Free Daily Podcast Summary
The Event Horizon Podcast: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Dustin Gouker
A podcast about the nascent prediction markets industry, including news, analysis and legal insights at Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and beyond. Produced and hosted by Dustin Gouker.
Latest Episodes
The most recent episodes — sign up to get AI-powered summaries of each one.
- 6 days ago57 min
Episode 32: Talking Prediction Market Enforcement With Kalshi’s Robert DeNault
Kalshi Head of Enforcement Robert DeNault joined me to talk about how investigations and enforcement work in prediction markets.Danieli O’Boyle of InGame returns to break down all the latest news in prediction markets, including a deluge of advertising deals.Show notes:Kalshi on recent enforcement actionsNovig and Sydney SweeneyDraftKings ads directly referring to KalshiSports is still pretty big! NFL letter to prediction marketsIf you trade on sports and event exchanges, you need EDGE Boost — the financial platform built specifically for players. Sign up and you get an EDGE Boost Visa® debit card, physical and digital with no monthly or yearly usage fees. Access your funds outside banking hours with Instant Deposits 24/7/365. Daily Deposit Limits Up To $5M per transaction, and up to $50M per day, giving you easier/faster access to YOUR capital, subject to eligibility and account review. Plus earn up to 0.5% cashback on eligible deposits.Head to edgeboost.io and use promo code HORIZON to get a $100 deposit match on your first $100. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
- 1 weeks ago55 min
Episode 31: News With Front Office Sports’ Ben Horney; Data With Grandstand’s Matt Restivo
Ben Horney of Front Office Sports stopped by to talk about recent developments in prediction markets. And Matt Restivo — SVP of Sports Data Services at Grandstand — chatted about data in PMs and the Optic Odds product.Show notes:New Jersey appeals to SCOTUS.Kalshi gets US Open deal.Injury markets.Kalshi bans George Santos. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
- 2 weeks ago26 min
Episode 30: Is Prediction Markets Vs. States Coming To SCOTUS?
The Ninth Circuit delivered bad news to Kalshi on Friday, as the prediction market company lost its appeal to Nevada. Where does the legal battle for prediction markets go from here? The US Supreme Court is definitely in play.Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down that news and everything else that happened last week in prediction markets.Show notes and more reporting/context on the decision:-Event Horizon-InGame-Nevada reacts: ““We are pleased with the Ninth Circuit’s ruling today in favor of Nevada. This completely vindicates what we have been saying all along. This is sports betting and needs to be properly regulated by the state. The Nevada Gaming Control Board has been regulating gaming in the state of Nevada for more than 70 years in accordance with the highest standards and best practices. We will continue to vigorously enforce Nevada law to safeguard gaming in our state,” stated Nevada Gaming Control Board Chairman Mike Dreitzer.“Prediction markets offering sports-event contracts constitute gambling and must comply with Nevada’s gaming laws and regulatory framework. I commend Chairman Dreitzer and the Nevada Gaming Control Board for their diligent work to uphold Nevada’s longstanding regulatory standards, safeguard the integrity of our gaming industry, and ensure the public can continue to have confidence in its oversight,” said Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo.The rest:-Clash Between Prediction Markets and States Sets Off a Furious Political Battle (New York Times): “In early March, Donald Trump Jr. made a pitch to a crowd of Republican state attorneys general who had gathered for a three-day retreat at the Ritz-Carlton hotel in New Orleans. …”“Sitting onstage for a question-and-answer session with Montana’s attorney general, Mr. Trump suggested that state leaders were being led astray by a ‘vested interest’ — gambling firms that wanted to protect their ‘monopolies’ by attacking prediction markets, four people familiar with his remarks said. In reality, he said, the markets already had robust oversight, describing them as a sophisticated financial tool overseen by federal officials, not state attorneys general.”-CFTC Orders Gabriel Perez to Pay $172,000 for Insider Trading of Mention Market Event Contracts (press release): The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today announced an order filing and settling charges against Gabriel Perez for misappropriating material, nonpublic information obtained through his federal government employment in order to trade event contracts (i.e., swaps) on a prediction market platform for his personal benefit.Under the order, Perez must disgorge the profits he made from his unlawful trading totaling $107,539.02 and pay a civil monetary penalty of $65,000, representing a substantial discount under the Division of Enforcement’s new cooperation advisory because of Perez’s exemplary cooperation with the CFTC.-LSU Football Coach Kiffin’s Bonuses Hedged Using $3 Million Kalshi Trades Placed By Outside Firm (InGame): “A third party helping Louisiana State University hedge against potential bonus payments to football coach Lane Kiffin used bets on the team’s performance on Kalshi to offset exposure. Similar trades were placed last month on South Carolina’s football team, again from a third party rather than the university, though the exact risk being hedged for those trades is less clear. Two weeks ago, five ‘block’ trades — trades negotiated off exchange — were placed on LSU to have a successful college football season, worth a combined $3 million.” This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
- 3 weeks ago23 min
Episode 29: Innovation-Maxxing At The CFTC
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission got a bunch of important people in prediction markets together for a meeting in Washington, DC. Did we learn anything? Why were people yelling at each other? What happens next? Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down that meeting, and all the recent news in prediction markets.Subscribe nowShow notes:The CFTC meetingA Republican problem for prediction markets? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
- Aug 17, 20261h 22m
Episode 28: Prediction Market Policy With Aaron Klein Of The Brookings Institution
The Brookings Institution’s Aaron Klein stopped by to talk about all things prediction markets (starts at the 47-minute mark). He is a senior fellow at Brookings’ Center on Regulation and Markets and worked on the Dodd-Frank Act.Klein has led a pair of events about prediction markets hosted by Brookings:Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I also break down all the recent news in prediction markets, including a lot of news around stuff other than sports event contracts!Show notes:FlightAware vs. KalshiSports mention marketsHedging on goat herding!A crazy Wisconsin primaryNovig responsible tradingThe CFTC was busy:An emergency orderReining in incentives programAmerican odds go bye-bye? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
- Aug 10, 20261h 5m
Episode 27: Interview With ProphetX Co-Founder Jake Benzaquen
There are endless stories and hot takes about people betting on wildfires…even though no one is actually offering markets on fires. And there are lots of people yelling about betting on drug trials. What exactly is going on? Daniel O’Boyle of InGame breaks that down and all the recent news in prediction markets.To wit, prediction markets on drug trials made NPR’s All Things Considered:Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as ‘ghastly’: “‘What seemed to be missed in the CEO statements was the fact that there were going to be patients on the other side of these bets,’ said Pederson, who is a humanities professor at Boston University.”“Bettors will make or lose money based on the success or failure of a clinical trial, a situation Pederson views as horrific.”I also sat down with ProphetX co-founder Jake Benzaquen (36-minute mark) to talk about the company’s journey to becoming a federally regulated exchange.Show notes:Wildfire betting: https://www.merkley.senate.gov/merkley-padilla-shaheen-schiff-rosen-cortez-masto-heinrich-wyden-klobuchar-cftc-must-rein-in-wildfire-bets-on-prediction-markets/Betting on drug trials: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/28/business/kalshi-polymarket-prediction-market-drugs.htmlDraftKings Q2: https://www.ingame.com/overlap-draftkings-sportsbook-kalshi-users/Flutter Q2: https://www.ingame.com/fanduel-flutter-earnings-call-dcm-exchange/Polymarket + Yankees: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/polymarket-becomes-an-official-prediction-market-partner-of-the-new-york-yankees-302844285.htmlElections + PMs:Michigan Senate Primary Shows Kalshi, Polymarket Better Be Careful About Calling Races In November This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
- Aug 3, 202639 min
Episode 26: Stakes Are High For Prediction Markets As Court Battles Intensify
It was a busy week in court for prediction markets, from a big lawsuit from the New York attorney general to a win for Kalshi in Minnesota. Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and Dustin Gouker break down all the important news on the legal front and beyond in this week’s Event Horizon podcast.Show notes:Legal stuff, from InGame:New York Sues Kalshi In State Court, Asks For $36 Billion FineSixth Circuit Judge To Kalshi: What’s So Bad About Being Regulated By States?Prediction Markets Still Legal In Minnesota, But Kalshi At Risk Of New York BanNevada Says It ‘Shut Down’ Kalshi’s Sports Business, As Prediction Market Agrees To Use Third-Party GeofenceThe rest:News: IG Group To Acquire Underdog In Deal Worth Up To $1.3 BillionMeet the Mets’ Prediction-Market Pick: NovigThree Things We Learned About Robinhood And Prediction Markets During Q2 EarningsTaking Stock Of The Prediction Markets Rules Comments: CME Raises (Many) Questions, Kalshi Urges Adoptions, And Dodd Speaks This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
- Jul 24, 202631 min
Episode 25: Betting On LeBron James' Next Team Got Really Big At Prediction Markets
I’ll be at NEXTPredict in October; a lot of big names and smart people from the prediction markets industry will be there. Get your tickets now for 15% off using this link and promo code CLOSINGLINE15.We started the podcast just talking about how popular betting on LeBron James’ next team had become at Kalshi and other prediction markets. And then as Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I were wrapping up the pod, he announced where he was going!Show notes:-Cap Space:LeBron's Decision 3.0 Is More Popular To Bet on Than Actual Basketball-The Kalshi market-Wisconsin election betting:Wisconsin Warns Election Bettors They Could Lose Their Vote, And Kalshi Isn’t Happy-The Trump teleprompter fallout (or lack thereof):Four Questions About The White House Teleprompter Operator Who Allegedly Bet On Kalshi This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
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