The 1 in 18,900 Bet | Practical Lessons from Michael Maboussin, Katie Stockton, Ben Hunt, Kuppy and Aahan Menon

This episode of Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together the most important ideas from a packed week of interviews, covering AI and base rates, the Magnificent Seven, commodities, macro risks, and practical investing frameworks. Jack Forehand and Kai Wu break down key clips from Michael Mauboussin, Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, Ben Hunt, Katie Stockton, and Aahan Menon to extract timeless lessons investors can apply across different market environments.The conversation moves from AI expectations and economic profit to geopolitical “common knowledge” moments, commodity dynamics, trend following, and the importance of thinking in probabilities and time horizons.Topics Covered:Why OpenAI’s growth expectations are historically unprecedented and what base rates actually tell usHow base rates should guide expectations without limiting outlier outcomes like AmazonWhy large companies are growing faster today and the role of intangible assets and softwareThe concentration of economic profit in the Magnificent Seven and what it implies for valuationsWhy long-term time horizons create a structural edge in investingThe concept of “common knowledge” and how it reshapes markets during geopolitical eventsWhere AI value will accrue: companies vs consumers vs suppliersWhy commodities behave differently from stocks and bonds during supply shocksHow trend following works and why commodities are uniquely suited to itWhy investing is a probabilities game and how to manage uncertainty and position sizingHow technical indicators like the 200-day moving average should actually be usedTimestamps:00:00 Intro and overview of Weekly Wrap format00:02:05 Michael Mauboussin on OpenAI growth and base rates00:06:18 Why base rates matter but don’t define outcomes00:09:50 Why large companies are growing faster than history suggests00:14:58 Kuppy on time horizons and avoiding short-term noise00:19:15 Ben Hunt on “common knowledge” and the Strait of Hormuz00:24:13 AI value accrual and consumer surplus vs company profits00:28:10 Commodities, backwardation, and why price trends differ from equities00:32:45 Trend following and why commodities exhibit stronger trends00:34:41 Investing as a game of probabilities and decision-making under uncertainty00:41:58 Katie Stockton on the 200-day moving average and technical signals00:46:20 Breadth, trend signals, and how technicals inform risk management00:50:30 Position sizing, uncertainty, and diversification frameworks00:55:40 Revisiting the Magnificent Seven and intangible assets00:59:00 Trend following frameworks and portfolio constructionCheck out the full episode and all of our interviews from this week on the Excess Returns YouTube channel and podcast platforms.