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Simply Put: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Will Compernolle
A podcast from FHN Financial looking at the most important things driving fixed income markets and the macroeconomy. Every episode features experts who give unique insights on topics like the regional banking landscape, commercial real estate, or how to translate Federal Reserve policy into market strategies. Tune in to better understand what’s been moving markets lately, and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead.
Latest Episodes
The most recent episodes — sign up to get AI-powered summaries of each one.
- 1 weeks ago44 min
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh on the AI Buildout’s Hidden Leverage
The AI buildout is becoming increasingly financed by opaque, off-balance sheet partnerships like the Blue Owl and Meta venture “Beignet” that supplement already-surging corporate debt issuance. Given the estimated $9 trillion that will be spent on AI infrastructure between 2025 and 2032, revenue would need to exceed 8% of GDP to give investors modest returns. In this episode, we talk with Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Professor of Real Estate and Finance at Columbia University, about projecting AI investment over the next decade, why it’s moving off-balance sheet, and the emerging sources of systemic risk. Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
- 3 weeks ago33 min
Doug Elmendorf on the (un)Sustainability of Rising Federal Debt
Market participants are growing increasingly worried that ballooning debt levels and high interest rates could precipitate a fiscal crisis in the US. Total federal debt recently surpassed $40 trillion and the government’s annual debt service payments exceed $1 trillion. Last month’s selloff in French sovereign debt shows how a sudden shift in perceived credibility can lead to a negative feedback loop of higher rates and wider deficits. In this episode, we talk with Doug Elmendorf, former Director of the Congressional Budget Office, about assessing the sustainability of federal debt, how a fiscal crisis could unfold, and what bond yields are saying about expectations for a balanced budget. Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
- Oct 2, 202634 min
Jonathan Wallen on How Hedge Funds Seized the Treasury Market
Hedge funds have absorbed much of the recent surge in Treasury issuance and now own a larger share of the market than domestic private banks. Unlike other market actors that are less price sensitive and hold the securities to maturity, hedge funds engage in highly leveraged trades over short time horizons that, in turn, exacerbate episodes of bond market volatility. With Fed officials hoping to reduce their footprint in the Treasury market, policymakers could have a limited toolkit to mitigate any market dislocations during the next crisis. In this episode, we talk with Jonathan Wallen, Assistant Professor of Finance at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business, about how hedge funds’ rising share of the Treasury market increases market fragility. Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
- Sep 18, 202643 min
Robin Wigglesworth on How AI Investment Echoes the 1800s Railroad Boom
The prosperity promised by railroads in the 1800s caused unprecedented investment in the United States that eventually led to the Panic of 1873, the steepest downturn in the US up to that point. The amount of capital being spent on AI today has some wondering if we are likewise in the midst of a bubble about to burst. But as the American experience with railroads shows, a technology can live up to all its hype and still cause a messy and painful adjustment along the way. In this episode, we talk with Robin Wigglesworth, editor of the FT’s Alphaville blog, about the frenzied investment that financed 19th century railroads, the amount of debt being issued by AI firms, and what the railroad boom (and bust) can teach us about the AI buildout’s potential winners and losers. For a chance to obtain a FREE copy of Robin’s new book, A Fabulous Debt: The Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World, email simplyput@fhnfinancial.com with your name and address by September 25. Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
- Sep 4, 202638 min
Katherine Loughead on the State of State Tax Policy
As the pandemic-era shocks of federal stimulus and domestic migration fade, some states are looking for new taxes to increase revenue while others consider tax cuts to address affordability concerns. Proposed reforms for property taxes in Florida, income taxes in Illinois, and a wealth tax in California show how the differences in states’ tax environments are widening even further. In this episode, we talk with Katherine Loughead, Vice President of State Tax Policy at the Tax Foundation, about states’ fiscal positions in the post-pandemic economy, three significant changes to state taxes that could be in the pipeline, and rules of thumb for ideal tax policy design. Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
- Aug 26, 202629 min
SPECIAL PODCAST: Brad Setser on the Efficacy of Recent Treasury Interventions
The recent increase in Treasury’s buyback operations will remove long-term USTs from the market using new short-term debt or cash from the Treasury General Account. Secretary Bessent believes the buybacks will help bring long-term yields closer to what he deems fundamentals. The move comes weeks after Treasury officials intervened to support the yen, in part from worries that Japan would otherwise sell Treasuries to buy up its currency. In this special edition of Simply Put, we talk with Brad Setser, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, about what motivated the increase in Treasury’s buyback operations, why the US helped strengthen the yen, and whether these interventions will have lasting impacts on the Treasury market. Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
- Aug 21, 202633 min
John Graham on How CFOs are (and are not) Implementing AI
The speed and magnitude of AI implementation at the firm level will help determine its overall impact on growth, productivity, and employment. Survey evidence shows CFOs’ approach to AI integration varies based on how they assess the risks and potential benefits of the innovative technology. In this episode, we talk with John Graham, Professor of Finance at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, about what’s driving CFOs’ decisions on AI spend, the impact on productivity and employment thus far, and parallels with the late-1990s desktop computer revolution. Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
- Aug 7, 202639 min
Narayana Kocherlakota on Optimal Fed Communication
Chair Warsh has communicated very little at his first two press conferences, aiming to increase policy flexibility and free markets to “play the ball, not the referee.” This is a marked change from his predecessors who viewed frequent communication as a form of transparency and helpful guidance. Some of Warsh’s desired reforms, however, are subject to FOMC approval and cannot be implemented unilaterally. In this episode, we talk with Narayana Kocherlakota, former President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, about how the Fed approached communication through the GFC, the process for reforming FOMC procedures, and the optimal balance between monetary policy flexibility and guidance. Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
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About Simply Put
A podcast from FHN Financial looking at the most important things driving fixed income markets and the macroeconomy. Every episode features experts who give unique insights on topics like the regional banking landscape, commercial real estate, or how to translate Federal Reserve policy into market strategies. Tune in to better understand what’s been moving markets lately, and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead.
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