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BTC Sessions: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Ben Perrin
Get your dose of Bitcoin with weekly news roundups and "Why Are We Bullish" panel shows featuring Bitcoiners from around the world!
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- Today1h 19m
"The Markets Are In Denial" But Not For Long | Lepard & Valek
Mentor Sessions EP 109: Lawrence Lepard & Mark Valek on the Sovereign Debt Crisis, the Fed Trap, Gold, Silver & BitcoinAmerica's debt just blew past $40 trillion, interest now costs more than the entire military budget, and yet gold and Bitcoin are both down on the year. Larry Lepard of Equity Management Associates and Mark Valek of Incrementum explain why the debasement trade stalled and what sets it off again.In this conversation you'll learn why Valek sees a melting system against Lawrence Lepard's Big Print, why higher short-term rates trap the Fed under fiscal dominance, and which stress signals are flashing right now: European sovereign spreads, commercial real estate delinquencies, AI debt, and private equity funds gating withdrawals. You'll hear why central banks have been net gold buyers every year since 2010 and stepped up their buying after 2022, why Larry thinks Bitcoin already bottomed near $58K, Valek's case for ETF concentration risk, and the market levels both are watching going into 2027.⏱️ Timestamps:0:00 - Intro1:08 - Melting System Vs The Big Print4:07 - The Fed Has No Lever To Fix Inflation8:52 - Fiat Currency Is A Religion12:23 - Sovereign Debt Crisis And Extreme Volatility14:23 - Europe's Credit Spreads Flash A Warning16:39 - Cracks In AI Debt, Private Credit And Gated Funds20:16 - They Will Always Choose To Print23:27 - Hank Paulson's Break The Glass Warning27:50 - The Fed And Treasury Are Trapped30:50 - Is A New Bretton Woods Coming?34:04 - The Money Printer Joke37:28 - Greenspan: The Power Is Intoxicating40:27 - Who's Selling Gold To Central Banks?44:49 - The Third Inning Of The Sovereign Debt Bubble47:10 - Is Europe The Next Catalyst?54:42 - Where Bitcoin Stands After The Hacks57:11 - Does Gold Move Before Bitcoin?59:03 - Mark's Unpopular Take: Bitcoin ETF Concentration Risk1:04:45 - Silver Back Below $50 Is A Gift1:07:03 - Copper, Silver And The Commodity Squeeze1:10:31 - When Does The Big Print Happen?1:12:28 - Gold Can't Default1:14:45 - What To Watch Going Into 2027Guests: Lawrence "Larry" Lepard (Equity Management Associates, author of The Big Print) and Mark Valek (Incrementum, co-author of the In Gold We Trust report).🔗 Links & Resources:→ Larry Lepard / EMA free quarterly letter: https://www.ema2.com→ Follow Lawrence Lepard on X: https://x.com/LawrenceLepard→ Mark Valek / Incrementum: https://www.incrementum.li→ In Gold We Trust report: https://ingoldwetrust.report→ Follow Mark on X: https://x.com/MarkValekThis is a Mentor Sessions deep-dive for the regulars. Drop your read in the comments: does the Fed print before this bubble deflates, or does the market crack first? Tell us where you're positioned.⚡Previous Episode:Brent Johnson & Keith Dicker: https://youtu.be/QCgW8RlTu5Q🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOINhttps://qrco.de/bfiDC6💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more. 👉 Visit btcmentor.io#SovereignDebt #LawrenceLepard #MarkValek #Gold #Bitcoin #Silver #LarryLepard #DebtCrisis #FederalReserve #AIBubble #PrivateCredit #InGoldWeTrust #TheBigPrint #MentorSessions #BTCSessions
- 2 days ago1h 4m
No One Alive Has Seen What's About to Happen to the Bond Market | Johnson & Dicker
Mentor Sessions EP 108: Brent Johnson & Keith Dicker on the Bond Market, the Dollar, Gold & the Next Money RotationThe rest of the world owes an estimated $110 trillion in US-dollar debt they can't print, and a rising dollar is what could force the defaults. Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital and Keith Dicker of IceCap Asset Management lay out why a strong dollar and higher Treasury yields can coexist, what actually causes de-dollarization, and how to position before the next liquidity shock.In this conversation you'll learn why Johnson reads October's sharp Treasury rally as a snapback after record-short positioning, why Dicker warns the bond market peak is behind us and bonds may be a brutal long-term hold, and why a falling dollar index is actually re-dollarization, not the collapse everyone expects. You'll see why both managers treat gold as portfolio insurance that gets sold first in a crisis, why energy could become the next crowded trade if the Middle East stays hot, and how a closer Fed-Treasury 'shotgun wedding' could reshape dollar policy as great-power competition heats up. You'll walk away with a concrete way to stress-test your exposure to bonds, equities, gold bullion, and cash against a range of outcomes.⏱️ Timestamps:0:00 - Intro1:05 - October Treasury Rally And Dollar Strength2:33 - Is The Bond Peak A Bear Trap?4:36 - Why Higher US Rates Are Not Catastrophic6:35 - Defining Inflation As Rising Prices7:13 - Rising Yields And Dollar Strength Explained9:08 - Global Government Debt Financing Crisis11:07 - Will Sovereign Bond Markets Force Central Bank Intervention?13:18 - Why Global Chaos Favors The United States15:03 - The 110 Trillion Dollar Global Debt Problem17:01 - What Could Actually Break The Dollar System17:46 - Dollar Index As De-Dollarization Gauge24:23 - Gold Bitcoin And Oil Underperforming Amid Chaos27:05 - Iran Nuclear Risk And Market Signals33:57 - Gold As Portfolio Insurance And Core Holding37:29 - Energy As The Next Market Euphoria Trade39:13 - Expecting A Tech And AI Correction42:25 - Prepare For A Crash Instead Of Waiting47:29 - Canada US Economic Ties And Energy Exports52:45 - The Fed Treasury Shotgun Wedding Thesis58:06 - Will America First Survive The Next Administration?1:02:23 - Year End Outlook Be Prepared For Everything🔗 Links & Resources:→ Brent Johnson / Santiago Capital: https://santiagocapital.com→ Follow Brent on X: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund→ Brent Johnson on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MilkshakesPod→ TransAtlantic TakeAway (Brent Johnson & John Butler): https://www.transatlantictakeaway.com→ Keith Dicker / IceCap Asset Management: https://icecapassetmanagement.com→ Follow IceCap on X: https://x.com/IceCapGlobal→ The Loonie Hour (Keith Dicker): https://www.looniehour.ca⚡Previous Episode:Brandon Quittem & Walker America: https://youtu.be/Lci53xJgAFw🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOINhttps://qrco.de/bfiDC6💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more. 👉 Visit btcmentor.io#BondMarket #BrentJohnson #KeithDicker #MentorSessions #BTCSessions #Bitcoin #SovereignDebt #TreasuryYields #USDollar #DollarMilkshake #DeDollarization #GlobalDebt #FederalReserve #InterestRates #StockMarketCrash #MarketCorrection #EnergyStocks #SectorRotation #GoldInvesting #SantiagoCapital #IceCapAssetManagement #MarketVolatility
- 1 weeks ago1h 30m
It's Not Just A Fourth Turning, Every Cycle In History Is About To Collide | Quittem & Walker
Mentor Sessions EP 107: Brandon Quittem & Walker America on the Convergence of Historic CyclesHistory has only lined up like this twice in 300 years: 1776 and 1914. Walker America tracked 12 major historical cycles and found that in both eras nearly all of them turned at once. Today, 7 of 12 have turned, and the count is climbing.Brandon Quittem and Walker break down where we really sit in the Fourth Turning, why every Fourth Turning in American history has ended in war, how the long term debt cycle points to a soft default on the dollar, and what the rise and fall of empires tells us about the years ahead. They also dig into generational amnesia, the strongman phase, the Gray Champion, and whether Bitcoin and AI make this time genuinely different.Brandon makes the case for Bitcoin as a pressure release valve on a system under strain. They close with practical steps to prepare: managing debt, protecting savings, building community, and staying high agency through turbulent years.⏱️ Timestamps:0:00 - Intro1:04 - Where Are We In The Fourth Turning?1:38 - The Fourth Turning Explained5:21 - Every Fourth Turning Has Ended In War6:06 - The Economic And Tech Cold War7:47 - Walker's Super Cycle Theory11:17 - History Has Only Lined Up Like This Twice12:11 - Ordinary Families Pay First15:25 - Bitcoin And AI: Is This Time Different?19:57 - The Long Term Debt Cycle And Soft Default21:48 - Why This Time Is Not Different25:04 - How Generations Repeat The Cycle40:56 - Polybius And The Cycle Of Governments46:07 - Generational Amnesia50:06 - The Strongman Phase: El Salvador51:33 - The Gray Champion And Republic Renewal56:57 - What Could Disrupt The Cycles57:40 - Bitcoin As A Pressure Release Valve1:08:02 - Which Cycles Have Turned And What's Next1:19:12 - How To Prepare: Wealth, Debt, Income1:21:50 - Build Your Community1:27:33 - The Astrological Cycles🔗 Guests:Brandon Quittem on X: https://x.com/BquittemBrandon's essays: https://brandonquittem.comWalker America on X: https://x.com/WalkerAmerica⚡Previous Episode:Broken Country Filmmakers Mira Metter & Mike Werry: https://youtu.be/JzY9L3vQdt4🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOINhttps://qrco.de/bfiDC6💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more. 👉 Visit btcmentor.io#FourthTurning #Bitcoin #SuperCycleTheory #NeilHowe #StraussHowe #BTCSessions #MentorSessions #HistoryRepeats #Cycles #Macro #DebtCycle #Dollar #AI #Anacyclosis #Polybius #Prepare #BrandonQuittem #WalkerAmerica
- 1 weeks ago1h 30m
"Not One Thing Has Gotten Better" | Canada Is Rotting In Real Time
Mentor Sessions EP 106: Broken Country Filmmakers Mira Metter & Mike Werry on Canada's Collapse, Healthcare, Housing, Taxes and Government ControlCanada used to be the envy of the world. Now people are asking whether they can survive here, let alone raise a family. Mira Metter and Mike Werry, the director and producer of the documentary Broken Country, spent months traveling the country to find out what broke and when. Their verdict a year later: not one thing they covered in the film has gotten better.They break down why Canadian hospitals run at 100 to 120% occupancy when 80% is considered safe, why roughly 20% of Canadians have no family doctor, and how a country of 40 million ended up with fewer MRI machines than Pennsylvania. On housing, prices have climbed about 375% in 20 years, going from roughly 2.5 times annual income in the '90s to 9 times nationally and 19 times in Toronto and Vancouver.We also get into rising taxes, immigration policy, censorship bills and cameras turned off in Parliament, the federal government's own 2040 social mobility scenario, Alberta and Quebec separatism, and why this is a warning for Americans watching the same policies at home.Chapters:0:00 - Intro0:52 - Canada From Envy Of The World To Survival3:33 - What's Wrong With Canadian Healthcare4:00 - Hospitals Running At 100-120% Capacity5:29 - 20% Of Canadians Have No Family Doctor6:42 - Fewer MRI Machines Than Pennsylvania7:20 - Hospitals Funded On Last Year's Patients10:03 - Healthcare Worked Until The Early 90s Cuts12:37 - Canada's Hidden Two-Tier Healthcare15:43 - Rural ER Closures Costing Lives20:31 - Can Canadian Healthcare Be Saved24:08 - ER Doctors Abused And Burned Out26:12 - Addiction, Homelessness And Housing27:03 - Housing From 2.5x To 19x Income27:55 - Housing Up 375% In 20 Years29:03 - How Housing Got Dumped On Cities31:01 - Rent Eating Half Your Paycheck33:49 - The Five-Year Mortgage Renewal Shock35:12 - The Money Printing Behind It All43:20 - Can Housing Ever Correct Without Breaking The Banks48:01 - How Canada's Government Failed49:36 - Safe Supply And The Opioid Crisis52:30 - Censorship Bills And Cameras Off In Parliament55:43 - Government-Subsidized Media58:31 - Bill C-22 And Digital Privacy1:01:38 - The 2015 Immigration Shift1:06:54 - Youth Unemployment And Temporary Foreign Workers1:09:55 - Entrepreneurs Leaving For The US1:11:31 - Wasted Resources: Ring Of Fire, LNG, Hydro1:17:10 - Walking Away From The US Trade Deal1:19:46 - Does It Get Worse Before It Gets Better1:20:52 - The Government's Own 2040 Warning1:22:39 - Alberta And Quebec Separatism1:25:52 - A Wake-Up Call For Americans1:26:50 - Not One Thing Has Gotten Better1:28:45 - Where To Watch Broken Country⚡ Watch Broken Country: https://brokencountry.com⚡Previous Episode:Max Hillebrand & Ben Perrin: https://youtu.be/GYyHcPEaS3Y🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOINhttps://qrco.de/bfiDC6💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.👉 Visit btcmentor.io#BrokenCountry #Canada #CanadaCollapse #CanadaHousingCrisis #CanadianEconomy #CanadaHealthcare #CostOfLiving #ImmigrationPolicy #GovernmentOverreach #FailedState #AlbertaSeparation #MiraMetter #MikeWerry #MentorSessions #BTCSessions
- 2 weeks ago1h 33m
Every Way To Outsmart Hackers, Big Tech And The Government | Max Hillebrand & Ben Perrin
Mentor Sessions EP 105 | Max Hillebrand & Ben Perrin on GrapheneOS, White Noise, Local AI, KYC-Free Bitcoin and Privacy Guerrilla WarfareIf you click next, next, next on mainstream tech, your privacy is fucked. But Max Hillebrand (White Noise, Marmot protocol, author of The Praxeology of Privacy) and Ben Perrin (BTC Sessions, Sovereign Sessions) argue the tools to route around surveillance have never been better. With an old laptop, an AI agent, Nostr and Zapstore, you can now build and ship a freedom tech app without knowing how to code.From there, they walk through a practical privacy stack: Pixel phones running GrapheneOS (8, 9 or 10, not the 11), Linux laptops, password managers, paying privately with gift cards and prepaid cards, Wasabi Wallet and peer-to-peer Bitcoin, Zapstore, Tor VPN, Amber and White Noise for encrypted messaging, local AI and trusted execution environments, self-hosting on an old laptop, quantum risk to encryption, and why privacy matters for honest price discovery.Timestamps:0:00 Cold Open0:41 Privacy Guerrilla Warfare: Can We Route Around the Grid?2:37 Build an Anonymous App Without Coding6:19 Why Your Data Is So Valuable7:38 Google Maps and Your Location Data9:40 GrapheneOS, Organic Maps and Linux10:53 Is the Privacy UX Gap Closing?15:23 Moving the Cultural Needle on Privacy20:12 Starting a Private Device Setup24:46 OS-Level ID Verification25:41 Best Pixels for GrapheneOS: 8, 9, 10, Not the 1127:05 Linux Laptops and Operating Systems28:54 Face Scan vs PIN30:27 Passwords and Password Managers32:19 Paying Privately With Gift Cards and Prepaid Cards35:07 Spending Bitcoin Through Friends37:13 Wasabi Wallet and On-Chain Privacy38:21 Getting Bitcoin Without KYC41:38 Zapstore, Tor VPN, Amber and White Noise48:00 How the Marmot Protocol Works55:52 How Disappearing Messages Work57:57 Private AI and Running Local Models1:01:29 Talking to Your AI Agents Through White Noise1:07:37 Private Cloud AI With Maple and PPQ1:08:43 Trusted Execution Environments: Cypherpunk Magic1:14:35 Self-Host Your Data on an Old Laptop1:17:14 Is Quantum a Threat to Encryption and Bitcoin?1:25:09 The Economic Case for Privacy1:29:00 Ben's Blond Streak Disguise1:29:55 Where to Find Max, Ben and White NoiseTools mentioned: GrapheneOS, Organic Maps, Debian, Qubes OS, Pop!_OS, Omarchy, Framework, Apple Lockdown Mode, KeePass, Silent.Link, Bitrefill, Coincards, Garmin Pay, Wasabi Wallet, Lightning, Hodl Hodl, Bisq, RoboSats, Zapstore, Tor VPN, Obscura VPN, Amber, White Noise, Marmot protocol, MLS, Nostr, Nostr VPN, FIPS, Routstr, Cashu, Fedimint, Bionic, Maple, PPQ.aiMax Hillebrand (Nostr only): https://towardsliberty.comWhite Noise: https://whitenoise.chatSovereign Sessions (tutorials): https://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions⚡Previous Episode:Jim Rickards & Simon Dixon: https://youtu.be/djc-F6TPfos🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOINhttps://qrco.de/bfiDC6💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more. 👉 Visit btcmentor.io#BitcoinPrivacy #GrapheneOS #Nostr #MaxHillebrand #BenPerrin #WhiteNoise #WasabiWallet #LocalAI #SelfHosting #FreedomTech #Cypherpunk #Bitcoin #BTCSessions #Privacy #Zapstore
- 3 weeks ago1h 33m
CIA & Wall St. Insider Confirms the Plan to Freeze Your Money | Dixon & Rickards
Mentor Sessions EP 104 | Jim Rickards & Simon Dixon on the petrodollar, who runs the world, the AI bubble, dollar collapse, gold vs Bitcoin, stablecoin bank runs and frozen bank accounts. Two wars, a quiet Russian diesel deal, and a $2 trillion AI build-out that one of these guests calls the greatest bubble in history. James Rickards and Simon Dixon sit down to map who is actually calling the shots in the Iran and Ukraine conflicts, and what it means for the dollar, gold, and your Bitcoin. Rickards war gamed finance as a weapon for the Pentagon, advised the CIA on financial threats, and was general counsel at Long Term Capital Management when the Fed stepped in. In this conversation you'll learn why he argues the debasement trade is nonsense and the dollar is getting stronger, why China's yuan can't become a reserve currency, and why he believes an unregulated stablecoin bank run could trigger a panic in the Treasury market. Simon Dixon pushes back with the view that war is the product, that the petrodollar is being quietly renegotiated as China becomes Saudi Arabia's main oil buyer, and that both gold and Bitcoin matter in the programmable control grid he sees coming. You'll also hear a sharp breakdown of the AI bubble, why superintelligence won't be achieved, and the latest supply-chain attacks on hardware wallets. ⏱️ Timestamps:0:00 - Intro0:33 - Who Is Calling The Shots In These Wars2:33 - Who Really Controls Ukraine's Leadership3:38 - Why Iran Has No Exit Strategy6:46 - US-Russia Deal That Could End Two Wars9:25 - Why Only China Russia And US Matter12:16 - Simon Dixon: War Serves The Power Structure15:13 - Midterms Weapons Shortages And Trump Agenda18:46 - Seventy Years Of Petrodollar Monetary History23:47 - Bigger Picture Above Trump And World Orders26:19 - Why The Debasement Trade Is Nonsense29:05 - China's Gold Reserves And Yuan Limitations32:08 - Using Inflation To Solve The Debt Problem33:09 - Petrodollar Shift From Saudi Arabia To China49:26 - Two Trillion Dollar AI Infrastructure Bubble55:42 - Why Superintelligence Cannot Be Achieved56:11 - Ice-Nine Freezing Accounts And Redemptions1:00:06 - Rickards Bitcoin Casino Chip Metaphor Explained1:01:08 - Stablecoin Bank Run Risks On The Horizon1:03:55 - Simon Dixon Stablecoins Versus Bank Deposits1:26:48 - Hardware Wallet Attacks Targeting Self Custody1:31:49 - Simon Dixon New Book Game Of Money 🔗 Links & Resources:James Rickards newsletter - https://rickardswarning.comSimon Dixon on X - https://x.com/SimonDixonTwit This one is for the people trying to make sense of the whole board at once, not just the headlines. If that's you, join us live for the next Mentor Session and drop your take on war-is-the-product vs the-dollar-is-fine in the comments. We read them. ⚡Previous Episode:Michael Howell: https://youtu.be/Tzyifqs-Bg0🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOINhttps://qrco.de/bfiDC6💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more. 👉 Visit btcmentor.io #Bitcoin #JamesRickards #SimonDixon #Petrodollar #DollarCollapse #AIBubble #Stablecoins #CBDC #Gold #GoldVsBitcoin #DeDollarization #IranWar #Geopolitics #SelfCustody #BTCSessions
- 3 weeks ago1h 5m
If You Don't Get Global Liquidity, You Don't Get The Everything Bubble | Michael Howell
Mentor Sessions EP 103: Michael Howell on Global Liquidity, the Everything Bubble & When Bitcoin RalliesGlobal liquidity is still rising in absolute terms, but the momentum is cracking fast, and that shift is already bending bond markets, credit spreads, and Bitcoin. Michael Howell breaks down exactly what's moving underneath the surface.In this episode you'll see why Howell calls Bitcoin a "liquidity sponge," how the debt maturity wall forces old debt back into the system, and why roughly 80% of all financial market transactions are really just debt refinancing. You'll learn how to read the four indicators Howell watches before every crisis, why the euro system has no safe asset, how Japan quietly devalued its debt through a weaker yen, and why China is "basically Japan ten years later" buying gold for 23 straight months. You'll also hear his specific call: Bitcoin may struggle for three months, then do quite well into 2027 as Treasury QE monetizes government spending.⏱️ Timestamps:0:00 - Intro1:06 - Is Global Liquidity Expanding Or Contracting?2:33 - Momentum Indicator Signals Liquidity Rollover3:25 - Why This Is a 5-6 Year Debt Refinancing Cycle4:28 - The Debt Maturity Wall Explained5:59 - Debt-To-Liquidity Ratio And Crisis Thresholds7:20 - Where Liquidity Shifted: CapEx And AI Data Centers8:54 - Treasury QE: The New Hidden Liquidity Conduit12:54 - Fed September Hike And Liquidity Management13:17 - Why 80% Of Lending Is Collateral Backed14:12 - MOVE Index And Rising Bond Volatility Risk15:42 - Bessent Buybacks Targeting Off-The-Run Treasuries16:26 - Fed Managing Repo Spreads And Bank Reserves17:30 - What The Repo Market Actually Is20:05 - SOFR Spreads And The Danger Line24:20 - What Really Drives The MOVE Index Higher25:49 - Are We Heading Into A Financial Crisis?26:53 - Two-Year Yields vs SOFR: Rates Rising29:24 - Where Interest Rates Could Peak33:25 - Bitcoin As A Liquidity Sponge: The Framework34:17 - Howell's Medium-Term Bitcoin Bull Case35:43 - Yield Curve Signals And Bitcoin Bull Market Timing40:38 - The Eurodollar Market And Gilts42:36 - France, Germany And The Oat-Bund Spread43:29 - No Safe Asset In The Euro System45:26 - Why The Eurozone May Not Hold Together47:18 - Japan, The Yen Carry Trade And Weaker Yen49:30 - How Japan Devalued Its Debt Successfully51:39 - China Is Japan Ten Years Later53:07 - China Printing Money And Buying Gold To Devalue56:16 - Could The US Engineer A Domestic Devaluation?58:25 - How Bitcoin Reacts To Chinese And Treasury Liquidity1:02:04 - Final Thoughts On AI, Private Credit And RiskMichael Howell runs Global Liquidity Indexes and publishes the Capital Wars Substack, where he tracks global liquidity data and the indicators referenced throughout this conversation.🔗 Links & Resources:→ Michael Howell on X: https://x.com/crossbordercap→ Michael Howell on Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/→ GL Indexes: https://www.glindexes.com/⚡Previous Episode:Rational Root: https://youtu.be/ZkpoEFOQ_cM🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOINhttps://qrco.de/bfiDC6💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more. 👉 Visit btcmentor.io #Bitcoin #GlobalLiquidity #EverythingBubble #MichaelHowell #BTCSessions #MentorSessions #FinancialCrisis #BitcoinMacro #TreasuryQE #DebtCycle #CapitalWars #BondMarket #YieldCurve #LiquiditySponge #Liquidity
- 4 weeks ago1h 1m
12 Bitcoin Charts, One Painfully Obvious Conclusion | Rational Root
Mentor Sessions Ep 102: Rational Root breaks down Bitcoin on-chain data, the 2026 cycle bottom, ETF cost basis, the four year cycle and his macro outlook.The Bitcoin bottom looks like it's already in, and the on-chain data says this was the least retail driven cycle in history. Rational Root joins the show with a stack of charts to explain exactly why price held at $60K through the Cold Card hack, the chain split, and the biggest ETF outflows ever recorded.You'll see how the short-term holder cost basis breakout flipped the market bullish, why the ETF cost basis rejected price twice before the breakout, and how the four year spiral chart is behaving at this bottom compared to every prior cycle. You'll learn why Rational Root bought STRC at a 25% discount during the panic, what the digital credit stress test revealed, and why he thinks an all-time high could land before June 2027. You'll also get his candid macro read on AI, ISM manufacturing, interest rates, and the midterm cycle, plus why diminishing returns are likely moving forward even as the cycle keeps chugging along.This is a practical, data-first conversation for holders trying to decide whether to keep stacking or wait for a lower low that may never come.⏱️ Timestamps:0:00 - Intro0:36 - Meet Rational Root and What's Top Of Mind1:27 - Price Action And The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Breakout3:21 - Why This Bottom Looks Like Every Prior Cycle5:05 - Why We Never Got The Blow-Off Top This Cycle8:19 - The Momentum Indicator And Mild Capitulation Explained9:04 - How Institutional Buyers Dampened The Drawdown11:24 - The Four Year Spiral Chart And Diminishing Returns13:04 - Will The Spiral Chart Eventually Break?18:05 - The ETF Cost Basis And The Second Leg Up20:56 - ETF Inflows, Outflows And The Digital Credit Stress Test22:39 - The On-Chain Value Map And Fair Value25:57 - Buying STRC At A 25% Discount During The Panic28:07 - Cold Card Hack, Chain Split And Price That Wouldn't Break31:22 - How Fast Can The Recovery Come From Here?33:54 - An All-Time High Before June 2027?39:11 - Macro: ISM, The Business Cycle And Midterms45:52 - AI, Fiat And Why Bitcoin Still Matters More52:42 - What Gave Rational Root Pause This Cycle55:04 - How He Actually Feels About Bitcoin Right Now1:00:31 - Where To Find Rational Root's Charts🔗 Links & Resources:→ Follow Rational Root on X: https://x.com/therationalroot→ Rational Root Newsletter & Charts: https://www.bitcoinstrategyplatform.com/🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOINhttps://qrco.de/bfiDC6💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more. 👉 Visit btcmentor.io #Bitcoin #BTC #BTCSessions #OnChainAnalysis #BitcoinCycle #FourYearCycle #RationalRoot #BitcoinBottom #BitcoinETF #ShortTermHolder #SpiralChart #BitcoinMacro #DiminishingReturns #BitcoinPrice #BitcoinBullMarket #AllTimeHigh #Bitcoin2027 #BitcoinPrediction
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