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The Spillover: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Council on Foreign Relations
How do critical international developments shape economic and financial markets worldwide? Each week, The Spillover examines the ripple effects of global events across policy, geopolitics, economics, finance, and technology. This podcast helps you better understand what’s happening, and why it matters to businesses, global markets, and the world.
Latest Episodes
The most recent episodes — sign up to get AI-powered summaries of each one.
- 6 days ago47 min
Nvidia Bets Big on Hugging Face + Sebastian Sashimi + AI-Powered Toothbrushes
This week, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack Nvidia’s deal to purchase Hugging Face, the leading platform for open-weight AI models. The acquisition, they argue, highlights a battle between two visions of how the AI industry will develop, as well as concerns about safety and oligopoly. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Mentioned on the Episode: Aditya Soni, Anhata Rooprai, and Harshita Mary Varghese, “Nvidia Bets $13 Billion on Open AI Models With Hugging Face Deal,” Reuters Sebastian Mallaby and Sebastian Elbaum, “The AI Trilemma,” Foreign Affairs Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
- 1 weeks ago52 min
Can the U.S. ‘Grow’ Its Way Out of Debt? + Taxing Wealth in the Age of AI
This week, host Rebecca Patterson speaks with Natasha Sarin, law professor and cofounder of the Yale Budget Lab, to unpack Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s claim that the United States can grow its way out of record debt, and whether AI can deliver the growth, jobs, and tax revenue needed to make that happen. Host: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Natasha Sarin, Professor of Law and Cofounder, The Yale Budget Lab Mentioned on the Episode: Natasha Sarin, “No Wonder Everyone’s Rallying Around This Terrible Idea,” New York Times “Scott Bessent Says US Can ‘Grow Our Way Out’ of $40 Trillion Debt—Economist Says ‘Not Feasible’,” TradingView “The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036,” Congressional Budget Office Rebecca Patterson, “What the Treasury’s Buyback Surprise Says About the Bond Market,” CFR.org Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
- 2 weeks ago48 min
The U.S. Buys a Majority Stake in a Venezuelan Oil Company + Why Efficiency Is the Real Path to Energy Security
Host: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, Philip D. Reed Senior Fellow and Director of the Energy Security and Climate Change Program, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Mentioned on the Episode: Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “Why Nuclear Energy Is Making a Global Comeback,” CFR.org Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “Crude Calculations: Why the Iran War Hasn’t Yet Caused an Oil Shock,” CFR.org Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “Geothermal’s Time Has Finally Come,” The Economist Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “Americans’ Electricity Bills Are Up. Don’t Blame AI,” The Economist Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
- 3 weeks ago1h 5m
Could the AI Debt Problem Create the Next Financial Crisis?
The financing behind the AI boom has grown so large that treasury bond yields are approaching levels not seen since the leadup to the 2008 financial crisis. But is the risk to the financial market overblown? This week, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, to discuss the threat AI debt poses to the U.S. bond market. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo Mentioned on the Episode: Torsten Slok, “A Slower AI Payoff Would Be Everyone's Problem,” Apollo Torsten Slok, “Monitoring the AI Trade: How Growing Debt Issuance Is Reshaping the Landscape,” Apollo Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
- Aug 18, 202644 min
The Hosts Pick a Global AI Winner + The Advanced Economy Deployment Problem + The Question Even the Experts Can't Answer
Artificial intelligence has become the biggest variable in the U.S. economy, but is the country really positioned to win the global race for economic dominance in AI? This week, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby draw on Patterson's new chapter for the book Geopolitics of AI to guess at an eventual winner. The pair weighs the inputs of talent, capital, energy, and public support, and question popular assumptions about inevitable American success. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Mentioned on the Episode: Geopolitics of AI, Johns Hopkins University Press Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
- Aug 12, 202647 min
How China Is Quietly Winning the Iran War Energy Crisis
Five months of war in Iran have completely reshaped energy markets. This week, the Baker Institute’s Kristian Coates Ulrichsen joins Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby to examine how conflict in the Strait of Hormuz exposed the fragility of the world's maritime chokepoints, and revealed China as the quiet winner of the crisis. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Fellow for the Middle East and codirector of the Middle East Energy Roundtable, Baker Institute Mentioned on the Episode: Kristian Coates Ulrichsen and Jim Krane, “Maritime Chokepoints and Risks to Global Shipping and Energy Security,” Baker Institute “China ‘Blockade Simulation’ Exposes $5 Trillion Global Danger,” Bloomberg “Crossroads of Commerce: How the Taiwan Strait Propels the Global Economy,” CSIS Spencer Kimball, “Oil in US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls Below 300 Million Barrels, Lowest Since 1983,” MSN “China Is Now the World’s Great Oil Power,” The Economist “The Middle East and Global Energy Markets,” IEA Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
- Aug 5, 20261h 7m
Spillover Summer Reading: The Best Books on Forecasting, Silicon Valley, and the Future
In this episode of The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby swap summer reading recommendations, including fiction and nonfiction picks covering American thinkers’ predictions for the twentieth century, an Irish murder mystery, and a Stanford student’s exposé on Silicon Valley venture capital and start-up culture. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Mentioned on the Episode: Dave Walter, Today Then Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart, The Unanchored Central Banker Tana French, The Keeper Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, Abundance Theo Baker, How to Rule the World Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
- Jul 28, 20261h 2m
Jordan Schneider Thinks the Real AI Race Is About Compute, Not Models
In this episode of The Spillover, host Sebastian Mallaby sits down with Jordan Schneider, founder and editor-in-chief of the ChinaTalk podcast and newsletter, to discuss AI progress and security, as well as the U.S.-China AI rivalry. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Jordan Schneider, Founder and Editor in Chief, ChinaTalk Mentioned on the Episode: Jordan Schneider, “ChinaTalk” podcast and newsletter “DeepSeek: The Quiet Giant Leading China’s AI Race,” translation of Liang Wenfeng’s interview with Waves Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
About The Spillover
How do critical international developments shape economic and financial markets worldwide? Each week, The Spillover examines the ripple effects of global events across policy, geopolitics, economics, finance, and technology. This podcast helps you better understand what’s happening, and why it matters to businesses, global markets, and the world.
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