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The Jacob Shapiro Podcast: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Jacob Shapiro
Hosted by Jacob Shapiro, the Jacob Shapiro Podcast is long-form exploration of geopolitics, markets, crypto, agriculture, macro-finance, commodities, ForEx, and much much more! Interviews with experts across the globe, and roundups of global financial and geopolitical events.
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- 6 days ago1h 4m
Rabbit Season, Duck Season
Inside you are two wolves. One (Michael Every) looks at Washington and sees a plan. The other (Jacob) looks at the same info and sees chaos. Somewhere north of both is the sovereign nation of Canada - a country discovering what it actually costs to step away from Washington and forge out on its own. Is Carney brave or delusional? Does scale decide everything? When the polite fictions come down, what's left holding any of this together? Tune in for a real disagreement between people who like each other, both wolves get fed. --Timestamps: - Welcome and Setup - Meet Michael Every - Why This Debate - Canada Opening Salvo - Every on Strategy - Canada EU China Options - Sovereignty and Pain - Defense Reality Check - US Threat vs Russia - US Security Red Lines - Polling Turns on Canada - Tariffs Without Strategy - Japan and Korea Pushback - Supply Chains Still China - Defining Real Statecraft - Macro Strategy Defense - Tariffs and Dollar Overreach - Trial and Error Governance - Geopolitical Plays Venezuela Iran - What Actually Comes Back - Work Culture and Foundry Schools - Rebuilding the Whole System - Fear Moments and Next Steps - Stablecoins and New Finance - Scale Matters Canada vs US - Closing and Where to Follow--Referenced in the Show:Michael Every - https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/our-experts/011085368/michael-every--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
- 1 weeks ago1h 6m
The $10 Trillion Ocean
The world has never been wealthier... but a warm patch of ocean in the Pacific is about to reorganize the weather across four continents and all that wealth still might not be enough to cover the damages. Climate scientist Justin Mankin studies how much these events actually cost - and his estimates run to $10 trillion or more in global economic loss over the next five years. Big numbers, short timeframe, scary outlook. But the hardest question that Dr. Mankin brought up with us wasn't about how we're gunna pay for all of this, it's about what gets lost when we measure disasters in GDP instead of lives. Do we want richer world or a better one?--Timestamps: - Welcome and Guest Intro - Why El Niño Matters Now - El Niño and IOD Explained - Teleconnections and Predictability - El Niño Life Cycle and Timing - Defining Normal in Climate Data - How El Niño Is Measured - ONI vs RONI and Super El Niño Hype - Drought Monitoring and Shifting Baselines - How Gnarly Is El Niño - Warming World Impacts - Counting El Niño Costs - El Niño to La Niña - Springback Physics Explained - Trillions in Damages - Causal Inference Methods - Conflict and Thresholds - Five Year Outlook - Closing and Credits--Referenced in the Show:Justin's Research - https://jsmankin.github.io/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
- 2 weeks ago1h 11m
Boil the Frog
Scott Bessent knows something that we don't. Luke Gromen has spent his whole career reading the fine print of America's balance sheet, and his conclusion is stark: the quiet interventions coming out of Washington - doubled bond buybacks, a yen rescue, a sudden fondness for stablecoins - aren't policy. They're symptoms. The arithmetic of debt, entitlements, and interest has crossed a threshold from which, Gromen argues, there are only three exits, and none of them are painless. We've got a crisis hiding in plain sight - and someone is gunna end up paying for it.--Timestamps: - Welcome and Guest Intro - Past Episode Reflections - Bitcoin and AI Disagreements - Luke Returns to the Show - Why Everything Feels Faster - Bessent and Bond Buybacks - True Interest Expense Alarm - Is It a Crisis Yet - Crisis Symptoms and Options - Japan Treasury Selling Fears - Allies Follow China Playbook - Stablecoins and CLARITY Act - No Silver Bullet - Inflation Over Bonds - Gold and Bitcoin Hedge - No Currency Alternative - China Gold Yuan System - Gold as Neutral Reserve - Multipolar Reserve Trap - Zugzwang and Supply Chains - Back to Gold Energy Link - AI Boom Then Bust - White Collar Disruption - Closing Thoughts and Outro--Referenced in the Show:Forest For The Trees - https://fftt-llc.com/about/ --Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
- 3 weeks ago58 min
Pulped
AI companies are buying up used books, scanning them, and destroying the originals. At least, that's the headline... the real story is weirder. Charlie Becker, a seventh-generation bookseller in Houston, went viral for tracing one of these mysterious bulk orders - following overlooked books into Amazon warehouses filled with entire categories of obscure human knowledge. Today we're taking the plunge into a mystery that spans artificial intelligence, culture, and the LTV of a "rare" book. --Timestamps: - Episode setup and guest intro - Mic check and welcome - Viral post and lawsuit context - Who is Charlie Becker - Amazon warehouse mystery - Which books are vanishing - FBA arbitrage and pulping - Amazon irony and AI layer - ISBN gap and metadata tool - Missing middle and preservation risk - Used Bookstore Churn Myth - Why Obscure Books Matter - AI Is Not Retrieval - Cookbook Chef Metaphor - Smaller Models Personal Agents - Houston Bookstore Renaissance - Book Crawl Themed Shops - Foreign Language Treasure Troves - Estate Libraries Rare Finds - Mystery Bulk Orders Explained - Optimism And Preservation Tool - Internet Slop Back To Bookstores - Closing Thanks And Outro--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
- Aug 11, 202657 min
Cooler Heads Are Not Prevailing
Jacob Shapiro welcomes back Peter Harrell, visiting scholar at Georgetown's Institute of International Economic Law and former White House senior director for international economics. Trump keeps finding new legal tools - including a forgotten 1930 law now aimed at Canada - and companies have stopped investing because they can't guess what comes next :/ Also, Washington has quietly bought stakes in 37 companies, with no rules and almost no transparency around any of it.--Timestamps: - Welcome and Setup - Why Tariffs Matter Now - Rapid Fire Tariff Tools - Supreme Court Fallout - Graham Sanctions Act - Smoot Hawley Meets USMCA - Canada Tariff Mechanics - What Trump Wants - USMCA Future Scenarios - After Trump Trade Path - Next President Tariff Reset - Trade Policy Inflection - Biden vs Trump Tariffs - China Tariffs Reality - Rules of Origin Loopholes - Democrats China Debate - Industrial Policy Needed - Drones Case Study - Manufacturing Culture Shift - Investment Needs Certainty - Government Equity Stakes - Sovereign Wealth Concerns - Wrap Up and Outro--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
- Jul 31, 20261h 27m
Lessons Learned - Geopolitical Cousins
Round two. Same four analysts, a lot more whiskey, and a lot less structure. Peter Zeihan, Marko Papic, and Matt Gertken sit back down with Jacob - a man who cut his teeth pestering all three of them for their pieces as a Stratfor intern - for an unfiltered conversation about how they actually became geopolitical strategists. They trade formative-moment stories from Stratfor's early-2000s "golden age" (including the Egypt/Mubarak call that made Jacob's career), debate whether corporate America can ever hire real geopolitical talent, and each name the one book that shaped how they see the world - from World War Z to Aristotle to The Ingenuity Gap. Along the way: George Friedman lore, the DC Comics-vs-Marvel theory of geopolitical shops, and a genuinely moving closing tribute to the mentor who built this whole coaching tree. Part reunion, part masterclass in how to think about the world - and part roast session.--Timestamps: - Welcome Back Round Two - Whiskey And Loose Format - Formative Stratfor Moments - Arab Spring Cred Test - Stratfor Coaching Tree - Pipeline After Cold War - Academia Versus Geopolitics - Analyst Craft And Courage - Chief Geopolitical Officer Debate - Training Gap And Time Horizons - Universities And MBA Reform - Ideology And Groupthink - Theory Versus Practice - Frameworks Beat Facts - Operationalizing Geopolitics - Training Pipelines and MBAs - Sector Specialists and Scale - Everyone a Geostrategist - Deglobalization in Fashion - Formative Books Roundtable - Great Men and Psychology - Empathetic Analysis Explained - Displacement and Perspective - Formative Experiences Teaser - Yugoslavia Falls Apart - Tito Memories and Disillusion - Conspiracies and Nihilism - Identity in the Balkans - Living With Uncertainty - Midwest Roots and Leaving Home - Can Places Change - America as Debate Laboratory - Learning to Write Analysis - Chip on Shoulder Mindset - Morality Versus Analysis - Breaking Intellectual Chains - Finding the Fulcrum Question - Final Words and Gratitude--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: <a href="https://www
- Jul 29, 20261h 40m
This Is The Way The World Ends (w/ Zeihan & Gertken) - Geopolitical Cousins
Sixteen years after last sharing a table together, four Stratfor alumni reunite for a wide-ranging conversation on the decade ahead. Jacob and Marko are joined by Peter Zeihan, and Matt Gertken to tackle three questions: How does the world end in the next 10 years? What core belief could each of us get wrong? And what's the least expected, most likely thing to happen next?The conversation ranges from deglobalization and collapsing oil supply chains to the demographic cliff facing the developed world, the odds of deflation versus inflation in the 2030s, and whether the global order ends up multipolar, bipolar, or unipolar. They also debate the odds of a US-China clash over Taiwan, and whether the nation-state can survive a coming showdown with the tech companies and billionaires who increasingly control critical infrastructure - including orbit.--Timestamps: - Welcome and Setup - Reunion at the Table - Episode Premise and Format - Zeihan on Deglobalization - Energy Shock Fallout - Demographics and Demand Crash - Deflation vs Inflation Debate - Drone Warfare Dark Turn - Semiconductors Reality Check - Marco Goes Nuclear - Russia Collapse Scenarios - Nukes Spread and Ukraine Endgame - Supply Chain Shockwaves - Putin Hell Bar Joke - Europe Expansion Debate - EU Becomes Military Union - Post Putin Chaos Risks - Russian Elite Succession - Civil War Nuclear Fear - China Fills The Vacuum - Taiwan Timeline Scenario - Drones Nukes And Invasion - Deterrence And Flashpoints - China Demographics Clash - Depopulation Not Disaster - Black Plague Lessons - Automation Versus Depopulation - Japan China Depopulation Debate - End of Nation State - Shocks and State Capacity - Broken World of More - Knowledge Networks Collapse - Affluence Feudalism Demand - Brittle AI Chip Supply - Ingenuity Gap Reversal - Rapid Fire Predictions - State Versus Tech Showdown - Wrap and Break--Referenced in the Show:https://zeihan.com/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
- Jul 21, 20261h 1m
Geography is Destiny: China, The Global South, & Energy
Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China Global South Project, joins the pod to discuss the developments on the other side of the globe. From Ho Chi Minh City, Eric explains how the Global South actually sees the US-Iran war, why nobody expects China to ride to anyone's rescue, and how Vietnam's tariff and energy shocks became a never-again moment. He and Jacob dig into the myth that tariffs can implode China, America's fading China literacy, and why the next order won't be Chinese-led - but China will be its transformational character.*Note: There are some weird buzzing sounds in the pod, we know! There was some sort of issue uploading the audio, we're on it.--Timestamps: - Welcome and Guest Intro - World Cup Travel Chaos - Soccer Politics and Tensions - Meet Eric Olander - China’s Transformation Story - Global South Views of China - China as Daily Operating System - Pew Poll Surprises Explained - Southeast Asia vs Northeast Asia - Why Philippines Aligns With US - Japan Taiwan Flashpoint - Supply Chains and Sea Lanes - Japan Rearms for Post US Era - Japan’s Regional Influence - Japan as Counterbalance - Drone Age Security Shift - South China Sea Alarm - Iran War Global South - China Gains and Risks - No Alliance Expectations - ICBM Test Explained - Decoupling and US Pragmatists - People to People Breakdown - China Blowing Europe Window - Mutual Misunderstanding Finale - Closing Thanks and Signoff--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--Mentioned in this episode:Check Out Future Hindsight!If you enjoy our podcast, check out our homies over at Future Hindsight! It's an award-winning weekly podcast that takes big ideas about civic life and democracy and turns them into action items for you and me. Learn more at www.futurehindsight.com/
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About The Jacob Shapiro Podcast
Hosted by Jacob Shapiro, the Jacob Shapiro Podcast is long-form exploration of geopolitics, markets, crypto, agriculture, macro-finance, commodities, ForEx, and much much more! Interviews with experts across the globe, and roundups of global financial and geopolitical events.
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