The Fertility Crash Is Already Here | Lyman Stone | Escaped Sapiens #93

Fertility is dropping worldwide. Across much of the West, total fertility rates now sit around 1.4-1.5 births per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1. That implies a long-run population decline in the absence of immigration: each generation is smaller than the last, compounding over time. To make this concrete, if you take a representative group of 100 adults today and project forward under a constant fertility rate of about 1.5 births per woman, that group would, on average, correspond to roughly 50 grandchildren two generations later-an effective halving of the population. In South Korea the effect is far more extreme. With a total fertility rate around 0.7-0.8 births per woman, the same kind of projection implies that 100 adults today would correspond to only about 10-15 grandchildren on average two generations later. In other words, each generation is dramatically smaller than the one before it, compounding rapidly over time. So what does this actually mean? What happens when societies move from growth to sustained generational decline? How do pension systems function when the ratio of workers to retirees collapses? What happens to economic growth, political stability, cultural continuity, identity, and population composition in societies that are rapidly aging and shrinking at the same time? In this conversation, I speak with Lyman Stone, Senior Fellow and Director of the Pronatalism Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies, and Director of Research at Demographic Intelligence. We discuss the data behind the fertility crash, the drivers of this global shift, its long-term implications, and the policy options that might-or might not-reverse it. ►Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/i-vgPaxB-Wg ►You can find out more about Lyman's work here: https://ifstudies.org/about-us/lyman-stone#:~:text=Lyman%20Stone%20is%20a%20Senior,with%20a%20Population%20Dynamics%20specialization.