$STVN: are oral GLP-1s really a death blow? | Aurelian Research's Leo Trudel

Stevanato (STVN) makes the glass vials and pre-filled syringes that GLP-1 drugs ship in. The stock has sold off on fears that oral GLP-1s replace injectables, but Aurelian Research&#39;s Leo Trudel argues that&#39;s a misread: biologics demand keeps growing, the mix is shifting toward higher-margin &quot;high-value solutions,&quot; and switching costs in regulated drug delivery are real. We dig into the bull case, the oral-vs-injectable debate, capacity and oversupply risk, capital allocation, regulatory lock-in, and what would change Leo&#39;s view.[00:00:00] Podcast intro and guest welcome[00:03:08] Stevanato&#39;s business model: vials, syringes, high-value solutions[00:03:51] COVID boom and the destocking cycle[00:06:39] Why the stock sold off and what it implies[00:07:34] Market expectations vs. reality[00:11:55] Margin expansion from mix shift[00:14:40] Oral vs. injectable GLP-1s: the real debate[00:17:30] Why oral and injectable aren&#39;t interchangeable[00:19:44] Capacity additions and oversupply risk[00:21:00] Biologics demand beyond GLP-1[00:23:04] Management trust and capital allocation[00:26:52] Regulatory lock-in: the real moat[00:29:42] What could break the bull case[00:30:53] Future capex and where it goes[00:32:41] Industry structure and M&amp;A outlook[00:34:37] AI tools in investment research[00:38:09] Closing thoughts and Leo&#39;s stanceLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p...Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - <a href="https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbl9aV3FpUUUtMkJ6SDQ2bHc4VnZiaXUzWHZRZ3xBQ3Jtc0tuYlYybVRSR1ozSkNVakhMdk5Db2oxQno5ek5ueDhOU2hyOUZG