Tom Nelson

Dai Ato: “ Spurious Correlation Between Atmospheric CO2 Increase and Human Emissions” #424

August 28, 2026·40 min
Episode Description from the Publisher

Dai Ato presents findings from three papers arguing atmospheric CO2 rise is largely natural, claiming multivariate analyses reject human emissions as a significant predictor of annual CO2 increases while sea surface temperature (SST) is significant. He says detrended annual-change comparisons show emissions vs CO2 change has near-zero correlation, while SST retains moderate correlation, consistent with CO2 solubility in water. He also claims ice-core CO2 reconstructions are incorrect and that temperature leads specific humidity, rejecting CO2–water vapor positive feedback; absorbed shortwave and total solar irradiance correlate with SST while CO2 is negligible or negative. In Q&A, he expects the Keeling Curve to keep rising, COVID emission drops to have little effect, and rejects a stable 280 ppm preindustrial CO2.00:00 Intro And Agenda00:39 Three Paper Overview04:01 CO2 Rise Not Human07:05 Detrending Spurious Links10:33 Water Vapor Feedback Tested13:19 Solar And Albedo Drivers17:12 Past Evidence SST Leads21:50 Global Temperature Averaging23:58 Key Takeaways And DOE26:04 Why I Wrote These Papers33:06 Ice Core Reconstruction Issues34:17 Closing Thoughts And Q&Ahttps://x.com/info45037254=========Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summariesMy Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1

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