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- Yesterday1h 8m
He Invested Through Five Bubbles. He Wrote the Book on Them | The Weekly Wrap - 5/17/2026
This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together highlights from our interviews with Jeremy Grantham, Andy Constan, Edward Chancellor and Marc Rubinstein to examine AI, bubbles, private credit, market structure and the lessons of past capital cycles.We look at whether AI is creating a new investment bubble, why technological revolutions often disappoint investors even when the technology succeeds, and how private credit, financials, monopolies and market leadership fit into today’s confusing market environment.Main topics covered:• Jeremy Grantham on mean reversion, monopoly power and why the Mag 7 may have avoided normal competitive pressure• Andy Constan’s framework for bubbles, including the “something new,” escalation event and peaking phase• Edward Chancellor on AI capex, overstated demand and why boom-time profits can reverse when investment is misallocated• Marc Rubinstein on private credit, redemption gates, retail investors and why the risks may be real without being systemic• Grantham’s argument that AI may become a cost of doing business rather than a permanent boost to aggregate profits• Lessons from Long-Term Capital Management and how policy responses can add fuel to a bubble• What railway mania, canals and past technology booms can teach investors about winners, losers and overbuilding• Rubinstein’s case for European financials and why growth can be dangerous in financial services• Grantham’s bubble detector and the signal that has appeared near the tops of 1929, the Nifty Fifty, 2000 and 2021• Why investors need humility when navigating bubble regimes, AI enthusiasm, private credit and market concentrationTimestamps:00:00 Jeremy Grantham, Andy Constan and Edward Chancellor on AI, bubbles and capex01:14 Why this week’s conversations connect across AI, bubbles and market structure04:31 Jeremy Grantham on monopoly power, mean reversion and the Mag 711:24 Andy Constan’s three-stage framework for market bubbles20:12 Edward Chancellor on AI capex, overstated demand and reported profits30:28 Marc Rubinstein on private credit gates and the limits of systemic risk37:50 Jeremy Grantham on why AI may become a cost of doing business42:55 How Long-Term Capital Management helped fuel the late 1990s bubble50:02 What railways, canals and overbuilding teach us about technology booms55:58 Marc Rubinstein on European financials, innovation and US market confusion1:00:38 Jeremy Grantham’s bubble detector and the warning from market leaders1:05:59 Closing thoughts on bubble signals, investor humility and Excess Returns resources
- 1 weeks ago1h 6m
The S&P 500 is Just 46 Stocks. 89% of the Economy is Flatlining | What We Learned This Week
This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap looks at what Ian Cassel, Chris Mayer, Jim Paulsen and Elena Khoziaeva can teach investors about stock picking skill, inflation risk, AI, software moats, small caps and market concentration. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on why elite investors can be wrong almost half the time, why today may not be the 1970s or the 1990s, how AI is affecting software businesses, and why the S&P 500 may be far less diversified than investors think.Topics CoveredWhy great stock pickers can be right only 49% of the time and still generate exceptional returnsThe role of outliers, magnitude and position sizing in long-term investing successJim Paulsen’s argument that today’s inflation backdrop is very different from the 1970sHow supply shocks, tariffs, commodities and labor force growth shape the inflation outlookBridgeway’s research on redefining the small-cap premium by excluding IPOs and fallen large capsWhy vertical market software may be more resilient to AI disruption than horizontal softwareHow the AI boom and new era economy are masking weakness in the rest of the economyWhy the S&P 500 may effectively be driven by fewer than 50 stocks despite having 500 namesWhat management meetings can and cannot add to a stock picker’s processWhy patience, conviction and independent business verification may be enduring investing edgesTimestamps00:00 Intro and episode preview05:30 Why outliers drive stock picking returns09:58 Why today’s inflation may not be the 1970s17:27 Rethinking the small-cap premium24:11 AI disruption and vertical market software32:04 The AI boom versus the rest of the economy37:04 Why the S&P 500 acts like 46 stocks46:09 What investors can learn from management teams53:32 Why today’s tech boom is not the 1990s58:34 Patience, conviction and the last investing edge01:05:32 Closing thoughts and Excess Returns Substack
- 2 weeks ago1h 9m
Outperformed by Mom | The Weekly Wrap – 5/2/2026
This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines what Chris Davis and Rich Bernstein can teach investors about letting winners run, inflation risk, market concentration, dividends, AI, and the difference between economic stories and investment returns. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on portfolio concentration, the 1960s vs. the 1970s, investor complacency, the Fed’s inflation target, durable businesses, and where the next market opportunity may be hiding.Topics CoveredWhy letting winners run can be so powerful, but so hard for professional investorsChris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling great companiesThe tradeoff between concentration, diversification and real-world portfolio riskWhy Rich Bernstein thinks today may look more like the 1960s than the 1970sHow oil prices affect consumer behavior when measured against wagesChris Davis on why perceived risk can be very different from actual riskWhat cars, insurance and investor behavior reveal about market complacencyWhy the Fed’s 2% inflation target may not reflect the world investors are living inThe relationship between valuation, durability and software stocksWhy higher inflation could increase demand for dividends and near-term cash flowChris Davis on why exceptional people and management teams matter in investingWhy AI may be a great economic story but not necessarily a great investment storyTimestamps00:00 Letting winners run, 1960s inflation and investor risk perception02:18 Chris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling08:32 Reinvestment risk and the limits of active management12:45 Why oil shocks may matter less when gasoline is low relative to wages20:25 Chris Davis on why feeling safe can make investors take more risk29:20 Rich Bernstein on whether the Fed’s 2% inflation target is outdated34:08 Chris Davis on durability, valuation and software stocks39:39 Why cash flow gives durable companies room to adapt43:16 Rich Bernstein on dividends, inflation and the need for cash today51:55 Chris Davis on why people matter more than investors think56:07 The risk and value of investing with exceptional leaders1:01:30 Rich Bernstein on AI as an economic story vs. an investment story1:05:13 Why AI productivity may not translate into obvious stock market winners
- 3 weeks ago1h 12m
We Asked David Rosenberg, Chris Bloomstran and Cameron Dawson What This Market Is Getting Wrong
This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap explores one of the most important questions in markets today: what’s really driving this rally, and how fragile is it beneath the surface.We break down the growing concentration in earnings, the role of passive flows, and why multiple top investors see structural risks building even as markets continue to rise.We highlight key insights from David Rosenberg, Chris Bloomstran, Cameron Dawson, Dave Nadig, and Travis Prentice on market concentration, the macro link between asset prices and the economy, and how investors should think about risk, valuations, and positioning in an environment increasingly driven by flows rather than fundamentals.Topics CoveredWhy two companies are driving a disproportionate share of earnings growth and what that means for the broader marketThe growing link between stock prices, consumer spending, and the overall economyHow passive investing is changing market structure and risk measurementThe difference between tracking error risk and real risk for long-term investorsWhy valuations matter for long-term returns but not short-term timingLessons from past technology booms and whether AI is repeating historyThe role of capital intensity and margin pressure in today’s largest companiesWhy disruption eventually impacts even the best businessesHow professional investors adjust portfolios in expensive marketsWhy understanding probabilities and multiple scenarios is critical for investingTimestamps00:00 Intro04:45 David Rosenberg on the “perma bear” label and managing tail risk09:18 Chris Bloomstran on disruption and why no company compounds forever15:40 Why the economy is increasingly tied to the stock market20:28 The savings rate, consumer spending, and hidden economic risks26:00 Passive investing, flows, and how market structure has changed31:32 Tracking error vs real risk and investor behavior37:28 David Rosenberg on probabilities and having a plan B42:26 How investors manage portfolios in expensive markets43:38 Two companies driving 50% of earnings growth49:00 Concentration vs broadening in the market55:25 Valuations, bubbles, and expected returns01:01:00 Why valuations are not a short-term timing tool01:07:00 AI investment, overcapacity, and lessons from past tech cycles01:12:30 Bull vs bear case for AI-driven growth01:18:00 Final thoughts on market structure, flows, and long-term risks
- 4 weeks ago1h 5m
We Asked Liz Ann Sonders, Jim Grant, and Brent Donnelly What Investors Miss About This Market
This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together insights from Jim Grant, Liz Ann Sonders, and Brent Donnelly to break down the biggest forces driving markets right now, including war-driven inflation, oil shocks, market resilience, and the evolving role of sentiment and policy reactions. The conversation connects macro history with real-time market behavior to help investors understand what actually matters beneath the headlines.Topics Covered:Why war has historically been one of the most consistent drivers of inflationHow oil shocks impact both inflation and economic growth simultaneouslyThe nuance behind the “US as a net energy exporter” narrativeWhy markets require a steady stream of bad news to sustain a declineHow policy reaction functions (Fed, government) shape market outcomesThe difference between structural trends and short-term shocks in tradingWhy “buy the dip” has worked—and the risks if it stops workingThe role of retail traders and short-term flows in modern market dynamicsContribution vs. price performance in the Mag 7 and S&P 500How sentiment has evolved across different investor cohorts and timeframesTimestamps:00:00 Intro and overview of this week’s guests01:03 Jim Grant on why war is inherently inflationary05:16 Historical context for inflation and wartime dynamics10:40 Liz Ann Sonders on oil shocks and stock market reactions13:11 Demand destruction and the “cure for high prices”15:57 Brent Donnelly on shocks, positioning, and mean reversion18:33 Policy reaction functions and market reflexivity21:44 Jim Grant on bubbles, technology, and the air conditioning analogy27:04 Liz Ann Sonders on buy-the-dip behavior and retail traders32:37 Why markets need sustained bad news to decline38:24 Jim Grant on trust as the foundation of credit markets41:47 Liz Ann on Mag 7 growth vs. the rest of the market46:02 Contribution vs. performance in index construction48:01 Jim Grant on inflation, oil shocks, and policy mistakes52:38 Inflation as a continuous process and purchasing power loss57:09 Liz Ann on Marty Zweig, sentiment, and modern market structure01:02:35 Final thoughts on sentiment, behavior, and market complexity
- Apr 12, 20261h 10m
The Recession Signal Hidden in Walmart | The Weekly Wrap - 4/12/2026
This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together insights from Jim Paulsen, Brent Kochuba, Anthony Wang, and Tom Hancock to break down what’s really driving markets right now—from recession signals and oil shocks to AI economics and options flows. We explore whether current conditions look more like the start of a new bull market or something more fragile beneath the surface.We dive into unique indicators like the “Walmart signal,” shifting oil/VIX correlations, the real economics behind the AI boom, and what options markets are telling us about positioning and risk.Topics Covered:The Walmart vs. luxury retail indicator and what it signals about recession riskWhy oil is no longer driving volatility the way it did earlier in the crisisHow geopolitical shocks are (and aren’t) translating into equity market stressThe role of options flows and the JP Morgan collar in shaping market movesWhy all market signals should be viewed as probabilities, not certaintiesAI and the “cost of intelligence going to zero” and what that means for productivityThe layering of AI economics and how cash flows through the systemWhy this AI cycle differs from the dot-com bubble (utilization, funding, cost curves)The importance of cash-funded capex vs. debt-driven speculationWhy low consumer confidence may actually be bullish for stocksIndicators that look more like the start of a bull market than the endThe role of sentiment, positioning, and underreaction in driving returnsTimestamps:00:00 Intro01:00 Weekly Wrap overview and guest lineup03:05 The Walmart indicator and recession signals06:20 Private credit stress vs traditional credit signals09:05 Interpreting economic indicators in context10:25 Oil and VIX correlation breakdown13:05 Why oil stopped driving volatility15:00 “Certainty about uncertainty” and market behavior16:10 AI and the collapsing cost of intelligence18:40 Agents, productivity, and the future of software21:05 AI skepticism vs long-term adoption curve22:30 AI capex, cash flow, and economic layering25:00 Why this AI cycle is more stable than dot-com27:00 Cash-funded investment vs debt-driven bubbles29:25 Bull market vs bear market signals today31:00 Consumer confidence as a contrarian indicator33:30 The role of sentiment and upside surprises34:25 The JP Morgan collar and market structure37:00 Trading probabilities vs certainty39:00 How options flows act as market “magnets”41:05 Comparing AI infrastructure to fiber buildout44:30 Utilization and demand in AI vs dot-com47:00 Network effects and scaling AI adoption01:09:30 Final thoughts and wrap-up
- Apr 5, 20261h 6m
The 1 in 18,900 Bet | Practical Lessons from Michael Maboussin, Katie Stockton, Ben Hunt, Kuppy and Aahan Menon
This episode of Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together the most important ideas from a packed week of interviews, covering AI and base rates, the Magnificent Seven, commodities, macro risks, and practical investing frameworks. Jack Forehand and Kai Wu break down key clips from Michael Mauboussin, Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, Ben Hunt, Katie Stockton, and Aahan Menon to extract timeless lessons investors can apply across different market environments.The conversation moves from AI expectations and economic profit to geopolitical “common knowledge” moments, commodity dynamics, trend following, and the importance of thinking in probabilities and time horizons.Topics Covered:Why OpenAI’s growth expectations are historically unprecedented and what base rates actually tell usHow base rates should guide expectations without limiting outlier outcomes like AmazonWhy large companies are growing faster today and the role of intangible assets and softwareThe concentration of economic profit in the Magnificent Seven and what it implies for valuationsWhy long-term time horizons create a structural edge in investingThe concept of “common knowledge” and how it reshapes markets during geopolitical eventsWhere AI value will accrue: companies vs consumers vs suppliersWhy commodities behave differently from stocks and bonds during supply shocksHow trend following works and why commodities are uniquely suited to itWhy investing is a probabilities game and how to manage uncertainty and position sizingHow technical indicators like the 200-day moving average should actually be usedTimestamps:00:00 Intro and overview of Weekly Wrap format00:02:05 Michael Mauboussin on OpenAI growth and base rates00:06:18 Why base rates matter but don’t define outcomes00:09:50 Why large companies are growing faster than history suggests00:14:58 Kuppy on time horizons and avoiding short-term noise00:19:15 Ben Hunt on “common knowledge” and the Strait of Hormuz00:24:13 AI value accrual and consumer surplus vs company profits00:28:10 Commodities, backwardation, and why price trends differ from equities00:32:45 Trend following and why commodities exhibit stronger trends00:34:41 Investing as a game of probabilities and decision-making under uncertainty00:41:58 Katie Stockton on the 200-day moving average and technical signals00:46:20 Breadth, trend signals, and how technicals inform risk management00:50:30 Position sizing, uncertainty, and diversification frameworks00:55:40 Revisiting the Magnificent Seven and intangible assets00:59:00 Trend following frameworks and portfolio constructionCheck out the full episode and all of our interviews from this week on the Excess Returns YouTube channel and podcast platforms.
- Mar 29, 20261h 7m
The Shock No One Can Price | The Weekly Wrap - 3/29/2026
This episode of Excess Returns Weekly Recap breaks down one of the most complex market environments in recent memory, from the global oil shock and its economic ripple effects to base rates, AI-driven productivity, and private credit risks. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler synthesize insights from Bob Elliott, Chris Mayer, Robert, and Larry Swedroe to help investors understand what matters, what’s being mispriced, and where conviction should (and shouldn’t) exist.Topics covered:How oil supply shocks translate into inflation and reduced consumer spendingWhy oil demand is inelastic and creates mechanical economic slowdownsThe difference between consumer surplus and true productivity gains from AIWhy better tools don’t necessarily translate into higher earningsUnderstanding base rates and when it makes sense to bet against themHow extreme outliers drive market returns and portfolio constructionSurvivorship bias vs studying exceptional businesses the right wayPrivate credit risks, liquidity mechanisms, and media-driven narrativesWhy redemption fears in private credit may be overstatedThe importance of intellectual humility in macro investingWhy investors often have no edge in geopolitical forecastingIdentifying cross-asset mispricings instead of predicting outcomesHow AI may increase competition but not necessarily create more winnersThe persistence of winner-take-all dynamics across technological shiftsHow to think about conviction, uncertainty, and portfolio positioning in volatile environmentsTimestamps:00:00 Oil shock impact on consumer spending and inflation mechanics00:01:06 Why this market environment is unusually confusing for investors00:02:22 How oil supply shocks translate into price spikes and inflation00:05:20 The real-world impact of higher energy costs on household spending00:10:00 Base rates vs extreme outcomes in investing00:11:39 Survivorship bias and what investors misunderstand about outliers00:18:03 Private credit redemption risks and liquidity dynamics explained00:23:00 Media narratives vs actual cash flows in private credit funds00:27:11 AI productivity vs consumer surplus and why it matters00:30:26 Why better tools don’t always lead to higher earnings00:33:37 How to use base rates alongside conviction in investing decisions00:38:58 Why investors have no edge in predicting geopolitical outcomes00:41:00 Cross-asset signals and what markets may be mispricing00:45:12 How AI could reshape competition but not change winner dynamics00:47:57 When base rates break and how technological shifts reset expectations
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About Two Quants and a Financial Planner
Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.
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