Paul Craven on Living With Uncertainty

What happens when someone who spends his life thinking about risk, decision-making and human behaviour is confronted with an uncertainty he simply can’t control?Episode summaryMy guest is Paul Craven, a behavioural scientist, former investment professional, magician and keynote speaker, and one of my favourite people to talk to. When we sat down to record this episode, I noticed that Paul’s voice sounded different.His explanation — that he had recently been diagnosed with oral cancer — took our conversation in an unexpected and deeply personal direction.We explore what his experience has taught him about uncertainty, why he deliberately chose not to Google his diagnosis, and the difference between having information and having useful information.From there, we explore luck and skill, decision and gratitude journals, relationships versus transactions, the dangers of binary thinking, and why sometimes the best thing you can do when you’re in a bad mood is go for a walk in the rain. It’s a conversation about behavioural science, but also about perspective, paying attention and what we discover about ourselves when life doesn’t go according to plan.Key themesLiving with uncertainty and the psychological value of having a planWhy more information isn’t always better informationAI, search engines and our desire for certaintyNuance versus binary thinkingLuck, skill and decision journalsGratitude and paying attention to what mattersRelationships versus transactionsStorytelling, lived experience and different ways of seeing the worldChameleon Thinking and the value of changing perspectiveGuest Profile - Paul CravenPaul is a behavioural scientist, keynote speaker and former investment professional who brings together insights from psychology, behavioural science, finance and magic to explore how people really think and make decisions. LinksPaul Craven — speaker profile and booking enquiriesPaul Craven’s websiteIain McGilchristMartin ShawMark VernonPaul’s previous appearances on the Human Risk PodcastSolo: Paul Craven on Magic, Money &amp; The MindWith Gerald Ashley: Gerald Ashley &amp; Paul Craven on Statistics, Spreadsheets &amp; Scam Artistsand Paul Craven &amp; Gerald Ashley on Context, Consequences &amp; ChangeabilityWith Rory Sutherland: Rory Sutherland &amp; Paul Craven on Alchemy &amp; Magic and Paul Craven &amp; Rory Sutherland on Magic &amp; AlchemyWith Rory Sutherland &amp; Gerald Ashley at Abbey RoadTimestamped summary00:00 — Introduction01:35 — Paul’s diagnosis and living with uncertaintyPaul reveals his cancer diagnosis and reflects on why not knowing can sometimes be harder than receiving difficult news.07:00 — Medicine, empathy and different perspectivesWhat Paul’s experience of the NHS taught him about communication, multidisciplinary thinking and the importance of context.10:00 — Appreciating life, stories and walking in the rainFrom Iain McGilchrist and Martin Shaw to Rowan Williams’ wonderfully simple advice for dealing with a bad mood.17:10 — Reframing, Chameleon Thinking and “All shall be well”Why changing perspective can help us navigate difficult circumstances — including Paul’s own illness.25:45 — Why Paul chose not to Google his cancer<