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- 4 days ago36 min
Vive la Différence: how do the UK and French bond market challenges compare?
The UK just held its budget, and France is trying to pass one. Both economies have both been in the bond market's sights this year. Their deficits are of a similar size, but the political outlook and institutional structures are very different. In this episode of Macro Bytes, Paul Diggle and Lizzy Galbraith are joined by Felix Feather to compare and contrast the economic, political and bond market challenges on both side of the Channel.
- 2 weeks ago25 min
Can the next Brazilian president satisfy investors?
With less than one week to go until the second round of the Brazilian presidential election, Lizzy Galbraith is joined by Tettey Addy to discuss the candidacies of Flavio Bolsonaro and incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, including what the first round tells us about the likely outcome, whether the next president can meet investor expectations of ambitious fiscal reform, and what the outcome means for Brazilian foreign policy.
- Oct 7, 202631 min
What will divided US government mean for policymaking, the economy, and markets?
President Trump may not be on the ballot, but the 2026 US midterms are shaping up to be a referendum on his presidency. Paul Diggle and Lizzy Galbraith unpack strong Democratic momentum, what Aberdeen's election model implies for control of Congress, the key Senate battlegrounds to watch, and what different election outcomes could mean for fiscal policy, AI regulation, and financial markets.
- Sep 24, 202640 min
How far will central bank interest rate hikes go?
The global monetary policy cycle has turned back to hiking, following two years of (nearly) synchronised rate cuts. In this episode of Macro Bytes, Chief Economist Paul Diggle is joined by Jon Butcher, Felix Feather and Sree Kochugovindan from Aberdeen's Global Macro Research team to discuss the shift back towards monetary tightening. A week or two on from major decisions from the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, the team assesses whether policymak...
- Sep 22, 202649 min
The AI data centre backlash: can the boom survive contact with local politics?
AI may be digital, but its success depends on a very physical reality: data centre construction. As investment in AI infrastructure surges, local opposition is growing too, with concerns over power use, water consumption, visual intrusion, and noise all prominent. In this episode, Paul and Lizzy are joined by Nancy Hardie from Aberdeen’s sustainability team, and Tim O'Reilly from datacentre developer Tritax. They explore the economics, politics and geopolitics of the AI infrastructure buildou...
- Sep 10, 202637 min
When do higher bond yields become a problem for the economy and stocks?
Long-term bond yields have been hitting multi-decade highs. Lizzy Galbraith and Paul Diggle discuss the drivers of this increase in government borrowing costs, what policymakers can and can’t do about it, and at what point higher yields weigh on the economy and broader financial markets. The AI capital investment boom and hyperscaler issuance are playing an important role in driving yields up, but that may turn mean that the impact is different to what conventional wisdom would suggest.
- Jul 2, 202629 min
What would an Andy Burnham premiership mean for the UK economy and markets?
Andy Burnham is set to become Britain’s Prime Minister on 20 July and promises a new style of governance - “Manchesterism”. Luke and Lizzy discuss what Manchesterism means in practice, whether devolution is a credible growth strategy, how a Burnham government might navigate financial markets, and how tight fiscal constraints could ultimately limit both its policy agenda and political fortunes.
- Jun 18, 202644 min
Are recessions predictable? – with Tyler Goodspeed
Many economists and investors try to predict the business cycle in order to time their investments into financial markets. In this episode, Paul and Luke speak to Tyler Goodspeed, author of “Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What to Do About It”, who rejects much conventional wisdom on the business cycle, arguing instead that recessions are the result of external shocks that cannot be predicted. They discuss why humans are pre-disposed to see patterns in economic data, the usef...
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