10-8-26 Is the Term Premium Misleading the Fed?

Is the Federal Reserve relying on a metric that cannot be reliably measured? Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan recently discussed the role of the Treasury term premium in determining whether rising long-term interest rates are doing some of the Fed's work for it. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine what the term premium actually represents, why different models disagree, and whether policymakers risk putting too much emphasis on an uncertain estimate when setting interest rates. 0:00 - INTRO 0:50 - Earnings Season & Optimistic Guidance 2:10 - Bond Auctions & Interest Rate Dynamics 3:42 - Markets Sitting at all-time highs... 4:38 - Earnings Announcements Should Help Support Markets 5:31 - Election Year Market Performance 8:55 - Commentary on Laurie Logan Commentary 12:33 - What is the Term Premium - Decomposes the Yield 13:49 - Constraints to Yields - What Goes Into a 10-Year Yield (chart) 15:27 - Three Fed Models (chart) Set the Fed up for a Mistake 19:18 - When you buy bonds, you are the lender 22:59 - Why Do We Like Bonds Today? 25:03 - Preview: 5% Bond Yields? 25:53 - Consumer Credit Creation: How Money is Lent into Existence (chart) 28:11 - Consumer Health Index (chart) 32:49 - Shares of Individuals Making Net Withdrawals from Investment Accounts (chart) 35:43 - Should taxes on Bond interest be eliminated? (Tweet) 38:57 - No One is Talking About the US Dollar 41:20 - Why You Should Buy a House now 43:10 - Winter is Coming ==== Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's "Before the Bell" report, "S&P 500 Breakout Fails: What's Next?" https://youtu.be/8xiTUNThkgY ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/qPprFRCSGlg?feature=share -------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: Can the Rally Keep Going?" https://youtube.com/live/G6t8DWj9zTk ------ Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "An Incalculable Concept That Is Misleading The Fed" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/an-incalculable-concept-that-is-misleading-the-fed/ "Two-Month Market Rally: What Comes Next?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/two-month-market-rally-what-comes-next/ ------- REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series presentation, "More Than A Portfolio: Financial Planning PanelL" https://streamyard.com/watch/tCqfFT6bMEBn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SP500 #StockMarket #MarketOutlook #EarningsSeason #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #InterestRates #TermPremium #BondMarket #MonetaryPolicy