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by Thomas Nelson
Interviews and presentations on climate/energy realism and more, with guests including Will Happer, Jerome Corsi, Marc Morano, Carl-Otto Weiss, Valentina Zharkova, Christopher Essex, Henrik Svensmark, Patrick Moore, Ross McKitrick, Willie Soon, Susan Crockford, Peter Ridd, Christopher Monckton, and Richard Lindzen.
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- 2 days ago59 min
Ed Berry: “Nature Controls the CO2 Level” #429
Ed Berry presents a step-by-step, nontechnical overview of his theoretical climate physics work, arguing that “consensus” and authority claims are not science and that climate policy relies on three assumptions, focusing on A1: humans caused all the CO2 rise. He says A1 depends on a false sub-assumption that human CO2 stays longer than natural CO2, proposing a “climate equivalence principle” that identical molecules behave the same. Using IPCC carbon-cycle data and a linear systems model, he derives an atmospheric e-time of ~3.5 years and estimates human CO2 contributes only a few percent, supported by delta-14C and temperature-leading-CO2 studies. He also discusses climate lawsuits (including Held v. Montana), political influence, and criticism of DOE/CO2 Coalition positions.00:00 Meet Ed Berry00:53 From Clouds to Climate01:49 Why Consensus Fails03:11 Scientific Method Basics05:16 Three Climate Assumptions06:55 Debunking CO2 Lifetime Claim08:35 Climate Equivalence Principle09:21 IPCC Carbon Cycle Data12:48 Flows and Human Share14:11 Building a Carbon Model16:26 E-Time and Linearity19:40 Deriving Balance Levels21:30 Finding IPCC E-Times25:02 Human vs Natural CO2 Split27:21 What 420 ppm Implies27:58 Systems Model Math29:29 Partitioning Human CO231:37 IPCC Cycle Contradiction34:24 Courtney Endorsement35:45 Delta 14C Evidence39:33 Interpreting Bomb Curve42:09 Temperature Leads CO244:21 Proofs Summary48:29 Montana Lawsuit Setup50:51 WEF Influence Claims52:11 DOE Report Problem53:19 Koonin And CO2C Critique56:48 Group Positions Wrap57:48 Q&A And Closinghttps://edberry.com/=========Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summariesMy Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1
- 1 weeks ago54 min
Will Wilkinson on his Will Happer biography: “Standing Up for Science” #428
Will Wilkinson discusses a biography he was hired to write about Princeton physicist William Happer, combining four chapters of life story with a climate-focused second half arguing science has been politicized. He describes Happer’s decades-long career, including inventing the sodium laser guide star for missile defense and work adapted for medical lung imaging, plus Happer’s “trust and verify” approach and skepticism of models over measurements. They cover Happer’s CO2 Coalition role, controversy at Princeton, colleagues’ contributions (e.g., Lindzen, Koonin, Ridd), and comparisons to Lysenkoism and past scientific dissent. The author stresses curiosity, civil communication, and avoiding fear-driven climate hysteria.00:00 Meet Will Wilkinson00:27 Writing Happer Biography01:45 Happer Science Legacy02:42 Climate Views Adaptation03:29 Laser Guide Star Explained05:12 Trust and Verify Mindset06:04 Princeton Controversy07:14 Famous Colleagues Stories09:18 Childhood and Formation10:58 Standing Up for Science13:28 Lysenkoism and Dogma16:38 Outsiders and Discovery21:15 Curiosity and Measuring23:25 CO2 Politics and Money24:45 Book Release and Coalition25:43 Rogan Episode and Outreach27:07 Documentary and Prior Bio28:33 Reluctant Scientist Profile30:10 Working Life at Princeton31:05 Red Team Blue Team Fallout32:01 Middle Ground Climate Debate34:46 Colleagues and Reef Controversy37:29 Skepticism After COVID41:38 Single Source of Truth Quotes44:24 Kindness Over Division48:41 Hope Against Climate Hysteria50:23 Meaningful Memoirs and AI54:04 Wrap Up and ThanksWill Wilkinson’s web site: https://www.meaningfulmemoirs.com/=========Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summariesMy Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1
- 1 weeks ago1h 14m
Jonathan Cohler: “ Fossil fuel combustion drove essentially none of the atmospheric CO2 growth” #427
Jonathan Cohler presents a newly submitted paper using mass conservation, isotopic signatures (delta 13C), and multiple datasets to apply the Keeling relation and infer a consistent intercept near -13.2‰ across sites and time spans. He argues this makes fossil fuels (signature ~-28‰) at most 26% of net atmospheric CO2 change and, using preindustrial constraints, essentially ~0–1.3%, contradicting claims by IPCC, NASA, NOAA, EPA, and the CO2 Coalition. He says CO2 residence time is ~3.8 years and attributes rising CO2 to natural temperature-driven ocean/soil outgassing. He criticizes the CO2 Coalition for conflating accounting identities with causation, describes harassment, and says he resigned.00:00 New Paper Claim01:29 Three Inputs Setup03:25 Isotope Signatures 10106:05 Keeling Relation Explained10:17 Datasets And Intercepts13:38 Solving For Fossil Fraction22:22 Why Fossil Dominance Fails25:16 Rejecting The Conclusion28:04 Carbon Cycle Turnover31:45 What Drives CO2 Rise33:56 Ancient CO2 And Whataboutism36:53 CO2 Coalition Errors Teaser37:38 Accounting vs Causation39:23 Feynman on Conservation40:37 What Proves Causality41:37 Atmospheric Balance Equation42:53 Coalition Paper Misreads46:25 Molecules Not Labeled48:08 Residuals Aren't Attribution49:56 Isotopes Discriminate Sources51:27 Airborne Fraction Fallacy53:41 Retention and Cycle Time56:02 Harassment and Resignation01:03:18 CO2 Forcing and Policy Costs01:08:51 X Feedback and Contact01:13:38 Wrap Up and Linkshttps://x.com/cohlerhttps://papers.jcohler.com/=========Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summariesMy Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1
- 2 weeks ago51 min
James Tooley: “ You don't need government for education” #426
James Tooley describes two decades researching “low-cost private schools” serving poor families in India, Africa, rural China, and war-torn countries, arguing parents choose them because government/public schools often abandon children. He cites widespread enrollment (e.g., majorities in parts of Lagos and Kampala), higher standardized test performance, no gender bias, affordability around 10% of family spending, and sustainability as small businesses. He now finds a similar U.S. phenomenon in hybrid/micro schools, visiting examples in Pine Ridge (Onward Learning), rural Mississippi, refugee-serving Clarkston, and rural Oregon, and surveying 5,390 parents: about 4% use low-tuition private schools. He discusses limited, careful roles for philanthropy, and worries about dependence on government ESAs.00:00 Meet James Tooley01:03 Hyderabad Discovery03:25 Government School Reality05:37 Makoko Lagos Expedition07:49 Kibera Ghana China Proof11:49 Beautiful Tree Thesis13:04 War Torn Africa Schools15:48 Five Key Features21:06 Federations And Pushback22:02 Low Cost Schools In America25:53 Pine Ridge Onward Learning29:46 Mississippi Trailer School33:19 Refugees And Oregon Example36:08 National Survey Findings41:45 Philanthropy And Donations43:26 Quality Assurance Debate46:33 School Choice ESA Concerns49:57 Where To Follow James50:46 Final ReflectionsThe Beautiful Tree: https://a.co/d/032zFHgWReally Good Schools: Global Lessons for High-Caliber, Low-Cost Education: https://a.co/d/01VMoY3rhttps://x.com/james_tooleyhttps://uk.linkedin.com/in/james-tooley-320a8410=========Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summariesMy Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1
- 2 weeks ago58 min
Tom Harris: “Pushing back against climate hysteria in Canada” #425
Tom Harris argues Canada’s claim of warming twice the global average is unreliable because northern data coverage is sparse and “homogenized” station adjustments may exaggerate trends. He questions the meaning of average temperature and says Canada’s record shows a step change around 1998, consistent with El Niño and possibly the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, not steady greenhouse-gas forcing. He cites extreme-weather records peaking in the 1930s and references Heartland’s Climate Change Reconsidered and Roger Pielke’s datasets as showing little detected change in many extremes. Harris then describes organizing local activists, using Saul Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals, rehearsing questions, and bypassing media censorship to challenge municipal climate policies.00:00 Meet Tom Harris00:19 Canada Warming Claims00:41 Is Warming Bad03:21 So Called Averages05:13 Overlapping Ranges08:06 Why Start 194811:08 Heat Records Evidence11:54 Sparse Arctic Stations14:39 Homogenized Adjustments17:00 Step Change Not CO218:57 Hickey Speaks Out21:59 Natural Cycles Theory22:59 PR Versus Evidence24:22 Extreme Weather Database25:56 Heartland Reports28:32 Warmer Means Milder31:07 Pielke Teaser31:19 Global Extremes Database31:51 P Factor Explained32:30 Translator Not Climatologist33:33 Drilling Into Continents34:48 Wildfire History Context37:23 Heatwave Data Concerns38:31 Local Activism Playbook40:06 Alinsky Rules In Action42:49 Debate Questions And Ridicule47:16 Training Volunteers Nationwide51:59 Beating Media Censorship53:55 Groups Funding And Contact56:17 Practice Sessions And Wins57:43 Wrap Up Resources icsc-canada.com sensiblechange.cahttps://x.com/TomHarrisICSChttps://drtomharris.substack.com/=========Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summariesMy Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1
- 3 weeks ago40 min
Dai Ato: “ Spurious Correlation Between Atmospheric CO2 Increase and Human Emissions” #424
Dai Ato presents findings from three papers arguing atmospheric CO2 rise is largely natural, claiming multivariate analyses reject human emissions as a significant predictor of annual CO2 increases while sea surface temperature (SST) is significant. He says detrended annual-change comparisons show emissions vs CO2 change has near-zero correlation, while SST retains moderate correlation, consistent with CO2 solubility in water. He also claims ice-core CO2 reconstructions are incorrect and that temperature leads specific humidity, rejecting CO2–water vapor positive feedback; absorbed shortwave and total solar irradiance correlate with SST while CO2 is negligible or negative. In Q&A, he expects the Keeling Curve to keep rising, COVID emission drops to have little effect, and rejects a stable 280 ppm preindustrial CO2.00:00 Intro And Agenda00:39 Three Paper Overview04:01 CO2 Rise Not Human07:05 Detrending Spurious Links10:33 Water Vapor Feedback Tested13:19 Solar And Albedo Drivers17:12 Past Evidence SST Leads21:50 Global Temperature Averaging23:58 Key Takeaways And DOE26:04 Why I Wrote These Papers33:06 Ice Core Reconstruction Issues34:17 Closing Thoughts And Q&Ahttps://x.com/info45037254=========Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summariesMy Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1
- 3 weeks ago1h 19m
Ron Clutz Part 2: “Highlights from 3400 Climate Blog Posts” #423
Ron Clutz continues a three-part framework on climate change: humans cause warming, warming is dangerous, and government can stop it. He argues observed warming can be explained by post–Little Ice Age recovery plus multidecadal oscillations and solar-orbital effects, and says “alarmists” deny these. He describes a taxpayer-funded “climate scare machine” and cites a Climate Change Business Journal estimate of a $3.4T/year global climate industry. Using Joseph D’Aleo’s materials, he disputes claims about heatwaves, storms, droughts, wildfires, ice loss, ocean acidification, health, and food, then focuses on Arctic sea ice cycles and sea-level model projections versus tide gauges. He stresses climate is local (Köppen zones) and says climate policies are wasteful, ineffective, and harmful, citing project failures, costs, and energy poverty.00:00 Framework Recap01:07 Natural Warming Factors03:56 Climate Scare Machine07:59 Eleven Empty Claims13:56 Polar Bears and Sea Ice20:00 Sea Level Scare Tactics28:27 Climates Are Local35:13 Warming Impacts Summary35:59 Can Governments Stop It37:56 Energy Transition Reality40:19 Why Hydrocarbons Rule42:06 Energy Mix Big Picture43:47 Trillions Visualized45:22 Waste One Missing Funds45:59 Waste Two Project Failures48:35 Waste Three Blade Graveyards49:13 Waste Four Operational Collapse50:18 Hydrogen And Biofuels51:32 Fear Sells Climate Policy53:06 Policy Weapons And Results55:51 Energy Poverty And Jobs59:09 Rare Metals And Land Use01:01:40 Better Priorities Consensus01:02:29 Absurd Costly Pointless01:03:59 Cartoons And Media Satire01:09:33 Arctic Update And Data01:13:28 Wrap Up Links And Wildfireshttps://rclutz.com/=========Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summariesMy Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1
- Aug 18, 20261h 25m
Henrik Svensmark: “Cosmic Rays, aerosols, and clouds” #422
Henrik Svensmark discusses how solar activity modulates cosmic rays, which ionize the atmosphere and can help form aerosols that grow into cloud condensation nuclei, potentially altering clouds and Earth’s energy balance. He describes lab experiments showing more aerosols with increased ionization, critiques models that predicted no cloud effect, and presents observations from Forbush decreases where drops in cosmic rays are followed days later by reduced aerosols, cloud changes, and radiative-budget responses. He argues solar-cycle forcing may be ~1–1.5 W/m² and could affect CO2 sensitivity. On longer timescales, he links supernova-driven cosmic-ray variations to glaciations, ocean temperature, organic carbon burial, oxygen production, and biodiversity, while noting funding and career pressures.00:00 Cosmic Rays and Clouds00:42 Meet Henrik Svensmark02:59 Solar Activity Basics03:31 IPCC Forcing Debate05:13 Sunspots and Cosmic Rays07:03 Cosmic Ray Showers08:55 Isotopes as Solar Proxies11:48 Climate Correlations15:17 Ocean Heat Amplification17:55 Clouds as Amplifier19:39 How CCN Form22:22 Testing in Chambers24:59 Models vs Reality27:52 Forbush Natural Experiments36:14 Fixing the Physics41:17 Billion Year Timescales42:08 Galactic Spiral Arms44:02 Star Formation Setup44:33 Open Clusters Explained45:57 Mapping Nearby Clusters46:53 Supernovas Meet Climate48:27 Zooming Into Ice Ages51:31 Nutrients And Carbon Isotopes53:54 Organic Burial Correlation55:15 Deep Time Starbursts57:12 Oxygen And Complex Life59:51 Dwarf Galaxies Trigger Stars01:02:18 Fossils And Diversity Curves01:05:13 Shelf Area Drives Richness01:09:04 Area Normalization Test01:11:34 Big Picture Conclusions01:13:35 Funding And Career Risks01:22:15 Critiques And Solar Events01:25:16 Wrap Up And FarewellSvensmark: The Cloud Mystery https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANMTPF1blpQThe Chilling Stars [2008]: https://www.amazon.com/Chilling-Stars-New-Theory-Climate/dp/1840468661Papers: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2843-3417=========Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summariesMy Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1
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About Tom Nelson
Interviews and presentations on climate/energy realism and more, with guests including Will Happer, Jerome Corsi, Marc Morano, Carl-Otto Weiss, Valentina Zharkova, Christopher Essex, Henrik Svensmark, Patrick Moore, Ross McKitrick, Willie Soon, Susan Crockford, Peter Ridd, Christopher Monckton, and Richard Lindzen.
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