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- Jul 15, 20263 min
The Inflation Data Is Telling A Different Story Than What People Are Feeling
Today’s Letter Is Brought To You By TikTok for Business!Most companies are already spending on search, social, and display ads. But many are still underestimating TikTok for Business.With 200M+ monthly active users in the U.S. and 51% unique reach, TikTok for Business delivers audiences you can’t reach on other platforms. In 2025 alone, 11.8 million crypto-related videos were published on the platform. The conversation is already happening there. The question is whether your brand is part of it.TikTok for Business offers full-funnel advertising solutions built for performance — combining creator-led storytelling, performance advertising, and robust measurement tools to drive business impact.If you’re a founder, CMO, or growth lead, check out how TikTok for Business can help you accomplish your goals.To investors,Inflation appears to have peaked and is now starting to come down according to the CPI report yesterday. The government reported 3.5% CPI and core CPI came in at 2.6%. These are ice cold numbers compared to economists expectations.The headline CPI number fell -0.4% in the last month, which is the largest inflation decline month-over-month in more than 6 years. Naturally, this report is being celebrated by economists, politicians, and investors. The lower numbers significantly decrease the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates later this year.A big contributing factor to the free fall in official inflation numbers is a -9% drop in gasoline and fuel prices. You can draw a straight line between consumer inflation and the hopeful ending of the Iran war.But there is one big problem with this report that no one is talking about.The data is tricking everyone. If you are an investor or a business executive, this report makes things seem like things are getting better. And technically that is true in terms of rate of change, but the average American doesn’t care about the rate of change. They simply care about the aggregate cost of living.Take New York City as an example. This weekend it was reported that median rents in the city have risen 8% in the last year and hit a new all-time high of $5,295 per month. I don’t care what the CPI number says, majority of people can’t afford to pay $5,000 per month to live in an apartment.A similar story is playing out at your local grocery store. Eggs, milk, peanut butter, and a plethora of other items have skyrocketed in the last 5 or 6 years. Every time I go to the grocery store, it feels like I am guaranteed to spend $75 - $100. Again, the data can say whatever it wants, yet this rise in cost is putting ridiculous pressure on the average American.The reason I feel so strongly about this situation is because I have started spending more time talking to people outside of the business and finance community. I wanted to understand what their actual experience has been. Not what the data says, but what are the people feeling in their life. Additionally, I wanted to understand why socialism is on the rise and there seems to be a widespread belief that financial success is a result worth condemning.In an effort to get answers, I recently went to Yankee Stadium and asked people for thoughts on why everything is so expensive. You can watch the video below. [warning: there is some foul language from folks, but I promise no fun was had by anyone :) ]My big takeaway from these conversations was everyone knows life got more expensive, yet none of them can articulate why it happened. There was no talk of CPI, the national debt, or interest rates. That isn’t in the vernacular of the average citizen.They speak in terms of gas, groceries, and rent. Each of those items has exploded in cost over the last half-decade, which is changing the way people act and think.So just remember, while it was great to see the lower CPI numbers from the government report yesterday, there is no relief on the way for majority of US citizens. Prices are not coming back down any time soon. A lower inflation number merely means prices are going up slower than they were, but they are still continuing to increase.We need widespread deflation in consumer prices to actually have an impact on affordability in the country. That means we have to build more housing, reduce regulation for small business, and hope AI can flourish in a way that creates the promised productivity boom.The situation is not ideal. You have a government incentivized to keep printing money and destroying the p
- Apr 7, 20262 min
These AI Agents Want To Help You Make Money
To investors,The Age of Automation is upon us. I have been writing about it and tweeting about it for almost a decade. Take Bitcoin as an example. It is an automated central bank that continues to manage the most disciplined and transparent monetary policy in the world.Even the skeptics have to admit that the idea has been adopted by hundreds of millions of people globally.But now automation is going to come for the rest of finance. The recent tech innovations related to artificial intelligence will allow new financial firms to be built with armies of AI agents that replace hundreds of human employees.I know this because I am actively building ProCap Financial, the first publicly traded agentic finance firm.Our first product, called Silvia, has automated away many of the consumer finance functions at large institutions. Rather than hire lots of people, we are able to help thousands of multi-millionaires gain better insights into their portfolios leveraging the latest AI models and a suite of proprietary agents.Silvia has more than $30 billion of assets on the platform in under a year. The average user has a net worth of at least $2.5 million and they ask Silvia about 18 questions per week. Like I said, the age of automation is upon us.But we are not stopping at consumer finance. Our goal is to build a financial firm that automates the products and services from traditional players, but does it with AI agents in pursuit of helping independent investors make money.With this perspective as context, I am happy to share that ProCap Financial is releasing it’s second product today: ProCap Insights.ProCap Insights is the research division of the company, but it also happens to be the first agentic research shop on Wall Street. We only have one human overseeing the AI system being used to conduct research, write the analysis, and publish the reports.I fundamentally believe the machines are smarter than the humans. AI is very good at finding hidden insights across financial markets. The same technology allows us to create research faster and cheaper than human teams too. This is what real automation looks like.The big focus of ProCap Insights is to help you make money. Some of the initial research we are launching with includes:* 3 Stocks That Win From Both Tariff Refunds and the Iran Oil Shock* Stocks to Buy for Kevin Warsh’s Fed Regime* Insiders Are Dumping Tech Stocks and Buying Energy* 5 Stocks That Win From $166 Billion in Tariff RefundsYou can read about the launch of ProCap Insights in the Wall Street Journal this morning: Click here. Or you can watch part of my segment from this morning on CNBC’s Squawk Box:If you are looking for investment ideas and believe that AI is smarter than humans, you should consider subscribing to ProCap Insights. Anyone who subscribes in the next 48 hours will get grandfathered in at a 60% discount to the normal price.We are laser-focused on helping independent investors make money. And the AI agents are helping us answer your questions via Silvia, or surface interesting investment ideas via Insights.We will keep building even more. Have a great day. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony J. PomplianoFounder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)What’s Actually Happening To Bitcoin & The Economy Right NowJordi Visser is a veteran macro inve
- Feb 16, 20264 min
My 10 Takeaways From Bitcoin Investor Week
Today’s letter is brought to you by MoonPay!Join over 30 million users who trust MoonPay as their universal crypto account.We make it easy to buy and sell crypto in over 180 countries, with no-to-low fees and all your favourite payment methods like Venmo, PayPal, Apple Pay, card and more.MoonPay is the only account you need in the DeFi ecosystem. Trade, stake and build your portfolio all in one place.Start now and get zero MoonPay fees on your first transaction.To investors,I hosted Bitcoin Investor Week in New York City last week. Thousands of investors attended to hear from more than 45 speakers or meet new people at the various side events and happy hours. Conversations ranged from understanding the recent drawdown in bitcoin’s price to underwriting the odds of deflation to unpacking the convergence of artificial intelligence and bitcoin.Here are the major takeaways that I had from the week:* Bitcoin investors have been here before — many investors have previously held bitcoin through numerous drawdowns of 50% or more, so there was a lack of panic that was noticeable throughout the event. Multiple members of the media explicitly called this out to me as well. This lack of panic gives me the idea that odds are higher that the current bear market will be shallower and shorter than historical comparisons. * Institutions have arrived — past bitcoin conferences were filled with promises of institutions on the way. The conversation this year was centered around the progress that institutions have made in bitcoin, including the highly successful launch of the Bitcoin ETFs, the various public companies that hold bitcoin on their balance sheet, the accelerated adoption of digital credit, the fast growth of stablecoins, the current initiatives in tokenization, and the requirement that each legacy financial organization have a bitcoin or crypto strategy.* Bitcoin and artificial intelligence are on a collision course — it was nearly impossible to have a conversation with a professional investor or an entrepreneur without both technologies coming up. It is obvious that bitcoin and AI are the future of finance. There was plenty of speculation on how AI agents will transact or store value, so naturally bitcoin and stablecoins were the popular answers. * Deflation is a big risk — my personal view is that deflationary pressure from tariffs, deportations, artificial intelligence and robotics are swallowing the US economy. I asked many speakers or attendees whether they agreed and the majority of answers were aligned with my view. There are some outstanding concerns about the economic data or the government’s continued money printing, but overall people seemed satisfied that high inflation was not going to be a problem in the short-term.* Financial advisors are holding or adding bitcoin to portfolios — Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan explained that a recent survey showed that 99% of financial advisors who already had client assets in bitcoin were either “holding” or “adding” based on the recent price drawdown. That data suggests the RIA channel is convinced of the long-term return potential of the asset, which creates sticky capital from their clients.* Institutions holding Bitcoin ETFs are not selling — Blackrock’s Robert Mitchnick explained that majority of the institutions holding Bitcoin ETFs have been holding their exposure during the bitcoin drawdown. He sees continued demand from Blackrock clients and believes there is considerable more room for growth in the ETF allocations.* Stablecoins are not going away — multiple speakers explained that stablecoin growth has been impressive, but the more important data point is how ingrained stablecoins are becoming in legacy institutions’ strategies. It feels like stablecoins are the third crypto product to find true product-market fit after bitcoin and crypto exchanges. * No one wants to call “bottom” yet — the price of bitcoin may be down 50%, yet there were not many takers when I asked various folks to claim the market had bottomed. People are cautious because it seems the past scars of previous bear markets has forced them to prepare for an even more significant drop in price. * All ey
- Feb 9, 20263 min
Introducing The World's First Publicly Traded Agentic Finance Firm
The world's first publicly traded agentic finance firm, including 5,000+ bitcoin on the balance sheet. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe
- Feb 2, 20265 min
The Three-Headed Deflation Monster: Tariffs, AI, and Robotics
Today’s Letter is brought to you by Arch Public!Unlock unparalleled returns with Arch Public’s algorithmic trading tools. Our Bitcoin Algorithm Arbitrage Strategy has delivered an astounding 247% annual return over the past three years. The entries, and exits speak for themselves; precision that drives success. Trusted by more than 15,000 customers and industry leaders, we’ve partnered with Gemini, Kraken, Coinbase and Robinhood to bring you cutting-edge solutions. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting, our proven strategies maximize your potential. Join the ranks of those who trust Arch Public to navigate the markets with confidence. Talk to us today and discover why our expertise sets us apart.To investors,There is a national crisis unfolding in the US economy, but it isn’t the type of crisis you got used to over the last few years. Rather than the persistent risk of high inflation driven by out of control government spending, the economy is being swallowed by an expansive deflationary force.This new risk is dangerous because it requires humans to update their mental models to be able to identify, understand, and mitigate it. And we know humans are horrible about changing their mind, especially when it requires them to synthesize new information.First, let’s discuss where the challenges lie in identifying this deflation risk. There is a past experience issue and a modern data error that is driving the problem. The past experience issue is that an entire generation finally capitulated in recent years after realizing that undisciplined government spending led to higher levels of inflation. These folks failed to see the cause and effect coming out of the global financial crisis and they only took the lesson to heart after the pandemic era insanity that drove inflation over 9% in the government’s data.The folks in this cohort are now trained to look at government spending and conclude that inflation will rise if the national debt is increasing. That was true in the past, but it is not true right now, which is why I call it a “past experience issue.” People are looking at the inputs, but not thinking critically about what that means for modern outputs.The second big issue is a modern data error. Most of the “experts” and mainstream reporters are still relying on the Bureau of Labor Statistics to tell them what the inflation reading is. It doesn’t matter that the BLS is estimating more than 40% of the CPI inputs, nor does it matter that the BLS continues to manipulate the data collection by leveraging unproven and discredited methods.These people simply believe whatever the government says.The Bureau of Labor Statistics is reporting inflation to be 2.7% year-over-year. But compare that number to Truflation, which is reporting inflation under 0.9% as of yesterday.This is a very wide gap in the metrics. In fact, the most concerning part is that the BLS is saying inflation is almost 50% higher than the Fed’s stated target, yet Truflation is saying inflation is more than 50% lower than the Fed’s stated target.The sky can’t be blue and green at the same time, nor can inflation be high and low simultaneously either.It is no secret that I trust the Truflation data much more than the BLS. Truflation uses more than 14 million daily data points provided by over 40 independent data providers. I’ll take the real-time, verifiable metric over the lagging, estimated metric any day of the week.But this brings us back to the most important question in the economy today…why is inflation falling if the government is continuing to print money like drunken sailors?This is where the deflationary force swallowing the US economy comes in.There are three main contributors in my mind:* Tariffs are deflationary, not inflationary. I know this is still heavily debated, but I continue to explain that tariffs bring down domestic prices over time and they change consumer demand trends. There are anecdotal businesses that will show their input costs are rising, which is then being passed on to the consumer, but those anecdotes are heavily outweighed by the aggregate impact of tariffs on the US economy.* Artificial intelligence is the largest deflationary force of our lifetime. Companies are literally bragging on a daily basis how they are being more productive with less employees. The industry is moving so fast that it is hard for most people to keep up and the economic incentive to adopt this technology is only going to get larger. Lastly, A.I. is now in the “exponential production” phase where A.I. is writing code, so we are no longer limited by human time and energy.* Robotics is a subset of the A.I. story, but it deserves its own call out. It
- Jan 26, 20264 min
The Fed Has Lost Control: Supply-Side Economics Are The Captain Now
Today’s Episode is brought to you by Figure!Figure’s building the future of capital markets through blockchain with $20B unlocked in equity.Use Democratized Prime for your chance to win big with $25k USDC and Earn ~9% APY. The more you participate, the better your odds!Figure is the only account you need in the DeFi ecosystem. For every dollar you commit, you get another chance to win $25K USDC.Start now and enter to win while earning money on your crypto with Democratized Prime1.To investors,If you listened to the Fed for the last few decades, you made a lot of money. When the Fed was easing, you could have just plowed your money into the market. When the Fed started tightening, all you had to do was sell everything and hide in cash for a few years.Investors have been yelling “don’t fight the Fed” for a long time.But I don’t think that old adage applies the same way anymore. At least it doesn’t apply right now. Let me explain…The US economy, and corresponding financial markets, have been hyper sensitive to the Fed’s monetary policy decisions for the last ~ 30 years. The central bank was cutting rates in the mid-to-late 1990s, which helped propel the internet boom higher. Finally, when the Fed started to raise rates in the second half of 1999, the tech bubble popped shortly afterwards and everything came back down to reality.During the Global Financial Crisis, the Fed invented the insane Quantitative Easing policy that led to a prolonged period of 0% interest rates and hundreds of billions of dollars bring printed. This QE playbook kicked off a decade-long bull market that made every stock market bear look like a fool.Finally, during the 2020 pandemic, the Federal Reserve pulled out the old QE playbook again. Interest rates went to 0% via two emergency cuts and the government decided to print trillions of dollars, which created more than 9% inflation within a 24-month period.The main thing that stopped the 2021 party was the Fed’s decision to reverse course and start hiking interest rates at the fastest pace in history. We went from 0% to over 5% rates in a very short period of time. The regime shift was so abrupt that multiple banks failed because of their inability to navigate the volatility.This brings us back to the “don’t fight the Fed” adage. It made sense because the Federal Reserve would set policy and the world would react to those decisions. Quite literally, the Fed was in control.That doesn’t seem to be the case right now though.The current President and his administration have effectively taken control of the US economy and financial markets. They have implemented a set of policies to reimagine the country, including deregulation, tax cuts, smaller government, and re-shoring of American jobs and manufacturing.In taking this approach, the government is rapidly changing the economic conditions of the market and it is putting the Fed on their back foot. The central bankers already had a hard enough time trying to make monetary policy decisions based on faulty data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Now these folks are being asked to understand substantial changes across the economy, including policy differences and advancements in cutting-edge technology like artificial intelligence.This is why I don’t believe the Fed is in control anymore. In fact, I think the exact opposite is true. The market is forcing the hand of the Fed. America’s central bank begrudgingly cut interest rates at the end of 2025 because the labor market was softening at a much faster pace than forecasted. The softness in the labor market was not due to normal business cycle developments, but rather a combination of policy decisions and technology innovation.Jerome Powell essentially said he and his colleagues were more worried about the labor market than about inflation coming back. But the Fed’s fight against the market is not over yet. My base case is that inflation is going to continue falling in the coming months.Truflation is reporting inflation at 1.2% as of last night. If you take the BLS’ methodology, and you replace the ~ 40% of inputs that are estimations with accurate measurements of the input goods, then Truflation shows inflation would be less than 1% year-over-year.The big takeaway from this situation, according to Truflation, is that inflation has collapsed from its rec
- Jan 12, 20266 min
Fed Chairman Under Fire: Taxpayer-Funded Luxury, DOJ Subpoenas, and Jerome Powell’s Defense
Today’s letter is brought to you by MoonPay!Join over 30 million users who trust MoonPay as their universal crypto account.We make it easy to buy and sell crypto in over 180 countries, with no-to-low fees and all your favourite payment methods like Venmo, PayPal, Apple Pay, card and more.MoonPay is the only account you need in the DeFi ecosystem. Trade, stake and build your portfolio all in one place.Start now and get zero MoonPay fees* on your first transaction.To investors,News broke last night that the Department of Justice has opened an investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell over comments he made while testifying about renovations to the Federal Reserve building.This development comes after months of disagreement about monetary policy between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve. Before we get into what is likely to happen with this investigation and how it will impact the market, I want to remind everyone of the context.Background on Powell’s previous commentsThe investigation centers on whether Powell made false or misleading statements to Congress during his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in June 2025. This testimony addressed the Federal Reserve’s ongoing multi-year renovation project for its headquarters buildings in Washington, D.C., which is estimated to cost around $2.5 billion and has experienced significant cost overruns (reportedly around $600-700 million).Key points of contention include:* Powell allegedly denied or downplayed the inclusion of certain luxury or non-essential features in the final project plans, such as private elevators, premium marble, water features/fountains, a VIP dining room, a rooftop terrace garden, and other upgrades.* These features appeared in earlier project documents submitted to bodies like the National Capital Planning Commission, but Powell stated during testimony that many had been removed or were not part of the current scope, attributing cost increases to factors like inflation in materials/labor, asbestos removal, soil contamination, and accessibility requirements.* Critics (including some Republican lawmakers and Trump administration figures) claim these statements were inaccurate or deceptive, potentially constituting perjury or false statements to Congress.The probe announced last night involves analyzing Powell’s public statements (including the congressional testimony), reviewing spending records, and other documents related to the renovation.An important point is that the renovation was reportedly approved in November 2025 by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro (a Trump appointee). Prosecutors have contacted Powell’s staff for documents, and on Friday, January 9, 2026, the DOJ served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas threatening a potential criminal indictment tied to the June testimony.Powell’s responseAfter the New York Times broke the story of the investigation, Jerome Powell released a video message defending his actions and calling into question the motivation behind the investigation. Powell said:“This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings… Those are pretexts. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.”There are a few takeaways I had from this response. First, Powell posted a video response to the allegations within minutes of the New York Times report being published. That seems highly suspicious. It takes time to create a script, record a video, edit the video, and get it posted online. The Federal Reserve is not exactly known as a world class content creator, so my guess is that the Fed or Powell are the ones who leaked the investigation to the media.There is nothing wrong with that decision per se, but it does beg the question of why would the Fed or Powell want to create a flame war in the public eye? I don’t know the answer. I suspect we will get answers later that provide clarity in hindsight.Second, the response seemed much more focused on the argument “this is political!” than denying the allegations. I have learned over time that the more some
- Jan 5, 20265 min
The 4 Reasons Why Bitcoin Did Not Perform Well In 2025
Today’s Letter is brought to you by Arch Public!Unlock unparalleled returns with Arch Public’s algorithmic trading tools. Our Bitcoin Algorithm Arbitrage Strategy has delivered an astounding 247% annual return over the past three years. The entries, and exits speak for themselves; precision that drives success. Trusted by more than 15,000 customers and industry leaders, we’ve partnered with Gemini, Kraken, Coinbase and Robinhood to bring you cutting-edge solutions. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting, our proven strategies maximize your potential. Join the ranks of those who trust Arch Public to navigate the markets with confidence. Talk to us today and discover why our expertise sets us apart.To Investors,I have spent the last few days thinking about why bitcoin underperformed expectations in 2025. My conclusion is that multiple trends, forces, and developments came together to create the perfect storm for the digital currency to end the year lower than where it started.Lower risk = lower returnFirst, bitcoin is much less risky today than at any other point in the history of the asset. No one believes the US government is going to shut bitcoin down. The government isn’t going to come and arrest bitcoin holders. There is true decentralization, including from individual retail investors to the largest financial institutions in the world.This decentralization removes the risk of a 51% attack, along with other nefarious actions that could fundamentally change the bitcoin value proposition. Bitcoin has also gone through numerous economic situations without failing or going to $0. The digital asset has dropped ~80% numerous times, weathered the COVID liquidity crisis, resisted the FTX collapse, and then survived the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates at the fastest pace in history.This proven resilience means that the risk of holding bitcoin is low. Add in the fact that many of the top financial institutions in the world are embracing the asset and it becomes very difficult to see a scenario where bitcoin “fails.” Because of this newfound conviction in bitcoin’s continued success, we should all expect a lower return moving forward.Buying bitcoin a decade ago was high risk, high reward. Buying bitcoin today is low risk, medium reward. I expect bitcoin to continue outperforming the stock market indexes over the next decade, but it won’t deliver the 80%+ compound annual growth rate that we enjoyed in the past.Global stability is returningBitcoin is supposed to be a hedge against chaos and economic uncertainty. When wars break out, and citizens around the world feel it will be necessary to resist censorship and seizures, bitcoin becomes an attractive asset.However, since President Trump took office there has been more global stability than before. The Israel/Hamas conflict is over. Russia and Ukraine are closer to signing a peace deal than ever before. Iran’s nuclear capabilities have been drastically reduced. The southern border is closed. And former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was removed from his country over the weekend.This “peace through strength” approach is really about the United States returning to its position atop the global world order. There are consequences for people who get out of line. Bad people understand that the US will hunt them down to capture or kill them.All of this creates less chaos and more predictable geopolitical relationships. If there is less chaos, then the chaos hedge (bitcoin) is not sought after like it would otherwise be.Wall Street plays different gamesBitcoin was a long-only game for most of the last 15 years. Anyone with an internet connection could acquire the asset and hold it while they hoped the price went higher. Once Wall Street and the large financial institutions got involved, the game changed substantially.You can think of these changes as a way of “civilizing” bitcoin. Many of the early bitcoiners, who are more akin to cowboys, don’t want to be civilized though. They were attracted to the asymmetric returns and they loved the fact that bitcoin had a libertarian flavor to it. The more “outside the system” bitcoin was, the more these cowboys wanted to buy.Now that bitcoin is being pulled into the legacy financial system (ETFs, treasury companies, funds, options, etc), early holders of bitcoin are exiting at a higher pace than normal. Some of them are selling their bitcoin outright. Others are using complex financial structures to reduce tax burdens, including renouncing US citizenship.But ProCap Financial CIO Jeff Park points out that some OGs ar
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