or recessionDom Rizzo's bullish case for AI-driven coding productivity and the rapid growth of frontier AI modelsHow large the AI coding market could become and where OpenAI, Anthropic and other AI companies may capture valueWhy open-source and lower-cost AI models could dominate token volume while frontier models capture most of the economicsWhether enterprise AI spending is evidence that companies are already seeing meaningful returnsThe challenge of translating more code and faster knowledge work into measurable revenue, cost savings and economic productivityJim Paulsen's argument that recessions often create temporary spikes in measured productivityWhether today's productivity gains reflect a genuine AI boom, economic weakness, or some combination of bothTimestamps00:00 Why hearing the AI case you disagree with matters04:47 When falling Treasury yields could become bad news for stocks10:54 Dom Rizzo on AI coding productivity and who captures the value16:49 Can we actually measure the economic payoff from AI?22:52 Jim Paulsen on why recessions can create false productivity booms27:00 What today's productivity data may be saying about the economyLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- Aug 10, 202632 min
We Reunited David Rosenberg and Rich Bernstein After 20 Years | The Misallocation They Both See
This week on the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down the AI capital spending boom, the risk that data center investment is crowding out housing and other parts of the economy, and what that means for markets. Featuring Richard Bernstein, David Rosenberg, Tian Yang, and Brent Donnelly, the episode covers AI CapEx, GDP growth, inflation, the K-shaped economy, AI ROI, and why rationality and Bayesian thinking matter more than raw intelligence for investors and traders.Topics coveredWhy the AI and data center boom may be misallocating capital away from housing and infrastructureWhat the dot-com bubble taught Richard Bernstein about investing where capital is scarceWhy AI related spending is approaching half of business CapEx while ex-AI investment is shrinkingHow today's K-shaped economy differs from the broad economic boom of the late 1990sThe difference between AI's contribution to GDP growth and its share of total GDPTian Yang's Kalecki-Levy framework for understanding spending, savings, income, and economic resilienceWhy a pullback in hyperscaler CapEx could weaken the spending and income loopWhy AI return on investment is so difficult to measure and how the profit pool could broaden beyond hardwareBrent Donnelly on why rationality and flexibility matter more than credentials or raw intelligenceWhy persistent bearishness can become a major investing mistakeHow Bayesian thinking, position sizing, and changing your mind help investors stay in the gameTimestamps00:02 Rich Bernstein and David Rosenberg reunite and this week's lineup04:10 The dot-com lesson: what happens when capital floods one sector08:15 AI CapEx, inflation, and why today's economy is different from the 1990s13:58 Kalecki-Levy: how spending and savings are keeping growth resilient18:03 AI CapEx concentration, productivity, and the uncertainty around ROI22:21 Brent Donnelly on why rationality beats intelligence26:21 Strong opinions, flexibility, and Bayesian thinking30:33 What traders and market makers can teach long-term investorsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- Aug 3, 202635 min
A War-Sized AI Bet. The Fed Goes Dark. Is One More Hike the Death Shot? | The Weekly Wrap
On this episode of the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler examine how the AI capital spending boom, an unpredictable Federal Reserve, reduced corporate reporting and factor investing are reshaping markets.They break down Ben Hunt's warning about private credit and AI infrastructure, Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig on the loss of Fed forward guidance, Wes Gray on why value may matter more than company size, and Rupert Mitchell on the rate hike that could end the cycle.Topics covered:Why the AI capital spending boom is forcing hyperscalers to borrow money and issue equityHow private credit and private equity are financing the AI infrastructure buildoutWhy a slowdown in AI CapEx could create broader financial system riskHow government borrowing and AI investment are crowding out capital and pushing interest rates higherThe impact of data center electricity demand on consumers and the broader economyHow Kevin Warsh's no-forward-guidance policy changes Federal Reserve expectationsWhy greater front-end interest rate volatility matters for floating-rate debt and private creditThe debate over replacing quarterly corporate reports with six-month reportingWes Gray's argument that value, not small-company size, is the real source of higher expected returnsRupert Mitchell's death shot framework for how a final central bank rate hike can end a market cycleTimestamps:00:00 AI spending, Fed uncertainty and this week's market themes05:07 How the AI buildout crowds out capital across the economy10:44 No Fed forward guidance and a new era of policy uncertainty15:48 Why six-month corporate reporting could hurt investors20:30 Wes Gray on the small-cap premium24:42 Why value matters more than company size28:57 How a surprise rate hike could break risk assets34:05 Global value investing and pairing different investor perspectivesLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- Jul 26, 202630 min
No ROI Yet. Fewer Recessions. Are You Making More Money? | 4 Things We Learned This Week
This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines when AI spending will translate into measurable end-user ROI, why the U.S. business cycle may now produce fewer recessions, and how Federal Reserve policy could combine lower short-term rates with a smaller balance sheet. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down insights from Andy Constan, Azeem Azhar and Aahan Menon on AI productivity, business-cycle shifts, asset prices and the tradeoffs between Wall Street and Main Street.Topics coveredWhy subsidized AI tokens may be masking the true economics of end-user ROIThe difference between personal productivity gains, cost savings and measurable business profitsHow the transition from electric light bulbs to assembly lines explains AI process redesignWhy adding more copilots cannot turn a legacy company into an AI-native enterpriseThe productivity J-curve and why promising AI investments may initially look unprofitableHow the shift from manufacturing toward services and technology changed the business cycleWhy housing and industrial indicators may be less reliable signals for the broader economyHow consumer conditions, equity wealth and technology investment increasingly drive growthWhy stronger balance sheets and policy intervention may be reducing recession frequencyHow lower short-term rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet could affect asset prices and inequalityTimestamps00:00 Intro and this week's triple-A lineup04:00 AI's long-term promise and medium-term transition risk08:18 Azeem Azhar on electricity as a model for AI adoption12:28 Why more copilots cannot create an AI-native company16:39 How services and technology changed the business cycle21:20 Why policy intervention may be smoothing recessions26:00 How Fed policy could rebalance Wall Street and Main Street30:05 Closing thoughts and where to follow Excess ReturnsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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About Two Quants and a Financial Planner
Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.
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