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Top Traders Unplugged: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade. Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success. No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance. If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge. Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience.
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- 2 days ago51 min
OI25: What If Lower Volatility Is the Wrong Goal ft. Suhaimi Zainul-Abidin
Moritz Seibert is joined by QuantEdge CEO Suhaimi Zainul-Abidin to explore how one of Singapore’s most successful systematic firms approaches risk, diversification and long-term compounding. Suhaimi explains why QuantEdge deliberately runs at a much higher volatility than most institutional portfolios, how the firm combines hundreds of independent risk premia across equities, bonds, commodities and insurance-linked securities, and why diversification should create room to take more risk rather than simply reduce it. They also discuss capacity, investor lockups, portfolio rebalancing and the lessons QuantEdge learned from surviving both the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID market shock.-----JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Suhaimi on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:03:07 - How QuantEdge grew from $3 million to nearly $8 billion07:29 - Why QuantEdge doesn’t fit neatly into the CTA bucket09:10 - How risk premia create returns across markets11:20 - Systematically investing in insurance-linked securities15:18 - Building a portfolio from hundreds of independent bets20:32 - Why QuantEdge targets around 25% volatility25:24 - Where the firm’s returns have actually come from27:06 - How the strategy evolved from 50 markets to nearly 30029:34 - How much capital can QuantEdge realistically manage?32:46 - Why the firm refuses to dilute its strategy for investors37:11 - Why long lockups can actually protect investors46:33 - The toughest periods in QuantEdge’s 20-year historyCopyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact
- 6 days ago1h 6m
SI424: Can Your Portfolio Survive the AI Hangover? ft. Alan Dunne
How resilient is your portfolio if stocks and bonds fall together? Alan Dunne joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to examine what stock–bond correlations can conceal and why owning more assets may leave investors exposed to the same risks. They explore how an AI boom could unravel, what that might mean for debt and monetary policy, and how trend following can help portfolios adapt without forecasting the next crisis. The conversation also tackles the patience diversification demands when equities race ahead, and whether greater resilience can improve long-term compounding.-----JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Alan’s radar15:17 - Trend following performance and manager dispersion20:27 - The Fed’s new approach and what it means for markets26:50 - What happens if the AI boom eventually unwinds?35:26 - Why stock-bond correlation is more complicated than it looks43:42 - Can trend following help diversify the bond side of 60/40?46:23 - The economic scenarios that could hurt stocks and bonds together49:57 - How to diversify without trying to predict the next regime54:27 - What does portfolio resilience actually mean?01:00:44 - Can a more resilient portfolio also deliver better returns?Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here</s
- 1 weeks ago1h 4m
GM109: Why Buffett Finally Went All In on Japan ft. Andrew McDermott
Alan Dunne is joined by Mission Value Partners founder Andrew McDermott to challenge some of the conventional thinking around Japan. Andrew argues that Japan’s supposed “lost decades” look very different when viewed beyond GDP and stock market performance, and that its emphasis on manufacturing, engineering and long-term resilience may now be becoming a major advantage. They discuss the consequences of financialization in the US and Europe, Japan’s role in semiconductors, robotics and AI, and why Warren Buffett’s move into Japanese equities matters. The conversation also explores public debt, domestic capital flows and why Japan could play a much larger role in the global economy ahead. For those who are quick, check out this event featuring Andrew McDermott as well as last weeks guest Jesper Koll: https://mvpnashjapan.up.railway.app/-----JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow Mission Value Partners on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and Andrew’s path into Japan investing05:05 - Why Andrew thinks Japan’s capitalism works better11:32 - Manufacturing, industrial policy and the return of real investment15:10 - Why investors may have misunderstood Japan for decades19:56 - Is the era of financialization starting to reverse?24:52 - AI, machine learning and Japan’s hidden advantage31:11 - Japan versus China and two very different economic models35:55 - Has Japan really changed or were investors simply wrong?40:45 - What Warren Buffett saw in Japan45:19 - Is Japan’s government debt really as dangerous as it looks?52:40 - What happens if Japanese capital starts coming home?56:33 - What Japan could look like ten years from nowCopyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/eb
- 1 weeks ago1h 14m
SI423: Why Trend Following Might Outlast the AI Arms Race ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski explore why the changing structure of global markets may be creating a very different environment for trend followers. They discuss why today’s bond selloff may represent a return to normal rather than an anomaly, how declining safe-haven benefits could reshape government debt, and why geopolitical fragmentation may increase divergence across markets. Mark also examines commodity shortages and the conditions that can produce explosive price moves. Finally, they turn to AI and machine learning, asking whether increasingly similar quantitative models are shortening the life of alpha and why trend following may prove unusually durable in an increasingly crowded investment landscape.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Why trend following may be different in the age of machine learning02:09 - France, rising yields and changing perceptions of safe assets07:27 - Trend following performance and a changing bond market16:29 - Why the structure and participants of markets matter20:26 - Liquidity, capital flows and the plumbing behind financial crises27:58 - Globalization, capital flows and the role of the dollar35:33 - Crises, market upheavals and commodity supercycles37:32 - Why today’s higher bond yields may actually be normal45:31 - Are Treasuries losing some of their safe-haven advantage?52:26 - Geoeconomic fragmentation and what it means for trend following56:51 - Commodity shortages and why prices can suddenly go parabolic01:02:12 - AI, crowded models and the shrinking half-life of alphaCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more
- 2 weeks ago1h 3m
GM108: Maybe Japan Is Finally Changing for Real ft. Jesper Koll
Alan Dunne is joined by longtime Japan strategist Jesper Koll to explore why Japan may be entering one of its most important economic shifts in decades. Jesper explains why demographics and government debt are less threatening than many investors assume, and how labor scarcity, rising wages and corporate reform are reshaping the economy from within. They discuss the return of domestic capital, Bank of Japan normalization and the government’s push into semiconductors, defense and energy. Jesper also makes the case that Japan’s broad economic expansion, industrial strength and accelerating corporate consolidation could make it unusually resilient in a world increasingly dominated by the AI cycle.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow Jesper on Substack.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and the optimistic case for Japan02:10 - How Jesper built a career around Japan04:12 - Why Japan’s underlying strengths are often overlooked07:12 - Demographics, labor scarcity and rising productivity11:04 - Why Jesper doesn’t see Japan’s debt as a crisis13:34 - Is Japanese capital finally coming back home?17:15 - Takaichi, industrial policy and the next phase after Abenomics22:17 - Why the Bank of Japan may start moving faster25:46 - The yen, carry trades and the risk of a stronger currency33:51 - Japan’s push into semiconductors, defense and industrial policy38:18 - Energy security and Japan’s next major investment challenge40:31 - Why Japan is taking a different approach to AI44:18 - Could Japan outperform if the US AI boom slows?47:16 - What the West can learn from Japan52:35 - Corporate reform, generational change and consolidation57:19 - Where Japanese rates could go next58:16 - The key signals investors should watch from hereCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have work
- 2 weeks ago1h 9m
SI422: Why Trend Following Rewards Patience ft. Katy Kaminski
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Katy Kaminski explore why geopolitical risk and structural inflation may be changing some of the assumptions behind traditional portfolios. Katy revisits her recent Copenhagen presentation on crisis alpha, explaining why bonds can lose their diversification benefits when inflation becomes the dominant risk and why rules-based strategies can adapt more easily. They discuss research on preparing for different inflation regimes, the trade-offs between commodities and trend following, and new work from Quantica on why investors not always get the full benefit of investing in trend following. The episode closes with an important lesson: a small number of months drive much of trend’s long-term return, making patience and portfolio design critical.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Katy's radar06:16 - Why 2026 looks very different from 2022 for trend followers11:12 - Geopolitical risk, inflation and Katie’s Copenhagen presentation17:50 - Why today’s environment could challenge traditional portfolios21:55 - What happens when bonds start behaving badly28:46 - Why rules-based strategies can adapt when markets change31:46 - Rethinking crisis alpha for an inflationary world41:56 - Commodities versus trend following as inflation protection47:40 - Why a handful of months drive so much of trend’s return52:38 - How investors end up timing liquid alternatives badly58:12 - How institutions can make it easier to stay invested01:02:50 - Can packaging trend with other assets solve the problem?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer an
- 3 weeks ago1h 10m
UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann
Cem Karsan is joined by Goldman Sachs’ Christian Mueller-Glissmann to ask how much longer the AI boom can keep supporting markets as the bond market becomes increasingly difficult to ignore. They discuss whether today’s extraordinary earnings growth is sustainable, why Christian sees more evidence of an earnings bubble than a valuation bubble, and how higher yields are beginning to pressure parts of the equity market. The conversation also explores unusually high dispersion, cheap equity volatility and the growing challenge of portfolio diversification before turning to geopolitical risk, gold, FX volatility and how investors might prepare for a more inflationary and less predictable market regime.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Christian on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and why the bond market matters again02:13 - How the AI boom changed the market regime06:41 - Are the earnings from AI actually sustainable?10:38 - An earnings bubble rather than a valuation bubble?17:18 - What happens if earnings start to mean revert22:15 - When the stock market starts driving the economy28:55 - Why bonds are becoming the speed limit for equities38:39 - Can the AI boom keep going if rates stay high?42:21 - Why equity volatility looks unusually cheap45:30 - What extreme dispersion is telling us about the market52:44 - How to prepare for a market you can’t time58:20 - Geopolitics, real assets and the changing role of bonds01:02:20 - Debasement and the risk investors may be underestimating01:05:54 - Why currency volatility could matter much moreCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here<st
- 3 weeks ago1h 18m
SI421: Taking CTAs Mainstream ft. Andrew Beer
How reliable is 60/40 when stocks and bonds fall together? Andrew Beer joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to question the return forecasts and diversification assumptions behind traditional asset allocation. They explore how a systematic, non-emotional approach to tactical investing can help portfolios adapt as markets change. The conversation also sets out how to grow the CTA/managed futures pie by explaining the strategy’s value in language investors understand. They discuss why diversification across managers and realistic expectations for uneven returns matter for building investor confidence and encouraging lasting allocations.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why portfolios may need a more tactical approach01:04 - AI, entrepreneurship and the changing world of work08:07 - Complex systems and why the future is so difficult to predict09:47 - Trend following performance and what is driving returns13:59 - Why the traditional 60/40 portfolio is being questioned16:20 - The problem with long-term asset allocation assumptions22:41 - Diversification, market timing and the historical advantage of bonds27:01 - What 27 years of managed futures data tells us31:51 - Crisis alpha across the dot-com crash, GFC and 202236:08 - Correlation, alpha and the diversification case for CTAs38:12 - Drawdowns and why tactical strategies can preserve capital44:55 - Sharpe ratios and the problem of lumpy returns50:39 - Why choosing the right managed futures manager is so difficult54:57 - How managed futures can finally grow the pie01:05:04 - Why the industry needs to stop getting lost in the technical details01:08:14 - The danger of betting everything on one manager01:13:02 - Why timing managed futures can make a good strategy look badCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/
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About Top Traders Unplugged
Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade. Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success. No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance. If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge. Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience.
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