Hot inflation, soft growth, and a CRE market caught in the middle

Cole Perry and Omar Eltorai dig into the latest macro data and benchmark today's landscape against some uncomfortable historical parallels. Drawing on three major economist surveys covering more than 100 forecasters, they also map out where there's consensus, where there's divergence, and what it all means for CRE performance and capital markets.Key moments:00:48 Stat of the day: Commercial real estate pricing through the 1970s02:29 70’s déjà vu06:31 Hot PPI inflation08:40 Fed holds rates13:33 Housing sales slide16:21 Wholesale inventories18:56 Economist surveys outlook26:19 Upcoming data and events27:02 Catch us at the ARES conferenceResources mentioned:Producer Price Index – February 2026 - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_03182026.htmFOMC Rate Decision – March 18, 2026 - https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htmFOMC Summary of Economic Projections – March 18, 2026 - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260318.htmNew Residential Sales – January 2026 -https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.htmlAdvance Economic Indicators (Wholesale Inventories) – January 2026 - https://www.census.gov/wholesale/Survey of Professional Forecasters – Q1 2026 - https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q1-2026Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey - https://www.wsj.com/articles/economic-forecasting-survey-archive-11617814998