Robert Pape: Iran Is Escalating — Is Trump Losing Leverage?

Iran is escalating its war with the United States — not only through direct attacks, but through its Shia allies and proxies across the Middle East. The Iran-backed Houthis have seized key territory on Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the strategically important Perim Island at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, giving them a growing ability to threaten shipping and Saudi oil exports. At the same time, an attack launched from Iraqi territory has forced Saudi Arabia to shut down its crucial East-West oil pipeline, a key alternative route for exporting oil around the Strait of Hormuz. What is Iran trying to achieve? Are Tehran and its allies successfully shifting the balance of power in their favour? And can this strategy force Donald Trump to reconsider the war? Oil prices have already surged as the conflict disrupts key energy routes. But will prices continue to rise? And what does this mean for the argument that a prolonged crisis over the Strait of Hormuz would trigger a global economic crisis and force Washington to back down? Robert Pape is professor of political science at the University of Chicago.