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Two Quants and a Financial Planner: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Excess Returns
Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.
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- Today44 min
AI Stocks Cracked. Margins Could Be Peaking. So Why Is a Liquidity Expert Watching the Debt Wall?
AI revenue has to catch up with data center spending. Households have kept spending faster than their wages grow. In this Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler ask what happens if stock gains and easy refinancing can no longer help close those gaps.Michael Howell explains why investors can feel a squeeze even while the global pool of money is still growing. Bob Elliott puts a number on the revenue AI labs would need to justify the buildout, while Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson look at the same bet from the chipmakers’ side. Intel beat earnings expectations and its shares still fell. What kind of growth had investors already paid for?John Davi brings the question back to the portfolio. An investor can trim exposure to the biggest stocks and still wind up with a sector bet they never intended. Aahan Menon brings it home to the household budget, where rising stock and home values have helped consumers spend more of each paycheck.Topics covered:- Michael Howell on why the pace of global liquidity growth matters for stocks- Bob Elliott on the gap between AI labs’ revenue and the sales needed to pay for new capacity- Dave Nadig on what Intel’s selloff after an earnings beat says about expectations- Cameron Dawson on why chip earnings can peak even if data center spending keeps rising- John Davi on pairing equal stock weights with sector controls to manage concentration- Aahan Menon on how a lower saving rate has helped consumption outgrow wages- Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler on how a stock decline could reach household spending- Michael Howell on why a borrower’s ability to refinance can matter more than the interest rateWatch the full conversations:Michael Howell on the liquidity cycle and why he’s watching bondshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDHm2I2QwRABob Elliott and Aahan Menon on the AI revenue gap and what sustains consumer spendinghttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp5xnh4COXgCameron Dawson and Dave Nadig on the earnings expectations built into chip stockshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57Ko8K0XOhoJohn Davi on how he reduces portfolio risk when a few stocks dominate the indexhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJDNXP-XA_oChapters:00:00 Michael Howell on slowing liquidity and the AI trade08:58 Bob Elliott on the revenue AI labs need to earn13:55 Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson on peak chip earnings20:28 John Davi on equal weighting and unintended sector bets27:32 Aahan Menon on spending, wages and the saving rate35:09 Michael Howell on the debt refinancing cycle40:10 What happens when a borrower can’t roll over a loan?Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- 1 weeks ago48 min
Half the S&P Is One AI Trade. This Isn’t 1999. What If the Bubble Is in the Safe Stocks?
Earnings growth, hidden AI exposure, and investor behavior can tell very different stories about the same portfolio. This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap explores why getting the market call right is only part of earning the return.Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler revisit conversations with Jay Hatfield, Kai Wu, Ted Mortonson, and Daniel Crosby. They examine how stronger earnings can offset lower valuation multiples, why index funds may carry more AI exposure than investors realize, and how a winning fund can still leave its investors losing money. The discussion also weighs the AI buildout against dot-com comparisons and separates stock selection from the factor bets inside a portfolio.Topics covered:- Jay Hatfield on reaching an S&P 500 target with a different mix of earnings and valuation multiples- Why rising stock prices can coexist with higher rates and worrying headlines- Kai Wu on the AI infrastructure exposure hidden inside the S&P 500- Ted Mortonson on how today's AI demand differs from the dot-com buildout- Why real technological progress does not settle the question of investment returns- Daniel Crosby on a fund that earned roughly 18.5% annually while its average investor lost money- Building a portfolio you can hold through volatility and evaluating anxiety-adjusted returns- Jay Hatfield's "reverse bubble" argument and the role of growth in judging valuations- Kai Wu's ARK analysis: separating stock-picking results from small-company, growth, and profitability exposures- Looking through fund labels to find overlap and meaningful diversificationChapters:00:00 Introduction and Jay Hatfield's market forecast06:42 Earnings growth versus valuation multiples10:45 Kai Wu on hidden AI exposure in index funds17:45 Ted Mortonson on AI versus the dot-com cycle22:07 AI adoption, expectations, and investment returns27:40 Daniel Crosby on fund returns versus investor returns34:01 Jay Hatfield's reverse bubble and growth-adjusted valuations41:46 Kai Wu on ARK, factor exposure, and diversification46:34 Closing thoughts and viewer commentsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- 2 weeks ago49 min
The Panic Is in CoreWeave's Debt. The Risk Is in AI Revenue. What Is Your Portfolio Betting On?
AI financing risks, index-driven buying, and opportunities beyond US tech take center stage in this week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler explore how investors can distinguish a stock-market setback from a financial crisis—and build portfolios that account for more than one possible future.Featuring clips from Andy Constan, Rob Arnott, Paisley Nardini, Colin McQueen, and Brian Portnoy, the discussion connects CoreWeave's funding challenges with the broader question of whether AI can deliver on investors' expectations. It also examines the forces behind index additions, the power infrastructure AI needs, the case for international value, and why experienced investors sometimes choose cash and peace of mind over maximizing returns.Topics covered:- Andy Constan on why AI stocks could suffer without triggering a financial crisis- Why the eventual return on AI spending matters for the value of today's infrastructure- Rob Arnott's SpaceX thesis and how anticipated index buying can create opportunities- Paisley Nardini on under-owned real assets, energy, and infrastructure investment- Looking beyond AI labels to the businesses receiving actual spending- Colin McQueen on international valuations, improving earnings, and catalysts for value- Why long-term international diversification differs from protection in a market crash- Brian Portnoy on cash reserves, career risk, and portfolios that help investors sleep at night- Andy Constan's concerns about financing needs, earnings expectations, and higher long-term rates- Testing both bullish and bearish arguments before deciding how to position a portfolioChapters:00:00 Introduction and Andy Constan on CoreWeave risk08:51 Rob Arnott on SpaceX and index buying16:50 Paisley Nardini on energy and AI infrastructure22:48 Colin McQueen on international value opportunities27:46 Long-term diversification versus crash protection32:37 Brian Portnoy on cash, career risk, and peace of mind38:45 Andy Constan's bear case: funding, earnings, and rates45:03 Challenging your thesis and considering both tailsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- 3 weeks ago43 min
Tech Has Led for 20 Years. Bonds Yield Over 5%. What If Your Biggest Risk Is What You Don’t Own?
AI financing, tech-stock complacency, and the return of bonds to the portfolio conversation take center stage in this week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap. The question connecting them: how much pain could investors face before rate cuts or government support arrive?Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler revisit conversations with Barry Ritholtz, Jim Paulsen, and Ben Hunt to explore the risks and opportunities surrounding the AI boom. They discuss whether massive investment can translate into lasting returns, who bears the cost of rising electricity demand, and why confidence in an eventual rescue can leave investors overlooking the losses that come first.Topics covered:Barry Ritholtz on AI financing, IPO valuations, and data-center obsolescence riskWhy real demand for AI does not settle the question of investment returnsJim Paulsen on two decades of tech outperformance and investor complacencyThe difference between relative outperformance and recovering from a major drawdownBen Hunt on competition for electricity and the potential cost to consumersBarry Ritholtz on the renewed case for high-quality bonds without calling a market bottomJim Paulsen on why rate cuts can coincide with falling stock pricesBen Hunt on government backstops, alternative asset managers, and the limits of “too big to fail”The potential long-term consequences of repeated rescues for inflation and inequalityTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and the AI financing question09:24 Jim Paulsen on tech outperformance and complacency18:11 Ben Hunt on who pays for AI’s power demands24:02 Barry Ritholtz on the case for bonds30:13 Jim Paulsen on rate cuts and falling stocks36:19 Ben Hunt on the pain before an AI backstop40:38 The long-term costs of repeated rescues Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- 4 weeks ago46 min
The S&P Hit a Record. 73% of Stocks Are Below Their 50-Day. What Is Your Index Fund Betting On?
Strong earnings are supporting the rally, but narrow leadership is changing what investors own through an index fund. This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap explores the tension between healthy business results, growing concentration, and the risks of assuming yesterday's winners will keep leading.Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler connect insights from Ed Yardeni, Chris Davis, Robert Hagstrom, Katie Stockton, and Tom Maher. We discuss why weak breadth alone isn't a sell signal, what rising bond yields might be telling us, where small-cap earnings could improve, and how to balance letting winners run with managing portfolio risk.Topics covered:Ed Yardeni's "fabulous earnings momentum" and the forces supporting corporate profitsWhy rising earnings can coexist with pressure on stock valuationsChris Davis on passive investing, momentum, and concentration inside index fundsKatie Stockton on why narrow leadership alone doesn't invalidate a bull marketWhy broader participation isn't automatically good news for stock pricesEd Yardeni on rising yields, stronger growth, and the return of the bond vigilantesTom Maher on improving small-cap earnings, reshoring, and AI infrastructure spendingWhy small-cap opportunities still require attention to profitability and business qualityRobert Hagstrom on shrinking margins of safety, position limits, and trimming winnersThe regret on both sides of selling and why portfolio responsibilities matterTimestamps:00:00 Opening conversation and this week's connections04:05 Ed Yardeni: earnings momentum supports the rally11:48 Chris Davis: index concentration and momentum18:17 Katie Stockton: what weak breadth does and doesn't mean23:50 Ed Yardeni: rising yields and bond vigilantes30:24 Tom Maher: the case for small caps beyond big tech35:08 Small-cap dispersion, fundamentals, and index quality39:18 Robert Hagstrom: trimming winners and margin of safety43:27 Selling regret and the responsibilities of managing money Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- Oct 5, 202648 min
Diesel is Spiking. The Market Has the AI Losers Wrong | Are You Betting Too Big?
Finding a good investment and knowing how much to put into it are different problems. This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap connects overlooked AI opportunities, the risks of concentrated portfolios, and the position-sizing mistakes that can turn favorable odds into losses.Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler revisit conversations with Michael Baron, Eric Pachman and Kris Abdelmessih. Michael Baron explains why some apparent AI losers may have valuable data advantages and how his firm manages investments as they become large positions. Eric Pachman traces diesel costs into consumer inflation and shares a grocery-price study that challenged his own assumptions. Kris Abdelmessih explains why surviving long enough to benefit from an edge depends on how much you bet.Topics covered:Michael Baron on AI opportunities beyond the Magnificent SevenWhy proprietary data may protect software companies from disruptionEric Pachman on diesel prices, freight surcharges and the path into CPIWhy refinery constraints and crude-oil differences matter for fuel supplyKris Abdelmessih on how favorable odds can still lead to ruinMichael Baron on letting winners run while managing leverage and portfolio correlationsEric Pachman's comparison of Kroger prices with the government's food basketWhy national averages can differ from your household's inflation experienceKris Abdelmessih on fractional Kelly and uncertainty about your true edgeApplying position-sizing lessons to investing, gambling and insurance decisionsWatch the full interviews:Michael Baron: AI beneficiaries, Tesla, SpaceX and managing concentrated growth portfolioshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVCgmorfy50Eric Pachman: What headline economic data misses about jobs, diesel costs and grocery priceshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bXUBAPRvr0Kris Abdelmessih: The Kelly Criterion, bet sizing and staying in the gamehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlTPdaT-X6UChapters:00:00 Introduction and Michael Baron on overlooked AI winners09:24 Eric Pachman on diesel costs and inflation17:28 Kris Abdelmessih on good odds and bad bet sizing22:44 Michael Baron on concentration and letting winners run28:35 Eric Pachman tests grocery prices against CPI33:33 Your household's inflation versus the headline number37:41 Kris Abdelmessih on why investors use fractional Kelly43:39 Being honest about your edge and applying Kelly in real lifeLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- Sep 28, 202643 min
Rates Are Spiking. The S&P Is One Big AI Bet. What If Your Biggest Risk Is What You Don't Own?
Do you understand the risks in your portfolio, or just the labels on your investments? This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap explores how index concentration, changing bond yields, and lessons from great investors can challenge the assumptions behind your investing decisions.Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler revisit conversations with Andy Constan, Jason Hsu, Jack Raines, and Gary Mishuris. They discuss what Treasury buybacks can actually accomplish, why owning the S&P 500 may leave you exposed to a single dominant theme, what small losses can teach investors, and why learning from Warren Buffett requires more than copying him. They also explore China's energy infrastructure and its role in the AI race.Topics covered:Andy Constan on why growth and inflation expectations matter more for long-term rates than Treasury buybacksHow policy announcements can influence markets before policymakers actJason Hsu on AI concentration and the changing risks inside the S&P 500Why diversification requires looking beyond the number of stocks you ownJack Raines on experiencing losses while the stakes are manageableSeparating a small trading account from a long-term investment planGary Mishuris on understanding, applying, and adapting the lessons of great investorsWhy copying Warren Buffett's approach may overlook your own temperament and circumstancesAndy Constan on bonds' return potential relative to cash and their role in a diversified portfolioJason Hsu on China's energy supply, electricity grid, and advantages in powering AIChapters:00:00 Introduction and Andy Constan on Treasury buybacks11:35 Jason Hsu on the risks hiding in the S&P 50017:59 Jack Raines on learning from losses23:37 Gary Mishuris on why copying Warren Buffett falls short29:19 Andy Constan on how the case for bonds has changed36:18 Jason Hsu on China's energy advantage in AI41:09 Energy innovation and what could change nextLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- Sep 21, 202648 min
The "Permabear" Holds 50% Stocks. 7 Sectors Barely Grew. What If Stocks Stop Carrying the Economy?
Are strong earnings and resilient consumer spending hiding a weaker economy underneath? In this Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler explore why that disconnect matters for stocks, bonds, and the risks investors take in their portfolios.Featuring highlights from David Rosenberg, Jim Paulsen, Jenny Johnson, Bob Pozen, and Alex Edmans in conversation with Kai Wu, this week's discussion looks beyond headline numbers and familiar investing labels. From David Rosenberg's case for bonds to the lessons of Peter Lynch and Costco, the focus is on understanding what actually drives returns.Topics covered:- Why David Rosenberg is considering more bond duration and sees potential for a Treasury short-covering rally.- How David Rosenberg's 50% stock allocation challenges the "permabear" label.- Jim Paulsen's three-way earnings divide: technology, commodity-linked businesses, and the rest of the S&P 500.- What could happen if AI spending and higher oil prices stop carrying earnings growth.- Jenny Johnson's case for private-market access, and the hosts' concerns about retail investors becoming exit liquidity.- Why liquidity needs and financial advice matter when investing in private assets.- Bob Pozen's lessons from Peter Lynch: translating world events into company insights and buying when others retreat.- How different investment vehicles shaped Peter Lynch's and Warren Buffett's strategies.- Alex Edmans' research on employee satisfaction, Costco, and why valuable intangible assets may be overlooked.- David Rosenberg's warning about spending supported by lower savings, credit cards, and stock-market wealth, and why the hosts see concern rather than an immediate recession signal.Timestamps:00:00 Welcome and this week's investing highlights06:32 David Rosenberg's portfolio beyond the permabear label11:22 Jim Paulsen: what headline earnings hide17:45 Jenny Johnson: private markets and exit liquidity25:33 Bob Pozen on Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett30:29 Alex Edmans: Costco and employee satisfaction37:52 David Rosenberg: what is sustaining consumer spending?45:55 Why volatility attracts financial-media viewersLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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About Two Quants and a Financial Planner
Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.
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