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CRE Exchange: Commercial Real Estate, Property Valuations, Real Estate Analytics and Property Tax: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Altus Group
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- 5 days ago32 min
A split market: Commercial real estate lending trends from Q1 2026
From a 24% quarter-over-quarter rebound in lender quotes to the diverging paths of floating and fixed rate borrowers, the episode offers a data-driven read from Andrew Pabon, Director of Debt Advisory at Altus Group, on where the debt market stands today. Andrew and the CRE Exchange team also dig into the maturity wall, multifamily delinquencies hitting new highs, the lender mix leaning toward debt funds, and what the private credit stress story might mean for private credit in commercial real estate going forward. Key moments01:10 SLOOS signals02:39 Earnings call takeaways06:30 Split market outlook10:12 Benchmark rollercoaster13:47 Spreads and liquidity17:06 Collateral by property type19:57 Maturity wall risks24:22 Changes in lender mix25:21 Macro crosscurrents28:38 Private credit stress31:01 Survey invitation Resources mentionedAndrew Pabonhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-pabon-15a6976/Commercial real estate debt capital markets surveyhttps://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-debt-capital-markets-survey-registration/
- 2 weeks ago47 min
CRE workouts, maturity walls, and the art of restructuring
We sit down with returning guest Shlomo Chopp, Managing Partner of Case Equity Partners, for a candid discussion about CRE distress; the causes, the workout process, and what it takes to get to resolution. Shlomo draws on more than two decades of restructuring and advisory experience to explain why fatigued capital is pulling back from existing deals, what the maturity wall actually means for borrowers and lenders in 2026 and 2027, and why good intentions can walk a borrower straight into a recourse situation. The conversation also covers Shlomo’s LinkedIn series The Road to Default, the real job of a workout advisor, and what he thinks the industry consistently gets wrong about distress. Key moments01:35 Shlomo’s background and firm04:57 Why capital is pulling back09:34 Extensions and operator reality11:04 Office green shoots13:58 Hope trades and rate bets15:09 Maturity wall and data limits19:57 Liquidity paradox and DPOs25:54 Debt and fundamentals27:11 Distress cycle warning29:00 Bankruptcy and CMBS shift34:33 Building the workout plan37:41 Industry pitfalls and accountability40:03 Road To Default thesis43:58 Fixes and final takeaways Resources mentionedShlomo Chopp –https://www.linkedin.com/in/chopp/Case Equity Partners –https://www.caseinv.comThe Road To Default -https://www.linkedin.com/posts/chopp_the-road-to-default-and-potentially-recourse-activity-7445125862422691840-So7x
- Apr 16, 202635 min
The growing case for real estate secondaries
Most CRE professionals have heard of the secondaries market, but few understand how it actually works, or how active it's become. In this episode of CRE Exchange, host Cole Perry sits down with Chris Muoio, Managing Director of Data and Research at Madison International Realty, to unpack the mechanics of direct real estate secondaries, why liquidity needs are accelerating across property types, and what Madison's proprietary liquidity index is signaling about where the market stands today. Key moments01:10 Madison and direct secondaries02:19 What is a secondary deal04:03 Secondaries market size06:08 Why secondaries exist06:59 Misconceptions and control rights08:17 Cycle tailwinds and sector rotation10:18 Hot sectors 13:05 Liquidity crunch and fund structures15:59 Madison Liquidity Index explained18:00 Latest reading and what’s next21:27 Deal flow and typical transactions23:13 GP led secondaries and continuation24:57 Valuation gaps and NAV discounts30:34 Future of the secondaries market32:26 Global differences US vs EuropeResources mentionedChris MuoioMadison International Realty
- Mar 26, 202629 min
Hot inflation, soft growth, and a CRE market caught in the middle
Cole Perry and Omar Eltorai dig into the latest macro data and benchmark today's landscape against some uncomfortable historical parallels. Drawing on three major economist surveys covering more than 100 forecasters, they also map out where there's consensus, where there's divergence, and what it all means for CRE performance and capital markets.Key moments:00:48 Stat of the day: Commercial real estate pricing through the 1970s02:29 70’s déjà vu06:31 Hot PPI inflation08:40 Fed holds rates13:33 Housing sales slide16:21 Wholesale inventories18:56 Economist surveys outlook26:19 Upcoming data and events27:02 Catch us at the ARES conferenceResources mentioned:Producer Price Index – February 2026 - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_03182026.htmFOMC Rate Decision – March 18, 2026 - https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htmFOMC Summary of Economic Projections – March 18, 2026 - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260318.htmNew Residential Sales – January 2026 -https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.htmlAdvance Economic Indicators (Wholesale Inventories) – January 2026 - https://www.census.gov/wholesale/Survey of Professional Forecasters – Q1 2026 - https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q1-2026Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey - https://www.wsj.com/articles/economic-forecasting-survey-archive-11617814998
- Mar 12, 202636 min
The 70s are calling, are the CRE markets listening?
Note: This episode was recorded prior to recent developments in the Middle East and the associated impact on global energy markets. Some macroeconomic context discussed in this episode reflects conditions at the time of recording. Lenders are re-engaging, origination activity is picking up, and the market is beginning to find its footing around the wall of maturities, but rising operating expenses are outpacing rent growth in select segments, and a new set of macro uncertainties is changing the capital markets math for CRE. In this episode, we’re joined by Brian Bailey, Senior Managing Director and Head of Research at Trimont, to examine CRE debt market conditions, sector-level operating trends, and the risks the industry may be underestimating heading into 2026. Brian draws on 14 years as the Federal Reserve System's CRE subject matter expert and Trimont's $700B loan servicing portfolio to share what the data is revealing about credit conditions, expense pressures, and lender behavior across the market. Key moments01:29 - Brian’s career journey07:00 - From Fed to Trimont09:09 - Office lending sentiment11:55 - Trimont data advantage14:11 - Stagflation and expenses18:20 - Capital markets inflection22:03 - Wall of maturities25:54 - Non-bank lending risks29:52 - 2026 themes by sector32:37 - Underappreciated 2026 risks34:36 - An industry wish for transparency Resources mentionedBrian Bailey - https://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-bailey-1a73888/Trimont - https://trimont.com/
- Feb 26, 202652 min
560 billion reasons the US CRE market is finding its footing
The CRE transaction market posted its first annual property count increase since 2021, industrial dollar volume surged 54%, and office may finally be finding a floor. In this episode of CRE Exchange, hosts Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry break down Q4 and full-year 2025 transaction data, pricing trends across major sectors and MSAs, and what the numbers say about where the market is heading. Featuring a special conversation with Phil Tily, Alex Jaffe, and Mike Amthor from Altus Group's advisory practice on valuation and performance trends across the ODCE Index. Key moments01:28 Key stat of the day and macro backdrop05:50 Q4 and full year transactions09:12 Velocity and pricing trends12:36 Subsector and deal size comparisons14:13 Geographic winners and losers19:15 Biggest surprises in 202521:48 Sector shockers: retail, industrial, office27:21 ODCE data and Q4 returns31:46 Apartments trends and outlook35:20 Industrial markets and SoCal repricing40:56 Office stabilization and green Shoots46:58 Retail resilience and mark-to-market Resources mentionedPhil Tily: https://www.linkedin.com/in/phil-tily-7b9a9027/Mike Amthor: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-amthor-40865154/Alex Jaffe: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexander-jaffe-mai-31425123/Q4 2025 US CRE Investment and Transactions quarterly report: https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-transactions/Altus' Q4 valuation and performance trends analysis of the NCREIF ODCE Index: https://www.altusgroup.com/webinars/ncreif-odce-index-quarterly-analysis/#featuredEmail us: altusresearch@altusgroup.com
- Feb 12, 202649 min
What the latest lending data tells us about CRE financing
Bank lending standards are easing, CRE financing competition is rising, and even office is seeing selective reengagement. In this episode, our hosts, Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry, share and discuss the latest SLOOS data, earnings insights from major banks and asset managers, county-level GDP data, consumer sentiment, and small business optimism. Featuring a special conversation with Andrew Pabon, Director of Debt Advisory at Altus Group, on the latest trends from Altus Group’s Debt Capital Market Survey.Key moments01:47 Stat of the Day: Multifamily property age03:09 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey insights07:48 ADP employment data analysis10:07 County-level GDP data breakdown16:19 Consumer and business sentiment reports20:58 Earnings season highlights27:55 CRE Debt Capital Market Survey results with Andrew Pabon47:02 Upcoming Data Releases and AnnouncementsResources mentionedReonomy: https://www.altusgroup.com/solutions/reonomy/ Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202601.htm ADP Employment Report: https://adpemploymentreport.com BEA County-Level GDP & Personal Income: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gross-domestic-product-county-and-personal-income-county-2024 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ NFIB Small Business Optimism Index: https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/new-nfib-survey-small-business-optimism-remains-above-52-year-average/ Altus Debt Capital Market Survey: https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-debt-capital-markets-survey-registration/ Altus Connect: https://www.altusgroup.com/connect/
- Jan 29, 202629 min
Why 2026 could be a surprisingly strong year for CRE credit
What does the CRE credit landscape really look like heading into 2026? Cole Perry is joined by Andy Boettcher, Head of Research at Trepp, to pull back the curtain on bank lending behavior, refinancing risk, extensions, and why fears around the “maturity wall” may be overstated. Drawing on decades of experience from the Federal Reserve to today’s lending data, Andy offers a seasoned, data-driven outlook on where CRE credit is stabilizing, and where it’s still sorting itself out. Key Moments:01:53 Andy’s Background and career journey07:06 From the Fed to Trepp09:53 Macro and CRE market analysis16:34 Bank lending vs. CMBS market25:53 2026 forecast and predictions27:45 Final thoughts and industry wishes Resources Mentioned:Andy Boettcher - https://www.linkedin.com/in/aboettcher/ Trepp - https://www.trepp.com/ Federal Reserve H.8 Report – Weekly Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/default.htm Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/ Atlanta Fed GDPNow - https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow New York Fed Staff Nowcast - https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast What CREFC Miami revealed about CRE debt markets in 2026 - https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/what-crefc-miami-revealed-about-cre-debt-markets-in-2026Email us: altusresearch@altusgroup.comThanks for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property
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About CRE Exchange: Commercial Real Estate, Property Valuations, Real Estate Analytics and Property Tax
The CRE Exchange is your go-to podcast for all matters of commercial real estate. It hosts cutting-edge conversations with industry experts that offer CRE professionals timely insight into market behaviors and analysis to discover new opportunities and better manage risks and costs. We discuss Commercial Real Estate, Property Valuations, Real Estate Analytics, and Property Tax.Whether you buy or build, assist or advise, if you are a key stakeholder in the CRE space, this show is for you.
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