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by Jeff Kaplow and Marcus Holmes
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- 1 weeks ago1h 2m
Other Forms of Dust
Cheap Talk ends season 6 with listener questions: Control of the Strait of Hormuz; an arrest for trading on classified information on Polymarket; Thucydides and parallels to current US foreign policy; does face-to-face diplomacy build trust or generate more information; teaching tomorrow’s foreign policy leaders in the age of AI; did Hans Neimann cheat; dust as a metaphor in IR; and Marcus doesn’t see the resemblanceWe’ll be podcasting less regularly over the summer, but we’ll be back to our usual weekly schedule in the fall. In the meantime, please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop. Further Reading: Wesley Parnell. 2026. “Soldier Pleads Not Guilty in $400,000 Betting Case Over Maduro’s Ouster.” New York Times. Stewart Patrick. 2026. “The Warmongers Are Getting History All Wrong.” New York Times. See all Cheap Talk episodes
- 3 weeks ago1h 2m
Waiting at the Airport
The current state of US-Iran negotiations (or lack thereof); escalation and mixed signal-sending in the Strait of Hormuz; multiple veto players on each side; Pakistan’s interesting role; the shadow of President Obama and the 2015 Iran Deal; and Marcus has never flown Spirit but has seen the Youtube videosThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.Further Watching:Untold: Chess Mates on NetflixQueen of Chess on NetflixSee all Cheap Talk episodes
- Apr 18, 20261h 3m
It's Real and It's Dangerous
Excitement in the world of digital diplomacy; face-to-face diplomacy to end the Iran war; blockading Iran as a plan B and its prospects for success; Anthropic’s Mythos and AI that is too dangerous to release; the offense-defense balance in cyberspace; building AI for the public good; more capable models are more dangerous, even if they are well aligned; and Marcus can’t be botheredThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.Further Viewing/Reading:Marine Traffic websiteAnthropic. 2026. System Card: Claude Mythos Preview.See all Cheap Talk episodes
- Apr 9, 202651 min
Something Revolutionarily Wonderful
Trump’s threats against Iranian civilization; nuclear threats and the risk of nuclear use in Iran; threatening war crimes is both bad and bad policy; the prospects for the ceasefire and remaining challenges to overcome; the diplomatic role of China and Pakistan; and Marcus feels like he’s in multiple worldsThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.See all Cheap Talk episodes
- Apr 2, 202655 min
Seems Like a Bad Idea
How Russia benefits from the Iran war; President Trump’s recent statements about how the war is going; China is both helped by and hurt by the Iran war; prediction markets as an aggregation mechanism for the wisdom of crowds; insider trading and insider influence; the characteristics of wise crowds; and Marcus will never make that mistake againThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.Further Reading:Will Oremus and Jeremy B. Merrill. 2026. “A journalist reported a missile strike. Then came the death threats.” Washington Post.See all Cheap Talk episodes
- Mar 26, 202655 min
15 Points of Agreement
Uncertainty about the state of US-Iran peace talks; the challenges of US military operations in the Strait of Hormuz; getting nuclear material out of Iran; whether the United States needs a negotiated settlement to end the war; and Marcus is afraid to put his mugs in the dishwasherThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.Further Watching:International Institute for Strategic Studies Panel, “Securing the Strait of Hormuz in Wartime: Military Options and Strategic Challenges.”
- Mar 21, 20261h 0m
Had You Asked Us, We Would Have Said No
Washington’s allergy to the “w”-word in describing the conflict in Iran; the Trump administration seems to have been caught off guard by some aspects of the conflict; what we have learned about the real drivers of the conflict; the extent to which the parties are achieving their strategic goals in the region; leadership assassinations and the quest for stability; calling on allies to help deal with the Strait of Hormuz; speculation about the timeline for an end to the war; and Marcus’ predictions were right, but came ten months lateThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.See all Cheap Talk episodes
- Mar 7, 202659 min
Analysts Are Fairly Skeptical
Failed diplomacy in the lead-up to the conflict; rationales for military action; windows of opportunity and the road to war; the prospects for regime change in Iran; the track record of strategic bombing campaigns; the economics of missile interceptors; what all this means for China and Russia; and Marcus wants to get some figures on the tableThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.See all Cheap Talk episodes
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About Cheap Talk
Cheap Talk is an every-week-or-so international relations podcast with Jeff Kaplow and Marcus Holmes, professors of government at William & Mary.
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