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- 3 days ago1h 30m
The Covered Call ETF Gap | Zed Francis and Devin Anderson
Most investors think they understand what they own — Devin Anderson and Zed Francis of Convexitas are here to prove they don't, and to show what the next generation of derivative investing actually looks like.Pierre Daillie and Mike Philbrick welcome Devin Anderson and Zed Francis, Co-Founders of Convexitas, for a masterclass in derivative investing that challenges everything advisors and investors think they know about covered calls, buffered ETFs, and options-based income strategies. Drawing on deep institutional backgrounds — Devin from two decades at Deutsche Bank's equity derivatives structuring desk, and Zed from UBS credit trading, distressed hedge funds, and Legal & General — the two founders lay bare the hidden complexity lurking inside "simple" yield products that dominate today's wealth management landscape.The conversation pulls no punches: the hockey-stick diagrams used to explain covered call ETFs at point-of-sale actively mask real-time risk exposures that can shift dramatically intraday. A product sold as "half the risk of equities" can quietly become nearly full equity exposure within hours of a 1% market move — and most advisors and clients have no idea. Devin and Zed argue this isn't a reason to abandon these products, but a powerful case for active, continuous derivative management that delivers what the product actually promised.The founders introduce Convexitas's philosophy: that the options market is structurally mispriced, and that most yield-seeking investors are sitting on the wrong side of that mispricing. They walk through the SMA-based approach — designed to generate accessible liquidity precisely when markets crash, enabling advisors to rebalance into distressed assets rather than being frozen by tax friction, behavioral paralysis, or trapped capital in fund wrappers. From the mechanics of short volatility to the case for unfunded overlays, return stacking, and Warren Buffett's alpha decoded through Fama-French factors, this episode is essential listening for any advisor navigating the derivative income revolution.Chapters00:00 — Introduction: The income wave reshaping wealth management04:52 — Meet Devin Anderson & Zed Francis: Career arcs and the founding of Convexitas12:16 — What investors actually own: The hidden complexity inside covered call ETFs16:18 — Real-time risk exposure: How moneyness shifts dramatically intraday19:17 — The silent danger: Stacking short volatility across multiple products28:00 — Structural mispricing in the options market: Why sellers face a systemic disadvantage38:00 — Investment products vs. trading instruments: A critical distinction for advisors43:08 — The income stack: Gaining Gold and Bitcoin exposure with capital efficiency50:43 — First-gen vs. next-gen: From buffered ETFs to actively managed derivative overlays57:08 — Tax efficiency, rebalancing, and the SMA advantage01:18:06 — Why accessible capital is the biggest benefit of risk mitigation — not mark-to-market01:23:53 — Buying when there's blood in the streets: Liquidity, structure, and Warren Buffett's alpha01:26:37 — Final outlook: Inflation, financialization, and the binary tail risks ahead #CoveredCallETF #BufferedETF #DerivativeInvesting #OptionsTrading #WealthManagement #VolatilityHarvesting #ReturnStacking #TailRiskHedge #FinancialAdvisors #IncomeInvesting #PortfolioConstruction #AlternativeInvestments #RiskManagement #TaxEfficientInvesting #SMAInvesting #RaiseYourAverage #Convexitas #InvestmentStrategy #OptionsEducation #AdvisorAlpha Copyright © AdvisorAnalyst
- 1 weeks ago1h 8m
Dave Nadig: The ETF Bubble Nobody is Talking About
The ETF industry has never been more powerful — or more crowded. Dave Nadig, President & Director of Research at ETF.com, joins Pierre Daillie and Mike Philbrick for a no-holds-barred conversation on the structural risks building beneath the surface of the world's most successful financial innovation. From a potential flood of mutual fund conversions to single-stock leverage ETFs, prediction market shenanigans, private credit illiquidity traps, tokenization timelines, AI's impact on the investment industry, and the quiet erosion of the ETF's greatest strength — simplicity — this is the ETF conversation the industry isn't having.⏱ Chapters00:00 — Introduction: Dave Nadig, President & Director of Research, ETF.com 00:46 — The Mutual Fund-to-ETF Conversion Flood: 5,000 Funds in the Pipeline 03:12 — The Plumbing Stress Test: Market Makers, Lead Market Makers & Capacity Limits 05:40 — Too Many Tickers: When Choice Becomes Paralysis 07:51 — The Case FOR Mutual Funds: Where the Structure Still Wins 10:34 — Private Credit ETFs: Retail Bag-Holding at the End of the Cycle? 13:06 — Private Equity ETFs, SpaceX Shenanigans & Liquidity Illusions 18:02 — ETF Proliferation: More Tickers Than Stocks 19:50 — The K-Shaped ETF Innovation Curve: Institutional Genius vs. Levered Junk 22:26 — Prediction Markets, Kalshi & Single-Counterparty Risk 25:04 — AI in Investment Management: Hype vs. Genuine Edge 27:18 — Tokenization: When Does It Actually Matter for Retail? 29:38 — Atomic Settlement, Blockchain, and the DTCC's Big Project 33:27 — Crypto, Prediction Markets & Where the Money Is Really Going 36:11 — 24/7 Equity Markets: Opportunity or Chaos? 45:25 — The Kitchen Drawer Metaphor: Good Tools vs. Junk Drawer ETFs 48:00 — Covered Call ETFs & the Yield Illusion: Total Return Is the Litmus Test 50:40 — How to Spot Extractive Products vs. Genuine Innovation 54:52 — Why Dave Came Back to ETF.com — and Why He Won't Stay in a Box 01:00:02 — ETF.com 3.0: Content, Pop-Up Events & the ETF Beach House 01:03:02 — The ETF Industry's Obligation: Keeping It From Going Extractive 01:07:13 — Where to Find Dave Nadig: ETF Zoo Podcast, Excess Returns & More #ETF #ETFinvesting #DaveNadig #ETFcom #RaiseYourAverage #PassiveInvesting #MutualFunds #PrivateCredit #Tokenization #MarketStructure #LeveredETF #CoveredCallETF #PredictionMarkets #InvestingEducation #WealthManagement #FinancialAdvisors #ETFbubble #PortfolioConstruction #AIinvesting #IndexFunds
- 3 weeks ago1h 16m
Paul Kornfeld: Don't Fight the Market—Align With It
When cash is outranking U.S. equities and gold sells off when it's supposed to rally, the advisors holding up aren't reacting faster — they're working from a better framework.In this episode of Raise Your Average, host Pierre Daillie sits down with Paul Kornfeld, Portfolio Manager and Director of Technology Services at SIA Wealth Management, for a wide-ranging conversation on what the firm's rules-based relative strength system is signalling right now — and why those signals have been readable for over a year. Paul walks through SIA's point-and-figure methodology, explaining how millions of pairwise asset comparisons cut through geopolitical noise and behavioural bias to reveal where money is actually flowing. From the Canada-vs.-U.S. rotation that started in April 2024, to the semiconductor-vs.-software divergence that flagged the SaaS repricing before most advisors saw it coming, to a candid story about a Calgary advisor group with zero energy exposure in an oil boom — this episode is a masterclass in process-driven investing. Paul and Pierre also look ahead to the durable themes likely to define the next 12–18 months: real assets over financial assets, international over U.S. broad indices, AI infrastructure over AI software, and the looming wildcard of North American trade renegotiation in Q3.⏱ Chapters00:00 — Introduction: Markets whipsawing, cash beating U.S. equities01:00 — Welcome Paul Kornfeld: Real rotation or relief rally?01:40 — What advisors are asking right now04:36 — SIA's methodology: Relative strength, point-and-figure, opportunity cost07:12 — The goal is alignment, not prediction12:32 — Risk management: The equity action call and the traffic-light model14:01 — Asset class rankings: Cash above U.S. equity, commodities pulling back15:39 — The rotation that started April 2024: International overtakes U.S.17:51 — One takeaway: Reevaluate your U.S. equity weight vs. international21:48 — Gold's anatomy: The longest gold rally Paul has seen29:14 — Tactical sleeves: How advisors can outsource the hard calls31:51 — Canada vs. U.S. sector breakdown: Energy, financials, IT divergence33:44 — Software vs. semiconductors: The SaaS reckoning since ChatGPT40:02 — Data infrastructure: The durable AI theme the market keeps pricing in40:38 — Point-and-figure in action: Salesforce sell signal, CSCO buy signal44:47 — S&P 100 positioning: Semis dominate the top five right now50:06 — Keep politics out of your investing50:56 — TSX60: Energy, mining, chemicals — and the Kinross success story54:13 — The Calgary story: Zero energy exposure in an oil boom56:57 — Buying insurance vs. making a call: Aligning without predicting59:49 — U.S. equities at 65% of global market cap: Is the world overweight?01:03:39 — Durable signals for the next 12–18 months01:05:59 — Real assets, domestic production, AI infrastructure as core theme01:07:16 — Q3 trade negotiations: The biggest wildcard for positioning01:08:47 — Biggest surprise in 12 months: AI disruption, faster than anyone expects01:14:28 — Where to find SIA Wealth and SICharts#RelativeStrength #SIAWealth #SectorRotation #PortfolioManagement #InvestingStrategy #CanadianInvesting #WealthManagement #TacticalAllocation #MomentumInvesting #AIInvesting #GoldBullMarket #EnergyStocks #Semiconductors #SaaSStocks #FinancialAdvisor #InvestmentAdvisor #RaiseYourAverage #MarketRotation #PointAndFigure #BehavioralFinance #EtfInvesting #TSX #SP500 #MacroInvesting #ActiveManagementFind SIA Wealth Management:siawealth.com | siacharts.com
- 3 weeks ago1h 34m
The Party Always Ends: How to Build a Portfolio for the Morning After | Meb Faber
The party always ends — and Meb Faber, one of the most data-driven voices in global investing, says the evidence is now undeniable that the decade-long US equity dominance is giving way to something very different.SUMMARYOn this episode of Raise Your Average, hosts Pierre Daillie and Mike Philbrick sit down with Meb Faber — co-founder and CIO of Cambria Investment Management, prolific researcher, and host of The Meb Faber Show — for a wide-ranging conversation about what investors and financial advisors must rethink as the rules of the game quietly change beneath their feet.With US equity concentration at historic extremes, inflation proving stickier than expected, and geopolitical disorder accelerating structural shifts already underway, Meb makes the case that the era of a US-heavy 60/40 portfolio solving everything is in the rearview mirror. He challenges the deeply ingrained recency bias that has left most North American investors dangerously underweight in international equities and real assets — and explains what the data actually says about where opportunity is emerging.The conversation moves from big-picture regime change into highly practical territory: how to build a portfolio that survives behaviorally, not just mathematically; how to think about concentrated, low-basis positions and the tax traps hiding inside the gains of the last 15 years; and why "tax alpha" may be the most overlooked and underutilized edge in wealth management today. Meb also shares how he's deploying AI in his own practice — including a custom-trained GPT built on his entire body of work — and what advisors should be borrowing from that playbook right now.⏱️ CHAPTERS00:00 — Welcome & banter: tacos, spicy food, and market chaos 08:00 — Meb joins; framing the moment: Venezuela to tariffs to Iran 13:00 — A regime change? Dissecting the end of the 40-year bull run 15:00 — The bull market in diversification: foreign markets doing 30%+ while the S&P stalls 17:00 — What advisors are underweight: ex-US equities and real assets 20:00 — How to explain a generational shift to clients without jargon 24:00 — Global diversification: the evidence from 15 famous portfolios 27:00 — The 20% annual spread problem and why tracking error breaks investors 30:00 — Portfolio vulnerabilities in the cap-weighted US-dominant model 31:00 — Opportunities: global value, small cap, fixed income niches, real assets 35:00 — The "fat" portfolio: three ingredients every investor needs 40:00 — Utilities, dividends, and the tortoise-vs-hare reversal 44:00 — Behavioral investing: why systematic strategies exist 48:00 — The concentrated position trap: identity, emotion, and the sell decision 51:00 — Systematic rebalancing: lessons from Cambria's early days 53:00 — "The easy money's been made" — market phrases Meb despises 55:00 — Deep value and what it takes to be a missionary, not a mercenary 58:00 — The best active managers and why they always close the door at the top 1:00:00 — When the penthouse becomes the outhouse 1:04:00 — The Groucho Marx rule: would you buy what you already own? 1:10:00 — Drawdown, pain tolerance, and the real test of a portfolio 1:17:00 — Concentrated low-basis positions: the tax trap hiding in plain sight 1:19:00 — 100 years of stock data: what the best-performing stocks actually returned 1:22:00 — Tax strategies: 351 exchanges, direct indexing, QSBS, and box spreads 1:27:00 — AI in practice: Meb's custom ChatGPT and how advisors should use AI now 1:30:00 — Behavioral AI: what happens when the bot knows you better than you do 1:32:00 — Closing thoughts: raising your average in a noisier, more complex world</p> #MebFaber #CambriaInvestments #GlobalDiversification #PortfolioConstruction #ValueInvesting #TrendFollowing #6040Portfolio #TaxAlpha #ConcentratedPositions #DirectIndexing #RealAssets #InternationalStocks #RegimeChange #FinancialAdvisor #WealthManagement #InvestingStrategy #RaiseYourAverage #AIInvesting #BehavioralFinance #LongTermInvesting #ETFinvesting #SmartBeta #FactorInvesting #MarketOutlook2026 #AdvisorAnalyst
- Mar 27, 20261h 13m
Alfonso Peccatiello: You're not diversified. You just think you are.
The bond market — not equities — is the most fragile and most misunderstood foundation of your entire portfolio, and most investors have no idea what's coming. Episode SummaryPierre Daillie and Mike Philbrick sit down with Alfonso Peccatiello — former ING bond portfolio manager of $20 billion and founder of macro hedge fund Palinuro Capital — for a masterclass in navigating a world where the old rules no longer apply.With decades of disinflation now behind us, Alfonso makes the case that the classic 60/40 portfolio is structurally ill-equipped for today's macro regime. Drawing from his own eight-quadrant savings portfolio model, he walks through how investors should think about building resilient, all-weather portfolios using risk parity principles, leverage as a diversification tool, and a mix of equities, bonds, gold, CTAs, and the U.S. dollar.The conversation shifts to the current geopolitical shock — a potential disruption in global oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz — and why taking directional risk in a nonlinear, unpredictable event is closer to gambling than investing. Alfonso closes with a bold macro outlook: the most underappreciated story of the next year may not be the U.S. at all, but the rest of the world.3 Key Takeaways1. The 60/40 Is Structurally Broken.The 40-year disinflationary tailwind that made bonds a reliable hedge for equities is over. In today's high-debt, inflation-prone environment, stocks and bonds can fall together — as 2022 proved — making traditional portfolio construction dangerously inadequate.2. Leverage Is a Defense, Not a Weapon.Alfonso's eight-quadrant framework uses leverage not to chase returns, but to free up capital for genuine diversifiers: gold, CTAs, macro hedge funds, and long USD exposure — each sized to contribute equal units of risk across inflation, deleveraging, and growth scenarios.3. When You Can't Predict the Variable, Don't Take the Risk.In a geopolitical supply shock like a Strait of Hormuz closure, no amount of macro skill gives you an edge. The honest answer is to reduce risk, not gamble on a nonlinear binary outcome — a lesson most active managers ignore.⏱️ Timestamped Chapters00:00 Intro: Why the macro regime has shifted00:56 Decades of debt, fiscal dominance & bond market fragility15:15 Welcome Alfonso Peccatiello / Palinuro Capital17:00 The eight-quadrant portfolio model explained22:21 Are Treasuries actually fragile?33:50 Using leverage defensively to unlock diversification36:40 Building blocks: equities, bonds, and positive drift38:29 Protecting against inflation: gold, commodities & CTAs40:28 Protecting against deleveraging: the U.S. dollar's hidden role43:28 Correlation math: why uncorrelated assets reduce total risk45:24 How to size gold, bonds, and carry in a real portfolio50:53 Tracking error: the behavioral trap that kills diversification56:12 The savings portfolio: risk parity in practice58:00 The 4% rule, path dependency & why drawdown size matters1:00:06 Current positioning: geopolitical oil shock & the Strait of Hormuz1:08:16 The most crowded trade in the world right now1:10:20 What will surprise markets most in the next 12 months?1:12:24 Closing thoughts & farewell #MacroInvesting #PortfolioConstruction #BondMarket #RiskParity #AlphonsoPeccatiello #GlobalMacro #Inflation #60_40Portfolio #GoldInvesting #CTAStrategy #FiscalDominance #GeopoliticalRisk #InvestingStrategy #WealthManagement #RaiseYourAverage #FinancialAdvisor #AssetAllocation #RetirementPlanning #MacroHedgeFund #InvestingIn2025
- Mar 20, 20261h 41m
Rotation, Int'l Stocks, Defense-Tech, Japan, USD and the Gold Gap with Jeremy Schwartz and Jeff Weniger
While everyone is arguing about AI disrupting software stocks, WisdomTree's Jeremy Schwartz and Jeff Weniger quietly explain why the most important market story of 2026 has nothing to do with the SaaS selloff — and everything to do with where capital is actually moving.WisdomTree Global CIO Jeremy Schwartz and Head of Equity Strategy Jeff Weniger join Pierre Daillie and Mike Philbrick on Raise Your Average to cut through the noise of the AI disruption panic and make the case for a broader, more structural story unfolding in global markets. From the defense tech supercycle reshaping international equity allocations, to the gold gap most North American portfolios haven't fixed, to a contrarian call on the US dollar at a moment of record-extreme bearish positioning — this conversation covers the ideas that matter most for advisors and investors navigating 2026. Japan, small caps, monetary policy lag, and the behavioral biases keeping investors anchored to a 15-year-old playbook all come into the discussion. If you manage money for clients — or your own — this episode is essential listening.CHAPTERS00:00 — Introduction & what's happening in markets right now08:16 — Guests join: Jeremy Schwartz & Jeff Weniger on the SaaSpocalypse10:27 — Is the AI disruption panic overblown? The BlackBerry parallel16:09 — Rotation: structural shift or head fake?19:35 — AI, jobs, and the history of innovation28:09 — Who actually benefits from the AI buildout?31:50 — The 15-year mega-cap tech bull market is ending — here's what's next32:39 — Jeremy Schwartz introduces the defense tech supercycle35:36 — The dollar: why Weniger is a contrarian bull right now40:30 — Gold: the 10–12% neutral allocation most portfolios are missing44:29 — Why the gold-dollar relationship has changed46:34 — Bitcoin liquidation and the case for gold & silver in 202648:06 — The gold gap: US investors vs. European investors51:14 — International flows: the 80/20 problem and how to fix it55:53 — Japan: the most underowned trade of the decade57:07 — Currency hedging, volatility, and the case for DXJ01:01:45 — Is US mega-cap dominance cracking or just pausing?01:04:16 — The biggest mistake advisors make translating macro into allocation01:05:26 — The Fed lag effect: why 2026 may surprise to the upside01:14:02 — Japan deep dive: debt-to-GDP, Buffett's trade, and OPPJ01:20:41 — Jeremy's top idea: the Japan Opportunities Fund (OPPJ)01:26:28 — Jeff's top idea: the contrarian dollar trade and small caps01:30:37 — Market internals: why most portfolios are actually in the black01:35:14 — What surprises advisors most in the next 12 months?01:39:22 — Uncertainty vs. actual losses — the disconnect in 202601:40:27 — Closing thoughts & thank you5 Key Takeaways1. Market is healthier than the headlines suggest. Ten of eleven S&P sectors were positive over the prior three months. Mid and small caps were outperforming large by 500–700 basis points. Most diversified portfolios were in the black — the pain is concentrated in software and AI-disruption names, not the market as a whole.2. The defense tech supercycle is the structural story most advisors are missing. Rising defense budgets across NATO, Japan, Korea, and India are the seed capital for the next generation of global technology — just as DARPA spending gave us the internet and the cell phone. Europe and Japan are becoming technology investment destinations in their own right.3. Gold belongs at 10–12% in a neutral portfolio — and almost no one is there. US investors allocate less than 2% of ETF assets to commodities versus four to five times that in Europe. Falling yields, Bitcoin liquidation flows, and persistent central bank buying from Asia make 2026 one of the strongest setups for gold in years.4. Dollar bearishness has reached historically extreme levels — a classic contrarian signal. BofA's Fund Manager Survey showed record negative dollar positioning. Every major economy is now running large deficits, weakening the relative case for selling dollars. Weniger's best idea for the next 12 months: the greenback surprises to the upside.5. Japan remains the most underowned and underappreciated equity market in the world. Currency-hedged Japanese equities have compounded at 14–15% annually since 2012, driven by real earnings and dividend growth — not multiple expansion. Japanese equities trade at 15–16x earnings with competitive earnings growth. The biggest mistake: betting on the yen rather than hedging it.#WisdomTree #RaiseYourAverage #GlobalMacro #InternationalStocks #JapanEquities #GoldInvesting #DefenseTech #MarketRotation #Portfoli
- Feb 24, 20261h 38m
Energy Is Destiny: War, China, Gold, Canada & the 60/40 Era
If energy is destiny and stockpiles signal intent, then this episode may completely change how you see oil, gold, China, Canada—and your portfoliIn this high-conviction macro deep dive, hosts Pierre Daillie and Mike Philbrick sit down with returning guest Doomberg to dismantle the comfortable narratives investors use to understand energy, geopolitics, and portfolio construction. Doomberg reframes the global order through a resource-first lens: energy is destiny, stockpiles signal intent, and technology is rewriting the rules of commodities. From Venezuela and Guyana to China’s war rations, from shale’s molecular revolution to Saskatchewan’s overlooked strategic wealth, this episode challenges the assumptions underpinning the traditional 60/40 portfolio. If the last 50 years were defined by efficiency, globalization, and financialization, the next regime may be defined by resilience, reshoring, and resource leverage. This is not just a discussion about oil. It’s about power. 🔑 3 Key Takeaways1. Energy Is No Longer “Just Oil” Shale has fundamentally changed hydrocarbon markets. Crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids are co-produced — meaning price signals can no longer be analyzed in isolation. • What CNBC calls “oil” is no longer just crude. Natural gas arbitrage, LNG flows, and AI-driven electricity demand are quietly reshaping global pricing dynamics.2. The World Is Quietly Re-Industrializing Doomberg argues we are witnessing a regime shift: • Deflationary outsourcing → inflationary reshoring • Strong dollar orthodoxy → weaker dollar tolerance • Efficiency → resilience Trump’s trade posture, sovereign capital repositioning, gold’s breakout, and private infrastructure flows all point toward one theme: industrial renaissance is attempting to replace financial engineering. Implication: The classic 60/40 portfolio may be structurally underexposed to energy, infrastructure, and real assets. 3. China Is Acting Like a Wartime Economy China is stockpiling oil, metals, grains, and gold at unprecedented levels. That behavior can be interpreted two ways: • Defensive hardening • Pre-offensive preparation Either way, the signal is clear: global trade assumptions are shifting toward fragmentation and strategic leverage. Implication: Resource-rich jurisdictions (e.g., Saskatchewan) become strategically relevant in a “might-is-right” world.🕒 Timestamped Chapters 00:00 – Introduction: Energy Is Destiny 01:56 – Venezuela, Guyana & Resource-First Thinking 05:08 – Why Markets Misprice Geopolitical Risk 08:07 – Europe’s Deindustrialization Problem 12:06 – Weak Dollar, Gold & the Industrial Pivot 14:30 – Political Constraints & Capital Cycles 20:24 – How to Separate Signal from Propaganda 26:10 – The Molecular Shift in Oil Markets 33:18 – Natural Gas vs Crude: The Arbitrage Story 37:52 – Propane, Engine Switching & Energy Substitution 40:17 – Energy Exposure & the 60/40 Portfolio 46:01 – Why Producers Are Price Takers 48:25 – China’s “War Rations” Strategy 53:29 – Entering a “Might Is Right” Regime 56:03 – Inverting the 50-Year Investment Playbook 01:05:00 – Saskatchewan: Strategic Resource Wealth 01:13:21 – Canada, Culture & Capital Formation Where to find Doomberg
- Feb 24, 202655 min
AI is Splitting the Market - The Hidden Winners Beyond NVIDIA with Ivana Delevska
AI isn’t just about Nvidia anymore — it’s quietly rewiring the entire industrial economy, and most investors don’t even realize where the real money will be made.In this episode of Raise Your Average, hosts Pierre Daillie and Mike Philbrick sit down with Ivana Delevska, Founder and CIO of Spear Advisors, to unpack how AI is splitting the market — creating massive dispersion between winners and losers — and why passive index exposure may no longer be enough.While most investors believe they’re diversified through Nasdaq or S&P 500 index funds, Delevska explains that passive exposure is heavily concentrated in mega-cap hyperscalers. The real opportunity, she argues, lies deeper in the AI value chain — in networking, optical components, semiconductor capital equipment, electrification, cybersecurity infrastructure, and even space.This conversation goes beyond the hype cycle. Delevska outlines why AI CapEx — projected to reach $600B this year — is fundamentally different from past tech cycles. The sheer dollar magnitude is forcing multi-year infrastructure buildouts, creating 10-year visibility rather than the traditional 3–5 year tech cycle. Yet while hardware beneficiaries remain durable, SaaS and application-layer companies face real disruption risk as AI-native competitors rapidly reshape the software landscape.For investors, this isn’t about abandoning mega-cap tech — it’s about understanding dispersion. In an AI-driven world, alpha will increasingly come from identifying where capital is flowing, how physical constraints shape adoption, and which companies sit at the most critical points in the industrial tech stack.🔑 3 Key Takeaways1️⃣ Passive Exposure Isn’t True AI DiversificationOwning the Nasdaq or S&P 500 mostly means owning hyperscalers. The broader AI opportunity extends into semiconductor equipment, optical networking, power infrastructure, cybersecurity, and industrial tech — areas largely underrepresented in passive indices.2️⃣ AI CapEx Is Structurally Different This TimeWith hyperscalers spending ~$600B annually, the infrastructure buildout has 10-year visibility due to land, power, and supply constraints. This isn’t a short tech cycle — it’s a physical industrial transformation.3️⃣ Massive Dispersion = Massive Alpha PotentialAI will create both winners and losers. Hardware suppliers and infrastructure players may benefit from durable demand, while legacy SaaS and application companies risk disruption. Stock selection and disciplined process matter more than ever.⏱️ Timestamped Chapters00:00 – Introduction & Why This Conversation Matters02:00 – $600B in AI CapEx: Where Is the Money Going?04:00 – Why Industrial Tech Was Underinvested for 15 Years07:00 – The Myth of Diversification in Passive AI Exposure12:00 – Networking, Optical, Semi Cap Equipment: Hidden Winners16:00 – SaaS Under Pressure: AI Disruption in Software19:00 – Spear’s Mental Model for Navigating the AI Stack22:00 – Space, Electrification & Defense as AI Enablers31:00 – The Physical World Bottleneck: S-Curves vs J-Curves33:00 – Dispersion, Alpha & Why Active Management Matters48:00 – Behavioral Mistakes Investors Make in Tech Cycles51:00 – What Could Break the AI Thesis?54:00 – Closing Thoughts & SPEAR ETF (SPRX) #AIInvesting #ArtificialIntelligence #StockMarket #TechStocks #Semiconductors #IndustrialTech #Cybersecurity #DataCenters #ActiveManagement #ETFInvesting #GrowthStocks #SPRX #LongTermInvesting #InvestmentStrategy #RaiseYourAverageCopyright © AdvisorAnalyst.com
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About The Raise Your Average Podcast
This is Raise Your Average, dedicated to making you a better long term investor. Join us and our co-hosts from ReSolve Asset Management, as we sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss and debate macro, markets, investment strategies, and more.
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