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by Excess Returns
Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more.
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- Today55 min
Mike Green on Passive Flows, Market Concentration and What Could Change the Cycle
Mike Green explains how passive investing is reshaping stock prices, market concentration, and the way investors build portfolios. His argument: understanding which funds receive money—and how they allocate it—is increasingly essential to understanding the stocks those funds own.The founder of Tier1 Alpha Asset Management joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to connect retirement contributions, target-date funds, and index construction to the buying pressure behind the market's largest companies. He explains why he believes giant IPOs benefit from index mechanics, why liquidity does not keep pace with market capitalization, and how fund flows may help explain the behavior of value, size, and momentum.Green also walks through the investment framework he is building at Tier1: tracking thousands of funds, estimating their impact on individual securities, and making small portfolio tilts to account for those flows. The conversation explores what could interrupt retirement-driven buying, where fundamental analysis still matters, and how his planned strategies incorporate managed futures for diversification.Topics covered:- Why Mike Green thinks fund selection is increasingly shaping security prices- Why low-float index inclusions can create demand for giant IPOs- Why giant IPOs and smaller offerings can face very different sources of demand- Retirement contributions, target-date allocations, and the employment catalyst that could change flows- How passive flows may help explain value, size, and momentum-factor behavior- Why liquidity does not grow in proportion to market capitalization- Tier1's approach to tracking fund flows and making small portfolio tilts- Where discounted cash flow analysis fits in a market shaped by mechanical buying- Tracking error, managed futures, and Tier1's planned portfolio strategies- What employment trends could mean for the retirement contributions supporting passive flowsChapters:00:00 Mike Green on the election and giant IPOs05:44 IPO demand, passive buying, and weakening employment11:18 Valuation in a market shaped by flows16:46 Passive flows, value, and momentum21:27 Tracking fund flows and building portfolio tilts26:31 Inflation, energy bottlenecks, and pricing power30:50 AI investment returns and the fiber-optic analogy35:33 Fed policy, market rules, and Tier1's planned strategies43:18 The K-shaped economy, AI jobs, and gig work48:00 Political risks, optimism, and human agency53:32 Closing thoughts and where to follow Mike GreenTier1 Alpha Asset Managementhttps://www.t1acapital.com/Mike Green on Xhttps://x.com/profplum99Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- Yesterday55 min
Spending Is Up 7%. Paychecks Are Up 3%. What Happens When Stocks Stop Paying the Difference?
Bob Elliott and Aahan Menon examine how stock-market wealth is helping consumers spend faster than their paychecks grow—and what that means for corporate profits if stocks stop rising.Elliott, co-founder of Unlimited, and Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, join Matt Zeigler to connect household spending, AI investment, and the earnings expectations built into markets. They discuss where their growth outlooks differ, why persistent inflation complicates the Fed's choices, and how bonds can look attractive against stocks while still looking unattractive against cash.The conversation also explores whether AI is producing the economy-wide gains needed to justify its investment boom, how forward spending commitments could reverse, and why both guests distinguish those risks from a repeat of the 2008 credit crisis.Topics covered:- What the midterm election could change for fiscal policy and data-center construction- Oil and AI as the competing forces behind inflation and growth expectations- Bob Elliott's distinction between peak growth and peak pricing of growth- How household wealth and drawing down savings support consumer spending- Aahan Menon on wages, workforce participation, immigration, and demographics- Why both guests think central banks are reluctant to deliver tighter policy- Bonds versus stocks, bonds versus cash, and Aahan Menon's inflation-nowcast rule- Bob Elliott's test for AI: accelerating productivity and revenue beyond the technology sector- How business investment and household spending feed corporate profits- Why AI commitments could weaken spending and earnings without a systemic credit crisisChapters:00:00 Bob Elliott and Aahan Menon on the election04:25 Oil, AI, and the market's growth expectations09:25 Peak growth pricing and the consumer spending gap15:45 Household wealth, wages, and the labor market20:08 The Fed's response to persistent inflation24:12 Bonds versus stocks and bonds versus cash30:28 Inflation nowcasts and the test for AI productivity37:05 AI revenue expectations and the sources of profits43:38 Credit risks and AI's forward spending commitments50:38 Where Bob Elliott and Aahan Menon disagreeLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- 2 days ago1h 0m
The Liquidity Cycle Has Turned | Michael Howell on What It Means for Investors
Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital explains why slowing global liquidity could challenge stocks even as AI earnings remain strong. His concern is a growing competition for funding: money is flowing into real-world investment just as a huge wave of existing debt needs refinancing.With Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, Howell walks through his liquidity cycle, the role of collateral and repo markets, and why he believes government bonds deserve another look. He also discusses the difference between declining liquidity growth and an outright contraction, the risks of financing the AI buildout, and how China's debt problems could shape the longer-term outlook for gold.Topics covered:- How Michael Howell measures global liquidity as the financial system's capacity to provide funding- Why a strong real economy can compete with financial markets for money- The four phases of the liquidity cycle and the shift from speculation toward turbulence- Why bank reserves, Treasury issuance, and collateral volatility matter beyond the Fed's policy rate- How AI earnings have given technology stocks an unusual second wind late in the cycle- The debt maturity wall and why Michael Howell watches debt relative to liquidity- How refinancing stress can spread through interconnected balance sheets- The case for government bonds as liquidity tightens and economic growth slows- Why Michael Howell distinguishes US Treasury yields from Europe's fiscal pressures- China's debt burden, potential monetary expansion, and the implications for gold and BitcoinChapters:00:00 Michael Howell on slowing global liquidity04:29 Why Main Street competes with Wall Street for funding09:12 The four phases of the liquidity cycle14:03 Repo markets, collateral, and the role of central banks18:15 Private credit creation and Fed-Treasury coordination22:25 Asset allocation through the liquidity cycle29:28 AI cyclicality and comparisons with past booms33:35 The debt maturity wall and refinancing demands41:23 Debt-to-liquidity stress and financial system fragility46:04 Refinancing risks and Europe's fiscal pressures50:19 Treasury yields, nominal growth, and China's economy55:43 The outlook for 2027, China's debt, and goldLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- 3 days ago57 min
Seven Stocks Are 41% of the S&P | John Davi on Building Portfolios Beyond the Mag 7 Bet
John Davi of Astoria Investment Management explains how he builds diversified portfolios in a tech dominated market. With Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, Davi walks through an alternative approach. He also explains why he sees echoes of the 1970s in today's inflation, what he watches in credit markets for signs of stress in the AI buildout, and where real assets fit alongside stocks and bonds.Topics covered:- Why John Davi trimmed Astoria's equity overweight without trying to call a market top- What the 10-year Treasury yield looks like relative to nominal economic growth- How SPY and QQQ overlap, and what a conventional equal-weight index changes besides stock weights- The question facing the Magnificent Seven: can earnings grow fast enough to justify AI spending?- Where John Davi agrees with the passive investing feedback-loop argument and where it falls short- What goes in the 20% when a 60/40 portfolio becomes 50% stocks, 30% bonds, and 20% diversifiers- Why John Davi favors AI adopters and watches credit default swaps on the companies funding the buildout- How Astoria screens for quality at a reasonable price using profitability, dividends, and valuation- What trading floors taught John Davi about hedging before a drawdownChapters:00:00 John Davi on earnings, rates, and trimming equity risk05:05 Is the 10-year Treasury yield high relative to growth?10:16 Seven stocks and the changing risk inside the S&P 50014:33 Diversifying around SPY and QQQ20:02 Equal stock weights without a big tech underweight24:46 Passive flows, prices, and buying the dip30:04 Higher rates, the 60/40 portfolio, and real assets37:08 From AI builders to companies using AI42:40 Credit spreads and cracks in the AI trade47:34 Adding a quality screen to growth stocks55:12 Why John Davi hedges and resists chasing past winnersResearch discussed:Rates Hit Multi-Decade Highs. Will Growth and Earnings Keep the Rally Going?https://www.astoriaim.com/single-post/rates-hit-multi-decade-highs-will-growth-and-earnings-keep-the-rally-goingAstoria Investment Managementhttps://www.astoriaim.com/Astoria on Xhttps://x.com/AstoriaAdvisorsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- 4 days ago51 min
Chip Stocks Look Cheap. AI Spending Is Surging. So Why Is Cameron Dawson Watching for Peak Earnings?
Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler to examine what could break the market's resilience, from AI earnings expectations to the wealth effect supporting consumer spending. A healthy economy and continued data center investment may not be enough to keep stock prices rising if profit margins and investor expectations reset.In this episode of Click Beta, Matt, Cameron and Dave debate what the two-year Treasury yield is signaling, how the AI buildout is changing demand for capital, and why semiconductor stocks can look cheap just as earnings approach a peak. They also discuss the possibility of a prolonged sideways market, practical approaches to rebalancing, and separating near-term cash needs from long-term investments. Then the surprise topics take a Halloween turn, with homemade costumes, strange family heirlooms, horror movies, and a very specific Creed halftime-show tribute.Topics covered:- Cameron Dawson's question: what would have to break for the Fed to deliver fewer hikes than markets expect?- The wealth effect, consumer spending, and the divide between the top and bottom of the K-shaped economy- Dave Nadig's concerns about AI financing, IPO supply, and who will absorb new stock issuance- Why a low semiconductor P/E ratio can reflect concerns about peak earnings- Micron, margin normalization, and the risk of extrapolating unusually strong profitability- How a resilient economy could coexist with falling technology stocks or a sideways index- Market rotation, defensive leadership, and the challenge of countertrend rallies- Rebalancing rules, timing luck, and planning for cash needs over the next 12 months- Distinguishing long-term legacy assets from money needed soon- Halloween costumes, family traditions, Rocky Horror, and cult-film recommendationsChapters:00:00 Welcome to Click Beta: Limp Bizkit meets the Fed05:30 What would have to break for the Fed to change course?11:18 The K-shaped consumer and AI's demand for capital16:44 More expensive capital and semiconductor earnings risk22:30 Can chip margins stay this high?26:56 Market rotation and the risk of going sideways32:51 Diversification, rebalancing, and near-term cash needs37:40 Halloween costumes and family stories42:02 Holiday heirlooms and a Creed costume deep cut46:32 Halloween movies, music, and where to find the panelLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- 1 weeks ago1h 2m
Tech is Selling Off. AI Debt Fears Are Rising. So Why Does a $4B Manager See a Reverse Bubble?
Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors makes the case for an AI "reverse bubble" and explains how earnings growth, interest rates, and valuation shape his market outlook. Rather than treating AI spending as proof of excess, he looks at contracts, financing costs, and the returns companies can earn on their investments.In this episode of Excess Returns, Jay joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to discuss his S&P 500 scenarios, the debate over CoreWeave and AI infrastructure debt, and why he believes some technology stocks offer better value than perceived safe havens. He also challenges the Fed's inflation framework and explains how he combines earnings growth, dividend yield, catalysts, and individual-stock covered calls in his investment process.Topics covered:- How Jay Hatfield builds S&P 500 targets from earnings estimates and valuation multiples- Why Treasury yields matter to discounted cash flow valuations- CoreWeave, project financing, and the distinction between contracted demand and speculative construction- What compute prices and long-term contracts could reveal about AI bubble risk- Jay Hatfield's "reverse bubble" thesis and his comparisons of growth-adjusted stock valuations- His framework linking the 10-year Treasury yield to expected terminal Fed policy- Why he challenges the Fed's inflation target, shelter data, and use of PCE- Evaluating dividend payers with PEGY: price relative to earnings growth plus dividend yield- How reinvestment, corporate taxes, and returns on capital affect long-term compounding- Combining stock selection and catalysts with actively managed covered callsInfrastructure Capital Advisors:https://www.infracapfunds.com/Jay Hatfield / InfraCap on X:https://x.com/JDHatfield_ICAPInfraCap's CPI-R analysis:https://www.infracapfunds.com/consumer-price-index-cpi-rChapters:00:00 Jay Hatfield's S&P 500 outlook and market scenarios06:43 Treasury yields, growth assumptions, and valuation multiples13:03 Technology stocks, CoreWeave, and project financing18:38 AI debt, vendor financing, and contracted demand26:09 The AI "reverse bubble" and growth-adjusted valuations31:09 Fed expectations and the 10-year Treasury yield38:14 Jay Hatfield's critique of the Fed and inflation data43:12 Could the Fed change its inflation target?47:48 Dividend yield, PEGY, and corporate reinvestment55:23 Stock selection, catalysts, and individual covered calls01:00:23 The long-term investing lesson: valuation and compoundingLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- 1 weeks ago1h 11m
The S&P 500 Is Just 50 Stocks. The Nasdaq Is a 67% AI Bet. Kai Wu on What Else Is Hiding in Your Funds
Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital shows how to uncover hidden AI exposure, overlapping ETF holdings, and unintended factor bets in your portfolio. Owning several funds can still leave you dependent on the same companies and the same AI spending cycle.In this episode of Excess Returns, Kai joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau for a walkthrough of Sparkline Analytics. Using examples from the S&P 500, Nasdaq, emerging markets, and active funds, they examine what investors actually own beneath the fund labels.Kai explains his distinction between AI infrastructure, early adopters, and laggards, then demonstrates how factor analysis, intangible asset data, and a portfolio builder can help investors ask better questions about diversification and manager performance.Explore Sparkline Analytics:https://app.sparklinecapital.com/Topics covered:How AI infrastructure exposure can overlap across the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and thematic AI fundsWhy Kai Wu distinguishes AI early adopters from infrastructure builders and laggardsHow rising capital expenditures can change the economics of formerly asset-light businessesWhy a fund's number of holdings can overstate its diversificationHow semiconductor exposure can connect emerging markets to the same AI tradeThe trade-off between reducing AI infrastructure exposure and increasing exposure to laggardsWhat ARKK illustrates about separating stock selection from factor headwindsWhy dividend, value, and low-volatility funds can have similar underlying exposuresHow patents, R&D, and human capital reveal assets traditional value metrics can missUsing fund comparisons and portfolio look-through tools to identify overlapping positionsChapters:00:00 Sparkline Analytics and hidden AI exposure in the S&P 50008:05 AI adopters, laggards, and multinational businesses12:47 How index exposure changes as the AI cycle evolves20:41 Does adding an AI fund diversify your portfolio?25:44 Capital spending and effective portfolio concentration30:14 Capital intensity and AI exposure beyond Big Tech35:44 Diversifying without retreating into AI laggards40:48 Screening funds and looking inside ARKK46:11 Separating stock-picking alpha from factor exposure52:35 Dividend, value, and low-volatility fund overlap57:52 Intangible value and a fund-diligence checklist01:05:39 Building a portfolio and looking through its holdings01:10:39 Where to find Sparkline AnalyticsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- 1 weeks ago50 min
Dr. Daniel Crosby on Behaviorally Optimal Portfolios, Risk Composure and the Casino Myth
Daniel Crosby explains why investors can lose money in winning funds and how to build a portfolio they can actually hold. Picking the right investment is only part of the challenge; staying with it through discomfort is where behavior can overwhelm the plan.In this episode of Excess Returns, psychologist and Orion Chief Behavioral Officer Daniel Crosby joins Matt Zeigler to discuss the new paperback edition of The Behavioral Investor. Daniel shares the story of a fund that returned over 18% annually for a decade while its average investor lost money, then explains how safety, stability, and success portfolios can help align investment decisions with human psychology. They also explore gambling apps, the limits of risk questionnaires, social media feedback loops, and the human side of financial advice in an AI-driven world.Topics covered:- Why a fund's returns can look very different from the returns its investors earn- Building safety, stability, and success buckets around different financial needs- The differences between risk tolerance, risk capacity, and risk composure- Why knowing what to do does not guarantee doing it during a drawdown- Daniel Crosby's case for rules, diversification, and meaningful benchmark differences- How sports betting and prediction markets blur the distinction between investing and gambling- Why recent market experience can create unrealistic expectations about future returns- Education, environment, and encouragement as tools for changing investor behavior- How algorithms reinforce market biases and why excitement can signal a blind spot- Where AI can free financial advisors to spend more time on human relationshipsThe Behavioral Investor - paperback edition:https://link.amazon/B00hgkHGGDaniel Crosby on X:https://x.com/danielcrosbyOrion Behavioral Finance:https://orion.com/behavioral-financeResearch discussed:The heat of the moment: the effect of sexual arousal on sexual decision makinghttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/bdm.501Chapters:00:00 Daniel Crosby and The Behavioral Investor04:51 Why winning funds can have losing investors11:46 Risk tolerance, capacity, and composure17:38 Stability portfolios and rules-based stock selection23:06 Investing, gambling, and prediction markets27:27 Recency bias and unrealistic return expectations31:30 Addictive apps and changing investor behavior35:48 Investor distractions and the media diet40:51 Investment excitement, humility, and AI45:00 What music reveals about consistency and experimentation49:29 Where to find Daniel Crosby and the bookLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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About Excess Returns
Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more.
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