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The Rock and Turner Investment Podcast: Daily Summaries Delivered
by James Emanuel, Rock & Turner Investment Fund
The podcast for the intellectually curious, with analytical minds who like to challenge conventional wisdom.Join us for a deep and open-ended exploration into the often-overlooked facets of investing. The podcast is designed to introduce anyone in the investment community to fresh mental models and unique perspectives, empowering them to navigate the complex investment landscape with greater confidence. Whether they’re a seasoned investor or just starting out, our discussions will equip them with the tools needed to enhance their decision-making and improve their chances of achieving favourable investment outcomes. The podcast will discuss a wide range of subject matter from analyzing individual companies to exploring macro-economics and timeless investment principles. rockandturner.substack.com
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- Jun 22, 202614 min
The Most Mispriced Sector in the Market?
Three Compounding Payments Giants, One Opportunity, All Hiding in Plain SightWhile investors flock to the next shiny thing, currently AI and space related businesses, payments companies with far better unit economics have become unfashionable and are being overlooked.This creates an interesting contrarian investment set up.This podcast provides an introduction to three compelling investment opportunities that every intelligent investor ought to explore.The Three companies in question are Adyen (ADYEN), Wise Group (WSE) and dLocal (DLO). Each sits in a different corner of the payments sector, yet there is overlap between them. Some speculate that ultimately, two or more of these three could join forces to create the most formidable financial operating system on the planet.Enjoy this short 14 minute pocast and, if you are minded to dig deeper on any of these names, plesae see the deep dive analysis below: Get full access to Rock & Turner Investment Analysis at rockandturner.substack.com/subscribe
- Apr 14, 202659 min
Interview: Kinsale Capital CEO, Michael Kehoe
Is Kinsale Capital (KNSL) A Good Investment?Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) is an insurance company with a difference. Since its 2016 IPO, the stock has surged over 2,000%, powered by a staggering 41% EPS CAGR that has left the rest of the industry in the dust.As the only publicly traded pure-play in the Excess & Surplus (E&S) market, Kinsale has carved out a massive advantage by insuring the “hard-to-place” commercial risks that standard carriers are too slow or too rigid to handle.At the heart of this success is a proprietary, browser-based technology platform built from scratch over seven years; a structural moat that allows Kinsale to quote complex risks in hours while legacy competitors often take weeks.By strictly centralizing all operations in a single Richmond, Virginia headquarters and rejecting the industry trend of regional branch offices, founder Michael Kehoe has engineered a high-efficiency machine with a 1,000-basis-point expense advantage over its peers.Kinsale’s strategy is built on radical selectivity: the firm processes nearly a million submissions a year but ultimately binds only about 7% of them. Unlike almost every other major player in the E&S space, Kinsale refuses to delegate underwriting authority to third-party agents (MGAs), keeping every pricing and claims decision in-house to ensure an airtight feedback loop and industry-leading risk selection. This disciplined, data-driven approach has produced a combined ratio consistently in the mid-70s, an “inverse profit margin” that is essentially unparalleled in the property and casualty world.Leading this charge is Michael Kehoe, a visionary owner-operator who founded the company in 2009 amidst the wreckage of the financial crisis and still maintains a significant personal stake today. Inspired by legendary leaders, including Jack Welch and Andy Grove, Kehoe has successfully translated his “hard way” philosophy into a culture of speed and precision, drawing frequent comparisons to insurance success stories like Progressive and GEICO for his ability to gain market share across all phases of the insurance cycle.In this exclusive hour-long interview, we sit down with Kehoe to go inside the “Kinsale Machine.” We explore how the firm maintains its massive performance gap over the industry, the mechanics of its conservative reserving culture, and the roadmap for reaching a double-digit share of the $135 billion E&S market. Whether you are a value investor or a growth seeker, this is a masterclass in how disciplined execution and proprietary tech can turn a “boring” niche into a world-class compounding engine.Receive more like this direct to your inbox:To better understand the E&S Insurance Capital Cycle, please see:For further reading on Kinsale Capital, Rock & Turner analysed the business early in 2025 and then Alexander at Slow Compounding wrote up a 100 page deep dive at the beginning of 2026, both links are below and worth reading: Get full access to Rock & Turner Investment Analysis at rockandturner.substack.com/subscribe
- Feb 23, 202655 min
The Dangerous Game Investors Are Playing
Slowly, the market seems to be waking up to a major issue that the likes of Michael Burry, Warren Buffett and Terry Smith have been warning about for years.The issue was highlighted in a recent article in The Wall Street Journal entitled Meta Rakes It In, Yet Still Borrows Billions for AI.Stock based compensation is not the villain most investors think it is. Used with discipline it conserves cash and can strengthen long term returns.But the problems start when discipline fades.The danger begins when equity issuance becomes so aggressive that companies are compelled to spend billions buying back stock simply to mask the damage being done.Per share numbers look healthy, but the underlying economics tell a different story.Corporate stewardship becomes less about durable compounding and more about financial engineering.These companies are increasingly being run for the benefit of insiders and at the expense of the extrernal investors. The Wall Street Journal summed it up well:“Meta’s employees and executives captured the bulk of the rewards from last year’s free cash flow."Worse still, as the result of nuances in accounting standards, this corporate behaviour is not reliably reflected in the 10-Q or 10-K financial reports. In fact, the true economic earnings and free cash flow of these business become significantly distorted. Both are often far lower in reality than reported figures imply.If investors never adjust for this properly, it leads to flawed valuation models, investments made at the wrong price and asset bubbles.Most investors don’t adjust for this at all. Most don’t understand how to adjust for it.This is what Michael Burry has been shouting about recently. He sees the market as broken with corporate valuations being streched, supported by structural flows and accounting optics rather than fundamentals. It’s why he chose to return capital to his investors and then withdraw from the market.The dynamic described by the Wall Street Journal runs through some of the largest companies in the market. Not only Meta Platforms (META), but also Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), NVIDIA (NVDA), Palantir (PLTR), Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL). All rely heavily on stock based compensation alongside large buyback programs. These are exceptional businesses. But capital allocation matters and it’s not being done well.Only one of the magnificent-7 appears to do things differently: Amazon (AMZN). It’s approach is refreshingly honest and transparent.In “The Dangerous Game Investors Are Playing”, we dive deep into the numbers, we break down how this works, how it distorts valuations, what adjustments serious investors must make to avoid overpaying, and how to protect yourself before the music stops!This episode features Professor Kevin Koharki who holds a B.Sc. (Accounting), M.B.A. (Finance), and Ph.D. (Accounting). He serves as an Associate Professor at Purdue University, where he lectures on financial statement analysis, he is the founder of CAE Consulting, which advises the C-Suite of Fortune 100 companies and he is a keynote speaker.DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURE: The author holds a position in Amazon at the date of publication but that may change. The views expressed are those of the author and his guests and may change without notice. The author and his guests have no duty or obligation to update this information. Some content is sourced from third parties believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Forward-looking statements involve assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, meaning actual outcomes may differ from those envisaged in this analysis. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, including financial loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations of any kind. Conduct your own research and seek professional advice before investing. Get full access to Rock & Turner Investment Analysis at rockandturner.substack.com/subscribe
- Feb 7, 20261h 6m
Kingsway Corporation (CEO Interview)
DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURE: The author holds a position in Kingsway Corporation at the date of publication but that may change. The views expressed are those of the author and may change without notice. The author has no duty or obligation to update this information. Some content is sourced from third parties believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Forward-looking statements involve assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, meaning actual outcomes may differ from those envisaged in this analysis. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, including financial loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations of any kind. Conduct your own research and seek professional advice before investing.This podcast/video interview focuses on a company that almost nobody understands correctly, which is exactly why it’s so interesting.This is not a stock that currently screens well. It’s misunderstood and financial metrics are misleading. So don’t get lost in the numbers. This is a qualitative investment thesis.The business piqued my interest because I am particulalry focused on companies with an opportunity to reinvest capital at high accretive rates of return over the long-term, and which have first class management teams. This one ticked both of those boxes.Here’s what you really need to understand:* ‘Search Funds’ are a niche “entrepreneurship through acquisition” (ETA) model.* Stanford professor Irv Grousbeck (not merely an academic, but successful entrepreneur with a net worth of a couple of billion dollars, and co-owner of NBA Boston Celtics) and Will Thorndike (author of ‘The Outsiders’ book and seasoned investor himself) helped popularise the ETA model.* ETA involves backing talented early-career CEOs (often MBAs) to find, acquire and manage an acquired business.* Acquisitions are private mom-and-pop type lifestyle businesses which are capital light, enjoy recurring revenues and have no customer concentration risk, but which have been operated as lifestyle businesses and starved of growth capital. Without succession plans in place, founders ultimately look to cash out. This generally means that they are available to buy at low single digit multiples.* Investments are typically too small for traditional PE firms, but too complex for individual investors.* In 1994, Thorndike founded Housatonic Partners, a fund focused on the ETA model and he enjoyed enormous success. He has quietly been one of the most significant investors in this model for decades.* Thorndike is on the Advisory Board for the International Search Fund Center at IESE Business School and frequently lectures at Stanford and Harvard.* The Center for Entrepreneurial Studies at Stanford Graduate School of Business conducts biennial studies of all core search funds. Its findings reveal that, since 1984, the ETA model has generated steady IRRs ~35% through various economic cycles.Now that I have your attention, please be aware that until now there have been a few issues with search funds:* The ETA model has, until now, been the preserve of wealthy private investors. Retail and other public market investors had no way to access search funds.* Each search fund focused on the acquisition of one company and so there was a high level of concentration risk.* Without the liquidity of a public market, private investments in search funds require an expiry date so that investors know when to expect a return on their money. This forces short-term thinking and exit decisions at inopportune moments.* Thorndike has conducted his own analysis that many of these search fund businesses have been sold too early and go on to achieve outsized returns over the medium to longer term, meaning too much vaue has been given away historically.The answer to all of these challenges is to create a publicly listed permanent capital vehicle focused on deploying the search fund model, building a diverse portfolio of search fund businesses, owning them for extended periods (maybe even forever) and enabling public market investors access to this asset class for the first time.Kingsway Corporation is the only such business.It is run by CEO JT Fitzgerald, himself a search fund veteran. Will Thorndike is both an investor and a member of the advisory board. And if that hasn’t captured your imagination, so too is Tom Joyce, previously CEO at Danaher and the architect of the acclaimed Danaher Business System (DBS), a version of which Kingsway is deploying itself.In this interview with JT Fizgerald (CEO of Kingsway), we breaking down how Kingsway is using that playbook to build a programmatic acquisition e
- Dec 8, 20251h 15m
Judges Scientific | UK Programmatic Acquirer
Judges Scientific Plc (JDG.L), listed on AIM, has built its entire identity around one thing: a disciplined and highly effective buy-and-build strategy. Over the years, that strategy has turned the company into a respected specialist in high-end, niche scientific instruments: pieces of mission-critical kit used by universities, research labs, manufacturers and regulators around the world.Since its founding in 2002 and its first acquisition in 2005, Judges has become one of the most successful consolidators in a fragmented industry. It targets high-quality businesses with dependable sales, profits and cash flow, and once they’re brought into the group, they benefit from steady operational support and the financial stability of a larger organisation. Their cash generation then fuels debt reduction and funds the next round of acquisitions. It’s a flywheel that has been spinning for two decades, helping the company deliver an impressive 24% compound annual growth rate since its IPO in 2003.But the last 18 months have tested that model in ways investors haven’t seen for years. The share price has fallen more than 50%, not because the strategy has failed, but because several challenges arrived all at once.First, the company’s valuation had simply run too hot. After years of near-flawless execution, the stock was priced for perfection, and that left no room for disappointment. The disappointment came in the form of a major acquisition that didn’t perform as expected in its first year, triggering a profits warning and shaking confidence.Then came external pressures. China shifted its procurement policies in favour of domestic suppliers, creating an abrupt slowdown in demand for Judges’ instruments. Meanwhile, in the US, delays and cuts in federal research budgets put pressure on university spending, squeezing order flow from another key region.And layered on top of all of this was the news that long-standing CEO and founder David Cicurel will step down in February 2026. Any leadership transition naturally results in uncertainty and anxiety among investors.Taken together, it was a perfect storm.Yet storms pass, and in Judges’ case, many of the clouds already appear to be clearing. The valuation multiple is now roughly half its peak, creating a far more reasonable starting point for new investors. The large acquisition that stumbled out of the gate is showing clear signs of recovery in its second year. Chinese demand is beginning to rebound, and US university funding conditions are improving. More particularly, the succession plan looks solid: Cicurel will move into the role of Non-Executive Chairman, while incoming CEO Dr Tim Prestidge, currently Group Business Development Director, offers continuity rather than disruption.Crucially, the earnings power of the business hasn’t deteriorated. If anything, the cadence of acquisitions means its long-term potential is stronger than ever. For some investors, the recent sell-off may look less like a red flag and more like an opportunity.Judges Scientific remains a business with a proven model, a strong culture and a two-decade track record of compounding growth. To dive deeper into the company’s history, challenges and prospects, enjoy this podcast conversation with Chris Waller of Plural Investing, author of the Hidden Gems Substack and a former Goldman Sachs Asset Management professional with an MBA from Columbia Business School. Get full access to Rock & Turner Investment Analysis at rockandturner.substack.com/subscribe
- Nov 18, 20259 min
Sundar Pichai Interview | "Is AI a Bubble?"
In this short 10 minute interview, Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google owner Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), emphasizes the importance, and dangers, of AI.Cautiously optimistic, is the best way to sum up his views. He is realistic as he declares that not even Google is immune if the AI bubble bursts.Well worth a listen. Get full access to Rock & Turner Investment Analysis at rockandturner.substack.com/subscribe
- Oct 15, 202517 min
The Market’s Love Affair with Instant Gratification & The Art of Investor Alignment
Show NotesIn this podcast, we explore the fascinating intersection of psychology and investing — why our brains are wired to crave instant gratification and how that shapes our behaviour, valuations and investment decisions. With reference to the behavioural economics concept of hyperbolic discounting, we explore how this can create excellent trading opportunities. We also examine why the type of shareholders a company attracts can define its destiny, showing that investing isn’t just about picking the right business, it’s about understanding who you are getting into bed with.This 16 minute podcast may help you fine tune your investment approach and improve your returns. Have a listen… nothing to lose!Receive more like this direct to your inbox:TranscriptHave you ever wondered why some companies seem to command absolutely astronomical valuations while others, seemingly just as solid, trade at bargain-basement prices?It’s all about the quirky, often irrational ways our brains process time and money.While traditional finance models rely on neat, orderly exponential discounting, where every future period gets discounted at the same steady rate, the reality of human psychology is far messier and infinitely more interesting.Hyperbolic discounting is a fascinating concept, borrowed from behavioural economics, which helps us better understand how investors think and why equities are priced as they are.Economics has long been dubbed the “imperfect science” for good reason. Human psychology doesn’t follow mathematical formulas and our pricing models need to account for these beautifully irrational behavioural quirks.Consider this scenario: I owe you $10,000 and offer you a deal. Instead of paying you back today, how about I give you $11,000 a year from now? Your gut reaction is almost certainly a firm, “no way.” You want your money now, you want instant gratification. You’ve already planned how you’ll spend that money and it simply can’t wait.Now imagine you have a savings account that can either pay out $10,000 one year from now, or $11,000 in two years. Suddenly, waiting for that extra thousand seems like a no-brainer. The math is identical, a 10% annualized return in both cases, yet your willingness to wait changes dramatically based on proximity to the present moment. Immediate gratification is no longer a factor, it doesn’t cloud your judgement and your decision becomes more rational.This isn’t a flaw in your reasoning; it’s a fundamental feature of human psychology. We systematically undervalue future rewards when immediate gratification is within our reach, but we become surprisingly rational when dealing with future-only scenarios. It’s the same phenomenon that makes you promise to start that diet tomorrow while reaching for another slice of cake today.Our modern world has turned this psychological quirk into a business model. Ever notice how online retailers charge premium prices for next-day delivery? Or how people line up to pay top dollar for the latest iPhone on release day, knowing full well the price will plummet in six months? We’re literally paying extra to pull gratification forward in time and companies have figured out how to monetize our impatience.As Charlie Munger wisely observed, “Investing requires a lot of delayed gratification.” This simple statement captures the essence of why most people struggle with long-term wealth building. We’re wired to want results now, even when waiting would serve us far better.Our trade-off between today and tomorrow is not the same and we value them differently.This impatience epidemic extends far beyond consumer goods. If people were purely logical, wouldn’t they budget carefully, live modestly and secure a comfortable tomorrow? Yet in reality, many drive expensive cars, wear designer clothes and fancy jewelry - all while burdened with ugly debts and barely any savings.We buy things we don’t need, with money we often don’t have, to impress people we don’t even know. It’s not stupidity, it’s human nature in all its gloriously inconsistent beauty. This is where hyperbolic discounting is most valuable. Not as a new valuation methodology, but as a lens for understanding the investor’s relationship with value.When you recognize that most market participants are trapped by their need for instant gratification, you begin to see opportunities everywhere.When a company tells a good story about its future prospects, people buy into that narrative. There’s insufficient attention paid to long-term risk and competitive threats, so distant future cash flows are under-discounted and over valued. This leads to what Alan Greenspan referred to as “over exuberance”, where stock prices become too inflated - as can be seen in the premium on the long tail of the hyperbolic discounting curve.Worse still, most investors ignore t
- Sep 17, 20251h 3m
Fairfax India, The Programmatic Acquirer
This podcast continues our investigative journey on the theme of programmatic and serial acquirers. Links to the other episodes in this series are:* The Secret of Investing in Programmatic Acquirers podcast - [unlocked]* Relais Group investment analysis - [unlocked]* Teqnion - [unlocked]* Fairfax India (podcast/video presentation) - [unlocked]* Topicus - [45 day partial paywall, after which it will be unlocked]* Valuing Programmatic Acquirers* » Watch this space, more to come «Receive future episodes directly to your inbox:This Episode - Gateway to IndiaIndia is proving to be a highly compelling investment opportunity, and its story echoes the economic rise of China, with a massive, young workforce and a fast-growing middle class.The country has also positioned itself as a resilient and rapidly expanding economy, especially during its G20 presidency where it moved from a global participant to a key architect of international cooperation. This strong foundation is supported by significant legal, tax and regulatory reforms, as well as tremendous progress in physical and digital infrastructure.For foreign investors, however, the Indian market can be challenging to navigate due to issues like withholding taxes, restrictions on capital movement and language/cultural barriers. Not only that, but some of the best investment opportunities exist among private businesses rather than the hyped and often overpriced publicly listed companies. So how does a non-Indian investor play this wonderful opportunity?A potential answer is proposed in this podcast which first unpacks why India is so attractive right now, but also focusses on a programmatic acquirer, a holding company named Fairfax India Holdings Corporation ($FIH), listed in Canada, it provides foreign investors with exposure to the dynamic Indian market while bypassing these complexities. Ben Watsa, Chairman of Fairfax India and son of the great investor and entrepreneur Prem Watsa, explains why he likes India right now:As a permanent capital vehicle, it focuses on long-term investments in high-quality Indian businesses, leveraging decades of experience from its hugely successful parent company, Fairfax Financial.In one packaged investment, you and I are able to gain exposure to a portfolio of first class Indian businesses, 70% of which are private, in a range of sectors from banking and finance; transport, logistics and storage services; manufacturing; and most important of all, critical infrastructure.Best of all, while almost all of the top performing programmatic acquirers trade at eye-watering premiums to intrinsic value, this one is a rare exception, available at a discount to its net asset value.Listen to, or watch, the podcast to learn more. The video version - on YouTube and the Rock & Turner Substack has images to accompany the narrative.DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURE: The author has a position in Fairfax India at the time of publication, but that may change. The views expressed are those of the author at the time of publication and may change without notice. The author has no duty or obligation to update this information. Some content is sourced from third parties believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Forward-looking statements involve assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, meaning actual outcomes may differ from those envisaged in this analysis. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, including financial loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations of any kind. Conduct your own research and seek professional advice before investing. Get full access to Rock & Turner Investment Analysis at rockandturner.substack.com/subscribe
About The Rock and Turner Investment Podcast
The podcast for the intellectually curious, with analytical minds who like to challenge conventional wisdom.Join us for a deep and open-ended exploration into the often-overlooked facets of investing. The podcast is designed to introduce anyone in the investment community to fresh mental models and unique perspectives, empowering them to navigate the complex investment landscape with greater confidence. Whether they’re a seasoned investor or just starting out, our discussions will equip them with the tools needed to enhance their decision-making and improve their chances of achieving favourable investment outcomes. The podcast will discuss a wide range of subject matter from analyzing individual companies to exploring macro-economics and timeless investment principles. rockandturner.substack.com
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