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Less Noise, More Signal: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Pascal
Welcome to Less Noise, More Signal. In a world saturated with news, hype, and endless chatter, finding clarity can seem like searching for a needle in a haystack. I’ve taken on this challenge and made it my mission to cut through the noise by amplifying the signal. Who am I? I’m Pascal Hügli. With a background in political philosophy, a career in investment management, and a deep expertise in Bitcoin and digital assets, I’m here to explore the ideas and connections that others do not bother to see. It’s not just about finding the right answers; it’s about asking the right questions. In each episode, I interview the most insightful thinkers in their respective fields. Every guest contributes a vital piece to the puzzle, helping us form a clearer picture of the forces shaping our world of macro, finance, and money. Listen in as my guests and I tilt the balance from noise to signal, one podcast episode at a time.
Latest Episodes
The most recent episodes — sign up to get AI-powered summaries of each one.
- 3 days ago1h 9m
The $1.7 Trillion Stimulus Nobody Is Talking About
MEMBERSHIPSBecome a premium member on YouTube and Spotify for early access and bonus content. Join now!DISCUSSION 💬Join the discussion on Telegram: https://t.me/+OgDv1Djbvs80M2FkEPISODEEPISODEIn this episode, Douglas Paget, a macro researcher and founder of Applied MMT, shares his insights on modern monetary theory, the current macroeconomic landscape, and implications for markets and policy. We explore how government spending, interest rates, and fiscal policy influence the business cycle and asset prices.Follow Douglas Padgett 👉 https://x.com/mmtmacrotraderSUPPORT⚡️LNMS on Lightning: lnms@ln.mtpelerin.com₿ BTC-Address: bc1qmk7gfdnrdegnmnrtnacj6rslan0y6v29kdlf9p💵https://buy.stripe.com/9B600k5Tscv33Ue4zRdby00Twint: https://go.twint.ch/1/e/tw?tw=acq.Z7L1opJwS72nbGgEMY4w3ILkf67JAEyEFmXrtoKoUbONWSsjLDDQIhNx5ReanPy7.LINKS 📰 LNMS Newsletter: https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack.com/🎧 LNMS on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/4apksnyn🎧 LNMS on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/ttha8kku🎧 LNMS on Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/4k96c7tw🎧 LNMS on Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/5dsbbj5p🌐 LNMS Website: https://www.lessnoise-moresignal.com/📖 Bitcoin Book: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013🎧 LNMS on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4jfhr4znSOCIALSFollow on X👉 https://x.com/pahuegFollow on Nostr 👉 https://primal.net/pascalFollow on LinkedIn 👉 https://www.linkedin.com/in/pascal-huegli/CHAPTERS00:00 Intro02:16 The mechanics of government borrowing and spending laws07:21 The influence of government and fiscal policy on the business cycle10:28 Historical context of fiscal deficits and economic growth15:12 Asset allocation: stocks, bonds, and commodities in macro context16:10 The role of the Fed and market expectations on yields20:26 Control over the yield curve and interest rates22:16 Japan's rate policy and implications for the US24:36 The income channel and its effect on the business cycle27:01 Policy tools to influence long-term interest rates29:42 The trade-off between low rates and economic growth32:08 Implications of high government spending and inflation35:01 Market signals, flow dynamics, and seasonality effects37:47 Short-term macro outlook and risks to assets40:08 Seasonality, fiscal cycles, and market stability43:24 Inflation, oil prices, and the real economy45:02 The impact of technological innovation and productivity47:23 Philosophical and political considerations of macroeconomic policy49:23 Historical lessons from deficits, bubbles, and crises50:23 Closing remarks and investment strategies in macro contextDisclaimerThe publications on this website and in these videos, including any references and links, are provided for information purposes only and do not constitute investment advice, investment analysis, or an offer or recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments. They do not replace investment or other professional advice. The information reflects the state of knowledge at the time of preparation and may be changed at any time without notice. The content is intended for natural people only. No liability is accepted for the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided, its sources, or for any resulting losses or damages. Liability for slight negligence is excluded. Marketing communication. Not investment advice. Investing involves risk. Transactions in Bitcoin may result in the total loss of the capital invested.
- 4 days ago10 min
Stablecoins Could Break the Banks’ Last Monopoly
FULL EPISODEhttps://youtu.be/5miw9cE3r2ADISCUSSION 💬Join the discussion on Telegram: https://t.me/+OgDv1Djbvs80M2FkCLIP Stablecoins may be much more than a crypto story. Izabella Kaminska argues they could help the US preserve global dollar dominance while bringing control over the underlying Treasury assets back onshore. And if stablecoins begin paying competitive yields, they could threaten one of the banking system’s most valuable remaining advantages: cheap deposits.SUPPORT⚡️LNMS on Lightning: lnms@ln.mtpelerin.com ₿ BTC-Address: bc1qmk7gfdnrdegnmnrtnacj6rslan0y6v29kdlf9p💵https://donate.stripe.com/9B600k5Tscv...Twint: https://go.twint.ch/1/e/tw?tw=acq.Z7L…LINKS 📰 LNMS Newsletter: https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack....🎧 LNMS on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4jfhr4zn🎧 LNMS on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/4apksnyn🎧 LNMS on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/ttha8kku🎧 LNMS on Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/4k96c7tw🎧 LNMS on Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/5dsbbj5p🌐 LNMS Website: https://www.lessnoise-moresignal.com/📖 Bitcoin Book: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013SOCIALS Follow on X👉 https://x.com/pahuegFollow on Nostr 👉 https://primal.net/pascalFollow on LinkedIn 👉 / pascal-huegli
- 1 weeks ago1h 1m
Bitcoin’s “Great Hardening” Has Begun
TBL & LNMS CollaborationMEMBERSHIPSBecome a premium member on YouTube and Spotify for early access and bonus content. Join now!DISCUSSION 💬Join the discussion on Telegram: https://t.me/+OgDv1Djbvs80M2FkEPISODEEPISODEAI is getting powerful enough to attack Bitcoin infrastructure. But could the same AI revolution also make Bitcoin more valuable? In this episode, Johan Bergman von The Bitcoin Layer and Pascal Hügli from Less Noise More Signal unpack the Liquid exploit, Bitcoin’s “Great Hardening,” and why AI could fundamentally reshape cybersecurity. Then They flip the thesis: the massive AI investment boom may actually strengthen the case for Bitcoin as the ultimate AI trade. They also break down where Bitcoin stands right now, why the four-year cycle may finally be dead, and the key levels that could decide what comes next: $70K, $80K and $90K. Is Bitcoin still in a bear market, or are the bears running out of time?Follow Johan Bergman 👉https://x.com/johanmbergmanSUPPORT⚡️LNMS on Lightning: lnms@ln.mtpelerin.com₿ BTC-Address: bc1qmk7gfdnrdegnmnrtnacj6rslan0y6v29kdlf9p💵https://buy.stripe.com/9B600k5Tscv33U...Twint: https://go.twint.ch/1/e/tw?tw=acq.Z7L....LINKS 📰 LNMS Newsletter: https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack....🎧 LNMS on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/4apksnyn🎧 LNMS on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/ttha8kku🎧 LNMS on Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/4k96c7tw🎧 LNMS on Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/5dsbbj5p🌐 LNMS Website: https://www.lessnoise-moresignal.com/📖 Bitcoin Book: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013🎧 LNMS on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4jfhr4znSOCIALSFollow on X👉 https://x.com/pahuegFollow on Nostr 👉 https://primal.net/pascalFollow on LinkedIn 👉 / pascal-huegli CHAPTERS00:00 Introduction to the episode and guests02:01 Exploring the Liquid network and its vulnerabilities04:03 Details of the Liquid hack and how it was executed05:47 The role of federated models and multi-sig in crypto security07:49 The impact of AI on cybersecurity and potential future threats10:07 Humility and resilience as key traits in crypto development11:49 The importance of layer one robustness and security14:02 The ongoing war in cybersecurity and the role of white hat hackers16:01 Insights into the Liquid hack and potential return of stolen BTC17:55 The accelerating pace of AI development and its market implications20:11 The significance of AI IPOs and groundbreaking models21:51 Jensen Huang's statements and the arrival of AGI24:09 The connection between AI, government spending, and Bitcoin25:58 Macroeconomic trends: bond yields, inflation, and growth27:49 The AI trade as a macroeconomic and investment theme29:57 Bitcoin's technical levels and market outlook31:55 The potential end of the four-year cycle in Bitcoin33:47 Bitcoin as a non-management asset and its resilience35:46 The importance of network effects and innovation in Bitcoin37:57 Macro policy, interest rates, and their impact on markets39:59 Liquidity, debt, and the role of government in the economy41:55 The evolving landscape of macroeconomic risks and opportunities43:54 The importance of probabilistic thinking in market analysis46:01 The role of Bitcoin and gold as safe assets in uncertain times47:58 Short-term market levels and key technical indicators50:12 The significance of the 80K level and market validation51:58 Market patterns, cycles, and the concept of bear market uptrends53:52 Long-term outlook for Bitcoin and macro trends55:46 Final thoughts on macro, Bitcoin, and future developmentsDisclaimerThe publications on this website and in these videos, including any references and links, are provided for information purposes only and do not constitute investment advice, investment analysis, or an offer or recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments. They do not replace investment or other professional advice.
- 1 weeks ago28 min
Bitcoin Market Update: Why Below $60K May Be Gone for Good
MEMBERSHIPSBecome a premium member on YouTube and Spotify for early access and bonus content. Join now!DISCUSSION 💬Join the discussion on Telegram: https://t.me/+OgDv1Djbvs80M2FkEPISODEIs the Bitcoin bear market already over? In this market update, we break down the signals that matter most right now: Bitcoin reclaiming key technical levels, short-term holders taking profits, institutional demand returning, improving sentiment, and the macro backdrop that could decide the next major move. We also look at why $60K may already be behind us, what still needs to happen before a new bull market is confirmed, and whether MSTR’s weakness against BTC is actually a warning sign.SUPPORT⚡️LNMS on Lightning: lnms@ln.mtpelerin.com₿ BTC-Address: bc1qmk7gfdnrdegnmnrtnacj6rslan0y6v29kdlf9pStripe: https://buy.stripe.com/9B600k5Tscv33Ue4zRdby00Twint: https://go.twint.ch/1/e/tw?tw=acq.Z7L1opJwS72nbGgEMY4w3ILkf67JAEyEFmXrtoKoUbONWSsjLDDQIhNx5ReanPy7.LINKS 📰 LNMS Newsletter: https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack....🎧 LNMS on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/4apksnyn🎧 LNMS on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/ttha8kku🎧 LNMS on Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/4k96c7tw🎧 LNMS on Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/5dsbbj5p🌐 LNMS Website: https://www.lessnoise-moresignal.com/📖 Bitcoin Book: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013🎧 LNMS on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4jfhr4znSOCIALSFollow on X👉 https://x.com/pahuegFollow on Nostr 👉 https://primal.net/pascalFollow on LinkedIn 👉 / pascal-huegli CHAPTERS00:00 Introduction and Bitcoin Liquid Network Update00:29 Upcoming Video with Johan Bergmann on Bitcoin Layer01:19 Bitcoin Market Overview and Macro Context02:11 Valuation Approaches for Bitcoin02:39 Macro Factors: Oil Prices and Central Bank Policies03:08 Impact of Oil Prices on Inflation and Monetary Policy04:03 Long End Yields and Market Expectations05:28 Liquidity and Market Volatility Indicators07:22 Liquidity Model Insights and Market Conditions08:18 Growth, Inflation, and Risk Asset Outlook09:12 Potential Market Scenarios Based on Growth and Oil10:08 Correlation Between Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin11:06 Technical Support and Resistance Levels for Bitcoin12:28 Bitcoin's Moving Averages and Historical Patterns14:16 On-Chain Analysis: Investor Behavior and Profit-Taking17:36 Sentiment Indicators and Market Psychology20:21 Market Narrative and Sentiment Shifts22:23 Tracking BTC inflows into leveraged products24:12 Performance comparison: MSTR vs BTC26:33 Market outlook and investment strategiesDisclaimerThe publications on this website and in these videos, including any references and links, are provided for information purposes only and do not constitute investment advice, investment analysis, or an offer or recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments. They do not replace investment or other professional advice. The information reflects the state of knowledge at the time of preparation and may be changed at any time without notice. The content is intended for natural people only. No liability is accepted for the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided, its sources, or for any resulting losses or damages. Liability for slight negligence is excluded. Marketing communication. Not investment advice. Investing involves risk. Transactions in Bitcoin may result in the total loss of the capital invested.
- 2 weeks ago41 min
September Hike? Trump, Bessent and Warsh Have a Bigger Plan
MEMBERSHIPSBecome a premium member on YouTube and Spotify for early access and bonus content. Join now!DISCUSSION 💬Join the discussion on Telegram: https://t.me/+OgDv1Djbvs80M2FkEPISODEIn this episode, Pascal Hügli discusses the current macroeconomic landscape, including the Fed's rate hike prospects, the implications of rising long-term yields, and the ongoing debasement trade involving gold and Bitcoin. He connects these themes to the US's grand plan regarding China and the AI investment cycle, providing a comprehensive view of the financial regime shift.SUPPORT⚡️LNMS on Lightning: lnms@ln.mtpelerin.com₿ BTC-Address: bc1qmk7gfdnrdegnmnrtnacj6rslan0y6v29kdlf9pStripe: https://buy.stripe.com/9B600k5Tscv33Ue4zRdby00Twint: https://go.twint.ch/1/e/tw?tw=acq.Z7L1opJwS72nbGgEMY4w3ILkf67JAEyEFmXrtoKoUbONWSsjLDDQIhNx5ReanPy7.LINKS 📰 LNMS Newsletter: https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack.com/🎧 LNMS on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/4apksnyn🎧 LNMS on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/ttha8kku🎧 LNMS on Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/4k96c7tw🎧 LNMS on Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/5dsbbj5p🌐 LNMS Website: https://www.lessnoise-moresignal.com/📖 Bitcoin Book: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013🎧 LNMS on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4jfhr4znSOCIALSFollow on X👉 https://x.com/pahuegFollow on Nostr 👉 https://primal.net/pascalFollow on LinkedIn 👉 / pascal-huegli CHAPTERS00:00 Welcome, weekend plans, and AI updates02:32 Will the Fed hike rates in September?03:28 Warsh’s hawkish rhetoric and the Taylor Rule05:17 Oil prices and renewed inflation concerns07:10 Christopher Waller’s economic outlook08:33 What core PCE could mean for the Fed09:32 Key September inflation data to watch10:31 Why rising long-term yields matter11:29 US broader grand macro strategy12:24 Weakening the dollar to counter China14:42 Why are long-term yields rising?16:31 Term premiums, Treasury issuance, and debt concerns19:21 The AI investment cycle and economic growth21:29 The main drivers behind higher yields22:24 Are rising yields a threat to equities?24:13 Gold, Bitcoin, and the debasement trade25:12 Why Bitcoin may be emerging from its bear market26:10 Is the Bitcoin bull market beginning?27:33 Is debasement a trade or a new regime?28:03 Currency debasement throughout history29:49 Debt, AI spending, and the modern debasement cycle32:10 Why liquidity creation is becoming essential33:57 Why Bitcoin may be the biggest AI trade35:19 Bessent’s role in managing liquidity36:17 Treasury buybacks, the TGA, and short-term debt issuance37:45 FX stability, the carry trade, and additional liquidity38:10 How inflation helped reduce the debt burden historically39:32 Forward guidance moves from the Fed to the Treasury40:30 Final takeaways and what to watch nextDisclaimerThe publications on this website and in these videos, including any references and links, are provided for information purposes only and do not constitute investment advice, investment analysis, or an offer or recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments. They do not replace investment or other professional advice. The information reflects the state of knowledge at the time of preparation and may be changed at any time without notice. The content is intended for natural people only. No liability is accepted for the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided, its sources, or for any resulting losses or damages. Liability for slight negligence is excluded. Marketing communication. Not investment advice. Investing involves risk. Transactions in Bitcoin may result in the total loss of the capital invested.
- 3 weeks ago14 min
I Cut My Team From 20 to 3. Productivity Went Up 20x
FULL EPISODEhttps://youtu.be/7XXrSvD0bY8DISCUSSION 💬Join the discussion on Telegram: https://t.me/+OgDv1Djbvs80M2FkCLIP Xiaoyin believes the important AI divide will not be human versus machine. It will be people who can command large fleets of AI agents versus people who cannot. Her own company now has three humans managing hundreds of agents, with productivity she says increased 20x. In this world, ambition, creativity and agency become more valuable while traditional corporate work becomes increasingly vulnerable. SUPPORT⚡️LNMS on Lightning: lnms@ln.mtpelerin.com ₿ BTC-Address: bc1qmk7gfdnrdegnmnrtnacj6rslan0y6v29kdlf9p💵https://donate.stripe.com/9B600k5Tscv...Twint: https://go.twint.ch/1/e/tw?tw=acq.Z7L…LINKS 📰 LNMS Newsletter: https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack....🎧 LNMS on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4jfhr4zn🎧 LNMS on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/4apksnyn🎧 LNMS on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/ttha8kku🎧 LNMS on Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/4k96c7tw🎧 LNMS on Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/5dsbbj5p🌐 LNMS Website: https://www.lessnoise-moresignal.com/📖 Bitcoin Book: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013SOCIALS Follow on X👉 https://x.com/pahuegFollow on Nostr 👉 https://primal.net/pascalFollow on LinkedIn 👉 / pascal-huegli
- 3 weeks ago1h 20m
The Market Is Misreading Trump’s Financial Strategy
MEMBERSHIPSBecome a premium member on YouTube and Spotify for early access and bonus content. Join now!DISCUSSION 💬Join the discussion on Telegram: https://t.me/+OgDv1Djbvs80M2FkEPISODEEPISODEIn this episode, Izabella Kaminska shares her insights on global finance, US Treasury buybacks, stablecoins, and the evolving geopolitical landscape. Discover how systemic shifts and technological innovations are shaping the future of money and statecraft.Follow Izabella Kaminska 👉 https://x.com/izakaminskaSUPPORT⚡️LNMS on Lightning: lnms@ln.mtpelerin.com₿ BTC-Address: bc1qmk7gfdnrdegnmnrtnacj6rslan0y6v29kdlf9p💵https://buy.stripe.com/9B600k5Tscv33Ue4zRdby00Twint: https://go.twint.ch/1/e/tw?tw=acq.Z7L1opJwS72nbGgEMY4w3ILkf67JAEyEFmXrtoKoUbONWSsjLDDQIhNx5ReanPy7.LINKS 📰 LNMS Newsletter: https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack.com/🎧 LNMS on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/4apksnyn🎧 LNMS on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/ttha8kku🎧 LNMS on Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/4k96c7tw🎧 LNMS on Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/5dsbbj5p🌐 LNMS Website: https://www.lessnoise-moresignal.com/📖 Bitcoin Book: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013🎧 LNMS on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4jfhr4znSOCIALSFollow on X👉 https://x.com/pahuegFollow on Nostr 👉 https://primal.net/pascalFollow on LinkedIn 👉 https://www.linkedin.com/in/pascal-huegli/CHAPTERS00:00 Intro02:18 Introduction to Isabel Kaminska and her expertise02:40 Her background in finance journalism and new ventures05:44 Her analysis of systemic shifts in finance and geopolitics09:03 US Treasury buybacks and market narratives12:45 Market structure and the long end of the curve15:59 The strategic move of buybacks and yield curve control18:05 Narratives around US strength and China’s role21:23 US-China geopolitical dynamics and market implications24:50 China's dual economy and technological race27:51 The impact of global value chains and China's evolution33:40 The future of AI, open source models, and sovereignty36:31 Cultural, political, and economic fragmentation43:49 The role of stablecoins in global finance50:34 US regulation, stablecoins, and the banking system01:00:38 Foreign holdings of US Treasuries and geopolitical risks01:09:26 The potential of stablecoins to reshape fiscal sovereignty01:14:23 Closing thoughts and future outlooksDisclaimerThe publications on this website and in these videos, including any references and links, are provided for information purposes only and do not constitute investment advice, investment analysis, or an offer or recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments. They do not replace investment or other professional advice. The information reflects the state of knowledge at the time of preparation and may be changed at any time without notice. The content is intended for natural people only. No liability is accepted for the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided, its sources, or for any resulting losses or damages. Liability for slight negligence is excluded. Marketing communication. Not investment advice. Investing involves risk. Transactions in Bitcoin may result in the total loss of the capital invested.
- 4 weeks ago12 min
The AI Price War OpenAI Should Fear
FULL EPISODEhttps://youtu.be/7XXrSvD0bY8DISCUSSION 💬Join the discussion on Telegram: https://t.me/+OgDv1Djbvs80M2FkCLIPChinese AI models used to have one advantage: price. Now Xiaoyin says they are getting remarkably close to the best US models while remaining dramatically cheaper. She explains why China has more frontier labs, comparable talent and data, lower costs, and a completely different attitude toward margins. The result could put serious pressure on the economics of companies like OpenAI and Anthropic.SUPPORT⚡️LNMS on Lightning: lnms@ln.mtpelerin.com ₿ BTC-Address: bc1qmk7gfdnrdegnmnrtnacj6rslan0y6v29kdlf9p💵https://donate.stripe.com/9B600k5Tscv...Twint: https://go.twint.ch/1/e/tw?tw=acq.Z7L…LINKS 📰 LNMS Newsletter: https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack....🎧 LNMS on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4jfhr4zn🎧 LNMS on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/4apksnyn🎧 LNMS on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/ttha8kku🎧 LNMS on Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/4k96c7tw🎧 LNMS on Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/5dsbbj5p🌐 LNMS Website: https://www.lessnoise-moresignal.com/📖 Bitcoin Book: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013SOCIALS Follow on X👉 https://x.com/pahuegFollow on Nostr 👉 https://primal.net/pascalFollow on LinkedIn 👉 / pascal-huegli
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About Less Noise, More Signal
Welcome to Less Noise, More Signal. In a world saturated with news, hype, and endless chatter, finding clarity can seem like searching for a needle in a haystack. I’ve taken on this challenge and made it my mission to cut through the noise by amplifying the signal. Who am I? I’m Pascal Hügli. With a background in political philosophy, a career in investment management, and a deep expertise in Bitcoin and digital assets, I’m here to explore the ideas and connections that others do not bother to see. It’s not just about finding the right answers; it’s about asking the right questions. In each episode, I interview the most insightful thinkers in their respective fields. Every guest contributes a vital piece to the puzzle, helping us form a clearer picture of the forces shaping our world of macro, finance, and money. Listen in as my guests and I tilt the balance from noise to signal, one podcast episode at a time.
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