10-6-26 Sequence of Returns Risk: The Math That Breaks Retirement

You can earn a solid average return in retirement and still run out of money. The reason may be sequence of returns risk — the danger of suffering significant market losses early in retirement, while simultaneously withdrawing money from your portfolio. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn explain why the order of investment returns matters so much once you transition from saving to spending, and examine the math behind the 4% withdrawal rule, why early retirement losses can be so difficult to recover from, how taxes can increase the effective draw on a portfolio, and why starting market valuations matter. The goal isn't to predict the next bear market. It's to build a retirement plan that can withstand one. 0:00 - INTRO 1:01 - ISM Report & Economy Activity Remain Robust 2:47 - Earnings Expectations & Whisper Numbers: Plenty of Room for Disappointment 4:09 - Why We Rebalanced on Monday 5:44 - We're on the Cusp of a Breakout to new, all-time highs 7:33 - Oil Prices & Interest Rates 10:35 - Metallica, Wiggles, & How Far Could Kids Go 16:40 - Sequence of returns math (risk): What it is 19:31 - The Generation That's Never Seen a Secular Cycle 21:40 - The Order Decides Everything (chart) 24:22 - What Valuations Mean (chart) 28:33 - Surviving Bear Markets & the Math of Recovery (chart) 33:00 - Interest Rate Factors 33:45 - Factoring for the Tax Man (chart) & Diversification of Accounts 37:38 - [CHAT] Is it too late to start a Roth at Age 60? (no) 40:25 - Summary - What to do next 44:26 - Having Multiple Income Streams in Retirement 45:43 - [CHAT] On the Run T-Bills or Off-the Run? ==== Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's "Before the Bell" report, "S&P 500 Breakout: Can New Highs Hold?" https://youtu.be/EBGstKJIJWo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/yUsBTHvqAsE?feature=share -------- Watch our previous show, "Q4 Market Outlook: Will Strong Markets Finish Strong?" https://youtube.com/live/_eYgx-MHUvI?feature=share ------ Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Sequence Of Return Risk: The Math That Breaks Retirements" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/sequence-of-return-risk-the-math-that-breaks-retirements/ "From TINA To TIGA: Diversification Pays Again" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/from-tina-to-tiga-diversification-pays-again/ ------- REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series presentation, "More Than A Portfolio: Financial Planning PanelL" https://streamyard.com/watch/tCqfFT6bMEBn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SP500 #StockMarket #NASDAQ #EarningsSeason #MarketOutlook #RetirementPlanning #SequenceOfReturnsRisk #RetirementIncome #4PercentRule #InvestmentRisk