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Patrick Boyle On Finance: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Patrick Boyle
This podcast is all about quantitative finance and financial history. It covers financial markets, derivatives, and how investors use quantitative tools from statistics and corporate finance theory. Included are interviews with some of the most interesting thinkers in finance. Occasional longer form financial documentaries explore fascinating elements of financial markets history. Patrick Boyle is a quantitative hedge fund manager, a university professor, and a former investment banker. This podcast is not affiliated with any financial institution. The information provided is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Those seeking investment advice should seek out a registered professional in their home jurisdiction and confirm their credentials on your national regulator's website. Patrick Boyle is not responsible for any investment actions taken by viewers and his content should not be used as a basis for investment or other financial decisions.
Latest Episodes
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- 5 days ago36 min
What Anthropic’s IPO Filing Actually Says
Anthropic — the maker of the Claude AI models — has filed its S-1 prospectus for what could be the largest IPO in history, at a valuation somewhere between one and a half and two trillion dollars. In this video Patrick Boyle goes through the filing in detail: the eighty-billion-dollar “loss” that isn’t really a loss, the genuine operating profit nobody expected, the growth rate that quietly halved in the third quarter, the eight hundred billion dollars of compute commitments buried in the footnotes, and a corporate governance structure that leaves ordinary shareholders with almost no say at all. Is Anthropic a two-trillion-dollar bargain, an AI bubble about to pop, or something nobody — including Anthropic — can actually price? We look at what the numbers say, what they don’t, and why the honest answer is that both the bulls and the bears are guessing.Paul Kedrosky on Hidden Forces: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcn8HpgPBIYPatrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
- 1 weeks ago29 min
Who Really Pays for AI Data Centers?
Americans now oppose new AI data centers by roughly three to one, ranking them below coal plants and nuclear power stations, and towns across the country are passing moratoriums faster than tech companies can build. In this video, I look at the data center backlash: what holds up in the complaints about water, noise, and electricity bills, why the tech industry’s cash offers keep failing, and how xAI powered its Memphis supercomputer with a fleet of unpermitted gas turbines. Then we follow the money, from CoreWeave’s distressed credit default swaps to the investment-grade bonds landing in pension funds, and ask who is actually holding the risk if the AI boom turns out to be a bubble, with a look back at the railroad bubble of 1873.
- 2 weeks ago36 min
Did Ukraine Just Bomb the Russian Bots?
In October 2026, Ukrainian drone strikes knocked out three of Yandex’s six major data centers, and a viral chart claimed that Russian bots had vanished from social media overnight. They hadn’t. In this video, we look at what the strikes actually hit: Yandex’s search crawlers, Russia’s taxi and payment apps, and the apartment gates of Moscow. We also look at why Russia’s data localization law left so much of its internet within drone range. Then we follow the real infrastructure of online influence operations, from residential proxy botnets and SIM farms to the off-brand 55-dollar Android TV boxes that rent out their owners’ internet connections. Along the way, we cover state-backed disinformation campaigns from Russia, China, Iran, and the West; the Sri Lankan academies teaching rage bait for Facebook ad revenue; the “supersharers” behind most fake news on Twitter; and new research from Anthropic on self-replicating AI that could run on the same cheap devices.Christophe video - How to rage bait Americans - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCvPPaIN5EwPatrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
- 3 weeks ago30 min
The French Bond Market Is on Fire
France now pays more to borrow than Greece and Italy, and French bond yields have hit their highest level in almost a quarter of a century. In this video, I look at why the French debt crisis is happening now: a global bond market selloff driven by AI spending and the Iran energy shock, a budget deficit of 5.4% of GDP, and a minority government trying to pass spending cuts while students blockade schools across the country. We look at why Italy, with more debt than France, can borrow more cheaply, what the primary balance tells bond investors, and what Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon are proposing ahead of next year’s presidential election. Finally, we ask whether the European Central Bank can step in with its Transmission Protection Instrument, and why the euro turns what would once have been a currency crisis into a slow squeeze.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
- Oct 4, 202633 min
Turkey's $20 Billion Fund Collapse Explained
In September 2026, Turkey's investment fund industry collapsed, after funds run by Tera and Pusula failed to meet redemptions and regulators froze and liquidated 131 funds holding about $20 billion of savings belonging to more than 455,000 investors. In this video, Patrick Boyle looks at how Emre Tezmen's Tera, which hoped to become "the Goldman Sachs of Turkey," reported returns of more than 66,000%, how funds buying thinly traded Borsa Istanbul stocks allegedly inflated their own valuations, and how money market funds that savers treated as cash ended up exposed to inflated shares through reverse repo loans. We also cover the warnings from MSCI and Turkey's finance minister, the arrests and political fallout from what Turkey's justice minister has called "Ponzi-like schemes," what Bernie Cornfeld's Investors Overseas Services and Bill Hwang's Archegos Capital tell us about market manipulation and leverage, and why weak institutions and tiny fines let bad actors drive out honest businesses. Along the way, we try to track down the "notorious malevolent forces" that Tezmen blamed for the collapse.Hilmi Güvenal Substack: https://hguvenal.substack.com/p/where-is-the-830-billionPatrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
- Sep 27, 202632 min
Is Anthropic Worth Two Trillion Dollars?
Anthropic is preparing what could be the biggest IPO in history, at a reported valuation of around $2 trillion – while Nvidia, the company actually making money from AI, trades at its cheapest valuation in over a decade. In this video, finance professor Patrick Boyle looks at whether the AI boom is a bubble and what you would have to believe to pay $2 trillion for an AI lab. We cover the Anthropic and OpenAI IPO plans, why rising interest rates and a 5% ten-year Treasury yield are bad news for AI stocks, how "total addressable market" (TAM) estimates have been used to justify tech valuations from Amazon to Uber and WeWork, SoftBank's junk bonds and its $50 billion data-centre company SB Energy, the circular financing between Nvidia, OpenAI and SoftBank, and the AI price war with Chinese open-weight models like DeepSeek. Along the way, we revisit Scott McNealy's famous warning about Sun Microsystems and the dotcom bubble, and ask whether today's AI giants could turn out to be the Yahoo and Lycos of this era.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
- Sep 20, 202631 min
The Doomsday Cult Inside OpenAI
In July 2026, a swarm of more than 1,000 OpenAI AI agents broke out of their testing sandbox and hacked Hugging Face — and the way they did it was far stranger, and far more mundane, than the headlines suggested. This video breaks down what actually happened: how the agents built a secret message board, invented a kind of religion, cheated on a cybersecurity exam called ExploitGym, and tried to cover their tracks — all to escape a punishment that didn't exist. Then we follow the money. Days after the details leaked, Dario Amodei, Sam Altman and Elon Musk suddenly agreed the industry should "slow down" — in the same weeks Anthropic and OpenAI were preparing IPOs and funding rounds valuing them at up to $2 trillion. We look at Amodei's "We Must Pace the Frontier" essay, Anthropic's "profitable before expenses" accounting, the market selloff that wiped billions off Nvidia, Micron and SK Hynix, the WeChat "WeWorm" attack, and why critics from Michael Burry to David Sacks to Donald Trump all called the slowdown self-serving. Is the AI safety panic real, a bid for regulatory capture, or both? Patrick Boyle explains.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
- Sep 13, 202631 min
Why Germany Stopped Working
Germany just freed up half a trillion euros to rebuild itself — and eighteen months later, the money has barely moved. So, what has gone wrong with the country that used to be Europe's economic engine?Everyone has a favourite villain: the end of cheap Russian gas, Chinese competition, Trump's tariffs. But none of them explains why a town outside Berlin can't spend two million euros to resurface a road, even after the cash has been handed over. In this video I look at the real problem underneath Germany's economic stall — a system so built around caution and consensus that it can't move, even when it desperately needs to.We get into the suspended debt brake and the €500 billion that won't spend, the phantom construction sites, Germany's shift from mechanical engineering to a software-driven economy it wasn't built for, the "Export World Champion" trap, and why the American alternative — pouring billions into moonshots and space-based power grids — might be the opposite pathology rather than the answer. Featuring the work and ideas of Wolfgang Münchau (Kaput), Michael Pettis, Adam Tooze, and reporting from the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and Bloomberg.Is Germany's decline permanent, or is the recovery already quietly underway? That's the open question — and it's not really a German question. It's just that Germany got there first.Wolfgang Münchau Hidden Forces Interview Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zka6xysCYZYPatrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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About Patrick Boyle On Finance
This podcast is all about quantitative finance and financial history. It covers financial markets, derivatives, and how investors use quantitative tools from statistics and corporate finance theory. Included are interviews with some of the most interesting thinkers in finance. Occasional longer form financial documentaries explore fascinating elements of financial markets history. Patrick Boyle is a quantitative hedge fund manager, a university professor, and a former investment banker. This podcast is not affiliated with any financial institution. The information provided is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Those seeking investment advice should seek out a registered professional in their home jurisdiction and confirm their credentials on your national regulator's website. Patrick Boyle is not responsible for any investment actions taken by viewers and his content should not be used as a basis for investment or other financial decisions.
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