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- 4 days ago1h 4m
$DRVN Cruising through the Driven Brands thesis | Kyle Mowery GrizzlyRock Capital
Driven Brands ($DRVN) puked on a February accounting restatement. Kyle Mowery (GrizzlyRock Capital) walks through why Take 5 remains a crown jewel and could be worth the entire EV of the company (making the franchise and autoglass businesses a free option). We also dig into how the April and May 8-Ks took the scary left-tail risks off the table, why Roark Capital (65% owner) might run a sale process later this year, and the bear case (corporate cost bloat, weakness in the non-Take-5 brands).disclaimer: Andrew is long DRVNKyle's late 2024 DRVN podcast: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/grizzlyrock-capitals-kyle-mowery?utm_source=publication-search[00:00:00] Intro and disclosures[00:03:23] What is Driven Brands today[00:05:14] Why the car wash divestiture sold so cheap[00:09:19] Why Take 5 is the crown jewel[00:11:15] EV risk and the US ICE car park[00:13:21] Franchisee demand and unit growth[00:15:31] Take 5 vs. Valvoline[00:18:13] The addbacks problem[00:20:57] Inside the accounting restatement[00:23:22] The cash adjustment[00:28:50] The ATI revenue recognition issue[00:30:12] Reading the April and May 8-Ks[00:32:40] Debating adjusted EBITDA[00:34:55] Corporate cost bloat[00:37:54] Is this fraud? No[00:39:49] Weakness in the non-Take-5 brands[00:43:45] Sum-of-the-parts: Take 5 covers the debt[00:46:30] Why public markets misprice the franchise brands[00:48:04] Durability of franchise cash flows[00:50:14] Timing the resolution[00:53:26] Roark Capital's strategic options[00:57:40] Labor Day or Halloween?[01:00:00] Capital cycle stories Kyle's watching[01:03:02] Chinese supply pressure on industrialsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
- 1 weeks ago53 min
$LBTYK: can Liberty Global finally spin to win? | Stock Spin-Off Investing's Rich Howe
Rich Howe of Stock Spin-Off Investing makes the bull case for Liberty Global ($LBTYK): cheap on a sum-of-the-parts, an upcoming Ziggo spin to crystallize value, and a hidden ventures portfolio. Andrew pushes back hard on Malone, Fries, and Liberty's long history of value that never quite shows up.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Liberty Global thesis01:44 Sponsor: AlphaSense earnings season04:49 Rich's bull case for $LBTYK07:46 Andrew on management credibility09:05 Why a spin can unlock value11:57 Buybacks: are they actually working?15:19 Debt structure and the deleveraging path17:14 Operational deterioration risk19:52 Ziggo's subscriber losses24:09 Malone and Fries: the track record27:46 The Liberty Global board problem31:22 The growth investment portfolio32:59 Why Rich haircuts the portfolio36:43 Formula E and venture exposure38:35 The empire-building risk40:55 Virgin Media O2 restructuring42:11 Other spin-off setups worth a look43:40 Ziff Davis sum-of-the-parts46:52 Andrew on distressed SaaS ideas48:22 Lionsgate and media consolidation51:53 Lionsgate as an acquisition targetLinks:Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comStock Spin-Off Investing (Rich Howe): https://www.stockspinoffinvesting.comLegal disclaimer: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant: https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
- 1 weeks ago39 min
$STVN: are oral GLP-1s really a death blow? | Aurelian Research's Leo Trudel
Stevanato (STVN) makes the glass vials and pre-filled syringes that GLP-1 drugs ship in. The stock has sold off on fears that oral GLP-1s replace injectables, but Aurelian Research's Leo Trudel argues that's a misread: biologics demand keeps growing, the mix is shifting toward higher-margin "high-value solutions," and switching costs in regulated drug delivery are real. We dig into the bull case, the oral-vs-injectable debate, capacity and oversupply risk, capital allocation, regulatory lock-in, and what would change Leo's view.[00:00:00] Podcast intro and guest welcome[00:03:08] Stevanato's business model: vials, syringes, high-value solutions[00:03:51] COVID boom and the destocking cycle[00:06:39] Why the stock sold off and what it implies[00:07:34] Market expectations vs. reality[00:11:55] Margin expansion from mix shift[00:14:40] Oral vs. injectable GLP-1s: the real debate[00:17:30] Why oral and injectable aren't interchangeable[00:19:44] Capacity additions and oversupply risk[00:21:00] Biologics demand beyond GLP-1[00:23:04] Management trust and capital allocation[00:26:52] Regulatory lock-in: the real moat[00:29:42] What could break the bull case[00:30:53] Future capex and where it goes[00:32:41] Industry structure and M&A outlook[00:34:37] AI tools in investment research[00:38:09] Closing thoughts and Leo's stanceLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p...Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - <a href="https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbl9aV3FpUUUtMkJ6SDQ2bHc4VnZiaXUzWHZRZ3xBQ3Jtc0tuYlYybVRSR1ozSkNVakhMdk5Db2oxQno5ek5ueDhOU2hyOUZG
- 2 weeks ago50 min
Can Sprout Social Survive the SaaSpocalypse with Pernas Research's Deiya Pernas $SPT
In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Deiya Pernas of Pernas Research about Sprout Social (SPT) and the broader SaaS selloff. They examine the company’s platform, competitive positioning, and whether the market is mispricing its long-term potential. The discussion covers API complexity, integrations, AI risks, and shifting perceptions across SaaS. They also address valuation, stock-based compensation concerns, and possible catalysts including governance changes or acquisition interest. The conversation closes with a wider look at the so-called SaaS apocalypse and where opportunities may exist.____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction and guest overview[00:03:59] Sprout Social business model explained[00:05:38] Market mispricing and SaaS selloff[00:09:53] Fundamentals versus market perception debate[00:12:05] SaaS valuation reset discussion[00:13:45] Platform capabilities and customer usage[00:15:16] API complexity and competitive advantage[00:18:58] Compliance risks and AI concerns[00:21:48] Platform competition from social networks[00:23:50] AI disruption and company adaptation[00:27:07] Systems of record skepticism discussed[00:30:00] Integrations and switching costs impact[00:31:01] Stock-based compensation concerns raised[00:32:01] Dilution risks and sustainability issues[00:33:48] Governance changes as potential catalyst[00:35:49] Management turnover and uncertainty[00:36:46] Acquisition potential discussed[00:38:59] Broader SaaS opportunities and risks[00:42:11] SaaS durability versus AI disruption[00:45:36] Lack of insider buying observations[00:46:55] Criticism of board incentivesLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
- 3 weeks ago1h 1m
Chadd Garcia drills into LandBridge's value
In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by returning guest Chad Garcia to discuss LandBridge and the broader Permian Basin ecosystem. Chad outlines how land-based royalty models differ from traditional energy investments, highlighting surface rights, produced water, and infrastructure as key drivers. The conversation covers LandBridge’s growth through pore space expansion, strategic land acquisitions, and its relationship with WaterBridge. They also examine valuation differences versus peers like TPL, the role of data centers in West Texas, and why the market may be underestimating future cash flow. The episode concludes with an update on Secure Energy’s acquisition and its implications for the waste infrastructure thesis.____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction and Chad Garcia returns[00:04:07] LandBridge overview and investment thesis[00:05:26] History of land royalty businesses[00:08:57] TPL business model breakdown[00:13:21] LandBridge business and revenue streams[00:16:11] Valuation comparison versus TPL[00:17:21] Market skepticism and short thesis[00:20:59] Incremental pore space growth potential[00:24:27] Sponsor ownership and insider alignment[00:26:50] Structure and related party concerns[00:29:12] Acquisition strategy and value creation[00:31:30] Strategic land positioning explained[00:36:01] Competitive advantages in pore space[00:39:37] Data center opportunity in Permian[00:43:38] Challenges to data center deployment[00:46:42] Valuation framework and growth outlook[00:48:36] LandBridge versus WaterBridge comparison[00:49:31] Secure Energy acquisition overview[00:51:06] Waste thesis validation discussion[00:55:35] Reaction to acquisition valuation[00:58:16] Market education still ongoing[01:01:12] Closing thoughts and disclaimerLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
- 3 weeks ago1h 6m
Investing in the SaaSpocalypse with Heller House's Marcelo Lima
In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Marcelo Lima of Heller House Capital about the "SaaSpocalypse". Marcelo shares his perspective from years of following software companies, arguing that fears around AI disrupting SaaS are overblown. They examine whether AI tools threaten incumbents like Salesforce or instead strengthen them through faster product development. The discussion covers valuation compression, enterprise software moats, customer behavior shifts, and the role of AI as infrastructure. Andrew also raises concerns about disruption risks, insider signals, and workforce changes, leading to a debate on whether this moment represents risk or opportunity.Marcelo's memos on softwareMemo 1: https://mailchi.mp/hellerhs/opportunities-in-softwareMemo 2: https://mailchi.mp/hellerhs/opportunities-in-software-part-ii_________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction and SaaS apocalypse topic[00:02:24] Disclaimer and setup discussion[00:03:26] SaaS selloff and market reaction[00:07:58] AI disruption concerns raised[00:10:09] Valuation compression and risk pricing[00:14:24] Salesforce adoption timing shifts[00:16:09] Incumbents’ advantage and feedback loops[00:20:57] Headless software and interface changes[00:22:29] Backend value versus frontend control[00:27:02] Historical analogy with Slack usage[00:29:22] Insider buying skepticism discussion[00:34:36] Power law dynamics in SaaS[00:35:53] Company earnings and AI impact[00:36:36] Adobe Lightroom AI example[00:40:11] Bloomberg replacement with AI tools[00:42:25] AI tooling limitations and costs[00:46:02] Bugs and reliability challenges[00:47:24] Preferred SaaS companies discussed[00:51:28] Stock compensation and dilution concerns[00:55:59] AI productivity and hiring dynamics[00:56:27] Opposing view on engineer demand[00:59:16] AI increasing work intensity[01:00:23] Enterprise software reliability moat[01:04:49] AI as infrastructure layerLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
- 4 weeks ago57 min
Why DraftKings might not be a big gamble with Aganju's Tolu Bukola $DKNG
In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Tolu Bukola from Aganju Capital about DraftKings and the growing threat from prediction markets. Tolu explains DraftKings’ business model, highlighting both sports betting and the expanding iGaming segment. The discussion focuses heavily on regulatory risks, including how prediction markets operate and why they may face legal challenges. They examine potential outcomes if regulation changes, how market share could shift, and what that means for DraftKings’ long-term economics. The episode also covers valuation perspectives and the role of government intervention in shaping the industry’s future.You can see Tolu's DKNG write up here___________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast introduction and guest overview[00:00:33] DraftKings and prediction markets focus[00:03:21] DraftKings business and history explained[00:05:26] Prediction markets model and mechanics[00:07:33] Market reaction and investor behavior[00:09:14] iGaming growth and profitability discussion[00:11:09] iGaming competition and market structure[00:14:55] DraftKings execution and product strengths[00:16:02] Prediction markets as key risk[00:17:34] Product appeal and investor bias[00:18:57] Betfair comparison and market share[00:20:20] Cultural shifts and trading behavior[00:22:12] Early impact on sportsbook data[00:23:12] Market share uncertainty discussion[00:24:38] Government incentives and regulation[00:26:25] Why Betfair remained small[00:29:31] Pricing differences and fee structure[00:31:32] Complexity of sportsbook operations[00:32:38] Regulatory advantages of prediction markets[00:34:43] Insider trading and integrity concerns[00:37:04] Legal paths and regulatory outcomes[00:39:17] CFTC role and enforcement issues[00:41:37] Timing risks and market share shift[00:42:56] Long-term investment thesis[00:44:23] Valuation framework and upside case[00:48:40] DraftKings competing in prediction markets[00:49:55] Parlay economics and profitability[00:51:24] Regulatory risks beyond prediction markets[00:53:30] Government incentives and taxation[00:54:24] Supreme Court outlook and legal stance[00:55:56] Native American tribes involvementLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
- Apr 16, 202633 min
April 2026 Random Ramblings
In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker shares his April monthly ramblings, covering a range of investing topics top of mind. He examines the recent selloff in SaaS companies and why they may not be as attractive as they appear. Andrew explores the idea of hedging against AI disruption using large-cap tech options, while also questioning how AI and pattern recognition could reshape investing. He reflects on the balance between experience and laziness in decision-making and closes with a personal discussion on the mental challenges of missing major investment opportunities.Check out fiscal.ai here: fiscal.ai/?via=yav______________________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast introduction and monthly ramblings[00:01:02] Call for ratings and subscriptions[00:01:37] Sponsor discussion and product usage[00:02:40] Overview of April discussion topics[00:04:35] SaaS selloff and valuation concerns[00:07:10] AI impact on SaaS demand[00:08:03] Software terminal value concerns[00:08:54] SaaS as difficult investment category[00:10:16] Importance of differentiated investment edge[00:12:09] AI risks to investing careers[00:13:32] Idea of hedging AI exposure[00:14:29] Meta stock option implications[00:15:54] Rationale for big tech hedges[00:17:18] Thoughts on leap options strategy[00:18:33] Pattern recognition in investing[00:20:09] When pattern recognition becomes harmful[00:21:35] Balancing experience versus laziness[00:22:21] AI and pattern recognition limitations[00:23:33] Market adaptation to investor behavior[00:25:08] Potential AI investing weaknesses[00:26:48] Using AI tools in research[00:28:36] Emotional challenges in investing[00:29:18] Missed Avis investment opportunity[00:30:24] Frustration from missed gains[00:31:08] Balancing emotions and discipline[00:32:28] Closing remarks and sign-offLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
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About Yet Another Value Podcast
Yet Another Value Podcast is a new podcast from Andrew Walker, the founder of yetanothervalueblog.com/. We interview top investors and dive deep into stocks and companies they are currently working on and investing in. While nothing on this channel is investing advice and everyone should do their own diligence, our goal is to frequently feature edgy and actionable value and/or event driven ideas.Please see our legal and disclaimer at: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
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