Commodity Compass - 7/19 - Brent Crude Has Strong Week to the Upside, Cattle Markets Potentially Show Signs of Topping

Two macro forces defined the week. Iran and the United States escalated military pressure throughout the Gulf. The ceasefire that markets spent six weeks pricing in showed new cracks, and oil reversed its entire recent descent in a single week. And on Wall Street, the AI momentum trade that powered equities higher through the spring finally hit the summer wall. Rotation out of tech accelerated as summer volume thinned the market’s natural buyers. The physical commodity trade and the financial equity trade moved in opposite directions this week — both driven by the same underlying competition for energy and resources.