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Forward Guidance: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Blockworks
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.
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- Yesterday53 min
Is The AI Selloff A Buying Opportunity? | Warren Pies
Is the AI trade busting or is the market just catching its breath? This week, Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins us to explain why he took equity risk off while still believing the AI build-out has room to run. We also explore financials vs. staples flashing caution, why Fed hikes are the biggest risk to AI, and how the Iran blockade and diesel cracks are reshaping oil. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Warren Pies, Founder of 3Fourteen Research 04:23 Financials vs. Staples Flash Caution 08:35 Finding Signal in Noisy Markets 12:32 Fidelity, DAS London 13:43 Is the AI Trade Still Intact? 20:04 Who Finances the AI Build-Out? 26:18 Fidelity, DAS London 27:35 The Fed vs. the Investment Boom 32:04 Debt Issuance and CoreWeave's Bonds 35:12 Will the Fed Protect the AI Race? 37:51 How Fragile Is the Rest of the Economy? 39:44 Iran, the Blockade and Oil 44:55 Durable Changes to the Oil Landscape 48:15 What Fixes Blown-Out Diesel Cracks? FOLLOW WARREN › Warren – https://x.com/WarrenPies › 3Fourteen – https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. http://fidelity.com/crypto RESOURCES › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection: https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11 https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
- 5 days ago59 min
The Fed Is A Sideshow While The AI Trade Implodes | Weekly Roundup
The AI trade is cracking and the Fed is too boxed in to help. This week, Felix and Quinn weigh what a fracturing AI story and stalled monetary policy mean for markets heading into year end. We explore gold breaking to new lows, implied correlations spiking, Lagarde's exit and Europe's hike pricing, Big Tech capex cuts, and why oil is ripping into the midterms. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Brewers Win the World Series 02:39 Fed Holds With Two Hawkish Dissents 08:46 Lagarde Exits as Central Banks Hike 12:46 Fidelity / DAS London 13:58 Gold Slides Below $3,900 19:16 Is the AI Trade Fracturing? 29:29 Fidelity / DAS London 30:46 What Oil Teaches Us About AI 39:46 Midterms, War and Oil Supply 44:32 Inflation, Populism and Unrest 51:05 Polymarket Missed Brazil's Election 53:43 Inside the $6.36B Binance Hack 57:37 Gold, Bitcoin and DAS London FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. http://fidelity.com/crypto RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AkjPKMl-PBMxKBU96-LUgBw0N8DBr4nn/view?usp=sharing › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection: https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11 https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a. recommendation tobuy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
- 1 weeks ago56 min
The Only Way Out Is Through | Weekly Roundup
Can anything stop oil's run when the SPR is already drained? This week, we dig into why the oil squeeze is becoming structural, not just a Strait of Hormuz story. We explore the oil curve trade, the Brent–WTI gap, tightening financial conditions, and crypto's slow bottoming process. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Markets In Turmoil, Round Two 01:25 Bonds Rip As The Nasdaq Drops 3% 02:29 Oil And Bonds Break Up 05:23 Why Nobody Wants The Oil Bull Case 09:45 Reading The Oil Curve 12:38 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London) 13:50 Brent–WTI Gap Hits Wartime Highs 16:33 Diesel, Cracks & Maxed-Out Refineries 20:30 The Only Way Out Is Through 23:13 AI Capex Doubts Meet Tighter Conditions 29:18 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London) 30:36 Midterms, Iran & No Plan 36:07 No SPR Left To Cap Prices 39:56 Do Shipping Costs Cap Oil? 44:19 Is Crypto Bottoming? 54:06 The Midterms Risk For Crypto FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. http://fidelity.com/crypto RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Tnu1D0x02EGLR6qtWjttOj6iDTp-jOLw/view?usp=sharing › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection: https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11 https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
- 2 weeks ago32 min
Where Is The Crypto Alpha Hiding This Cycle?
Is crypto finally rewarding the investors who do the work? This week, we sit down with three top allocators at DAS Singapore to unpack where the real alpha lives in an early, uneven bull market. We explore where crypto x AI actually works, building size in illiquid tokens, if $HYPE stays the consensus winner, and seed vs. growth for the next cycle. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:21 Where Is Crypto AI’s Edge? 07:10 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 07:43 Do AI Agents Need Blockchains? 10:16 How Crypto Funds Allocate Capital 16:33 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 17:13 Finding Alpha In A Crowded Market 23:37 Longs, Shorts, And Beating Bitcoin 26:34 Seed Or Growth: Where’s The Opportunity? FOLLOW GUESTS › Arthur Cheong – https://x.com/arthur0x › Rajiv Patel-O'Connor – https://x.com/rajivpoc › Smac – https://x.com/0xsmac FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. http://fidelity.com/crypto RESOURCES › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection: https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11 https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
- 2 weeks ago51 min
The Bond Market Is Pricing In Something Worse Than Inflation | Weekly Roundup
Is the AI trade now the only thing standing between the economy and a slowdown? This week, we unpack why bonds are rallying through scalding inflation data and what that says about the current cycle and inflection point in markets. We explore the collapse in October hike odds, why AI backstops favor debt over equity, the Russell's brutal losing streak, where to hide from a correlation shock, and whether the top is in for yields. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:06 Why Are Bonds Ignoring Hot Inflation? 07:53 Has The Fed Ruled Out October? 11:56 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 12:29 Cracks In The AI Growth Engine 16:59 Is A Growth Slowdown Already Coming? 21:11 The Market’s Warning Shot 26:43 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 27:42 Who Gets Saved In AI Bailouts? 32:14 Where Can Investors Find Shelter? 40:41 Do Rate Hikes Still Work? 44:43 Can Bonds Really Offer Safety? 49:06 Iran Escalation And The Midterms FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. http://fidelity.com/crypto RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Jxp-TOVcBtYAs5dzvk8GK4k2pgKJE2vf/view?usp=sharing › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection: https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11 https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
- 3 weeks ago20 min
Robinhood & Lighter: Why Wall Street Is Moving Onchain
Are onchain markets about to become the default way the world trades? This week, Felix sits down live at DAS Singapore with Robinhood's Johann Kerbrat and Lighter's Vlad Novakovski to unpack the convergence of TradFi and crypto. We explore 24/7 trading, why perps beat CFDs, pre-IPO and commodity perps, the CFTC path for US perps, and Robinhood Chain's first 100 days. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:14 Why Finance Is Moving Onchain 04:17 Can 24/7 Markets Stay Liquid? 06:33 Why Perps Are Going Mainstream 09:59 Bringing Real Assets To Perps 13:10 Can The US Get Perps Right? 15:51 Connecting Traditional & Onchain Finance 18:15 What Robinhood Chain Has Learned FOLLOW GUESTS › Johann – https://x.com/JohannKerbrat › Vlad – https://x.com/vnovakovski FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks › DAS – https://x.com/blockworksDAS RESOURCES › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection: https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11 https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
- Oct 4, 202653 min
America’s AI Boom Is Squeezing Main Street | Weekly Roundup
Can policymakers keep the AI boom alive without squeezing the rest of the economy? This week, Aidan Garrib, PGM Global’s head of global macro strategy and research, joins us to explore the widening divide between Wall Street and Main Street. We discuss what’s driving bond yields, housing’s squeeze, the debasement trade, and Europe’s policy trap. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:38 What’s Really Driving Bond Yields? 08:31 AI Booms While Housing Breaks 14:40 Can The Fed Get Yields Down? 19:23 The Fed’s Inflation Balancing Act 22:42 Can Main Street Survive AI’s Boom? 29:04 Why Policymakers Need Stocks Higher 33:04 Do Rate Hikes Actually Stimulate? 38:13 Engineering Buyers For Government Debt 43:00 Europe’s Inflation Or Industry Dilemma 48:23 Why Europe’s Crisis Keeps Getting Worse FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Aidan – https://x.com/AidanGarrib › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection: https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto. Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
- Sep 25, 20261h 1m
The Bond Market Pain Isn't Over | Weekly Roundup
The 10-year just closed at 5.22%, but the pain trade may be even higher. This week, 40-year rates trading veteran DCP joins us as we examine the bond selloff and what it would take to actually break something and flip the pain trade in bonds. We explore SOFR hike pricing, AI capex and private credit, diesel's hit to Main Street, market concentration, the quiet consumer stock bear market, and where DCP would finally get long. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:21 Why Bond Yields Keep Rising 07:30 Can Main Street Survive Higher Rates? 11:15 Can Treasury Stop The Selloff? 16:22 What Can’t The Fed Fix? 19:54 Why Higher Yields Remain The Pain Trade 23:13 What Breaks The AI Boom? 26:38 The Generational Bond Bull Market Is Over 29:47 Can Geopolitics Reverse The Selloff? 35:55 How Do You Trade This Market? 39:34 Could 6% Yields Break Markets? 44:21 What Is The Market Hiding? 50:04 The Trade After Something Breaks 53:48 Would You Short The AI Leaders? 58:45 Final Thoughts and Key Trade Levels FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › DCP – https://x.com/Dcpcooks › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn– https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks. –https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_6xkDwJy-Ux1Ko3q8H8LmOfbVNk-tTlI/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for. one ofthe biggest weeks in crypto. Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
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About Forward Guidance
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.
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