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Sound Investing: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Paul Merriman
Weekly podcasts with Paul Merriman. Strategic planning for investing at every stage of life.
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- 6 days ago57 min
Paul & Chris Tackle 10 of your Investing Questions
Paul and Chris answer 10 listener questions in one hour — covering asset allocation, investor behavior, funds, indexes, and fund management. They also dig into Daryl Bahls' hot-off-the-press alternative portfolio analysis.CHAPTERS00:00 — Intro01:11 — Funds vs. their indexes06:04 — Which asset can I drop?10:50 — Buy and hold for a lifetime?16:04 — Tracking errors20:24 — How many years to trust a strategy?27:05 — The impact of 10% cash28:18 — What's a "good enough" return?31:57 — The new worldwide 4-fund portfolio42:29 — Too old for small-cap value?44:56 — Avantis and DFA48:27 — AVES for emerging markets value54:04 — OutroLINKS & FILESSound Investing Quilt ChartsCallan Periodic Table of Investment ReturnsTwo Funds for Life CalculatorLifetime Investment CalculatorDaryl's 4-Fund Portfolio Analysis (WW 4-Fund)Other Fine Tuning Tables (50/50)2FFL Fine Tuning Table — AllocationsWatch Video Here
- 1 weeks ago1h 34m
Mike Piper- Bainbridge Financial Literacy Series 2026
In Session 3 of the 2026 Bainbridge Community Foundation Spring Financial Education Series, Paul sits down with Mike Piper — CPA, Personal Financial Specialist, and the voice behind the Oblivious Investor blog and the free Open Social Security calculator — for one of the warmest, most practical conversations of the series. Mike has a rare gift: taking the topics that intimidate most investors and making them feel obvious. Over the course of the hour, he and Paul work through the handful of decisions that genuinely shape a retirement.Mike opens with a quietly radical idea: if you've prepared well, "more than enough" isn't the exception — it's the most likely outcome. Because we have to plan for long lifespans, poor markets, and high medical costs that usually don't all come to pass, most disciplined savers end up with leftovers. From there, he explains which dollars to spend first each year, how age and capital gains should steer whether you draw from taxable or retirement accounts, and why the step-up in basis matters more than most people realize.The conversation turns to the human side of money, too — how to talk a couple through it when one spouse is aggressive and the other can't stand the thought of the stock market, why both positions are almost always driven by fear, and how framing the trade-offs around the people you love often brings them closer together. Mike and Paul also tackle the spendthrift-child dilemma, the case for matching a young person's Roth IRA, and why small gifts early can dwarf an inheritance received at 70.On Social Security, Mike makes the point that most people get the risk exactly backwards: delaying benefits isn't a gamble — it's insurance against the scary scenario of living a very long time. He walks through what really happens if Congress does nothing before the trust fund shortfall around 2033 (hint: the program doesn't disappear), and the range of fixes on the table. Throughout, both men return to the same theme — simple, low-cost, broadly diversified portfolios keep beating the clever alternatives, and the Bessembinder research helps explain why.Stick around for the closing exchange on using AI to learn from the "Truth Tellers" — and Mike's cautionary tale about a chatbot that invented an entire tax-code provision, word for word and completely convincingly, that simply does not exist.LINKS:Mike Piper's blog — obliviousinvestor.comOpen Social Security — opensocialsecurity.comMike's books on Amazon — https://bit.ly/49BQugdOblivious Investor — https://bit.ly/4oeIacsWe're Talking Millions! (free PDF and audio) — https://www.paulmerriman.com/free-booksIf You Can by Bill Bernstein (free PDF) — https://www.paulmerriman.com/free-booksPlanVision — Mark Zoril — planvisionmn.comThe Bessembinder study — "Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?" https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/hendrik-bessembinder-do-stocks-outperform-treasury-billsWatch the Video- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bB2ccYRLSOI&feature=youtu.be
- 2 weeks ago45 min
Automating Your Portfolio: M1 Finance vs. Fidelity Basket Portfolios
In the final episode of the 2026 Boot Camp series, Paul Merriman sits down with Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls to tackle the last fork in the road every investor faces: how to and how much automation to use. After all the boot camp decisions — stocks versus bonds, which equity asset classes, how much fixed income, how to handle contributions and withdrawals — the final question is how much of the day-to-day management you should hand off to a tool, and which tool is right for you.Chris walks through how M1 Finance “pies” let buy-and-hold investors put their portfolios on autopilot: automated contributions, on-the-fly rebalancing as new money comes in, fractional shares, and one-button rebalancing. He explains the pre-configured Merriman portfolios — the Ultimate Buy and Hold, Worldwide and US Four-Fund, All Value, All Small Cap Value, and the Aggressive Target Date glide path in five-year increments — and an important limitation: once you grab a pie, there’s no live link back to the source, so website updates won’t change your account.Paul then makes the case for Fidelity’s Basket Portfolios as an alternative, especially for anyone uneasy about moving large sums to a younger company. He covers the flat $4.99-per-month fee regardless of account size, eligible account types, the TFLO short-term Treasury workaround for holding cash, and why Fidelity may fit investors already in the Fidelity ecosystem. The team compares trading windows, account minimums and how each firm counts the $10,000 threshold, and Daryl shares that M1 has grown from about $1 billion in 2020 to roughly $12.5 billion in assets under management.The conversation closes with practical guidance on mixing and matching Sound Investing portfolios, the question everyone’s asking — “how long do I have to wait for small cap value?” — a reminder not to flail or chase recent performance, why the 10-fund Ultimate Buy and Hold strategy still stands, and a clear explanation of the move from AVUS to AVLC and where AVSC fits.CHAPTERS00:00 - Intro03:10 - M1 Finance13:45 - Fidelity Baskets24:27 - Portfolio Combos29:55 - When to Change Allocations42:44 - AVLC vs. AVUS45:15 - OutroLINKS:Sound Investing Portfolio PiesM1 Finance Pie Tutorial (Mobile App)M1 Finance Pie Tutorial (Web Interface)
- 3 weeks ago1h 10m
Bill Bernstein: 50 Years of Investing Wisdom
In this interview from the 2026 Bainbridge Community Foundation Annual Financial Education Series, Paul sits down with Bill Bernstein — neurologist, financial historian, and author of The Four Pillars of Investing and If You Can — for a wide-ranging conversation drawn from 50-plus years of investing experience.Bill explains why you're only rewarded for taking risk in well-regulated markets (and why crypto doesn't qualify), how today's market echoes the late 1990s, why the "reverse glide path" makes sense the older you get, and what the Bessembinder research really tells us about the cost of trying to pick winners. Paul and Bill also debate withdrawal strategies, the case against long bonds, and whether tilted small-value investing still works once "the bozos know about it."A masterclass in evidence-based investing from one of the most respected voices in the field.CHAPTERS00:00 Intro from Matt Longmire, Bainbridge Community Foundation02:50 Welcoming Bill Bernstein03:50 Why The Four Pillars of Investing belongs on every DIY investor's shelf05:50 Risk vs. reward — and why Bitcoin doesn't qualify08:30 How many asset classes do you really need?11:50 Where today's market resembles the late 1990s13:40 Are REITs still worth holding?15:50 The case for automating everything19:45 Why retirees need to fear sequence-of-returns risk21:30 Paul's 5% rule vs. the 4% rule25:30 The two-bucket theory and the reverse glide path27:30 Prediction markets, gambling, and "being the house"32:00 The sociological signs of a bubble35:00 Speculation vs. gambling — gold's real return40:00 The Bessembinder study: why 4% of stocks make most of the returns46:00 Why rich people plan three generations ahead49:00 Audience Q&A58:30 Tilted index funds (DFA, Avantis) — worth it?01:03:50 The future of Social Security01:07:00 Closing thoughts and book recommendationsLINKS:The Four Pillars of Investing — Bill Bernstein (2nd ed., 2023)If You Can — Free PDF from Bill BernsteinThe Bessembinder Study — "Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?"Bainbridge Community FoundationBen Carlson's New Book on Risk and Reward
- May 13, 20261h 7m
Boot Camp #9 - 2 Funds for Life and Target-Date Funds
Chris and Paul explain what target-date funds are and do, and how to augment them with some small-cap value to get the broad diversification benefits of the other Sound Investing portfolios. They describe several approaches and tools investors can use to determine what might be best for them.CHAPTERS00:00 Intro03:03 Target-Date Funds07:00 Glide Paths15:17 TDF Backtesting19:55 TDF Weaknesses26:20 "Easy" 2FFL34:46 "Moderate 2FFL37:48 "Aggressive" 2FFL41:00 Customizer52:15 Calculator61:07 Books 66:00 Outro LINKS:Wharton Target Date Funds & Portfolio Choice in 401(k) PlansMorningstar “2026 Target-Date Fund Landscape” 2 Funds for Life Fine Tuning Tables- https://irp.cdn-website.com/6b78c197/files/uploaded/2026+Target-Date+Fund+and+2FFL+%282%29.pdf
- May 6, 20261h 0m
Q&A With Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls: Thinking Through Your Portfolio Choices
Paul sits down with Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls for the first Q&A session in months — and this one is built around the questions readers and listeners ask most often. Chris and Daryl share what they're working on next (Best-in-Class ETF updates, Target Date Fund work, telltale charts, risk-adjusted return analysis), Paul talks about a smarter way to use AI for the questions outside our wheelhouse, and the team works through six reader questions about portfolio design — from combining model portfolios to choosing between fund families.If you've ever wondered whether your portfolio is "right," this conversation will help you think about it the way Chris and Daryl do.8:30 — Should I combine the Worldwide Four Fund, U.S. Four Fund, and Worldwide All Value with a small cap value tilt?16:00 — How do I read the Sound Investing tables to compare portfolios?30:30 — Worldwide All Small Cap Value vs. the U.S. Two Fund — which is better?38:15 — My Vanguard Four Fund uses VOO, VTV, VB, and VBR — am I using the right ETFs?41:30 — How do Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, DFA, and Avantis compare on size and value exposure?46:30 — How do I get help with Merriman portfolios when I need it?Table B2 Table H2 Fine Tuning Tables Portfolio ConfiguratorYou'll get the full answers, the data behind them, and Chris and Daryl's reasoning by watching or listening.Watch the video here- https://youtu.be/BdTNOkALpuQ
- Apr 29, 202659 min
2026 Best in Class ETF Portfolios
Paul and Chris introduce the new Avantis and DFA Best-in-Class fund family recommendations and talk about the shift away from evaluating and recommending à la carte choices from multiple fund providers. They emphasize that the quality and breadth of the offerings from Avantis and DFAhave reached a point where it's better and more sustainable to recommend these fund families than to continually change recommendations among funds that are increasingly close unexpected performance.Best in Class ETF recommendations https://www.paulmerriman.com/best-in-class-recommendationsPortfolio Configurator https://lookerstudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/a941a5d4-0929-45ea-b22e-3bb82dc334ff/page/99wxc?s=hqmha3-AK5k
- Apr 22, 20261h 53m
Christine Benz: Practical Retirement Planning from Morningstar's Top Expert
This special two-part session opens with Paul Merriman solo — paying tribute to Tim Ranzetta of Next Generation Personal Finance, sharing the latest numbers on state-mandated financial literacy, and walking through Daryl Bahls' quilt charts to show annual earnings invested in the S&P 500, large-cap value, small-cap blend, and small-cap value since 1928.Then Paul sits down with Christine Benz — Morningstar's Director of Personal Finance and Retirement Planning, and author of How to Retire: 20 Lessons for a Happy, Successful, and Wealthy Retirement — for a wide-ranging conversation on how to actually make a retirement portfolio last.Christine lays out her five-step plan for anyone retiring in 2030 or 2035: turbocharge savings, rethink household spending, build seven to ten years of "safer assets" for portfolio withdrawals, diversify globally, and use TIPS to protect purchasing power. She and Paul dig into how to structure fixed income (short, intermediate, TIPS), why she's cooler on REITs than she used to be, when a simple income annuity makes sense, and why alternatives rarely earn their keep.They also cover performance-chasing the S&P 500, balanced funds vs. building your own portfolio (including Paul's Wellesley/Wellington pairing for hands-off investors), how AI is starting to change the financial advice landscape, and the honest answer to "have you planned out to the day you die?" — even from a Morningstar executive.The audience Q&A covers bonds vs. T-bills, down-payment savings, the four-fund portfolio, Vanguard asset allocation for retirees, tax-efficient withdrawal sequencing, TIAA annuities, managed futures, and gold.Part of the Spring Financial Education Series hosted by the Bainbridge Community Foundation in partnership with the Merriman Financial Education Foundation.Coming up in this series: Mike Piper (April 21) and Bill Bernstein (April 28).🔗 LINKS & RESOURCES:📖 How to Retire — Christine Benz🎙️ The Long View Podcast🌐 https://www.morningstar.com/people/christine-benz📘 https://www.ngpf.org🌐 https://paulmerriman.comTIMESTAMPS:📚 PART 1 — Paul Merriman Solo0:00–Welcome from Matt Longmire2:55–Paul Merriman intro3:50–Tim Ranzetta & NGPF7:00–Financial literacy stats9:30–Why NGPF is free10:30–Ben Carlson & oil shocks13:50–Risk and Reward preview14:40–Quilt charts explained17:00–$100 since 192820:00–Quintile rankings22:30–Four-fund consistency24:00–Volatility discussion25:30–Best/worst decades🎙️ PART 2 — Christine Benz Interview27:00–Christine joins29:00–Retirement mindset31:00–Planning for 2030/203532:30–Boosting savings33:30–Lifestyle adjustments35:00–7–10 years safer assets38:00–Bond strategy40:00–Risk tiers (cash → bonds)42:00–Equity allocation44:30–TIPS importance48:00–Buy-and-hold vs timing50:00–Handling macro fears52:30–Top risks54:00–Annuities overview56:00–SPIAs & DIAs58:30–Income psychology1:02:00–More resources1:04:00–Alternatives critique1:07:30–401(k) concerns1:10:00–Investor gap1:12:00–Christine’s planQ&A:1:15:00–Bonds vs T-bills1:20:00–$95k down payment1:22:00–Four-fund portfolios1:25:00–FXAIX vs VOO1:26:00–Model portfolios1:29:00–Balanced funds1:33:00–Tax-managed funds1:34:00–Active vs passive1:39:00–Bond ETFs1:41:00–TIAA annuities1:42:30–Withdrawal strategy1:44:00–AI investing1:46:00–Future of advice1:50:00–Gold & alternatives1:52:00–Closing thoughts1:53:00–Next episodeWatch video here
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