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Exploring Prosperity- Challenging Pessimism in the US: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Bob Dewey
Challenge Pessimism. Explore the Complexity of Progress. Headlines and survey results scream pessimism, but is it warranted? Join us on Exploring Prosperity as we delve into the complexities of human progress with leading thinkers across markets, economics, history, philosophy, and more. Discover how economic and societal factors shape our world, and gain a deeper understanding of the drivers of individual and societal prosperity and a fulfilling life. Our in-depth conversations may leave you empowered and optimistic about the future and equipped with insights to navigate the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. Bob Dewey brings his expertise in investing and his network in the investment community and beyond to address the big issues of the day and whether we can solve problems faster than they grow.
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- 3 days ago7 min
Extinction Is the Wrong Test
Last week, Evan Hubinger, who leads alignment science at Anthropic, said he believes artificial intelligence has a greater than 10 percent chance of killing every human within the next decade. His position makes the warning impossible to ignore: he works on the safety of Anthropic’s AI systems. His chief concern is that a future, more capable AI might escape human control.Concern about that possibility has also reached Congress. Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Greg Casar have announced a proposal to ban artificial superintelligence and pause advanced AI development while safety rules are established. A proposal of that scale calls for a precise account of the disaster it aims to prevent and how the proposed measures would help.What would it take for AI to kill literally every human? A catastrophe would have to reach across the world, defeat attempts to contain it, and leave no surviving population. Conceivable routes include a biological disaster, nuclear war, or a prolonged collapse of systems essential to survival. AI might contribute through the actions of a person using it for harm, or through a future system acting beyond human control. Each possibility has a different sequence of events.The first begins with a person. Major AI systems people use online, such as Claude and ChatGPT, are designed to refuse requests for help with cyberattacks or biological weapons. Those safeguards make misuse harder, though they can be evaded. The 2026 International AI Safety Report, chaired by Yoshua Bengio and written by an international group of experts, finds that safeguards are improving but remain imperfect. Providers can also monitor for misuse, giving a determined actor reason to seek another way to use AI.Open weight models raise a deeper concern because people can download and run them privately. Someone can modify a model, remove its safeguards, and use it beyond a provider’s monitoring. Once released, its weights cannot be recalled. Even then, AI advice does not give someone the materials for a biological weapon or control over nuclear weapons. The question is how much the technology lowers the remaining barriers for a determined actor, and whether an attack could spread so far that no one survived it.The second possibility is closer to Hubinger’s warning. A future AI might pursue a goal its creators did not intend, conceal what it is doing, and resist attempts to stop it. It would also need to carry out plans over time and gain access to resources through which it could cause harm. The International AI Safety Report says current systems show early signs of some relevant abilities, but cannot yet combine them at the level required to escape human control. Experts disagree about whether future systems will develop those abilities.The warning asks readers to imagine AI killing literally every human. An asteroid impact wiped out about 75 percent of Earth’s species 66 million years ago. It is a useful measure of what a truly global catastrophe looks like: not a war or a famine confined to a region, but a shock whose effects reached across the planet. Any AI disaster serious enough to end humanity would have to operate on a similar scale.The evidence so far leaves several steps between present AI capabilities and that outcome. A person would need far more than advice from a model. An AI acting on its own would need capabilities and access that current systems do not have. In either case, a catastrophe would then have to overcome human efforts to contain it and leave no survivors. That sequence makes extinction within a decade appear very unlikely, though the available evidence cannot establish a precise probability or disprove Hubinger’s estimate.A disaster that killed millions would still demand action, of course. Defining the threat helps identify which action might work. The Sanders and Casar proposal chiefly addresses the prospect of a future AI escaping control. A pause in development could give researchers and regulators time to improve safeguards. A ban on superintelligence would do less to prevent a criminal from using an open weight model already available. Those are reasons to examine the proposal against each danger, along with the benefits it might preserve or sacrifice.There are grave outcomes that require fewer steps. AI might help a criminal find a weakness in a bank’s systems, deceive an employee, or carry
- 3 weeks ago1h 18m
Bitcoin Treasury Companies: The Rise of Digital Credit | Tim Kotzman
Bitcoin treasury companies were easy to launch when Bitcoin was rising. Then the market turned and the industry had to learn.Tim Kotzman has had a front-row seat to that process. As host of the Bitcoin Treasuries Podcast and co-founder of Bitcoin Treasuries Media, he has interviewed many of the executives, investors and analysts building this emerging industry.In this conversation, we explore what the recent bear market taught Bitcoin treasury companies, why Tim believes digital credit may be the industry's most important innovation, what separates the companies that adapted from those that struggled, and what could happen if Bitcoin enters another sustained bull market.Interested in Bitcoin treasury companies? Many of the executives and investors shaping this industry will be at the Bitcoin Treasuries Conference in New York on September 28. Use code BOBD10 for 10% off your registration at https://bitcointreasuries.net/conference#ticketsBitcoinWe also discuss Tim's own unlikely path into the industry: starting a podcast almost by accident, building 21-hour digital conferences, launching an in-person event without a budget, and learning his way into a business as the industry itself was being created.Finally, we look ahead at MSCI, the risks facing Bitcoin treasury investors, the potential evolution of these companies into major financial institutions, and why curiosity and adaptability may be the real competitive advantages in a rapidly changing market.Tim Kotzman: Bitcoin Treasuries Podcast / Bitcoin Treasuries MediaSubscribe to Exploring Prosperity for conversations and essays about Bitcoin, markets, economics, technology and human progress.Thank you very much to our sponsors:* Foundation.xyz: When it comes to protecting your Bitcoin, you shouldn’t have to simply trust the company that made your hardware wallet.Foundation believes in verifiability over reputation. Its firmware and apps are open source, its builds are reproducible, and both Passport Core and Passport Prime have undergone independent hardware security audits. The point isn’t simply that Foundation says its products are secure. It’s that you can verify that for yourself.Foundation is also expanding what users can control:* Passport Prime goes beyond Bitcoin. It can manage passwords and two-factor authentication codes, serve as a FIDO2 security key, and provide encrypted storage—all on a device you own and control. Foundation also plans to enable app sideloading, opening Prime to applications from independent developers.* Users can now add their own entropy. The latest Envoy and KeyOS releases allow users to introduce their own randomness when creating a seed, reducing reliance on the device itself to generate it.Learn more about Foundation → https://foundation.xyz/* River Financial: If not cold storage for your Bitcoin, I’d highly recommend River for buying and holding- River is engineered to protect your Bitcoin over the long run. Use this link for discounts: https://river.com/signup?r=T7GGAF7G This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe
- Aug 10, 202653 min
What Happens to Lawyers When AI Gets This Good?
Artificial intelligence is already changing the practice of law. The question is no longer whether lawyers will use AI, but what happens to the legal profession when they do.Stephen Lofchie, one of the country’s leading financial-services regulatory lawyers, and Ty Greenberg of Caffrey.ai join me to explore how AI is changing legal research, the economics of legal services, and where lawyers will continue to create value as intelligence becomes cheaper and more abundant.We discuss why law is particularly susceptible to AI, whether greater productivity will reduce the number of lawyers or expand demand for legal services, why judgment and trust may become more valuable, and what young lawyers need to do to remain competitive.We also discuss the creation of Caffrey.ai, an AI platform for legal and regulatory professionals, and how AI could eventually help businesses and regulators navigate increasingly complex rules across multiple jurisdictions.Finally, Stephen and Ty offer their view of what the legal profession may look like a decade from now—and why the changes happening in law may provide an early glimpse of what AI will mean for other knowledge professions.——————————————————————————————————Interested in Bitcoin treasury companies? Many of the executives and investors shaping this industry will be at the Bitcoin Treasuries Conference in New York on September 28. Use code BOBD10 for 10% off your registration at https://bitcointreasuries.net/confere... ——————————————————————————————————Subscribe to The Exploring Prosperity Podcast for more conversations exploring economics, technology, investing, and the forces shaping the future.Thank you very much to our sponsors:Foundation: Protect your Bitcoin using the latest off-line technology with easy-to-use Passport. Their next product, Passport Prime will protect all passwords off-line with even-better technology. https://foundation.xyz/River Financial: If not cold storage for your Bitcoin, I’d highly recommend River for buying and holding- River is engineered to protect your Bitcoin over the long run. Use this link for discounts: https://river.com/signup?r=T7GGAF7GChapters:00:00 AI is a tidal wave00:17 Why law is especially vulnerable to AI01:29 What legal work is already changing04:58 Does AI make lawyers faster—or better?07:49 Where will lawyers still create value?10:21 When intelligence is abundant, what becomes valuable?13:08 Will cheaper legal services create more demand?16:28 Will we need fewer lawyers?20:18 What lawyers should be doing about AI now25:32 How Caffrey was created29:15 What Caffrey is trying to solve31:34 Using AI to navigate regulatory complexity38:13 How regulators can use AI39:42 The economics of specialized AI42:23 Can AI make compliance a business advantage?45:34 How customers are adopting legal AI46:49 What will the legal profession look like in 10 years?51:12 Why AI will reward active learners52:36 Where to learn more about Caffrey This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe
- Jul 31, 20261h 4m
Where Disciplines Intersect: Free Will, AI, Economics, and Prosperity
Can free will exist in a deterministic universe? What does that imply for artificial intelligence, capitalism, scientific progress, and the future of prosperity?In this conversation, I sit down with Samir Varma to explore the common thread running through his work in economics, physics, mathematics, and computer science.We discuss his theory of free will, why AI may be fundamentally unpredictable, how computational irreducibility changes the AI debate, and why principles may matter more than constraints.--------------------------Interested in Bitcoin treasury companies? Many of the executives and investors shaping this industry will be at the Bitcoin Treasuries Conference in New York on September 28. Use code BOBD10 for 10% off your registration at https://bitcointreasuries.net/conference#tickets -------------------------The conversation then shifts to economics: capitalism, incentives, regulation, housing, taxation, scientific funding, education, and the policies Samir believes would create a more prosperous future.Whether or not you agree with every conclusion, this discussion challenges many assumptions about how ideas should be tested—and why reality remains the ultimate judge.Topics include:Free will and computational irreducibilityWhy AI cannot be perfectly predictedConstitutional AI vs. AI constraintsComparative advantage between humans and AIWhy incentives shape societyCapitalism, competition, and regulationHousing, scientific research, and economic growthWhy education should teach economicsAI's impact on jobs and human judgmentBuilding a more prosperous futureSubscribe for more conversations exploring economics, technology, investing, and the forces shaping the future.Thank you very much to our sponsors:Foundation: Protect your Bitcoin using the latest off-line technology with easy-to-use Passport. Their next product, Passport Prime will protect all passwords off-line with even-better technology. https://foundation.xyz/River Financial: If not cold storage for your Bitcoin, I’d highly recommend River for buying and holding- River is engineered to protect your Bitcoin over the long run. Use this link for discounts: https://river.com/signup?r=T7GGAF7GTimeline:00:00 Why Samir Varma Studies Economics, Physics & AI03:28 Can Free Will Really Exist?05:15 The Three Limits of Prediction08:20 Why AI May Have Free Will10:00 Principles vs. AI Constraints12:05 How Should We Govern AI?15:00 Should AI Have Rights?17:20 Will AI Create Abundance?19:15 Why So Many People Feel Pessimistic24:10 America Remains Great?26:00 How Great Nations Decline28:10 Testing Ideas Against Reality31:10 Protecting Capitalism from Capitalists34:10 Why Economies Slow Down37:30 A Better Voting System?40:20 Why Data Doesn't Settle Every Debate42:00 The Policies That Increase Growth43:45 Why Capital Taxes Hurt Growth47:35 Why Capital Gains Taxes Matter51:30 The Biggest Problems America Should Solve53:00 Why Government Should Fund Science57:00 Is Education Really the Problem?59:00 AI, Judgment & Human Creativity1:00:00 Who Wins in the AI Economy?1:01:30 Curiosity Is the Ultimate Advantage This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe
- Jul 18, 202634 min
The AI Masterclass: How ChatGPT and Large Language Models Really Work
Artificial intelligence is advancing faster than almost any technology in history, yet surprisingly few people understand what large language models are actually doing behind the scenes.In this masterclass, Albert Berdellans, Global Head of AI at Inveniam, explains AI in plain English. We explore why ChatGPT doesn't actually "think," how large language models generate answers, why hallucinations occur, what context rot means, and where AI is likely to transform knowledge work over the next decade.Whether you're an investor, business leader, student, or simply curious about artificial intelligence, this conversation provides a practical framework for separating hype from reality.Topics include:• How large language models actually work• Why AI predicts rather than thinks• Hallucinations, context rot, and reasoning• What AI can and cannot do today• AI's impact on finance, healthcare, education, and consulting• Why AI is more likely to augment professionals than replace themIf you enjoy thoughtful conversations about technology, economics, investing, and the forces shaping human progress, subscribe to Exploring Prosperity.Thank you very much to our sponsors: Foundation: Protect your Bitcoin using the latest off-line technology with easy-to-use Passport. Their next product, Passport Prime will protect all passwords off-line with even-better technology. https://foundation.xyz/River Financial: If not cold storage for your Bitcoin, I’d highly recommend River for buying and holding- River is engineered to protect your Bitcoin over the long run. Use this link for discounts: https://river.com/signup?r=T7GGAF7GTimestamps:00:00 AI Isn't Thinking02:00 Why AI Won't Replace People03:08 AI Has No Motivation04:53 Garbage In, Garbage Out06:58 What Is Context Rot?08:16 How Large Language Models Actually Work10:23 Why AI Gives Different Answers11:04 Why AI Hallucinates12:40 Can You Trust AI?14:18 Prediction vs. Reasoning15:11 Why AI Only Sounds Smart16:50 AI's Biggest Real-World Applications18:04 The Spreadsheet Revolution Analogy18:54 Will AI Replace Jobs?20:31 Permanent Due Diligence24:35 AI in Healthcare & Education30:36 Personalized Education32:24 How AI Could Improve Society This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe
- Jul 6, 20267 min
What If We Solved the Wrong Problem in Education?
Education was never designed to fail students. It was designed to solve one of humanity’s greatest challenges: how to provide education at scale to millions of people.The factory model of education succeeded beyond anyone’s expectations. Standardization, age grouping, and shared curricula helped create the most educated societies in history.But scale came with tradeoffs. Some students sit in classrooms moving too quickly to keep up. Others sit in classrooms moving too slowly to stay engaged. Too many become passengers in their own education.Artificial intelligence may offer something previous generations could only imagine: personalization at scale.In this video, I explore:• Why the factory model of education was an extraordinary achievement rather than a mistake.• Why boredom may be one of education’s most important unsolved problems.• How curiosity drives learning and retention.• How AI tutors and personalized learning tools could change the educational experience.• Why schools will remain essential even in an age of artificial intelligence.The future of education may not be humans versus AI. It may be humans doing more of what humans do best, while AI helps every student learn at their own pace.#AI #Education #ArtificialIntelligence #FutureOfEducation #EdTech #PersonalizedLearning #Learning #Schools #Technology #TeachingThank you very much to our sponsors:* Foundation: Secure your digital life—from passwords, 2FA, files and Bitcoin with Passport Prime, an all-in-one personal security platform. Visit them at https://foundation.xyz/* River Financial: If not cold storage for your Bitcoin, I’d highly recommend River for buying and holding- River is engineered to protect your Bitcoin over the long run. Use this link for discounts: https://river.com/signup?r=T7GGAF7GTimestamps:00:00 Introduction: Did We Solve the Wrong Problem?00:24 The Factory Model of Education01:07 Why Schools Were Designed This Way01:43 The Tradeoffs of Standardization02:26 The Problem of Passenger Learners02:39 Curiosity Is the Engine of Learning03:36 The Personalization Problem03:50 How AI Changes the Equation05:07 The Human Side of Education06:07 Unlocking Human Potential at Scale This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe
- Jun 21, 202642 min
The AI Paradox: More Information, Less Shared Reality
Today's guest is Lyn Alden, one of the world's leading macroeconomic analysts and the author of Broken Money and The Stillguard Incident.We explore one of the defining questions of the modern era: humanity has more information, more connectivity, and more problem-solving capability than ever before, yet trust in institutions is falling and agreement on basic facts appears increasingly difficult.Topics include:• AI generated content and the future of truth• Social media algorithms and attention economics• Bitcoin, cryptographic verification, and digital authenticity• The historical relationship between technology and progress• Energy, hydrocarbons, and human prosperity• Fiscal dominance, inflation, and rising asset prices• Demographics, debt, and the long term economic outlook• Portfolio construction in an era of persistent deficits• Lyn's new investment venture, Orange JuiceIf you enjoy thoughtful conversations about economics, technology, investing, Bitcoin, and long-term human progress, please subscribe.Subscribe to my Substack for more in depth analyses of these topics: Thank you very much to our sponsors: Foundation: Protect your Bitcoin using the latest off-line technology with easy-to-use Passport. Their next product, Passport Prime will protect all passwords off-line with even-better technology. https://foundation.xyz/River Financial: If not cold storage for your Bitcoin, I’d highly recommend River for buying and holding- River is engineered to protect your Bitcoin over the long run. Use this link for discounts: https://river.com/signup?r=T7GGAF7GTimestamps:00:00 Introduction: The Shared Reality Problem- HIghlights01:20 How Technology Changed Shared Reality02:40 AI, Deepfakes, and the Verification Crisis04:20 Will We Retreat to Local Sources of Truth?05:40 Social Media Algorithms and Attention Economics09:10 Sponsor Break09:50 Can Bitcoin Help Verify Reality?14:40 Hunter Gatherers, Agriculture, and Human Progress19:00 Markets, Entrepreneurship, and Problem Solving21:20 Debt, Governments, and Fiscal Dominance24:00 Why Stocks Keep Rising Despite Growing Pessimism27:40 Demographics, Deficits, and the K-Shaped Economy30:20 Ray Dalio, Empires, and Avoiding Conflict33:30 How Lyn Alden Is Positioning Her Portfolio34:50 Why the Traditional 60/40 Portfolio May Be Changing38:10 Orange Juice: Lyn's New Investment Venture40:10 Writing Fiction, Building Ideas, and Long-Term Thinking41:30 Closing Thoughts This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe
- Jun 14, 202649 min
The Hidden Challenge of Bringing Crypto to Wall Street
What does it take for one of the world's largest financial institutions to adopt an entirely new technology?Morgan Stanley's Head of Digital Asset Strategy, Amy Oldenburg, joins Exploring Prosperity to discuss the hidden challenge of bringing crypto, tokenization, stablecoins, and blockchain technology into a global financial institution.Most conversations about digital assets focus on prices, regulation, or the latest market cycle. This conversation focuses on something deeper: how innovation actually moves from the outside into the institutions that society already depends upon.Drawing on more than two decades at Morgan Stanley, Amy explains why large organizations often struggle to innovate, what she calls the challenge of institutional transformation, and why understanding both emerging technology and legacy financial infrastructure has become increasingly valuable.We discuss:• How Amy's experience in emerging markets led her to Bitcoin and digital assets• Why Morgan Stanley began exploring digital assets years before most institutions• The internal resistance new technologies face inside large organizations• What "institutional grade" really means• Why tokenization is about far more than crypto investing• How stablecoins may strengthen the global role of the U.S. dollar• The infrastructure required to support 24/7 financial markets• Why user experience ultimately drives technology adoption• How AI and digital assets are accelerating financial modernization• The opportunities and challenges facing Wall Street over the next decadeOne of the most fascinating themes in this discussion is the role of the translator: people who understand both the culture of innovation and the realities of large institutions. As digital assets continue moving into the financial mainstream, that role may become one of the most important in finance.If you enjoy thoughtful conversations about technology, markets, institutions, Bitcoin, AI, and the future of financial services, subscribe and join us for future episodes.Subscribe to my Substack for more in depth analyses of these topics: https://robertdewey3.substack.com/Thank you very much to our sponsors:Foundation: Protect your Bitcoin using the latest off-line technology with easy-to-use Passport. Their next product, Passport Prime will protect all passwords off-line with even-better technology. https://foundation.xyz/River Financial: If not cold storage for your Bitcoin, I’d highly recommend River for buying and holding- River is engineered to protect your Bitcoin over the long run. Use this link for discounts: https://river.com/signup?r=T7GGAF7G#DigitalAssets #Tokenization #MorganStanley Timestamps:00:00 Highlights01:05 How Amy Oldenburg Found Crypto Through Emerging Markets07:25 Why Bitcoin Made Sense Outside the Developed World10:35 Morgan Stanley's First Digital Asset Working Groups11:25 The "Innovation Firewall" Inside Large Institutions13:00 Why Financial Firms Struggle to Innovate17:45 The Regulatory Turning Point for Digital Assets21:35 From Experimentation to Firm-Wide Strategy22:25 Amy's Role as Head of Digital Asset Strategy26:40 What Does "Institutional Grade" Really Mean?30:40 The Most Important Use Cases for Digital Assets36:20 Tokenization, AI, and the Future of Financial Infrastructure42:10 The Biggest Challenges Facing Institutional Adoption46:00 Tokenization, New Products, and the Future of Finance48:25 Closing Thoughts This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe
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About Exploring Prosperity- Challenging Pessimism in the US
Challenge Pessimism. Explore the Complexity of Progress. Headlines and survey results scream pessimism, but is it warranted? Join us on Exploring Prosperity as we delve into the complexities of human progress with leading thinkers across markets, economics, history, philosophy, and more. Discover how economic and societal factors shape our world, and gain a deeper understanding of the drivers of individual and societal prosperity and a fulfilling life. Our in-depth conversations may leave you empowered and optimistic about the future and equipped with insights to navigate the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. Bob Dewey brings his expertise in investing and his network in the investment community and beyond to address the big issues of the day and whether we can solve problems faster than they grow.
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