
Justin Helps is the science educator behind Primer Learning with 2M subscribers. We cover how he got into AI safety, debate AGI timelines, and why he calculates p(doom) to be 70% by 2100 😱.Timestamps00:00:00 — Cold Open00:00:38 — Introducing Justin Helps00:02:03 — What's Your P(Doom)?™00:03:38 — Justin's First Exposure to AI X-Risk00:04:49 — Major Disagreements with Eliezer Yudkowsky00:09:46 — Debating the Timeline to AGI00:12:24 — Metaculus Prediction Market Estimates AGI by 203200:20:06 — Misguided Conceptions of AI's Limitations00:25:23 — Only a 5% P(Doom) by 204000:28:40 — AIs Will Not Care About the Human Species00:31:00 — Summarizing Justin's Position So Far00:36:17 — High P(Doom), but We're Not Depressed00:40:14 — Justin's "Computer Man" Thought Experiment00:51:16 — Should We Pause AGI Development?00:54:15 — AI Doom Is a Serious ConcernLinksPrimer’s Video on AI Doom — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qg5QXY_qZuIPrimer on YouTube — https://youtube.com/@PrimerBlobsPrimer’s Website — https://primerlearning.org/Justin Helps on X — https://x.com/HelpsypooHarry Potter and the Methods of Rationality — https://hpmor.com/Feeling Rational by Eliezer Yudkowsky —https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SqF8cHjJv43mvJJzx/feeling-rationalPause AI — https://pauseai.infoDoom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe
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