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- Mar 24, 202629 min
What AI Means for Anthropic, Washington, and Jobs
Noah Smith joins Erik Torenberg at the 2026 American Dynamism Summit in Washington, D.C. to discuss Anthropic's relationship with Washington, bioterrorism risks stemming from AI, why Noah isn't worried about AI causing job loss, and more. - Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 00:28 - Anthropic, DOD, & Government Control of AI 04:28 - Sponsor: NetSuite 09:44 - Advice for Dario & Anthropic 12:13 - Partisan Politics vs. Existential Risk 16:06 - Mass Surveillance & AI 17:30 - The Biosecurity Threat 24:21 - Will AI Take Our Jobs? 28:41 - Outro - Sponsor: NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 - FOLLOW on X: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg https://twitter.com/Noahpinion - Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
- Feb 9, 202644 min
Technology, Crime, and Public Safety w/ Garrett Langley, CEO of Flock Safety
In this episode of Econ 102, Noah and Erik are joined by Flock Safety CEO to cover America's crime crisis and how to solve it with technology. They explore international comparisons, why America's crime problem is unique, how cameras can deter crime, tradeoffs in crime reduction, and more.-Sponsors:NotionAI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done. Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102 NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com-FOLLOW on X:https://x.com/glangleyhttps://x.com/eriktorenberghttps://x.com/Noahpinion-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102- Discussion opened with comparisons between AI's impact on various professions, particularly radiology- America's murder rate is approximately 5x higher than Europe and 10x higher than Asia, making it a significantly more violent country- Crime has become increasingly sophisticated over the past decade, shifting from impulsive juvenile offenses to organized, profit-driven enterprises- Foreign criminal organizations operate with different specialties: South American gangs focus on narcotics, firearms, and use drones for reconnaissance- Geographic spread: American cities are too suburban for effective foot patrols, forcing police to drive instead - foot patrols are proven to be more effective deterrents- Gun availability: While firearms make approximately a 2x difference in murder rates, eliminating all guns (which would be extremely difficult) would only get America halfway to European safety levels- Americans have restructured their entire lives around crime avoidance, creating costs not captured in crime statistics- Deterrence through likelihood of capture: Research shows criminals are deterred by the likelihood of getting caught, not by severity of punishment- Garrett compared criminal behavior to children - they commit crimes because they think they'll get away with it, not because punishment is insufficient- Cameras create permanent records that make crime detection highly likely, fundamentally changing the risk calculus- Even with permissive DAs or judges, the existence of video evidence creates accountability- Japan achieved approximately a 5x reduction in crime through widespread camera deployment- Cameras effectively ended many categories of street crime, with criminals openly acknowledging they "can't commit crimes, there's cameras everywhere"- Reduced crime would save cities enormous costs - San Francisco could save approximately $1 billion by reducing crime to Asian standards- Noah emphasized that "law and order" rhetoric won't work in liberal cities - need a different framing- The progressive case for surveillance: Enables walkable neighborhoods and vibrant urbanism- Some American cities don't believe crime is a serious problem, viewing current levels as acceptable- These cities will likely experience declining populations and tax bases, creating a downward spiral until they recognize the need for action- Cities that resist camera technology often have underlying trust issues with their local government- In communities where residents trust their elected officials want them to succeed, camera adoption is widely embraced-Timestamps:0:00 - Introduction3:00 - The State of Crime in America6:04 - Crime Statistics Debate10:59 - The Solution: Cameras Everywhere12:15 - Sponsors: Notion | NetSuite17:00 - How Deterrence Really Works19:35 - Japan's Success with Cameras22:46 - Privacy and Cultural Trade-offs25:50 - Sponsor: Found38:35 - Economic Benefits and Policy44:19 - Closing Thoughts-Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used
- Jan 2, 202643 min
Europe's Future, Online Politics, and Populism in America
In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover Europe's economic future, how internet discourse has changed politics, the rise of identitarian populism on both the right and left in America, and more.-Sponsors:NotionAI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done. Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102. NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102Europe continues to focus more on regulation than innovation, creating challenges for economic growthTraditional European industries like auto manufacturing are struggling with the transition to electric vehiclesChinese companies are producing better and cheaper electric cars that align with Europe's climate goalsThe Gaza deal is viewed positively because it considers Gaza's economic future beyond just stopping violenceAn economically self-sustaining Gaza might be less likely to support groups like HamasGulf Arab countries could potentially assist with Gaza's economic development given their expertiseIsrael has been militarily successful against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran but faces global criticismIsrael's approach to international criticism has often relied on projecting strength rather than building alliancesIsrael remains dependent on other countries for military supplies despite its own manufacturing capabilitiesRegular people are disengaging from politics, leaving only the most extreme voices engaged ("evaporative cooling effect")Political discussions on platforms like X (Twitter) have become increasingly extremeYoung political staffers who work for both parties are heavily consuming this extremist contentThe speakers observe parallels to the political unrest of the 1960s-70s, which eventually dissipatedUnlike previous eras, today's extremism remains highly visible online even as the general public tunes outDiscussion of Zohran Mamdani's election in New York as representing a new direction in leftist politicsConcern about the mainstreaming of far-right figures like Nick Fuentes who previously were more fringeThe conversation reflects concern about the polarization between extremes while the majority of people disengageThere's agreement that substantive engagement with ideas is needed rather than simply dismissing opponents-Timestamps:00:00 — Introduction00:24 — Europe and Russia03:02 — China and Electric Cars04:38 — Israel-Gaza Conflict06:43 — American Sentiment Toward Israel09:57 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite12:00 — Online Extremism and Political Disengagement22:50 — Staffers and Extremism24:25 – Sponsor: Found25:29 — New York Politics and Mamdani31:47 — The Future of Leftist Politics34:11 — Race and Identity38:06 — Islam and Immigration38:44 — Identitarian Populism41:44 — Closing Thoughts-FOLLOW on X:https://x.com/eriktorenberghttps://x.com/Noahpinion-Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
- Dec 5, 20251h 24m
Immigration Debate w/ Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry and Noah Smith
In this episode of Econ 102 originally aired on the Sphere Podcast, Noah Smith and Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry sit down for a debate on immigration. They cover the philosophical underpinnings of their arguments, where they find common ground, border enforcement, deportation, public opinion, and more.-Sponsors:NotionAI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done. Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102.NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://www.netsuite.com/102Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102Noah Smith and Pascal Emmanuel Gobry (PEG) engaged in a debate about immigration policy, focusing primarily on illegal immigration and enforcement approaches.The conversation centered on philosophical positions about borders, practical enforcement strategies, and the societal impacts of immigration policies.Both agreed that nations should have borders and control who enters, though they differed on enforcement methods.Noah advocated for employer-focused enforcement through company audits and fines rather than deportations.PEG supported stronger deportation measures and argued for the value of deterrence.They debated whether deportations would reduce crime affecting legal residents.Both agreed on the fiscal costs of illegal immigration as a significant issue.They discussed the political challenges of passing immigration reform.-Timestamps:00:00 Introduction05:00 – Philosophical Foundations: Borders, Nations, and Policy09:00 – “No Human is Illegal” & Historical Context13:25 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite15:30 – Enforcement, Detention, and Public Perception24:00 – Asylum Law, Legislative Gridlock, and Political Realities28:10 – Sponsor: Found41:00 – Mass Deportation: Crime, Economics, and Evidence56:00 – Trust, Public Sentiment, and Policy Limits1:10:00 – Final Thoughts & Outro-Listen to the Sphere Podcast:Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/48eWEcxSYDyrgjC3lO0EJZYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCB2gs2TBXeP7vyn9QUaaxjQ-FOLLOW on X:Pascal - https://x.com/pegobry_enNoah - https://x.com/Noahpinion-Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
- Nov 11, 202554 min
AI Business Models, Rare Earths, and China's Economic Challenges
In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore AI's effects on productivity, how AI business models will shake out, the US and China's rare earth minerals industries, and China's economic challenges, including demographics, real estate, and involution.-Sponsors:NotionAI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done. Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102.NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://www.netsuite.com/102Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102AI can affect productivity in multiple ways: replacing humans, enhancing human productivity, creating new tasks, and increasing capital productivityAI may follow other essential industries with low profit margins despite creating enormous value:Like farming, solar power, and airlinesCode-related AI applications are seeing particularly strong adoptionVertical AI applications in specific industries (healthcare, legal, real estate) are gaining tractionChina controls the majority of rare earth mining and refiningThe US has sufficient rare earth deposits but faces two challenges:Regulatory barriers to miningLack of solvent extraction technology and know-howChina's fertility rate is lower than Japan and EuropeHowever, a "baby bulge" (ages 7-22) will support the workforce short-term-Timestamps:00:00 — Intro00:52 — AI’s impact on productivity02:27 — Debating whether AI will increase productivity03:11 — Historical analogy: Electricity’s impact on productivity, lessons for AI07:55 — Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite09:57 — Application layer companies, AI in coding, vertical AI applications12:49 — AI bubble vs. CapEx boom/bust, historical parallels (railroads, telecoms)16:54 — Brand loyalty, price wars, and profitability in AI models22:26 — US-China trade, rare earths, and supply chain challenges32:20 — Sponsor: Found33:33 — China’s demographic and economic challenges, over-competition, and deflation54:06 — Recommendations for China’s economic policy, rationalizing the economy-FOLLOW on X:https://x.com/eriktorenberghttps://x.com/Noahpinion-Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
- Oct 8, 202556 min
Manufacturing's Future, The Electric Tech Stack, and Automation
In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover the transformation of global manufacturing, the rise of the electric tech stack, the landscape of jobs and economic policy, and the state of today's online discourse.–SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102–FOLLOW on X:https://x.com/eriktorenberghttps://x.com/Noahpinion–Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
- Aug 27, 202556 min
Who Profits from AI?
In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and explore how AI is reshaping the economy, jobs, business profitability, industry competition, and financing, while drawing historical parallels and offering insights into its broader societal impact.–SPONSORS:ZcashZcash offers private, encrypted digital money that protects users from AI-powered surveillance, allowing people to store and spend wealth without compromising their privacy. Try it out. Download Zashi wallet and follow @genzcash to learn more: https://x.com/genzcashNotionAI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done. Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102AI Bubble Prediction: The speaker forecasts an AI crash similar to the 2001 dot-com bust, but believes AI will ultimately succeed long-termEmployment Evolution, Not Elimination: Research shows unemployment rising in jobs that use AI less, contradicting fears that AI directly replaces workersData Center Financing Risks: How financing methods for AI infrastructure could create systemic risks similar to the 2008 financial crisis if private credit becomes the main vehicleBond Market Shift: Companies like Meta are increasingly issuing their own bonds rather than using opaque private credit markets, a healthier approach to AI infrastructure financingMultiple Winners in AI: How the massive size of AI markets is enabling multiple successful companies in each category despite traditional concerns about moatsVenture Capital's AI Approach: a16z has been investing heavily in AI companies but feels they've been "too conservative" given the multiple winners emerging across categoriesQuotes:"We tend to think that the markets are just so much bigger, and so even if there's no traditional moats protecting it from other entrants, that there can be multiple winners in a category.” - Erik TorenbergLINKS:The a16z podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYXNoahpinion newsletter: https://noahpinion.substack.com/Erik Torenberg's Substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to Econ102@Turpentine.co-FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
- Aug 15, 20251h 15m
AGI Thought Experiment with Dwarkesh Patel, Noah Smith, and Erik Torenberg | From the a16z Podcast
In this episode from the a16z Podcast, Dwarkesh Patel, Noah Smith, and Erik Torenberg discuss AGI, exploring how AI might transform labor markets, economic growth, space exploration, and geopolitical dynamics in the coming decades.–SPONSORS:ZcashZcash offers private, encrypted digital money that protects users from AI-powered surveillance, allowing people to store and spend wealth without compromising their privacy. Try it out. Download Zashi wallet and follow @genzcash to learn more: https://x.com/genzcashNotionAI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done. Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102Defining AGI: Noah and Dwarkesh begin by establishing working definitions of Artificial General Intelligence - from systems that "can do almost any job at least as well as humans" to more near-term AI that "can automate 95% of white-collar work"Current AI Limitations: Present systems lack crucial continual learning capabilities that would allow them to build context over time and improve with experience like humans doHistorical Parallels: The conquistadors' conquest of the Aztec and Inca empires provides a cautionary tale about information asymmetry and how technological advantages can lead to dominationAI Cooperation: The hosts discuss the need for US-China cooperation on AI safety, similar to the "red telephone" during the Cold War, to prevent AI-related sabotageAI Market Competition: Analysis of the surprising trend of increasing rather than decreasing competitors at the AI frontier, despite rising costs of training frontier modelsNetwork Effects vs. Technical Capability: Discussion of whether brand recognition (like "ChatGPT") or technological advantages will determine market leadersQuotes:"If you make the best AI, it gets even better. So why enter that? That's the big question." - Noah SmithLINKS:The a16z podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYXNoahpinion newsletter: https://noahpinion.substack.com/Dwarkesh podcast: https://www.dwarkesh.com/Erik Torenberg's Substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to Econ102@Turpentine.co-FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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