SI419: What Happens When AI Starts Building the Portfolio ft. Nick Baltas

Alan Dunne is joined by Nick Baltas to discuss a strong period for trend following and what the latest research says about adapting systematic strategies to changing markets. They examine whether volatility can help determine how quickly trend models should react, and why Nick remains skeptical of relying on regime triggers with limited statistical evidence. The conversation then turns to agentic AI and a new framework for using specialized AI agents in asset allocation. Nick explores how agents could analyze macro regimes, challenge competing portfolio approaches and help investment committees make decisions faster, while also confronting problems around look-ahead bias, reproducibility and human oversight.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Nick’s radar02:05 - The extraordinary concentration inside the S&P 50004:46 - Why global bond yields are moving higher08:56 - A strong month and year for trend following13:54 - Why the bond move has happened without a volatility spike16:29 - Can volatility make trend following better?21:17 - What the latest research actually tells us24:27 - How Nick uses volatility in portfolio construction27:38 - Why making trend models more complicated may not help30:19 - V-shaped markets and the problem with regime triggers32:36 - How agentic AI could reshape asset allocation44:48 - What actually drives an AI-built portfolio?50:19 - The problem with backtesting AI investment models55:16 - Could the same AI framework work for trend following?58:33 - Using AI to manage multiple investment objectives01:02:19 - When will we see portfolios run by AI agents?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Sc