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Commodity Compass Weekly: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Jennifer Pickerel
Welcome to Commodity Compass Weekly with Jennifer Pickerel, your essential source for navigating the fast-moving world of commodities. Every week, we break down the biggest market movers, trends, and macro factors driving price action across energy, metals, agriculture, and beyond. Whether you're trading oil, watching gold, or managing risk in softs and grains, this podcast delivers sharp insights and a forward-looking view to help you stay ahead.Join us every week for a concise and informative update that keeps you connected to the pulse of the global commodity markets.
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- 1 weeks ago13 min
Commodity Compass - 7/24 - Brent Crude Approaches $100, Gold Finds Relief
The escalation in the Middle East did not pause this week — it expanded. Iran and the United States continue to apply military pressure throughout the Gulf, and the Houthis appear to have opened a second front, with activity threatening Saudi shipping lanes in a separate strait. Oil has now posted back-to-back double-digit weekly gains — fifteen and a half percent last week, ten percent this week — taking WTI from the high sixties to above ninety dollars in just two weeks. Brent is within striking distance of one hundred dollars per barrel.
- 1 weeks ago12 min
Commodity Compass - 7/19 - Brent Crude Has Strong Week to the Upside, Cattle Markets Potentially Show Signs of Topping
Two macro forces defined the week. Iran and the United States escalated military pressure throughout the Gulf. The ceasefire that markets spent six weeks pricing in showed new cracks, and oil reversed its entire recent descent in a single week. And on Wall Street, the AI momentum trade that powered equities higher through the spring finally hit the summer wall. Rotation out of tech accelerated as summer volume thinned the market’s natural buyers. The physical commodity trade and the financial equity trade moved in opposite directions this week — both driven by the same underlying competition for energy and resources.
- 3 weeks ago14 min
Commodity Compass - 7/10 - The Unraveling Ceasefire Boosts Most Commodities this Week
This week delivered a stark reminder that the Hormuz saga is not over. Two days of direct US-Iran clashes mid-week threatened to unravel the ceasefire that markets have been pricing in for the past six weeks. Bloomberg reported Thursday that peace talks are continuing despite the hostilities — a U.S. official confirmed negotiations remain active. Oil steadied by Friday and finished the week higher. But the International Energy Agency added important context to the week's volatility: renewed hostilities, the agency warned, risk undermining efforts to rebuild the depleted global oil inventories that have been draining since the crisis began. Even if a deal eventually gets done, the physical damage to supply buffers is cumulative. Every week without a resolution is a week of inventory destruction the market will eventually have to price back in.
- 4 weeks ago11 min
Commodity Compass - 7/2 - Oil Continues to Fall Ahead of US Holiday Weekend
It's a short week heading into the Fourth of July weekend and the markets treated it accordingly, with lower volume and decisive price moves driven more by a macro narrative than fresh data. The Iran deal remains unsigned. Supreme Leader Khamenei has not publicly committed. But the cumulative weight of optimism across the past six weeks haspushed WTI down nearly thirty percent from its monthly highs, pricing in a resolution the physical market has not yet confirmed. This week's jobs report added a second macro headwind: payrolls came in below expectations, reinforcinga picture of a U.S. economy that is absorbing the energy shock unevenly — gas prices have come down meaningfully, giving consumers some relief, but the broader labor market is softening.
- Jun 26, 202615 min
Commodity Compass - 6/26 - The Trump Administration Makes Another Investment into Nuclear Energy
The dominant force on the board this week didn't come from a commodity market at all — it came from the AI trade, and the doubt that suddenly crept into it.On Tuesday, a wave of selling hit the semiconductor and memory names that have led this market all year. Micron fell double digits, Marvell, Sandisk, and Arm dropped sharply alongside it, and even Nvidia gave up around four percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq closed down 2.2 percent — its worst session in weeks. And the trigger wasn't a bad earnings report. It was a question: whether the hundreds of billions of dollars in debt-funded AI infrastructure spending is actually going to pay off — and what a more hawkish Federal Reserve does to that math. Following Kevin Warsh's debut, traders have swung from pricing rate cuts a few weeks ago to now pricing the risk of another rate hike by December. The fear gauge popped, money rotated into defensive corners like staples and healthcare, and the tape steadied into midweek.
- Jun 19, 202613 min
Commodity Compass - 6/19 - FOMC Swing Hawkish in the New Warsh ERa
Kevin Warsh held his first press conference as Chair of the Federal Reserve, and he used the debut to push back against the market's expectation of summer rate cuts. The read coming out of that room was unmistakably hawkish — a Fed in no hurry to ease, signaling that it intends to keep policy tight until it is convinced the inflation fight is finished. The dollar firmed in response, real yields pressed higher, and the rate-sensitive corners of the commodity complex — precious metals first and foremost — took the brunt of it. Gold, silver, and platinum all closed the week lower.
- Jun 12, 202617 min
Commodity Compass - 6/12 - More Peace Deal Optimism Rebounds Metal Markets
This week brought the most substantive Iran deal developments since the conflict began. Axios, which hasbeen the primary source of White House leak intelligence throughout the Hormuz crisis, published a detailed walkthrough of the MOU text on Thursday night.According to a diplomat from one of the mediating countries, the U.S. and Iran have agreed on language that calls for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen immediately without tolls, with a return to pre-war shipping volumes within 30 days. Iran would receive temporary sanctions waivers allowing it to sell oilfor 60 days, with further relief tied to compliance. The framework would extend the ceasefire for 60 days, during which nuclear negotiations would be held. Four U.S. Air Force C-17 planes departed to Europe on Thursday, positioning fora potential signing ceremony in Geneva. VP Vance may attend.
- Jun 5, 202615 min
Commodity Compass - 6/5 - Friday's Economic Data Punishes Investors and Commodities
Friday's May employment report landed above expectations across the board — stronger job creation, a tight unemployment rate, and wage growth that gives the Federal Reserve no reason to move toward rate cuts. The reaction was immediate: yields rose sharply, the dollar strengthened, and equity and commodity markets sold off hard. The Nasdaqdropped more than four and a half percent on the day. Gold fell over three percent. Silver lost more than eight percent in a single session. This is the rate-sensitivity dynamic that has been hiding underneath a surface-level market rally all year.
About Commodity Compass Weekly
Welcome to Commodity Compass Weekly with Jennifer Pickerel, your essential source for navigating the fast-moving world of commodities. Every week, we break down the biggest market movers, trends, and macro factors driving price action across energy, metals, agriculture, and beyond. Whether you're trading oil, watching gold, or managing risk in softs and grains, this podcast delivers sharp insights and a forward-looking view to help you stay ahead.Join us every week for a concise and informative update that keeps you connected to the pulse of the global commodity markets.
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