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The Bitcoin Layer: Daily Summaries Delivered
by The Bitcoin Layer
The Bitcoin Layer is a premium markets research provider, covering bitcoin through a global macro lens | Research, Analysis, & Education. Featuring Nik Bhatia, author of the #1 Amazon bestseller Layered Money and USC Marshall School of Business professor. Most importantly, develop a framework for understanding global markets—connect the dots between economic and financial concepts to see the bigger picture.
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The most recent episodes — sign up to get AI-powered summaries of each one.
- Yesterday33 min
Kevin Warsh Just Blew Up How the Fed Works
In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers today's FOMC decision and Kevin Warsh's press conference, where the new Fed chair reaffirmed the 2% inflation target as a firm goal and made clear he is steering the Fed away from forward guidance. Nik explains why Warsh took credit for the recent rise in Treasury yields, calling it healthy price discovery, and why Warsh now says the Fed will look to the Treasury market for signal rather than telling markets what it will do. He also covers the yield curve steepening on the day, the Nasdaq correction and Korea's stock market crash, and why he thinks Treasury yields have left their four-year anchor for good. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
- 2 days ago1h 10m
The Great Unwinding Wall Street Isn’t Pricing In with Matt Dines
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Matt Dines to lay out his thesis that the global order built after World War Two is being reset. Matt walks through the signals he is watching: the Kuwaiti pipeline deal with Blackstone, KKR, and Brookfield that reroutes energy toward Europe, the US-China rare earths truce and its expiring clock, and the chokepoints from Hormuz to the Red Sea. He connects rising real yields, a flattening curve, and dollar strength to that same reconfiguration, then turns to the Paramount and Warner Brothers fight over Oracle bonds and why he believes the November elections will resolve much of it. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
- 1 weeks ago51 min
The $45,000 Bitcoin Everyone Fears Is Getting Less Likely
In this episode, Nik walks through the latest bitcoin research from Johan Bergman, head of bitcoin research at The Bitcoin Layer, using the charts inside TBL Pulse. He explains Johan's state grid, which plots bitcoin on valuation and trend, and why the framework currently places bitcoin in disbelief territory, a zone where, together with capitulation, bitcoin has spent roughly 40% of its life. Nik covers why bulls bracing for $45,000 are facing data that makes it less likely, and why the 200-day moving average near $73,000 stands as the final boss of the downtrend. He closes on why not retesting the realized price this cycle would signal a maturing bitcoin market. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
- 1 weeks ago1h 5m
Global Macro Update: The Dollar Shortage Pushing Asia Towards Crisis
In this Global Macro Update, Nik returns from teaching his summer bitcoin and AI course at USC to a market waking up after the World Cup lull. He makes the case for a global dollar shortage behind the dollar's continued strength, with stress surfacing across Asia: India's push to pull in overseas dollars, a sharp correction in Korea's KOSPI, and the Japanese yen at its weakest level since 1990. He then turns to the pressure building in hyperscaler and AI corporate bonds, Apple overtaking Nvidia as the world's largest company, and SpaceX slipping below its IPO valuation. Cooling CPI and PPI, treasury yields, gold, and where bitcoin sits in deep-value territory round out the update. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
- 2 weeks ago39 min
Michael Saylor Sold the Bitcoin Bottom
In this episode, Nik welcomes CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten to discuss why he believes bitcoin's bear market may be nearing its end. James walks through ETF flows that have held firm despite months of outflows, the rotation of capital out of AI and semiconductor names like NVIDIA, and where that money could head next. The conversation turns to Michael Saylor's decision to sell bitcoin near the lows, the role hedge funds played in pressuring Strategy through STRC, and on-chain data showing roughly 330,000 bitcoin accumulated between the high fifties and low sixties since February. James and Nik also examine this cycle's unusually shallow 54% drawdown and the case for a bottom ahead of October. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
- 4 weeks ago19 min
This is the Most Bitcoin I Have Ever Bought
In this global macro update, Nik asks whether bitcoin has finally bottomed after tagging 58k and reclaiming 60,000. He walks through the bullish divergences forming on bitcoin's daily and weekly charts, why a grinding-higher dollar has been weighing on liquidity and bitcoin all year, and why he now sees Asia, particularly yen and Korean won weakness, as the most likely spot for trouble. Nik also covers new Fed chair Kevin Warsh and his read that Warsh is playing junior to Scott Bessent on taming volatility, the state of Michael Saylor's STRC dividend and MSTR, and what TBL liquidity is signaling now The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
- 4 weeks ago43 min
I Built a $1 Million System in 11 Days With No Coding with Peter McCormack
In this episode, Nik welcomes Peter McCormack, host of the Peter McCormack Show, for a conversation on how he is using AI in his own business. Peter, who has no coding background, walks through the full podcast-management system he built with Claude in 11 days, work he says would once have taken a 14-person team over a year and cost around a million pounds. He covers how he got started, how he learned to prompt, and why he now thinks of himself as a software engineer. Peter and Nik also discuss why this is the printing-press moment for software, how AI threatens aggregators like hotels.com, and why he believes there is a short window to stake your claim in this new world. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
- Jun 26, 202648 min
Inside SpaceX's $60 Billion Bet on Cursor with Charlie Hu
In this episode, Nik welcomes Charlie Hu, founder of Coco AI and a bitcoiner since 2012, for a wide-ranging conversation on where AI is heading. Charlie shares takeaways from the Super AI conference in Singapore, walks through SpaceX's $60 billion acquisition of Cursor and what it signals about AI capital and exits, and gives his read on the US government's suspension of Anthropic's Fable and Mythos models. He then lays out his core thesis: that AI is ultimately a process of converting energy into intelligence, which reframes data centers, the US-China race, and even SpaceX's valuation as an energy story. Drawing on his background as a bitcoiner and former Web3 builder, Charlie explains why he sees this as the most important paradigm shift of our era. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
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About The Bitcoin Layer
The Bitcoin Layer is a premium markets research provider, covering bitcoin through a global macro lens | Research, Analysis, & Education. Featuring Nik Bhatia, author of the #1 Amazon bestseller Layered Money and USC Marshall School of Business professor. Most importantly, develop a framework for understanding global markets—connect the dots between economic and financial concepts to see the bigger picture.
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