Commodity Compass - 7/2 - Oil Continues to Fall Ahead of US Holiday Weekend

It's a short week heading into the Fourth of July weekend and the markets treated it accordingly, with lower volume and decisive price moves driven more by a macro narrative than fresh data. The Iran deal remains unsigned. Supreme Leader Khamenei has not publicly committed. But the cumulative weight of optimism across the past six weeks haspushed WTI down nearly thirty percent from its monthly highs, pricing in a resolution the physical market has not yet confirmed. This week's jobs report added a second macro headwind: payrolls came in below expectations, reinforcinga picture of a U.S. economy that is absorbing the energy shock unevenly — gas prices have come down meaningfully, giving consumers some relief, but the broader labor market is softening.