Julian Morris | Tom Nelson Pod #386

Julian Morris presents slides on climate change: global temperatures have risen since 1850 and human greenhouse gas emissions plausibly contribute via radiative forcing, but he argues harms are not worsening. Using the EM-DAT disaster database, he notes reported extreme-weather disasters rose while geophysical disasters rose similarly, suggesting reporting and population effects; meanwhile climate-disaster mortality has fallen over 90% since the 1920s due to adaptation, technology, trade, infrastructure, warnings, and better buildings. He highlights long-term declines in energy and CO2 per GDP and potential decoupling, attributing progress to innovation and institutions like free markets and property rights. He critiques democratically unaccountable NGO–foundation–intergovernmental coalitions, discusses perverse incentives in conservation (rhino horn trade bans), ethanol mandates, and possible blockchain tracking for wildlife products.00:00 Meet Julian Morris01:02 Is the World Warming01:33 Are Humans Causing It02:24 Disaster Counts Rising04:51 Why Disasters Get Counted06:21 Deaths From Disasters Fall07:46 How Humans Adapt11:03 Should We Worry Next11:34 Efficiency Cuts Emissions13:57 Energy Decouples From CO216:20 Fuel Shifts Over Time21:13 Tech Efficiency Breakthroughs23:18 Projecting To Net Zero24:37 Environmental Kuznets Curve27:24 Institutions Drive Decoupling29:48 Policy Takeaways And Tradeoffs31:54 Global Carbon Intensity Trends32:22 Hurricanes And Alarmism32:47 Lighting Progress Metrics33:44 Segmented Sleep Debate35:07 Democratic Deficit Ecosystem37:32 Climate Coalition Incentives39:39 Declining Climate Credibility42:13 Availability Cascades Explained43:35 Perverse NGO Incentives46:10 Rhino Horn Trade Ban Fallout50:42 Saving Species With Trade51:59 Ethanol Baptist Bootleggers54:54 Blockchain For Provenance57:26 Wrap Up And Resourceshttps://reason.org/author/julian-morris/https://x.com/Julian_MorrisDefending Democracy from the DoDOs: How Power Escapes Democratic Control: https://laweconcenter.org/resources/defending-democracy-from-the-dodos-part-i-how-power-escapes-democratic-control/=========Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summariesMy Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1