Emad Mostaque Has A 50% P(Doom) & A Plan To Lower It

Emad Mostaque helped kick off the modern AI revolution as the head of Stability AI, the company behind Stable Diffusion. Unlike most AI CEOs, he doesn't sugarcoat the risks of AGI development.He explains his 50% P(Doom), why we have less than 1,000 days to get our act together, and how his new startup, Intelligent Internet, aims to be a countervailing force against doom of all kinds.Timestamps00:00:00 — Cold Open00:00:39 — Introducing Emad Mostaque00:02:08 — How Emad Got Involved in AI Development00:05:46 — The 60-Second Pitch for Intelligent Internet00:09:29 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™00:13:32 — Why ASI Doesn’t Need Massive Compute00:15:56 — AGI Timelines: Cognitive Labor Going to Zero00:17:29 — Is There a Ceiling Above Human Intelligence?00:41:22 — Corporations as Slow, Dumb AIs00:50:19 — Emad’s Mainline Doom Scenario00:55:28 — Jailbreaks and “Mecha-Hitler” Latent Spaces00:59:56 — The Last Economy: How to Navigate Economic Doom01:08:57 — The Coming Unemployment Spike01:15:13 — Why Isn’t Google Stock Mooning?01:25:05 — Intelligent Internet as a Solution: Bitcoin for the Intelligence Age01:33:13 — Can an Aligned Network Stop a Rogue ASI?01:36:20 — Is the Pause AI Proposal Too Late?01:40:50 — Are We Facing Russian Roulette Odds with AI?01:42:29 — Wrap-UpLinksEmad Mostaque, The Last Economy (Amazon) — https://www.amazon.com/Last-Economy-Guide-Intelligent-Economics/dp/103693411XIntelligent Internet (ii.inc) —https://ii.incEmad Mostaque, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emad_MostaqueEmad Mostaque on X — https://x.com/EMostaquePause Giant AI Experiments open letter (Future of Life Institute) — https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe