Andy May: “The Sun vs CO2” | Tom Nelson Pod #389

Andy May discusses how Earth’s energy imbalance and ocean heat content relate to solar radiation versus greenhouse-gas downwelling IR. He argues IR photons are lower energy and absorbed in the ocean’s top micrometers–millimeter (thermal/electromagnetic skin), so it cannot directly heat the mixed layer; instead it may reduce upward heat loss by altering the skin-layer temperature gradient, while sunlight penetrates meters to greater than 100 m and warms the bulk ocean. He critiques NASA-style energy-flow diagrams for confusing one-way radiative fluxes (e.g., 340 W/m²) with net heat (e.g., 58 W/m²). He highlights large uncertainties in EEI and OHC due to sparse, inconsistent datasets, cool-skin effects, short Argo-era records, and oscillations like AMO/ENSO, making partitioning of causes uncertain.00:00 Sun vs CO2 Setup00:35 Why IR Differs02:52 Ocean Skin Layers05:48 Photon Energy Debate07:55 Cool Skin Impacts10:01 Energy Diagram Myths13:33 EEI and OHC Limits18:17 Ocean Data Disagreements23:55 Surface EEI Variability26:38 IR Cannot Heat Deep29:51 Bottom Line Uncertainty31:18 Q&A and Critiques34:52 Modeling and Coverage36:41 Regional Trend Map41:21 Closing Takeawayshttps://x.com/Andy_May_Writerhttps://andymaypetrophysicist.com/=========Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summariesMy Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1