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CFB Talks Digital Assets: Daily Summaries Delivered
by CF Benchmarks
CFB Talks Digital Assets is the home of informed conversation about crypto from CF Benchmarks.We are the first and leading digital asset index provider, authorized and regulated by the UK FCA.Respected and innovative financial institutions use our indices and reference rates to power regulated financial instruments, like listed derivatives, investment funds and structured products.Join CF Benchmarks’ Head of Content, Ken Odeluga, Head of Research, Gabe Selby, CFA and Research Analyst, Mark Pilipczuk, as they talk with some of the most accomplished and influential figures in finance, about everything affecting digital assets — crypto protocols, markets, fund flows, on-chain metrics, macroeconomics and more.
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- 6 days ago59 min
Blue Wave, Chip Rout, and Crypto After the Midterms
In this CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded November 5, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, NinjaTrader Senior Macro Strategist Craig Shapiro, Kraken chief economist Thomas Perfumo and Mike Treidl, CIO of Blue Coin Capital, two days after Democrats took control of both the House and the Senate.The panel works through a fast-moving week. A post-election relief rally reversed into a broad chip sell-off, the VIX jumped more than 50% in a single session, and voters backed roughly 40 local measures restricting data center development. The discussion covers what a Democratic Congress means for AI capex, the Fed’s December decision, Bitcoin’s renewed correlation to the Nasdaq and the prospects for the Clarity Act, before a deep dive into how Blue Coin Capital applies fundamental valuation to Venice AI’s dual-token model.Chapters:00:00 Intro & Welcome02:13 Election Night Through the Prediction Markets05:04 A Blue Wave Rout: First Move vs Second Move07:31 VIX Jumps 50%: Was Wednesday’s Rally a Bull Trap?08:27 Under the Hood: Semis Sold, Hyperscalers Bid11:20 The Median Voter Turns on AI: Data Center Ballot Measures16:39 Two Years of Pro-AI Policy Start to Unwind20:45 Texas, Grid Connections & Bipartisan Data Center Pushback23:34 Payrolls, CPI & the December Hike Debate26:01 The S&P, the 10-Year & Whether the Election Bought the Fed Time31:25 Is the Clarity Act Dead Under a Democratic Congress?33:46 Crypto’s Two-Year Sprint Before 202838:33 AI, Not Crypto, Is the Political Target40:07 Positioning a Crypto Fund After the Blue Wave41:43 Venice AI (VVV): Valuing a Token Through Its Burns44:05 Privacy as a Niche: Venice’s Market Share & $150M Run Rate51:59 Week Ahead: Payrolls, October CPI, Iran & Fund Flows
- 1 weeks ago57 min
Our Reaction to the FOMC, the Rates Market & the CFB Oracle Goes Live
In this week’s CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 29, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and returning guest Craig Shapiro, Senior Macro Strategist at NinjaTrader. Alex Butler, who leads go to market for the on-chain offering at CF Benchmarks, also joins to cover the launch of the CFB Oracle.The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 with two dissents in favor of a hike. September PCE inflation rose to 3.6% while third quarter GDP grew 3.4%. The panel debates whether a December hike is already locked in, how to read Kevin Warsh’s press conference, and how base effects from the oil spike could shape the path from here. The team also examines Alphabet’s negative free cash flow as a test for AI capex, explains how the CFB Oracle delivers UK BMR regulated indices on chain, and sets out how CF Benchmarks will treat the Bitcoin eCash (ECX) fork scheduled for October 30.Chapters: 00:00 Intro & Team Welcome 05:01 Warsh’s Press Conference: Same Old Fed? 09:56 “Run It Hot”: The AI Productivity Bet & Balance Sheet Timeline 13:30 Forward Guidance Under Warsh: Fed Speakers as an Echo Chamber 17:45 December Hike Odds: Lock or Coin Flip? 24:35 Is the Fed Seeing Credit Stress the Market Cannot? 26:35 Rates Market: Convexity, Forced Hedging & the Long End 36:58 Hyperscaler Capex: Alphabet’s Cash Burn vs. Microsoft 40:20 AI Financing: Credit Ratings & the Return on Capital Question 42:30 CFB Oracle: What It Is & Where It Is Live 44:32 “Who Signs the Price?” Why Methodology Matters On Chain 46:07 Oracle Roadmap: More Chains & Live Feeds 48:30 The Bitcoin eCash (ECX) Fork: What Changes for CFB Indices 51:35 Week Ahead: Central Banks, Earnings & the Treasury Refunding
- 2 weeks ago58 min
Payward's Ben Gray on GENIUS Rules & Regulation After Clarity
In this week’s CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 22, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and special guest Ben Gray, Kraken’s Chief Legal Officer, for a discussion spanning macro, markets and regulation.Bitcoin traded near $82,000 as a tech-led, risk-off rotation hit equities, with the 10-year Treasury yield near 5% and Brent crude above $110. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows continued, yet leverage and macro headlines kept pressure on price. The panel then turns to the regulatory calendar. The OCC finalized the first federal rule under the GENIUS Act on October 21, and the Senate’s September 15 cloture vote on the CLARITY Act failed 49 to 50. Ben explains what both mean for stablecoin rewards, trust charters and a market structure framework now being written by agencies rather than Congress.Chapters: 00:00 Intro & Welcome 02:41 Meet Ben Gray: From Federal Regulator to Kraken CLO 07:35 Bitcoin Near $82K: Tech Rotation & the ETF Flow Divergence 18:30 The OCC Finalizes Its First GENIUS Act Rule 21:17 Stablecoin Rewards: How Regulators Will Judge Yield 26:40 Banks vs. Stablecoins: Lobbying & the ICBA Lawsuit 35:28 Rules Without Congress: What the SEC & CFTC Can Deliver 39:02 Five-Year Exemptions & the SEC to CFTC Handoff 43:17 How Sticky Is Agency Rulemaking?46:00 The SEC Innovation Exemption: Scope & Early Uptake 48:50 Week Ahead: FOMC, Big Tech Earnings & PCE 54:43 Ben’s Watchlist: Midterms & the CFTC’s Exchange Framework
- 3 weeks ago1h 0m
Stablecoin Banking, Hot CPI, and The October FOMC Meeting
In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 15, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk. Special guest Bivu Das, Kraken’s UK General Manager and head of Payment Services, also joins to discuss the team’s new paper on stablecoin payments infrastructure.The first half unpacks where banks and fintechs are starting with stablecoins, why balances are the most exposed pool of capital, and what Kraken’s agreed acquisition of a Lithuanian bank signals about crypto and TradFi convergence. The second half turns to macro: a hotter core CPI print, falling long-end yields, and whether the Fed should hold or hike at its October meeting.Chapters: 00:00 Intro & Team Welcome 02:19 Meet Bivu Das: Kraken UK & Payment Services03:40 Stablecoins & the Opportunity05:08 What Banks & Fintechs Want from Stablecoins 08:42 Three Pools of Capital: Which Gets Disrupted First? 17:04 Kraken’s Bank Acquisition 21:42 Stablecoin Yield: GENIUS, the OCC & MiCA 27:08 Central Banks Pilot Stablecoin Rails 29:34 Is Deposit Flight Overblown? 35:41 Fixing Fiat On & Off Ramps 39:32 Macro: Hot Core CPI, Falling Yields 41:11 October FOMC: Hike or Hold? 45:23 Why Long-End Yields Fell Despite Inflation50:39 Rate Hikes Before Elections: What History Says 56:09 Bitcoin Key Levels57:33 Week Ahead: Earnings, Auctions & GENIUS Comments
- Oct 8, 20261h 1m
Crypto Correction, Rising Yields, and Q3 Earnings Season
In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 8, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA, is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, for a wide-ranging discussion of macro, earnings and crypto market structure.With the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.3%, its highest level since 2002, and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting pointing to another rate increase this year, the panel examines what higher yields mean for risk assets and bank balance sheets. Against that backdrop, expected Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth of nearly 29.5% brings corporate performance and AI capital spending into focus. The conversation then turns to September’s divergent altcoin returns, the SEC’s innovation exemption and the proposed accredited investor exam.Chapters00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome01:16 – Market Check: Bitcoin Rejected at $87K as the 10-Year Yield Tops 5.3%02:27 – On Our Screens: Retracement Levels, Moving Averages & Crude Oil11:10 – Implied Rate Path: October Pause, December in Focus12:59 – Labor Market: Cracks or Just a Lull?15:04 – The Fed’s Breadth Problem: Healthcare Carries Job Growth22:07 – The Disconnect: Yields at 2002 Levels, Equities Near Highs23:56 – Why Real Yields Are Rising: Deficits & AI Hyperscaler Capital Needs26:59 – Bond Losses & Bank Balance Sheets: Revisiting the SVB Playbook30:35 – Who Is Buying the Debt?32:27 – Late-Cycle Rally, Concentration Risk & What Could Break It36:27 – Q3 Earnings Preview: 29.5% Growth Led by Energy, Tech & Communication Services39:14 – AI Earnings, Bank Dealmaking & Estimate Revisions42:20 – Returns on CapEx: Free Cash Flow & Hyperscaler Financing44:32 – September Attribution: Fundamentals & Fee Revenue Drive Altcoin Gains45:41 – Sector Dispersion: DeFi Outpaces Equities, Bitcoin Dominance Holds Near 60%48:23 – Innovation Exemption & the Regulatory Catalyst Pipeline59:31 – Week Ahead: Bank Earnings, CPI, PPI & ETF Flows
- Oct 1, 202659 min
Bond Vigilantes, Innovation Exemptions, & Fee Switches: Inside the CFB Q4 Outlook
In this week's CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 1, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken's Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA for a discussion spanning macro, global rates and on-chain markets.BEA revisions to how it prices portfolio management, software and legal services helped pull August core PCE down to 3.0%, below the 3.3% consensus, and October rate hike odds fell to roughly 35%. The UK 30-year gilt yield crossed 6% for the first time since 1998. Crypto kept rallying after the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act on September 15.The team ties these threads to the central finding of the Q4 2026 Market Outlook, "Numbers Over Narrative." Since June 30, the ten highest-revenue tokens in the CF investable universe returned about 80% on average, against roughly 18% for the ten lowest. The Outlook is free at cfbenchmarks.com under Research and Insights.Chapters:00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome00:49 – August Core PCE: Softer Inflation or a New Ruler?07:39 – October Rate Hike Odds Halve, December Still Priced In09:46 – September Scorecard: The CF DeFi Composite Outruns the Broad Market11:21 – Why Crypto Rallied Through a Failed Clarity Vote19:20 – UK 30-Year Gilt Hits 6%: Fiscal Stress or Higher Real Yields?23:20 – Interest Expense, Treasury Buybacks & the Intervention Question28:51 – What to Watch: Peripheral Spreads, Auction Tails & the TGA31:05 – Bond ETF Inflows, Pensions & the Coupon Case for Duration36:15 – Q4 Outlook: Numbers Over Narrative37:06 – Macro Backdrop: Thin Consumer Cushion & the Fed's Path40:55 – Revenue to Be Rewarded: Fee Switches & Token Returns43:30 – Tokenized Equities Scale Toward $3 Billion46:43 – Beyond Crypto: Single Stock Perps & 24/7 Markets48:18 – U.S. Perps Ahead: HIP-3, Retail vs. Institutions & Producer Hedging52:14 – Bitcoin 10-Year Capital Market Assumptions Update55:07 – Week Ahead: Jobs, FOMC Minutes, Senate Recess, ETF Flows & Treasury Auctions
- Sep 24, 202658 min
The Bitcoin Bottom Explained
In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded September 24, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk are joined by Bitwise Europe's Head of Research André Dragosch and Research Analyst Max Shannon to unpack the two teams' joint report, "The Bitcoin Bottom Explained."With the US 10-year yield above 5.1% and the Fed back in hiking mode, the panel first weighs whether the sovereign bond rout spills over into equities and crypto. The conversation then turns to the two independent frameworks, Bitwise's on-chain model and the CF Benchmarks market cycle engine, that both point to June 30 at $58,000 as the likely cycle low, before stress-testing the bear case and closing with the week ahead.Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Welcome: Bitwise Europe Joins the Space 02:29 – The Global Sovereign Bond Rout 07:26 – MOVE vs VIX: A Bond-Equity Disconnect 09:28 – Is the Fed Behind the Curve? The Shadow Rate Signal 12:07 – Crypto Check-In: ETF Flows & Key Levels14:44 – CME Basis Expansion & the ETH/BTC Rotation 19:45 – The Bitcoin Bottom Explained23:31 – Bitwise's On-Chain Model: Seller Exhaustion Meets Demand 26:01 – CFB's Market Cycle Engine: Regimes, Breadth & Thrust 32:56 – Forward Returns & Regime-Flip Alpha 39:16 – Steelmanning the Bears: Is Another Leg Down Possible? 42:58 – M2 Growth, Correlations & the Decoupling Debate 46:19 – The Alligator Jaw: Bitcoin vs Global Money Supply 47:38 – AI Equity Rollover Risk51:58 – Week Ahead: Key Things to Watch
- Sep 3, 202654 min
Bitcoin's Breakout, The Fed's September Decision, & The New CME CF Indices
In a CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded September 3, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, and CF Benchmarks Head of Product Thomas Erdosi.Fed rate hike odds for the September 16 meeting swung from roughly two-thirds to a coin flip inside 24 hours, after Governor Waller signaled support for holding steady and Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks got read as more hawkish than intended. The panel works through what the data between now and the decision, NFP tomorrow and CPI on September 11, would need to show to settle the debate, then turns to Bitcoin's push through $80,000 on the broadest market breadth of the year. The back half covers the Middle East-driven oil spike and its interaction with the debasement trade, a sizable new Treasury buyback program, and closes with a first look at two new benchmarks: the CME CF Crypto Market Index and CME CF Emerging Crypto Index, plus the launch of the CF Benchmarks Oracle for on-chain price verification.Chapters: 00:00 – Disclaimer & Team Welcome 00:49 – September Rate Hike Odds Swing to a Coin Flip 03:09 – Base Case: Hold, With Oil as the Wildcard 05:41 – Warsh's Ambiguity and the FOMC's Historical Hiking Pattern 13:24 – Bitcoin's Push Above $80K 16:02 – Options Positioning Turns Less Lopsided to the Downside 17:23 – Key Levels: Eyeing a Push Toward $90K 18:40 – ETF Flows and MicroStrategy's Return to Buying 24:20 – CME vs. IBIT: Where the Call Buying Is Concentrated 28:06 – Tracking Vol With the CME CF Bitcoin Volatility Index 29:25 – Middle East Escalation and the Debasement Trade 34:07 – Germany's Fiscal Pivot and European Defense Spending 37:01 – Market Breadth: The Broadest Rally of the Year 39:08 – Getting Altcoin Exposure Beyond Bitcoin and Ether 40:14 – Inside the New CME CF Crypto Market and Emerging Crypto Indices 41:23 – Index Construction: Durability, Product Fit and Filters 46:02 – The CF Benchmarks Oracle Goes On-Chain 48:57 – Week Ahead: NFP, CPI, Fed Decision & Treasury Auctions
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About CFB Talks Digital Assets
CFB Talks Digital Assets is the home of informed conversation about crypto from CF Benchmarks.We are the first and leading digital asset index provider, authorized and regulated by the UK FCA.Respected and innovative financial institutions use our indices and reference rates to power regulated financial instruments, like listed derivatives, investment funds and structured products.Join CF Benchmarks’ Head of Content, Ken Odeluga, Head of Research, Gabe Selby, CFA and Research Analyst, Mark Pilipczuk, as they talk with some of the most accomplished and influential figures in finance, about everything affecting digital assets — crypto protocols, markets, fund flows, on-chain metrics, macroeconomics and more.
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