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On The Market: Daily Summaries Delivered
by BiggerPockets
Join Dave Meyer, James Dainard, Kathy Fettke and Henry Washington for analysis of the news and economics driving today’s real estate market.
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The most recent episodes — sign up to get AI-powered summaries of each one.
- Yesterday37 min
Fannie Mae Sharply Raises 2027 Mortgage Rate Forecast
Is there any relief coming next year for mortgage rates? According to Fannie Mae’s new 2027 mortgage rate prediction…it’s not looking too good. Previous mortgage rate forecasts predicted 6.7% rates throughout 2027. But with inflation running rampant again, a low-rate future looks less and less likely. It’s already getting cold, and the housing market is starting to freeze in more ways than one. The latest inflation numbers were an unpleasant surprise—hotter-than-expected CPI (Consumer Price Index) and producer prices rising beyond expectations. The result? Higher mortgage rates, arguably locked in for longer. And the Fed can’t fix this one. Buyers are dropping off in major markets, but sellers aren’t seeing it clearly. With inventory down, some sellers are getting hopeful that there are fewer houses to choose from…but not when pending sales are down double digits. Finally, we’ll touch on the housing market crash that already happened, and how everyone missed it. In This Episode We Cover Newest inflation numbers and whether they will force something to “break” Fannie Mae’s updated mortgage rate forecast (any hope for lower rates?) Sellers are getting the wrong signals: Why declining inventory may not be a good thing for them The housing market collapse that already happened (and almost nobody noticed) Go give someone a big tip this week; it’s getting hard out there for average Americans! And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Find Investor-Friendly Lenders Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Henry's BiggerPockets Profile James' BiggerPockets Profile Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile Get Tickets to the BiggerPockets “Live From Phoenix” Bootcamp! Reuters: US producer prices post largest gain in 4-1/2 years; expensive gasoline boosts retail sales Scotsman Guide: Fannie Mae just tore up its 2027 mortgage forecast HousingWire: Why falling housing inventory is sending sellers the wrong signal eXp Realty: AGNT CEO Leo Pareja Says the Housing Market Collapse “Already Happened” Grab Dave’s Book, Real Estate by the Numbers Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-474. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
- 1 weeks ago34 min
Pending Sales Just Fell Below 2008 Levels
Pending home sales just hit their lowest level on record since the NAR started tracking them in 2001—and they fell in all 50 of the country's biggest metros. Winter hasn’t even begun yet, and we’re already seeing the massive effects of high mortgage rates, low affordability, and overall economic pessimism. And with inventory rising, it raises the question: how do we avoid housing-crash territory? I made four key predictions a few months ago: transaction volume would fall, new listings would drop, inventory would rise, and home prices would flip negative (nominally). The dominoes are lined up, and the first three have already fallen—so what happens to home prices? Those betting on a housing crash are missing one key variable, and it’s the one thing that could keep us out of crash-style price cuts. So I’m going through each data point to give you a clear look at why pending sales just hit the lowest level since record-keeping began, why inventory is rising while seller numbers aren't, and why home prices will begin to fall, but not to the levels you think. In This Episode We Cover What’s causing the dramatic lack of demand in the housing market (and why it may not get better) Will our rising inventory eventually lead to a price crash? Why sellers aren’t going to be forced to sell their homes at rock-bottom prices The two factors that could cause mortgage rates to fall (or rise even more) Why I’m still analyzing deals even as price drops don’t look like they’re stopping And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area Dave's BiggerPockets Profile On the Market 372 - New Recession Indicator Shows Americans Worse Off Than We Thought NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 7.3% in September Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-473. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
- 1 weeks ago42 min
J Scott: The House of Cards Is Going to Fall
This economy is…confusing. Inflation is still high, AI is disrupting the labor market, and consumer sentiment is nearing a 70-year floor. Meanwhile, the stock market keeps climbing, and unemployment remains around historic lows. So, what’s really happening? Are we in the clear, or is something big about to break? J Scott is back to share his thoughts on the state of the economy and the warning signs investors can’t afford to ignore. The Fed seems to have lost much of its influence over interest rates, and bond investors aren’t buying the rhetoric that this bout of inflation is short-term. In the housing market, supply and demand have fallen, bringing transactions to a standstill—all while pre-foreclosures are slowly rising. And that’s just the beginning. Everyone’s got one eye on AI, the wild card that could send everything spiraling. We’re unpacking the three factors that will cause the next recession, what the next six months could look like, and how investors can prepare their real estate portfolios for what comes next. In This Episode We Cover J Scott’s short- and long-term economic forecast The three factors that will cause the next global recession Why even the “strong” stock market and job market feel unstable Where interest rates could be headed in the coming months Why more distress is on the table for residential real estate How real estate investors can best prepare for an economic downturn And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Find Investor-Friendly Lenders On the Market 432 – J Scott: We Have 1-2 Months Before the Economy Begins to Break J Scott's BiggerPockets Profile Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Real Estate by the Numbers Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-472. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
- 2 weeks ago37 min
If You’re Making More Money Than Ever But Still Feel Broke, Hear This
The affordability crisis isn’t improving. Gas is above $4 per gallon, inflation just hit 3.7%, and paychecks aren’t keeping pace. This is a tough spot for the American economy, but why does it feel like we’re getting hit on all sides of the affordability spectrum? Today, I’m breaking down the American household’s affordability crisis, and whether it’s a modern spending problem or something much, much deeper. We’re going into each lever that’s curbing affordability in the United States: wages, prices, savings rates, which generations are being hit hardest (not much of a surprise), overconsumption, and subscriptions that used to be one-time charges. I’ll also track the progress from the past three decades (2019, 2009, and 1999) to see where we went so wrong. If you make more money than ever but are still shocked by how little you can save or how much necessities cost, you’re not alone. We’re breaking down why Americans feel so squeezed, which prices are hitting hardest, and why a pay raise (unless it’s colossal) may not be enough to solve this. In This Episode We Cover The affordability crisis broken down and why rising wages aren’t solving the problem The biggest price jumps on products and services that are outpacing wages America’s biggest failure when it comes to economically setting up the next generation Why even the higher-income earners still feel broke in 2026’s economy Generations that are hit the hardest by a myriad of expenses The overconsumption and subscription traps that are keeping Americans spending What real estate investors must do to prepare now for the affordability crisis among renters And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Property Manager Finder Dave's BiggerPockets Profile On the Market 469 - A Housing Market “Recovery” Is Further Away Than We Thought Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-471. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
- 2 weeks ago39 min
The “2nd Wave” of the Commercial Real Estate Crash Is Close w/Brian Burke
Commercial real estate prices have fallen 20%-50% from their peaks just a few years ago—but the slide may not be over yet. A “second wave” of the commercial real estate crash is on the horizon now that interest rates are back around 7.5%, and struggling multifamily, office, and commercial investors who thought a long-term refinance would save them are now in a stickier spot. So…how much lower can commercial real estate prices go? He was right about past crashes, so we asked Brian Burke to join us again on the show for his take. Brian, quite famously by now, sold most of his multifamily portfolio at the peak of the post-COVID boom, took profits, and sat on the beach for a few years while strategizing when (and how) to get back into the market. But even Brian isn’t convinced this is the bottom for the multifamily market—rent concessions are plentiful, lease trade-outs are negative (new renters are paying less than previous renters), and cap rates haven’t expanded enough. But the time to strike could be coming soon. Today, Brian shares the game plan he uses to gauge when to get back into a bottoming-out market, and what buyers must do to get a great deal, great funding, and a great exit. In This Episode We Cover Why the commercial real estate crash may not be over yet (a “second wave” is coming) Incoming cap rate expansion and why brokers are still pushing almost illogical multiples The “four-way traffic collision” that caused the commercial real estate value drop Why trying to time the bottom will cost you, but getting in a little bit late will not What a “good” multifamily deal looks like to Brian in today’s market And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Property Manager Finder On The Market 440 - Commercial Real Estate Is Quietly Setting Up for a Decade-Long Bull Run Brian's BiggerPockets Profile Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Praxis Capital Grab Brian’s Book, The Hands-Off Investor Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-470. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
- 3 weeks ago37 min
A Housing Market “Recovery” Is Further Away Than We Thought
The housing market isn’t going back to “normal” anytime soon. In fact, it could take significantly longer than many of us thought. Rates are around 7.5%, median home prices hover near $400,000, but your salary is not keeping pace. Something needs to change: is it rates, prices, incomes, or a combination of all three? I did the math and have an answer for how long it will actually take for the housing market to recover. So first, what does a "normal" housing market actually mean? We’re going to look at two data sets: 1989-2026 and 2019 levels, the last year before pandemic-fueled inflation started to boil the housing market. Back in 2019, Americans spent only around 15% of their income on housing payments; today, it’s nearly 25%. So, how do we return to a market where homes are actually affordable? I’ll walk through each scenario: wages rising significantly, mortgage rates falling, and home prices crashing, and then paint a picture of what happens if all of them (reasonably) move in the right direction. If someone is convincing you the market is about to get much cheaper, or much more affordable, or that you should just wait until it’s easier to buy…good luck. In This Episode We Cover Exactly what needs to happen for housing affordability to return to “normal” levels The three “levers” that control housing affordability, and which are likely to move Why it could take years (or even decades) to get back to the average affordability level Are we stuck in a new era of mega-expensive housing payments? Why waiting to buy a home (or your next rental) could be a very long bet And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Find Investor-Friendly Lenders On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates Dave's BiggerPockets Profile NAR Housing Affordability Index Grab the Book, Real Estate by the Numbers Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-469. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
- 3 weeks ago25 min
Nearly Half of Buyers Get Concessions as Fed Warns Prices Must Drop
A Fed official says what we’re all thinking: home prices must drop—and sellers seem to have gotten the message. Per a recent Redfin report, 44.7% of home sales included seller concessions such as price cuts, rate buydowns, covering closing costs, or even renovations, repairs, and expensive layout changes. So, if you’re a buyer, how do you get the most from your seller on the next deal? We’re back with this week’s headlines! We’ve brought good news for buyers, scary news for sellers, and strange-smelling stories about multifamily investors. Seller desperation is peaking as concessions offer buyers the biggest opportunity in six years. Even the Fed is taking note, as one official warns about home affordability and why prices need to drop to make progress. Now, what the heck is that black stuff behind the fridge? That’s the question multifamily investors are asking themselves as mold-based litigation ramps up and renters prepare to get paydays thanks to some severe spores. If you own a home in the Northwest, the South, or anywhere else that gets humid, here is what you should do to avoid a pricey repair. In This Episode We Cover The rise in seller concessions and how to unlock price cuts, lower mortgage rates, or covered closing costs The $70K concession James is making to literally rearrange a floor plan to sell a house A Fed official’s warning on home prices and why they may still be too high The deals popping up and sitting on the market that could be solid rentals A major mold problem: Why you should check your rental ASAP (before a lawyer gets involved) And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area Redfin: Nearly Half of Homebuyers Get Concessions From Sellers as Most Markets Tip in Buyers’ Favor Realtor: Fed Official Sounds Warning on Housing as Affordability Hits 21-Year Low Bisnow: Mold Is Growing Into Major Problem For Apartment Owners Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Henry's BiggerPockets Profile James' BiggerPockets Profile Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile Grab The Book on Negotiating Real Estate Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-468. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
- 4 weeks ago36 min
The American Economy Enters Its “Lost Decade”
America could enter what nobody wants—a “lost decade.” No huge gains, no massive price drops, just a slow, stagnating market where inflation eats away at the returns we once thought were normal. Stocks are already massively overpriced according to the CAPE Ratio and the Buffett Indicator, real estate is unaffordable and already seeing real price declines, and commercial has fallen off the proverbial cliff. Can we go up from here? The argument isn’t looking optimistic. So, if it’s about to be a whole lot harder to make a return on real estate, in the stock market, or anything else worth buying, what should you do? Today, Dave breaks down America’s “lost decade” and what to do to protect your wealth from inflation erosion that looks more likely by the day. There are ways to maintain strong real estate returns along the way, but most investors take the easy route and fail to profit because of it. You can escape this “lost decade,” but only if you’re prepared for it. In This Episode We Cover America’s “lost decade” that could upend returns for real estate, stocks, and more The one asset class that has potential upside in the coming years Why “not investing” is not a strategy that will save you from wealth erosion Why we could go years without home price appreciation or solid stock gains The two indicators flashing right now that are signaling an overpriced market And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area Dave's BiggerPockets Profile On the Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-467. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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