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by Dominic Frisby
Readings of brilliant articles from the Flying Frisby. Occasional super-fascinating interviews. Market commentary, investment ideas, alternative health, some social commentary and more, all with a massive libertarian bias.
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I was on a panel with veteran geologist Brent Cook earlier in the week and something he said rather struck me.“It’s shaping up to be a brutal summer for mining companies.”Brent CookLooking at the chart below, it’s hard to disagree.The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index has fallen to zero.Not 5 or 10, but zero. That’s lower in the in the crash of 2008 and during the Covid panic. It has only ever reached this level during the darkest days of the great gold bear market of 2011-16, and even then only twice.This chart measures the percentage of gold mining stocks that are on Point & Figure buy signals. If every stock is on a buy signal, the reading is 100. If none are, the reading is zero.A reading of zero does not mean prices cannot fall further, only that not a single stock in the index is in a technical uptrend.Readings like this only occur at moments of extreme pessimism. But what makes today’s reading so unusual is the backdrop.In 2008, everything was crashing. In 2013 and 2015, gold itself was in a vicious bear market. During the Covid panic everything was crashing. Today, gold’s above $4,000; silver’s above $60.The fundamentals for higher prices - central bank buying, irretrievable government spending and, in the case of silver, industrial demand - remain. Yet the mining shares are in the swanny.And these are monthly charts. Such extremes take time to develop. Daily and weekly indicators can hit zero fairly easily. Monthly indicators rarely do.This is an extraordinary breadth washout. Why is it happening?Inflation (in the true meaning of the word)When gold and silver went bananas late last year and early this, mining companies took advantage of the frenzy, as they always do, to raise capital. Bucket loads were raised.Typically in Canada there is a four-month hold after a capital raise. It means that capital raised in January, for example, only came free trading last month and capital raised in February is only coming free trading now.Somebody has to buy all that paper, and, if they don’t, prices fall until somebody does buy it.Add that to the broader decline in the underlying metals prices, especially gold and silver, and you can see why junior mining is having such a rough time of it, and why Brent thinks things are going to get brutal.Too much paper.Not enough people to buy it.The sector simply needs time to digest all that paper. Another leg higher in gold and silver would increase buying, but for now money is flowing in the opposite direction.Such extremes can prove excellent buying opportunities - though if you bought the 2013 dip you had a wait on your hands - but we have all this paper to get through.Many miners are terrible businesses, years from any cashflow. Costs, especially energy, have risen. Dilution is relentless.The bear case is that mining stocks are warning us that gold and silver are headed lower.On the other hand, the economics of mining have changed with gold and silver this high. Producers should make a lot of money. They will need to replenish lost ounces. The value of deposits has changed. Previously uneconomic mines start to look viable. The value of genuine new discoveries is immense.The bull case is that miners are pricing a disaster that doesn’t come. Gold and silver stabilise, the financing overhang eventually clears and the sector re-rates sharply higher. We are near capitulation.With a BPI reading of zero, one thing is certain: the sector is not over-owned.Given that June typically sees the low for the year in gold and silver, I favour the bull case. But the summer is always weak. We might have a while to wait if my ongoing thesis that gold and silver range trade for a year proves true.This is not 2011-16.It’s a mid-cycle correction.The question is not so much whether the sector is hated or not. The chart tells us it is. The question is how much longer investors can stay this pessimistic if gold remains above $4,000 and silver above $60.Lifetime subscription prices go up tomorrow and other mattersTurning to other matters, here is this week’s commentary in case you missed it:And a reminder that you have one more day to buy a Lifetime Subscription before prices go up. The current price is £550 until tomorrow. It then rises to £650 before being permanently withdrawn on 30 June.If you’ve been considering Lifetime Membership, this is your last chance.Two NBs* If you are looking to upgrade and have trouble with payments, please drop me a line (either reply to this email or message me). I need to cancel your membership, issue a refund and then you need to resubscribe.* Despite what the sign-up process says, this is a genuine one-off payment for lifetime access. I manually convert memberships
Imagine you are in the circus, watching a tightrope walker who’s been on the sauce.He sways, the crowd gasps, he sways again, more gasps, and yet somehow he doesn’t fall. This goes on and on and eventually you get bored watching. That, it seems to me, is Britain.Public debt is now knocking on £3 trillion. (Remember you could have spent a million pounds every day since Jesus was born and still not have spent a trillion - that’s how incomprehensible a sum a trillion is). Interest payments now run at over £110 billion a year - more than we spend on education. Debt-to-GDP hovers around 100%. Growth is wilted. Productivity is like blancmange. Taxes are everywhere and record-breaking. Waste and bloat and bureaucracy are rampant.But the political response to every problem is the same: spend more.Despite all of this, like our inebriated tight rope walker, sterling refuses to drop. The pound trades around $1.35. The gilt market continues to function. The bond vigilantes, whoever these mystical people are, appear to be away at lunch with Lord Lucan..Why?The answer begins with a simple but often overlooked fact that currencies are not valued absolutely, but relatively.You look at Britain’s fiscal position and conclude the pound must fall, but against what?It’s not like the US isn’t running unthinkable deficits. Interest payments are exploding there too. The eurozone is if anything more trapped in low growth than we are. Japan’s debt burden is legendary. Never mind the oil, Canada is a basket case. Australian regulation is doing its best to revive the traditions of the penal colony and China has its own economic and demographic headaches.All currencies are crapThen there are interest rates. Britain still offers relatively attractive yields. Ten-year gilts yield around 5%. That may be painful for the Chancellor, whatever her name is, but it is attractive to those looking for income. Japan, the US and most of Europe offer less. Higher interest rates support the pound. They attract computerised capital from around the world, which buys sterling to get the yield.London remains a financial centre, albeit it one in over-regulated decline. There is still some rule of law and some respect for property rights. The UK is not yet Zimbabwe, Turkey or Venezuela, even if it may feel that way. A country can be badly governed for a surprisingly long time before capital completely loses confidence.However, none of the underlying problems have actually been fixed, nor are they going to be fixed. We are still spending £48,000 per household through the state. You’ll get greater productivity out of a plate of blancmange. Taxes are not coming down. We are locked in promise, spend, borrow, tax, repeat.Here’s another possibility. The tightrope walker may never fall off. But with each step, the tightrope itself gets closer to the ground.The pound has lost over 40% of its purchasing power just since 2020. In 2007 a pound cost $2.10, so we are down a third against another unit which in itself is hopeless. Measured against the constant that is gold, the pound has fallen over 95% since the Gordon Brown sales of 1999.Here are those declines visualised.The framing is all wrong. The collapse is not sudden but ongoing. Maybe we don’t get a dramatic crisis. No Black Wednesday, no run on the pound, no emergency press conference outside the Bank of England or wheelbarrows full of digital bank notes. Just more of this relentless decline. Every year a bit more debt, a bit more printing, a bit more inflation, another 7% loss of purchasing power, a bit more government spending, a bit more taxation, year after year, decade after decade. The tightrope gets lower and lower but nobody notices because we are all looking at the walker.Alf Ramsay was on £4,500 a year. Thomas Tuchel gets £5 million. That didn’t happen over night. It was cumulative, incremental and compounded. The endgame remains debasementNot just in the UK but everywhere. In a democracy where politicians need votes they will ALWAYS choose inflation over austerity, spending over restraint and dilution over default. This is built in. The incentives are too powerful. They will sacrifice the currency to preserve the system.Nothing changes until the system itself changes.Perhaps the tightrope walker never falls. But the rope keeps inching lower and lower until one day it is running along the ground.The crowd applauds because there was no crash. Meanwhile the currency has lost another 98% of its value.That is where this is going, gradually but relentlessly. Not with a bang, but with a long, slow debasement.Sterling has been “collapsing” for decades, and it will “collapse’ for many decades more, likewise dollars and euros and yen.The debasement of currency is not a new thing, though we hav
Hello,A quick note about The Flying Frisby.For several years I’ve offered a Lifetime Membership. The idea was simple: make a one-off payment and never have to think about subscription renewals again.A surprising number of readers have taken me up on it.However, I’ve decided to withdraw that offer permanently at the end of June.The timetable is as follows:• Lifetime Membership remains available at £550 until midnight on 15 June.• From 16 June, the price rises to £650.• At midnight on 30 June, Lifetime Membership will be withdrawn permanently.Until then, it remains available for a one-off payment.To be absolutely clear, this is a genuine ONE-OFF payment for lifetime access.Substack displays it as an annual subscription when you sign up. Once you have subscribed, I manually convert your account to Lifetime Membership myself.If you encounter any problems at all, simply reply to this email, or message me on the Substack app, and I’ll sort it out personally.If you've been considering it, this is the final opportunity. Once the deadline passes, the only subscription options will be monthly and annual membership.If you’re already a Lifetime Member, congratulations. You’ve locked in access for life and nothing changes.The Flying Frisby has been going for many years now. Thousands of articles, podcasts, a few videos, some bad jokes and more than a few good investment ideas.All the best,Dominic This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe
Let’s start with a quick market update after Friday’s brutal actionThe last few days have not been pleasant for owners of gold, silver, miners or indeed bitcoin. Friday saw on 8% fall in silver. How January’s euphoria has reversed. That’s silver for you. My ongoing thesis that gold, silver et al go nowhere for a year remains in place. The structural backdrop for gold’s bull market also remains: growing government debt, huge fiscal deficits, ongoing central bank accumulation, de-dollarisation. But the heat needed to come out of the market, and now it is doing just that.Silver I’m less certain about, as per usual. Its monetary role is largely gone, but if/when gold gets going again, silver will get pulled higher. Industrial demand remains robust. A year ago if you’d said silver will be $68 yet silver investors will be despairing, you’d have been laughed at.That said, I think it probably needs to go back and retest $50 before this correction is done.Miners will follow the metal. But it’s important to remember they are effectively leveraged financing vehicles. When risk appetite disappears, they get destroyed almost regardless of geology, though the good ones will come back.In commodity bull markets, investors usually lose money by selling the bottom, sometimes through despair, sometimes because too much leverage forces them to. I still lean toward “structural bull market, cyclical correction”. Though correction is perhaps to light a term when 50-80% of junior mining market caps get wiped out. The sector is not for the faint hearted, though we all love it when it goes up. Remember the great Shelby Davis quote, “You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time”.I need to conduct a proper bear market portfolio review, which I shall do very soon.As for bitcoin, its correction looks dramatic, but in percentage terms it remains fairly normal by bitcoin standards. I covered it in this week’s commentary:A quick housekeeping noteI’ve decided to withdraw Lifetime Membership to The Flying Frisby at the end of June.The current price is £550 until 15 June. It then rises to £650 before being withdrawn permanently on 30 June.To be clear, despite what the sign-up process says, this is a genuine ONE-OFF payment for lifetime access. I manually convert memberships myself.If you’ve been considering Lifetime Membership, this is the final opportunity.Any problems, please message me on Substack or reply to this email.Finally, this week I appeared on the Grant Williams podcast, talking about the book. Feedback has been really good. Grant is one of the best interviewers out there and I really enjoyed it.Thank you for being a subscriber to the Flying Frisby.Until next time,Dominic This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI was going to write about money transfer company Wise (WISE.L/WSE.US) this week.The company recently listed on the Nasdaq, demoting its London listing to secondary, and the prospects looked rosy. UK-listed companies trade at lower valuations because they are listed in the UK. America not only has greater depths of capital, it values tech, growth and success. In the UK they get ignored, taxed or regulated - or all three.And there is another thing. Have you ever tried being an American and sending money abroad? Boy, is it tiresome. And slow, and bureaucratic, and expensive. Wise solves a genuine problem of cross-border payments and solves it well. Its user base was therefore growing. Meanwhile, its infrastructure is increasingly becoming embedded throughout the banking system itself, the plumbing behind international payments.But then on Monday Belgium announced it was investigating Wise, as it suspected the company is “used by criminals to launder the proceeds of fraud, corruption and drug trafficking”, and the stock promptly sank 15%.I have little doubt that Wise, like Revolut and every other payments platform, is used for money laundering, just as Facebook is used for hate speech, and WhatsApp to deal drugs. Money itself is used for money-laundering. Banks are used for money laundering. The stock market is used for money laundering. Cash is used for money laundering too. I guess, the question is whether the company is guilty of “non-compliance with anti-money laundering legislation”.Maybe it turns out to be procedural and manageable - the rebound in the stock suggests that is the case. Maybe it becomes something more serious. We shall see - and I shall probably wait before committing my precious capital. How long will I wait? Not sure. These kinds of investigations have a tendency to drag on.But the episode brings me to why bitcoin was invented int he first place, and this week I have had several worried messages about it. Do I still like it? And, more importantly. WTF is going on?As I’m sure you know, the price has fallen quite sharply.On one of my investor WhatsApp groups, which has some smart people, many are asking if it really is game over for bitcoin. “Does ANYONE have a good document about the actual use cases of bitcoin?” asked one. “I simply don’t see the point. I see a 15-year track record of promises that it will change the world but with zero actual use cases in my life.”Somebody else chimed in, “The world is changing meaningfully with AI, chips, oil, geopolitics, rare earths, gold, silver etc. I’m just not sure bitcoin fits”These observations are quite valid. What’s it for? You just need to look at the price to see it isn’t a hedge against inflation. Nobody uses it for micropayments. It hasn’t solved financial exclusion in the Third World. It’s not private. It’s not used as a day-to-day medium of exchange. It hasn’t replaced fiat. It hasn’t fixed any of things it was supposed to fix. Quantum computing’s going to take it out. What’s the point?Remember: narrative follows price. Not the other way round. Bear markets are vicious. They grind you down psychologically. They make you doubt the underlying asset itself. So let’s address that question. W hat is the point of bitcoin?
Following on from last week’s piece about the extent to which I use AI, I’ve had a surprising number of messages asking which AI I actually use and what for.I should immediately stress that I am not some sort of AI guru. I know people use Claude to write code, automate businesses and build entire internal operating systems. That is beyond me. I can’t code. I’m a one-man band, who occasionally hires freelancers. I’m self-taught. But here’s what I actually use and what for.I stress the best method of all is trial and error. You get results quickly. If you don’t get what you’re looking for, adjust the prompt, or try a different app.Let’s start with the visual stuff.Pretty much every image accompanying my articles, such as the one above, is generated on Midjourney. I’ve experimented with ChatGPT, Grok and other image generators, but I like Midjourney’s images the most. My prompt is often just the article title plus the aspect ratio. Four options appear. I pick the best one.That alone would have seemed miraculous ten years ago.I also use Midjourney extensively for music videos. For example, in this video about the lighter side of hyperinflationary collapse, almost every visual was AI-generated from the lyrics. My editor, Goat, then used Runway to animate the images. We filmed my face against a green screen and plonked it on top afterwards.If Midjourney didn’t produce what I had in mind, I simply kept adjusting the prompt until it did, or I tried another image generator as a last resortEven as recently as five years ago, let alone twenty, to make a video like this would have cost hundreds of thousands, millions even, and taken many months. We would have needed teams of animators, post production specialists, Soho studio space and lord knows what else. That, to my mind, is the genuinely revolutionary part of AI. Democratisation of media and all of that.But on top of it all you still need someone - in this case my editor Goat - who knows what they’re doing.People often argue that AI ia replacing creativity. What it is actually doing, at least in my case, is dramatically lowering the cost of production and making creativity available to all. The possibilities for creative littlemen like me are enormous. I made this video using Grok and Neural FramesAnd this one was generated entirely in Neural FramesIronically, we used no AI in the music itself. We edited the videos either in Capcut or FinalCut.By the way, if you enjoy these videos, the first place I upload them is at my comedy Substack, so sign up to that. It’s free.Writing, research, advice and moreThis next video, about the most prolific slaving civilisations in history, generated millions of views across social media, and became the most viewed page on this Substack. It is an interesting case.Not because of the images themselves, which were generated with Midjourney, but because of the research. AI couldn’t and in some cases wouldn’t do it. Claude flat out refused because of the subject matter. It would not engage. (IN other words it is biased). ChatGPT couldn’t get its head round what I was trying to do. Grok came closest but in the end I worked with a human researcher, Sam, who I knew from my book, who turned out to be much better.I have paid subscriptions to Claude, ChatGPT, Grok and Venice. I cooled somewhat on Claude after the slavery episode. Around the same time I was in a nasty dispute with three former business colleagues and needed some help. Claude kept getting hysterical and calling on me to speak to a lawyer, which I didn’t have the time or budget to do, whereas ChatGPT gave the me the help I was looking for. So between the two episodes Claude has been rather demoted in my office, though I still use it as a sounding board for anything to do with writing - where it is strong - if I want a second or third opinion. I get that the experts think Claude is the boss, but for me it is too captured. ChatGPT has replaced it as my primary all-rounder.In general terms, ChatGPT is the most user-friendly though you have to go into the settings and tell it to stop being sycophantic, as that just gets annoying. (They are all as bad as each other for sycophancy).I’ll use them all for brainstorming, proofreading, titles, summarising transcripts, challenging arguments, evaluating, drafting legal docs and agreements,
Following my recent pieces on Namibia, several readers got in touch asking pretty much the same question: Fine. But how do you actually invest there?Frontier markets are notoriously difficult to access. Interesting companies are privately owned, illiquid, unlisted or buried on obscure exchanges your broker has never heard of, or they carry their own small company risk that does not reflect the broader themes of the country.To try and answer the question properly, I spoke to economist Rowland Brown, founder of Cirrus Capital, the country’s largest stockbroker, to discuss the best ways to invest in Namibia and where he sees the biggest opportunities.The full interview follows, but here are 7 things that stood out to me.1. Namibia’s growth could accelerate dramaticallyNamibia has averaged around 4.5% annual growth since independence in 1990. But Brown thinks the next decade could look very different. The reason is oil.Offshore discoveries by majors such as Shell plc and TotalEnergies could transform the country’s fiscal position. Brown estimates that production of 450,000 barrels per day by 2030 could increase government revenues by roughly 60%, which is quite frankly an astonishing number.Namibia today has a population of roughly 3 million people. It is rich in uranium, diamonds, copper, gold and fisheries. Add large-scale oil production and the country starts to look strategically very important.2. The banks are surprisingly attractiveOne thing I had not appreciated before speaking to Brown was how profitable Namibian banks are. According to him, the major listed banks are producing returns on equity of roughly 20-30%, while trading on earnings multiples of only four to five times.The problem is that these banks are listed only on the Namibian Stock Exchange, meaning overseas investors generally need a local broker to access them.The main players include Standard Bank Namibia, First National Bank Namibia and Capricorn GroupBrown is particularly positive on Standard Bank Namibia because of its positioning for both the uranium and oil industries. Chinese involvement in Namibian uranium mining has also strengthened relationships and financing channels there.3. But there is also a way to buy Namibian government debtThis was another thing I did not know. There is an exchange traded Namibian government bond index called STXNAM, tradable in Johannesburg.Namibian government debt currently yields around 12%, while inflation is around 3%, according to Brown.That obviously comes with frontier-market risk, but Namibia’s debt position is arguably stronger than many developed countries. Roughly 80% of the debt is domestically owned, largely by pension funds and banks.Unlike other countries I could mention, Namibia has not yet completely financialised itself into oblivion. Ahem.If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.4. Uranium remains one of the biggest long-term themesNamibia is already the world’s third-largest uranium producer - a lot of that uranium is at the margin. China has a role to play in this. Chinese investors came into Namibian uranium aggressively after Fukushima , when uranium prices were deeply depressed and western capital had largely disappeared.With uranium prices having recovered, those investments are working. We discussed various companies operating in Namibia including Paladin and Deep Yellow, the problem is that many of them are multi-jurisdictional, so you don’t get the pure country play. ASX-listed Bannerman Energy (ASX:BMN) is the closest to being a near-pure Namibia uranium play.5. Oil exposure is harder than you thinkAs with uranium, the oil frustration is that the obvious opportunities are often buried inside giant conglomerates.Brown mentioned Sintana Energy (SEI.V), Hosken Consolidated Investments (HCI), which holds
My youngest daughter, who is supremely intelligent, refuses to use AI. She doesn’t want it plagiarising her, she says, and she doesn’t want her mind to get lazy. She’s currently taking her finals at Cambridge, where, she tells me, almost everybody is using it for everything. But she won’t. And good for her.Another friend won’t touch it either, because she is so fiercely protective of her privacy and doesn’t like AI and social media having so much access to our inner lives. But these people are exceptions. Almost everyone I know is now using AI constantly.I am a prime offender.I use it to make trivial decisions. I get it to draft emails and messages that are too sapping to write myself. I’ve used it to draft contracts that would otherwise have cost me thousands in legal fees. I use it to summarise research papers and articles, evaluate investments, plan trips and organise logistics. It’s a great sounding board. It helps me proof read these articles, does the pics and writes all the SEO stuff I can’t pretend to understand.It is my personal trainer, and tells me what exercises to do. Yesterday I got it to analyse my body fat from a photograph. I’ve even had it analyse my stools.Last year (and the year before, and the year before that), I was stuck in a toxic relationship I couldn’t seem to break out of, even after we separated. At one point I thought I was going mad. I eventually uploaded our entire WhatsApp exchanges into AI and asked it to tell me WTF was going on. I discovered I have “fixer bias” she was an “anxious attachment avoidant”, or something like that, and the combination of the two types is highly toxic and addictive. Finally, I understood why I couldn’t break out of the loop, and what I now had to do to move on.My mother uses it non-stop as well, and it has become a brilliant companion to her.My son and daughter-in-law, both of whom I live with, constantly take the mickey out of me because I’ve become so dependent on it.One of my faults, and there are many, has always been that I give my power away too easily, especially in negotiation. I worry too much about upsetting people or creating friction. Using AI has helped me phrase things, removed my stupid ego from the conversation, helped establish boundaries, not made me look needy or arrogant, stopped me saying the wrong thing to the wrong person at the wrong moment. As a result I have closed several deals and opportunities over the past year that I simply wouldn't have managed previously. I wouldn't have known what to say. I would have held back, worried about rubbing someone up the wrong way. Instead, everyone walked away happy.But it’s not just me. I’ve noticed many others doing it too. When I travelled to Namibia recently, the trip was logistically complex. I spoke to the travel agent almost every other day. Being lazy, I got AI to write my messages to her, but I saw she was doing it back to me. I knew what she was doing and she probably knew what I was doing. It didn’t matter, the important thing was the trip. Neither of our egos got in the way, and the trip went without a hitch.Which got me thinking.Never mind the looming political and financial crises, or the various civilisational catastrophes currently unfolding, at grassroots level, something quietly significant is happening: more and more people are using AI to advise, negotiate, communicate and make decisions. Outcomes are improving as a result.If more and more people consistently make better decisions, the cumulative effect of all these better outcomes will be enormous. Better decisions, better communication, fewer conflicts, fewer bad deals, fewer toxic relationships dragged out past their natural end. The incremental gains, multiplied across enough people, look genuinely civilisational.Subscribe to this amazing publication.The really profound shift is not that AI writes emails, and makes you generally more productive. We have always “outsourced” cognition. Writing outsourced memory. Calculators outsourced maths. SatNavs outsourced navigation. AI is outsourcing judgement itself.I was actually considering reaching out to somebody recently. AI advised me not to, and when it explained why, I realised it was right. Contacting them would have been selfish and unfair.Now, obviously, there are downsides.By relying on AI, parts of the brain undoubtedly atrophy. I used to remember phone numbers effortlessly. Now I barely know anybody’s number because my phone remembers for me. The same thing happened with memory generally. Human beings once had extraordinary recall because they had to memorise stories, events and oral histories. Writing killed that. I had a good sense of direction, which I barely tap now I have Google Maps et al. AI will also increase manipulation, cowardice and passivity. As individuals we become weaker and dependent. Eyesight
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Readings of brilliant articles from the Flying Frisby. Occasional super-fascinating interviews. Market commentary, investment ideas, alternative health, some social commentary and more, all with a massive libertarian bias.
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