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by CF Benchmarks
CFB Talks Digital Assets is the home of informed conversation about crypto from CF Benchmarks.We are the first and leading digital asset index provider, authorized and regulated by the UK FCA.Respected and innovative financial institutions use our indices and reference rates to power regulated financial instruments, like listed derivatives, investment funds and structured products.Join CF Benchmarks’ Head of Content, Ken Odeluga, Head of Research, Gabe Selby, CFA and Research Analyst, Mark Pilipczuk, as they talk with some of the most accomplished and influential figures in finance, about everything affecting digital assets — crypto protocols, markets, fund flows, on-chain metrics, macroeconomics and more.
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In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded July 30 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, and special guest Tyler Evans, Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer of UTXO Management.Tyler is a career Bitcoiner. He co-founded BTC Inc, the publisher behind Bitcoin Magazine and The Bitcoin Conference, before launching UTXO Management, a Bitcoin-native asset manager focused on asymmetric opportunities across public and private markets.The Fed held for a fifth consecutive meeting with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a hike, the most unified dissent since 2016. The 30 year yield closed at its highest level since 2007. Q2 GDP came in at 1.5% against expectations near 2.1%. Strategy raised another $544 million of common equity without buying a single Bitcoin. And with the Senate's August recess days away, the CLARITY Act remains stuck behind an unresolved ethics provision. The panel works through what all of it means for Bitcoin, treasury companies, and the broader crypto market.Chapters:00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome04:02 – Grading Warsh's Second Press Conference08:14 – Three Inflation Shocks & the Case for a Hold Through Year-End12:52 – The Yen at 40-Year Lows & the Carry Trade Read-Across14:24 – Is the Fed Losing Control of the Long End?16:22 – Yield Curve Control: Playing Against the House20:47 – GDP Misses at 1.5%: Soft Headline, Firmer Internals23:08 – Best Case, Worst Case: Oil, Tariffs & the AI Capex Wobble26:07 – The K-Shaped Economy & Why the US Is Insulated28:42 – Dissent Contagion & Volatility Sequencing Across Assets31:25 – Saylor on Defense: Cash Reserve, Dilution & STRC Buybacks34:56 – Rebuilding mNAV: Aligning Equity Accretion With Bitcoin Per Share37:32 – Stretch at $89: Betting Against Strategy Means Shorting Bitcoin41:15 – Digital Asset Treasuries: Throwing Out the Baby With the Bathwater?46:00 – Supply Concentration: Bitcoin vs ETH & Hyperliquid Treasuries48:54 – Volatility Harvesting & the Coiled Bitcoin Spring54:21 – CLARITY at the One Yard Line: UTXO's Bearish Base Case56:58 – Week Ahead: Jobs, ECI, Strategy Earnings & the CLARITY Act
Could oil be the catalyst that wakes cross-asset volatility?In this CF Benchmarks X Space, recorded on July 23, 2026, CF Benchmarks Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA (@gxselby), is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilkoczuck; Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA (@ThomasPerfumo); CF Benchmarks Head of Business Development Peter Stern (@sternpeter9); and special guest Craig Shapiro (@ces921), Senior Macro Strategist at NinjaTrader and author of The Aletheia Narrative.The conversation captures markets at a genuine inflection point. With July options expiry behind us and dealer positioning near cyclical lows, the cross-asset volatility suppressed throughout the year may finally be reawakening.Craig explains his “coiled spring” framework for record-low implied correlations and traces the potential sequence of a volatility shock—from oil to rates, credit and, ultimately, equities. The group also examines why the hyperscalers’ AI capital-expenditure boom is increasingly relying on external financing rather than free cash flow—and whether that shift is beginning to strain some of the world’s most profitable companies.The discussion then turns to the CLARITY Act, including the Senate draft’s ethics provision and the compressed timeline ahead of the August recess, leaving its prospects for passage close to a coin flip.Chapters:00:00 – Introduction and Team Welcome01:55 – Meet Craig Shapiro: Two Decades on the Buy Side04:14 – Market Snapshot: Bitcoin, Oil and Rates05:49 – Implied Correlations and the “Cold Spring” Effect12:15 – Semiconductors vs. Software: Where the Dispersion Lies15:38 – Hyperscalers Turn Cash-Flow Negative21:21 – AI CapEx: Payback, Funding and the Shift From Debt to Equity29:52 – The Yen Carry Trade and Dollar-Yen at 40-Year Highs35:45 – Oil, Inflation and the July CPI38:43 – Crude’s Backwardation and the 2027 Supply Glut39:59 – Can the Fed Ignore Oil? Warsh’s Next Move and the Balance Sheet46:50 – The CLARITY Act: Inside the Senate Draft and Its Ethics Provision56:12 – The Week Ahead: What We’re WatchingListen to the original X Space: https://x.com/i/spaces/1vKpPPAqaVmKEFollow the speakers and organizations on X:CF Benchmarks — @CFBenchmarks https://x.com/CFBenchmarksGabe Selby, CFA — @gxselby https://x.com/gxselbyThomas Perfumo, CFA — @ThomasPerfumo https://x.com/ThomasPerfumoPeter Stern — @sternpeter9 https://x.com/sternpeter9Craig Shapiro — @ces921 https://x.com/ces921Kraken — @krakenfx https://x.com/krakenfxNinjaTrader — @NinjaTrader https://x.com/NinjaTrader
In this week's CFB Talks Digital Assets live X Space, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, with Blue Coin Capital Founder and CIO Mike Treidl, CFA joining for the second half. A cooler-than-expected June CPI print, a widening reality check on corporate AI budgets, and Strategy's evolving balance-sheet playbook frame a wide-ranging session across macro, markets, and digital asset structure. The team works through the disinflation signal against a still-unresolved energy backdrop, debates whether the AI capital expenditure cycle is approaching a return-on-investment reckoning, and closes with a detailed look at how Strategy is managing its capital stack in a compressed NAV environment.Chapters: 0:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 2:39 – June Retail Sales: A Softening Consumer? 5:02 – Cooling Inflation & the Rates Market Setup 8:53 – Oil, Energy & the Inflation Impulse 12:41 – A Bifurcated Oil World: Diesel, Refiners & Inventory Risk 17:17 – Fed Speak: Waller's Hawkish Turn 20:00 – Warsh's Fed: Agenda-Setting & Constructive Ambiguity 26:49 – Q2 Earnings: Financials Surprise to The Upside28:58 – Hyperscaler CapEx & the AI ROI Question 32:53 – The AI Spending Reality Check 38:18 – AI's Moat Problem: Low Switching Costs 43:03 – Guest Mike Treidl Joins: AI Moats & Walled Gardens 45:30 – Strategy's New Playbook: ATM Raises Over Bitcoin Sales 48:33 – The USD Reserve Debate: The Right Use of Cash? 59:38 – Week Ahead: FOMC, the Clarity Act & Fund Flows 1:01:57 – Closing Remarks
In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded June 25, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by a deep bench from across CF Benchmarks and Kraken: CEO Sui Chung, Head of Sales Peter Stern, Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, and Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo. The team is joined by special guest James Seyffart, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, with a drop-in from Bitwise Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen.With Bitcoin more than 50% off its all-time high, the panel takes on the question that's all over the headlines: is Strategy breaking the Bitcoin market? The conversation works through Strategy's preferred-share stress, its cash runway, an ETF holder base now underwater for the first time this cycle, the capital rotation into AI and the DRAM trade, and a hotter-than-expected May PCE print, before closing on what they're watching in the coming weeks.Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Welcome03:58 – Is Strategy the Single Biggest Driver of Bitcoin? 06:36 – Dividend Cut or Sell Bitcoin? Pricing the Digital Credit Premium 10:57 – Reflexivity vs Past Cycles: The DAT & ETF Twin Poles 17:16 – ETF Holders Underwater followed by $10B in Outflows 18:30 – What Institutions Are Actually Saying During the Drawdown23:35 – The Long-Term Bull Case for Crypto27:36 – Tokenized Equities Overtake Memecoins on Solana 29:00 – The XRP ETF Demand31:45 – Tracking the 13Fs: Who Currently Owns These ETFs? 33:28 – How Big a Deal Is a Billion-Dollar ETF Launch? 35:38 – Why Index Funds Win Over the Long Term 41:23 – The Elephant in the Room: AI & the DRAM ETF Story 47:44 – Making the Bull Case: Real Incomes & Peak Inflation 50:47 – The Week Ahead: What We're Watching
Recorded June 18, 2026.In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CF Benchmarks Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, and CF Benchmarks Head of Business Development Peter Stern, with CEO Sui Chung calling in from London. The team also welcomes a special guest: David Lawant, Head of Research at Anchorage Digital and previously head of research at FalconX.The panel grades Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting, unpacks the mechanics of synthetic Bitcoin yield from David's new whitepaper on covered call strategies, examines the arrival of covered-call ETFs, and works through the price movements in Strategy's STRETCH preferred.Chapters: 00:00 – Intro, Compliance Note & Team Welcome03:32 – The FOMC Recap: Rates Held, the Statement Slashed, a Dot Goes Missing05:46 – Grading Warsh's Debut: The Panel's Report Card15:17 – Killing the Dot Plot? The Forward Guidance Debate18:45 – The "Fed Put" & Market Reflexivity24:11 – Hawkish on Rates or the Balance Sheet?30:38 – Synthetic Bitcoin Yield: Inside David's latest research piece34:43 – Bitcoin's Volatility Risk Premium & a Call-Heavy Options Market37:00 – Covered-Call ETFs Arrive: BlackRock's BITA & Advisor Appetite42:53 – Muted Basis & Funding: Why Yield-Seekers Turn to Options44:51 – STRETCH Under Stress: Strategy's Preferred Slips Below Par47:05 – Reading the Spread: STRETCH vs Peer Yield Products50:20 – Strategy's Mechanics: USD Reserve, Convert Buyback & the Dividend Standoff53:28 – The Fast Round: What We're Watching Over the Next Week
In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded June 11, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, and CF Benchmarks CEO Sui Chung, with special guest Ishmael Asad, Research Analyst at Bitwise, for a wide-ranging roundtable across macro, markets, and crypto fundamentals.With long-end yields at multi-year highs, a hot CPI and PPI print, and a new Fed chair stepping in the panel works through the following question: when do a string of "one-off" shocks cement into a structural regime? From there the conversation turns to where capital is actually flowing, contrasting a discounted crypto market, Hyperliquid's fundamentals-driven ascent and entry into the CF Large Cap, and a record-breaking SpaceX IPO drawing in a wave of retail demand.Chapters: 00:00 – Intro, Team Welcome & Guest Introduction 02:06 – The Macro Setup: Multi-Year-High Yields, Hot CPI & PPI 04:27 – A 1970s Redux? Oil, Iran & the Incoming Warsh Fed 06:50 – How Long Can "One-Off" Inflation Shocks Continue? 09:11 – Hot Labor Data, Rate-Hike Odds & a Global Liquidity Squeeze 14:08 – A View From London: Political Shocks & Stagflation Risk 17:10 – When Good News Is Bad News: Labor Market Cracks & Capital Rotation 19:58 – Spotlight on Hyperliquid: Inside CFB's New Valuation Framework 21:25 – HYPE's Economics: ~$1B Revenue, an 83% Margin & a 61x TTM Multiple 24:20 – Why a Scalable 24/7 Model Commands a Premium 26:13 – HYPE's Institutional Bid: ETF Flows & the Coinbase Deal 28:38 – HYPE Joins the CF Large Cap at Number Five 32:29 – Index Inclusion Explained: Why SpaceX Can't Join the S&P 500 Yet 37:14 – The Bear Case: Token Unlocks & Supply Overhang 39:55 – Hyperliquid's Competition & the Perps Landscape44:33 – The SpaceX IPO: What Are Investors Looking At?47:54 – Orbital AI: The Interstellar Data Center Narrative 49:40 – Elon's Playbook: Narrative, Multiples & "Populist Liquidity" 53:16 – Rapid Fire: The Week Ahead
This episode was recorded live via X Spaces - audio quality varies in places.Recorded June 4, 2026, the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space finds Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, and CF Benchmarks Product Manager Jen Wang, with special guest John Todaro, Managing Director of crypto and AI/HPC equity research at Needham.With Bitcoin near $63,500 after thirteen straight days of ETF outflows, the panel works through what a tightening capital markets backdrop, renewed rate-hike risk, and an unresolved US-Iran oil shock mean for digital assets. The conversation turns to why public Bitcoin miners are racing to become AI infrastructure landlords, how MicroStrategy and the new wave of treasury companies are faring under pressure, and where genuine fundamentals are still separating the winners from the noise.00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 01:09 – Meet the Guest: Needham's John Todaro02:48 – Data Check: Bitcoin Near $63.5K as the BVX Spikes04:23 – Are Fed Rate Hikes Back on the Table?06:50 – Looking Through the Oil Shock: The Hormuz Premium08:25 – How Rates Hit Crypto Equities vs. AI Infrastructure11:37 – Is Bitcoin Mining a Dying Business?14:11 – Supply Constraints: GPUs, IREN–Nvidia & the Power Bottleneck18:10 – Public vs. Private Miners: The Great HPC Bifurcation22:47 – MicroStrategy's First BTC Sale Since 2022 & the Capital Markets Squeeze27:39 – Why Institutions Want Operating Cash Flows, Not Just Treasuries30:36 – BitMine's 9.5% Preferred: Does Staking Yield Change the DAT Math?33:14 – Crypto's Strangest Chart: Hyperliquid, Its ETF & "Fundamentals Not Vibes"36:29 – The Echo Chamber: Is This Really Capitulation?38:27 – Bitcoin's Technical Setup & the $59–60K Demand Zone41:19 – HYPE Joins the CF Capitalization Series (Jen Wang)42:58 – Reading the Vol Surface: Where the Protection Bid Sits44:48 – CME BVX Futures Go Live: A Hedging Playbook & the ETN Pipeline49:58 – Week Ahead: Clarity Act, ERCOT, FOMC & Friday Payrolls56:16 – Closing RemarksThe information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell any of the underlying instruments cited including but not limited to cryptoassets, financial instruments or any instruments that reference any index provided by CF Benchmarks Ltd. This communication is not intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. Please contact your financial adviser or professional before making an investment decision.Note: Some of the underlying instruments cited within this material may be restricted to certain customer categories in certain jurisdictions.
This episode was recorded live via X Spaces - audio quality varies in places.In this week's CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded May 14, 2026, the team unpacks a packed week for macro, policy and market structure: a hot CPI print that flips rate-cut expectations on their head; the CLARITY Act clears the Senate Banking Committee with bipartisan support; Kevin Warsh's narrow confirmation as Fed Chair designate; and CME announces Bitcoin Volatility futures will launch on June 1.Join Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA, Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, and - for a special deep dive on CME's watershed product launch - CF Benchmarks Senior Product Manager Xin Wang.Chapters:00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome00:53 – Hot CPI Print: 3.8% YoY & The Rate Hike Pivot03:25 – PPI Confirms The Trend: Sharpest Print Since March 202205:25 – Market Impact: S&P at All-Time Highs, 10-Year Tops Year-to-Date07:00 – CLARITY Act Markup: Today's Pivotal Senate Banking Vote09:35 – GENIUS Act as the Analog: Why CLARITY Matters11:57 – Calendar Risk: Beating the Midterm Clock13:06 – Warsh Confirmed 54-45 — But Powell Stays Until 202818:46 – The Real Story: A Divided Fed Board, Not a Puppet Chair21:00 – Bitcoin at $81K & The 200-Week Moving Average in Focus24:26 – ETF Bid Support: Stairs Up, Elevator Down?27:05 – Stagflation Tilt: GDPNow & Decelerating Growth28:20 – Ether's Relief Rally: Catch-Up Trade or Real Move?31:03 – Altcoin Leadership: AI & Compute Tokens Take the Lead34:51 – CME Launches Bitcoin Vol. Futures June 1: a Watershed Moment36:33 – Inside BVX/BVXS: 30-Day Forward Vol. on CME Bitcoin Options39:18 – Is BVX the "VIX of Bitcoin"? Similarities & Differences41:40 – Vol. as Feature, Not Bug: How Practitioners Will Deploy BVX44:25 – The IBIT Options Effect: Compressing Bitcoin's Vol. Curve50:06 – The $10T Asset Question: Why Bitcoin Vol. Trends Down52:54 – Week Ahead: FOMC Minutes & The Trump-Xi Summit56:26 – Closing Remarks
CFB Talks Digital Assets is the home of informed conversation about crypto from CF Benchmarks.We are the first and leading digital asset index provider, authorized and regulated by the UK FCA.Respected and innovative financial institutions use our indices and reference rates to power regulated financial instruments, like listed derivatives, investment funds and structured products.Join CF Benchmarks’ Head of Content, Ken Odeluga, Head of Research, Gabe Selby, CFA and Research Analyst, Mark Pilipczuk, as they talk with some of the most accomplished and influential figures in finance, about everything affecting digital assets — crypto protocols, markets, fund flows, on-chain metrics, macroeconomics and more.
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