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by Collin Kettell
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- Yesterday40 min
Ted Oakley: Why This Is ‘Much Worse’ Than The 1970s – And That’s Good For Gold
Ted Oakley, founder of Oxbow Advisors, warns that the current risk-reward setup in financial markets is unfavorable, with potential rewards of only 5-6% against risks of 25-30%. He believes earnings estimates for 2027 are too high, citing a slowdown in AI growth, a struggling real estate sector, and declining manufacturing. Oakley expects the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes to be a mistake, potentially leading to a sluggish economy in early 2027. He maintains a defensive posture with 55% of portfolios in short-term Treasuries, emphasizing that cash is the only safe haven during market declines. Oakley sees value in energy stocks, which trade at low single-digit P/E multiples, but notes they are not immune to a broad downturn. He has trimmed energy positions after recent highs. He holds gold bullion as a long-term currency hedge against persistent fiscal deficits and dollar debasement, though he expects near-term volatility. Gold miners are attractively valued with strong earnings and reduced debt, but Oakley awaits a clearer market bottom before adding. He also favors royalty companies like Wheaton and Franco-Nevada for their lower capital risk. Other commodity exposures include iron ore, copper, and fertilizers, with the latter benefiting from potential agricultural demand due to La Niña. Oakley’s firm, Oxbow Advisors, prioritizes capital preservation over aggressive growth, catering to clients who have experienced liquidity events and seek to avoid significant losses. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:00:47 – Risk/Reward and Market Positioning00:02:09 – Where Do the Risk/Reward Numbers Come From?00:03:23 – Current Market Multiples and Earnings00:04:42 – Tail Risk and the Wealth Effect00:05:52 – AI Boom vs. Historical Bubbles00:07:18 – Portfolio Defensiveness and Cash Allocation00:09:46 – Outlook on US Treasury Market00:12:15 – Hard Asset Allocation Strategy00:13:44 – Energy Cycle and Middle East Conflict00:16:26 – Energy Valuations and Quality Gates00:20:01 – Importance of Inventory in Energy00:22:10 – Gold Outlook and Portfolio Role00:24:22 – Rate Hikes and Gold Dynamics00:29:41 – Gold Miners and Royalty Companies00:36:06 – Fertilizer and Agriculture Outlook Links https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors https://oxbowadvisors.com https://www.youtube.com/user/OxbowAdvisors About the Guest J. Ted Oakley, CFA, CFP, is Managing Director and Founder of Oxbow Advisors. With more than forty years of experience in advising high net worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, Thoughtful Money, The David Lin Report, and many more. Mr. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Mr. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 40 years ago. He is the author of Eleven books: You Sold Your Company, $30 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, Your Money Mentality, Stay Rich with a Balanced Portfolio & his 2025 latest release: Second Generation Wealth. Mr. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation. Mr. Oakley recently arranged for Foster Angels in South Texas to represent The Heart Gallery of Texas to further their adoption efforts.
- 2 days ago45 min
Jeffrey Christian: The Money Supply To Go ‘Parabolic’ & The Gold Renaissance
Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group provides a comprehensive analysis of the gold market, arguing that we are in the middle of multiple bullish cycles. He identifies a long-term “gold renaissance” that began in 2000-2002, with a second leg up starting in 2019. While gold has pulled back from recent highs, Christian believes this is a consolidation within a larger uptrend that could continue for another year or two. He emphasizes that the primary drivers are a deeply hostile macroeconomic and political environment, including economic stagnation, rising global debt, and a breakdown in international cooperation, which continue to push investors toward gold as a safe haven. Christian dismisses the idea of a gold price “reset” or a return to a gold standard, calling such notions a fantasy due to the market’s size and liquidity. He explains that central banks are buying gold for diversification, not as a settlement currency, and that the dollar remains the preferred reserve asset despite its problems. He also provides a nuanced view on silver, noting it will likely see sharp price spikes but will underperform gold on a long-term average basis due to its smaller market and industrial demand dynamics, which are being impacted by substitution in solar panels. On the current dip, Christian suggests the floor may have been reached, as many investors and central banks are waiting for lower prices to buy. He states he will only consider selling his gold when he sees concrete signs of a more stable and optimistic outlook, specifically two consecutive fiscally responsible U.S. administrations—a scenario he does not expect to see in his lifetime. He advises caution in the junior mining sector, emphasizing that strong management is more critical than the quality of the properties themselves. Timestamps 00:00:00 – Introduction00:04:40 – Key Economic & Political Problems00:08:35 – Global Debt & Treasury Market Dynamics00:13:00 – Will the Dollar Collapse? Avoiding Doom00:15:29 – Parabolic Money Printing & Fed Capacity00:18:36 – Gold Monetary Reset: Fantasy vs. Reality00:22:40 – Gold as a Settlement Currency? BRICS Myth00:28:19 – Current Gold Dip: Attractive Add or More Downside?00:30:49 – When Will This Bull Market End?00:33:01 – Historical Fiscal Stringency & Market Cycles00:37:14 – Silver Thesis: Less Optimistic Than Gold00:40:38 – Silver Spikes vs. Long-Term Performance00:41:12 – Gold Miners: Treacherous but Lucrative00:42:26 – About CPM Group & Free Resources Links https://x.com/CPMGroupLLC https://www.cpmgroup.com/ mailto:info@cpmgroup.com https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos About the Guest Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006. Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company. He has advised many of the world’s largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments.
- 4 days ago1h 1m
Luke Gromen: The US Needs A ‘Much Higher’ Gold Price – Here’s Why
Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, argues that the next few decades will be radically different from the last, driven by the unsustainability of Western social welfare states, massive global debt, and the end of the post-1971 dollar system. He describes a “long cycle” where decades of easy credit and overconsumption have led to a “winter” phase, characterized by demographic crises and a fragile financial system. Gromen highlights the core dilemma: the U.S. must reshore its industrial base to remain a sovereign power, but doing so requires massive inflation, which would destroy the bond market. He frames this as a choice between saving the dollar or saving the bond market, arguing the only viable path is to let the dollar fall and inflate away the debt, effectively destroying bondholders’ real returns. Gromen explains that reshoring is nearly impossible without China’s cooperation, as China dominates critical supply chains. He uses electricity generation and auto consumption as metrics to show the U.S. has stagnated in real terms for 20 years, while China has surged. He predicts a multi-decade period of secular inflation, with gold as the ultimate beneficiary. Gromen sees gold’s rise as a necessary mechanism for the U.S. to retain sovereignty, as a higher gold price allows the country to rebuild its industrial and military base. He notes that the infrastructure for a gold revaluation is already in place, citing the indictment of JP Morgan’s gold desk, Basel III changes, and China’s gold-for-oil trade, and suggests a U.S. gold-backed bond could trigger a massive arbitrage that forces gold much higher. Timestamps 00:00:00 – Introduction00:00:09 – Are the next decades wildly different?00:02:38 – Long cycles, social welfare, and overconsumption00:05:47 – Unsustainability of Western social democracy00:09:13 – Can reindustrialization save the West?00:12:25 – Why can’t the US reshore without China?00:14:27 – US vs China: Rising vs declining power00:20:36 – Save the dollar or save the bond market?00:26:30 – Generational bear market for bonds00:30:01 – Will all currencies fall against gold?00:32:14 – Foreign holdings of US debt and crisis risk00:36:13 – Is this a multi-decade inflationary phenomenon?00:41:29 – Could a gold reset solve the crisis?00:48:40 – Price discovery mechanics for gold00:57:26 – Gold miners vs bullion in current environment Links https://x.com/lukegromen https://fftt-llc.com/ About the Guest Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients. He aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources. In 2006, Luke left FTN Midwest to become a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company. At CRC, Luke continued to work in sales and edit CRC’s flagship weekly research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s customers. In 2014, Luke left Cleveland Research to found FFTT, LLC (“Forest for the Trees”), a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals that aggregates a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic, and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks. Luke also provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives. He is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University and earned the CFA designation in 2003.
- 1 weeks ago1h 5m
John Ciampaglia: Silver is ‘Incredible Cheap’, Futures Manipulation & The Return of Gold
John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, joins Palisades Gold Radio to discuss the transformative shift in metals and mining over the past five years. He explains that the sector has moved from being ignored by institutional investors to becoming a strategic necessity, driven by commodity price breakouts, strong balance sheets, and geopolitical factors like China’s weaponization of critical minerals. Ciampaglia emphasizes that gold remains in a bull market despite a sharp correction, noting that fundamentals such as debt levels, stagflation, and geopolitical risk remain unchanged. He highlights central bank buying, particularly by China, as a key driver, with countries rotating from paper assets like U.S. treasuries into physical gold and other hard assets. The conversation covers the role of gold as a monetary metal, with Ciampaglia drawing parallels to the 1970s stagflation era. He discusses the potential for increased investor demand as institutions reconsider traditional portfolio allocations, citing Morgan Stanley’s shift toward a 60-20-20 model with gold as a new component. On silver, he notes its volatility and the impact of India’s import restrictions, which have removed a major physical buyer, but remains constructive on long-term supply deficits and industrial demand. Ciampaglia also addresses the risks of paper markets and leverage, advocating for fully allocated physical metals through Sprott’s products. Ciampaglia provides insights into the mining complex, praising improved management discipline and free cash flow generation, while acknowledging short-term market noise and uncertainty. He discusses copper’s strategic importance, driven by electrification, AI data centers, and supply constraints, and highlights Sprott’s unique physical copper trust. For uranium, he outlines a structural supply deficit, the shift back to nuclear energy as baseload power, and the long lead times for new mines, concluding that incentive pricing remains ahead. He directs listeners to Sprott’s website for educational resources and insights. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction and John’s Background00:02:21 – Why Now for Metals and Mining?00:06:46 – Gold Bull Market and Current Correction00:12:42 – Stagflation Parallels to the 1970s00:16:34 – Gold as a Monetary Metal and Reset00:21:24 – Investor Demand and Portfolio Allocation00:25:06 – Risks of Paper Gold and Futures Markets00:28:44 – Silver Market Manipulation and India00:33:04 – Silver’s Bull Case and Volatility00:37:10 – Gold Mining Stocks and Leverage00:42:33 – Sentiment and Wall of Worry for Miners00:45:20 – Copper: Physical vs Miners00:52:42 – Uranium Supply Deficit and Nuclear Revival01:03:05 – Closing Thoughts and Resources Links https://sprott.com/ About the Guest John Ciampaglia is Chief Executive Officer, Sprott Asset Management and Senior Managing Partner, Sprott Inc. He has over 30 years of investment industry experience and oversees Sprott’s public market investment strategies, as well as serving as the Portfolio Manager for the company’s physical commodity funds. Mr. Ciampaglia plays an active role in developing new investment strategies, acquisitions, marketing and strategic partnerships. Before joining Sprott in 2010, he was a Senior Executive at Invesco Canada, serving as Senior Vice President, Product Development. Prior to joining Invesco Canada, he spent more than four years at TD Asset Management. Mr. Ciampaglia earned a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from York University, is a CFA® charterholder and a Fellow of the Canadian Securities Institute.
- 1 weeks ago48 min
Douglas Macgregor: The ‘Most Intense’ Operation of Iran War, Boots on The Ground & The Role of Gold
Colonel Douglas Macgregor, a decorated combat veteran and former advisor to the U.S. Secretary of Defense, joins Palisades Gold Radio to discuss the escalating geopolitical landscape and its implications for global markets. He argues that the world is de-globalizing and the post-1945 order is collapsing, with Washington trapped in a struggle for global hegemony it can no longer afford. Macgregor dismisses any notion of a negotiated resolution in the Middle East, predicting a massive air assault on Iran that will likely fail to achieve its objectives, potentially leading to the use of tactical nuclear weapons—a dangerous precedent that could legitimize their use by other nations. Macgregor highlights the strategic failures of U.S. military power, noting that despite unprecedented defense spending, the U.S. cannot defend its allies against Iranian and Houthi missile attacks. He points to the destruction of Gulf oil infrastructure and the collapse of U.S. credibility as key consequences. This military impotence, combined with financial strain, is accelerating the shift toward resource sovereignty and regional blocs. He emphasizes that the U.S. is losing the competition for critical minerals and rare earths, particularly in Africa, while China and Russia are gaining ground, and suggests that Canada and Latin America offer the best opportunities for U.S. resource security. On the economic front, Macgregor argues that the Federal Reserve has lost control over inflation and that the U.S. is heading toward financial destruction. He predicts a commodity super cycle driven by underinvestment and geopolitical fragmentation, with gold prices set to rise dramatically, potentially reaching $10,000 an ounce by 2030. He dismisses short-term market fluctuations as noise, framing gold as a long-term hedge against the inevitable deterioration of the U.S. economy and the collapse of the current global financial system. Timestamps 00:00:00 – Introduction00:01:21 – Middle East Escalation Assessment00:03:11 – De-globalization and Hegemony00:05:41 – Elections and Policy Continuity00:06:32 – Preparatory Strikes on Iran00:07:23 – Massive Air Assault Expected00:08:47 – Tactical Nuclear Weapons Question00:12:57 – Dangerous Precedent of Nukes00:14:21 – Saudi War and US Credibility00:16:21 – China Containment and Military Limits00:19:21 – Energy and Mining Impact00:22:50 – Conspiracy Theories Debunked00:25:47 – Resource Sovereignty and Trade00:31:27 – China’s Gold Accumulation and Remonetization Guest Links https://douglasmacgregor.com https://x.com/DougAMacgregor https://substack.com/@coloneldoug https://www.youtube.com/@macgregorwarriordiplomacy https://breakingdefense.com/author/doug-macgregor/ About the Guest Douglas Macgregor is a decorated combat veteran, an author of five books, a PhD, and a defense and foreign policy consultant. Macgregor was commissioned in the Regular Army in 1976 after 1 year at VMI and 4 years at West Point. In 2004, Macgregor retired with the rank of Colonel. In 2020, the President appointed Macgregor to serve as Senior Advisor to the Secretary of Defense, a post he held until President Trump left office. He holds an MA in comparative politics and a PhD in international relations from the University of Virginia. Macgregor is widely known inside the U.S., Europe, Israel, Russia, China and Korea for both his leadership in the Battle of 73 Easting, the U.S. Army’s largest tank battle since World War II, and for his ground breaking books on military transformation: Breaking the Phalanx (Praeger, 1997) and Transformation under Fire (Praeger, 2003). Macgregor’s recommendations for change in Force Design and “integrated all arms-all effects” operations have profoundly influenced force development in Israel, Russia and China. In 2010, Macgregor traveled to Seoul, Korea to advise the ROK Ministry of Defense on force design. In 2019, Transformation under Fire was selected by Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi, Chief of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF), as the intellectual basis for IDF transformation. His fifth book, Margin of Victory: Five Battles that Changed the Face of Modern
- 1 weeks ago49 min
Josef Schachter: ‘Massive Upside’ In Oil Stocks & The Iran War Restart
Josef Schachter, author and president of the Schachter Energy Report, joins Palisades Gold Radio to assess the global energy system amid shifting Middle East geopolitics. Despite ongoing conflict, crude flows out of the Persian Gulf are running above pre-war levels—Saudi Arabia is even discounting barrels into Asia—yet refined products tell a different story. LNG, sulfur, nitrogen, and fertilizer exports remain constrained, and diesel shortages persist as Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries remove key supply from global markets. Schachter outlines three scenarios for the Iran conflict and assigns rough probabilities: a durable peace deal (30%), a limited air campaign that resolves nothing (roughly one-third), and a wider regional war (roughly one-third). With WTI near $97 and Brent near $105, he estimates $22–$25 per barrel of risk premium is priced in against an equilibrium value of roughly $75. A credible peace deal, in his view, could take another $20–$25 off crude—but he cautions that restocking strategic reserves, rebuilding damaged infrastructure, and restoring commercial inventories will take time, delaying rather than derailing the commodity super cycle he expects to run into the mid-2030s. On equities, Schachter argues energy stocks are discounting $70 oil while cash flow multiples of 2–3x sit well below proved developed producing reserve values—a classic cycle-bottom setup. He explains his framework for evaluating producers, the criteria he applies to entrepreneurial names (management track record, large land positions, infrastructure access, and supportive jurisdictions), and why Canadian producers offer cheaper entry points and greater drilling inventory than U.S. peers. He also covers natural gas, where growing LNG export capacity and data-center power demand could unlock higher prices, and outlines where investors can find his research and buy-signal alerts. Timestamps 00:00:00 – Introduction and Middle East war outlook00:00:46 – Energy system: crude flows vs product shortages00:04:54 – US election impact on markets and Iran policy00:06:32 – Saudi production, diesel shortage, refinery issues00:08:49 – Logistics, restocking, and commodity super cycle00:15:19 – Escalation scenario: oil at $120-130 and risks00:21:26 – Refinery damage and Persian Gulf escalation risks00:24:07 – Odds of peace vs war and oil risk premium00:27:16 – War delays super cycle; demand and restocking00:29:12 – Long-term commodity bull market until 2034-3600:36:14 – Buying the dip: integrated vs small producers00:38:01 – What to look for in entrepreneurial explorers00:42:00 – Natural gas stocks, LNG exports, power demand00:45:11 – Where to find research and closing remarks Links https://schachterenergyreport.ca About the Guest Subscription Discount for Palisade Listeners, $100 off the first year of our subscription, use coupon code “POD100” https://schachterenergyreport.ca/subscriptions/ Josef Schachter is a 40+ year veteran of the Canadian Investment Management Industry, Josef Schachter has experienced several exceptional and turbulent global economic and stock market cycles. With his primary focus in the stock market and the energy sector, Josef is able to weave global political, economic and monetary issues with current energy data into a compelling story of what’s going on, what is to come, and why. Josef is a frequent guest on Michael Campbell’s Podcast ‘Mikes Money Talks’ and other podcast and radio shows and is often quoted in the media. He is a regular Guest Speaker at the annual World Outlook Financial Conference in Vancouver and he delivers presentations to various companies and organizations. For several years, he was a frequent and notably colourful commentator on BNN Bloomberg’s Market Call. Josef provided Oil and Gas research to Maison Placements Canada geared to their institutional clients for 15 years ending April 2017, and was acknowledged as the first analyst in Canada to predict the Oil Price Plunge of 2014. Prior to establishing his firm Schachter Asset Management Inc. in 1996, Josef was the Chief Market Strategist at Richardson Greenshields, a Director of RGCL and a member of its Investment Policy Committee. He holds a Chartered Financial Analyst designation and is a past Chairman of the Canadian Council of Financial Analysts.
- 2 weeks ago45 min
Simon Hunt: Imminent Global Oil Shortages, The Iran War Restart & Why The US Empire Ends in 2032
Simon Hunt, a financial and geopolitical analyst, delivers a stark warning about an imminent escalation in the Middle East, arguing that the “House of Saud” is at risk of falling. He details a secret meeting in Tehran between Saudi Arabia’s defense minister and Iran’s security council, suggesting a major realignment. Hunt contends that the Houthi war on Saudi Arabia is a separate conflict that is successfully damaging oil infrastructure, and that a full-scale attack on Iran would lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crippling global energy supplies. He predicts a period of at least three years of extremely high prices for diesel, gasoline, and fertilizers, culminating in a major financial crash between 2030 and 2032. The conversation frames the current conflicts as a single, coordinated war against the US-led order, orchestrated by Beijing and Moscow. Hunt argues that America’s long-term strategy to control global resources is failing, as Iran is fully backed by Russia and China. He suggests we are witnessing the end of the American empire and the birth of a multipolar world, with a potential for a major war between 2028 and 2032. For investors, he advises a nimble, short-term approach, predicting a recession in 2027 followed by a resurgence of double-digit inflation by 2029. Hunt’s key actionable takeaways are to treat gold as a security and liquidity hedge, not a speculative trade, and to watch Beijing rather than Washington for the true revaluation of the metal. He highlights that Chinese households have accumulated over 28,000 tonnes of physical gold, which could revalue their economy by $20 trillion. Ultimately, he recommends focusing on short-term market cycles and avoiding long-term investment commitments in the face of extreme volatility and geopolitical risk. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:01:34 – Iran War Restart Analysis00:03:11 – Houthi War on Saudi Arabia00:06:42 – Strait of Hormuz Closure Threat00:09:32 – Second Strike Odds & US Risks00:13:37 – Energy War & Relative Power00:18:52 – 3-5 Year High Energy Prices00:22:54 – Global Fuel Shortages Loom00:25:48 – Elections & War Timing00:27:17 – Beijing & Moscow Pulling Strings00:30:58 – End of Empire & Multipolar World00:33:10 – Resource Wars & Demographics00:36:28 – 2027 Recession & Fed Strategy00:40:41 – Gold as Security & China’s Hoard Links mailto:simon@shss.com https://simon-hunt.com/ https://www.theinstitutionalstrategist.com/products-and-services/frontline-china/ About the Guest Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia. In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe. He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company’s cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level. He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia. The focus of the company’s services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China’s economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected. Simon is the author of the “Frontline China Report Service,” which i
- 2 weeks ago57 min
Michael Every: Resources Are The Real Driver of War – The Iran War Restart
Michael Every argues that the current geopolitical landscape is defined by a single, multi-front conflict between the US and China, with the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine serving as key battlegrounds. He predicts a re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict immediately after the US midterm elections, viewing it as a deliberate US strategy to destabilize global energy and commodity supply chains. The core objective, he suggests, is not necessarily to seize resources, but to create a “two-speed” world where the US and its allies have cheaper, more reliable access to critical inputs like oil, LNG, and food, while adversaries like China face far higher costs and logistical hurdles. A surprising data point Every highlights is the massive divergence in global oil prices. While Brent crude futures may sit around $115, the actual cost of a barrel of Middle Eastern crude delivered to Shanghai can be as high as $150 due to war risk insurance, longer shipping routes around Africa, and a shortage of tankers. In contrast, Canadian crude delivered to the US via pipeline costs roughly $70. This deliberate fragmentation of commodity markets, he argues, is a powerful, underappreciated tool of US statecraft, mirroring China’s dominance in rare earths. He also notes that shipping a barrel from the Persian Gulf to Asia now costs $20-30, up from a normal $2-3, illustrating the extreme tightness in refined product markets. The key actionable takeaway for investors and businesses is to prepare for a world of “higher for longer” inflation and interest rates, driven by the expensive process of rearmament, reindustrialization, and supply chain restructuring. Every advises against assuming a return to the free-flowing, low-cost global economy of the past. He is skeptical of a return to a gold standard, arguing that governments will need “soft money” to finance this expensive geopolitical competition. Instead, he recommends focusing on resilience, diversification, and understanding that physical resources and supply chain control are the ultimate sources of power in this new era. Timestamps 00:00:00 – Hormuz Attacks Spike Shipping Costs00:00:44 – War with Iran: Imminent Restart?00:03:48 – Why Not Preemptive Strike?00:05:09 – Conflict Drivers: US-China Cold War00:09:21 – US-China Power Dynamics00:12:15 – Demographics: Least Dirty Shirt00:16:44 – Ukraine: Another Front of Same War00:20:41 – Resources as Power Leverage00:23:29 – Iran War: Resource Control or Weaponization?00:26:31 – Energy Tightness and Price Disparities00:31:51 – US Leverage: Oil, LNG, Copper, Agriculture00:35:02 – Fertilizers and Sulfur Supply Gaps00:36:26 – Escalation: Air Campaign or Ground Troops?00:38:29 – Targeting Energy and Desalination Plants00:40:02 – Merging Wars: Ukraine and Middle East00:43:24 – East Asia Flashpoints and Tail Risks00:45:25 – Implications for Life, Business, and Investing00:50:00 – Gold’s Role in a Fragmented World00:55:50 – Follow Michael Every’s Work Links https://www.rabobank.com/ https://hk.linkedin.com/pub/michael-every/14/832/389 https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery About the Guest Michael Every is a Global Strategist at Rabobank. He analyses major financial developments and contributes to the bank’s various economic research publications for internal and external customers and to the media. Michael has over two decades of experience working as an Economist and Strategist. Before Rabobank, he was a Director at Silk Road Associates in Bangkok, Senior Economist and Fixed Income Strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in both London and Sydney, and an Economist for Dun & Bradstreet in London. Michael holds a Masters degree in Economics (with distinction) from University College London and speaks a smattering of languages, including Thai.
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