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by Tom Switzer
A new program about politics, modern history and international relations with host Tom Switzer.
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Right-wing populist parties are surging across Europe -- and Germany is at the centre of the upheaval. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has made major gains in recent state elections, challenging the dominance of Germany’s established political parties. What is driving this revolt against the political establishment -- and why is it happening now? To make sense of the populist ascendancy, Tom Switzer speaks with Simon Heffer, aka Lord Blackwater, one of Britain’s leading political and cultural historians and columnist during the past four decades.. Why has support for the established parties collapsed? How important are immigration, economic stagnation and declining competitiveness? Why has the AfD, France’s Le Pen and Nigel Farage’s Reform party attracted voters from the traditional working-class constituencies. Are they really neo-Nazis, as some of their detractors allege? And what does the rise of the populist right tell us about the future of European politics?
The most revealing development in Donald Trump’s war with Iran may not be taking place in Tehran at all. It is happening hundreds of kilometres away, on Yemen’s Red Sea coast. In the past week, the Iran-backed Houthis have seized strategically important territory across Yemen’s Red Sea coast. From there, they have greater capacity to threaten shipping through the Red Sea and, crucially, Saudi Arabia’s ability to export oil. There are reports that the Trump administration is considering a large-scale operation against the Houthis. But how can the United States defeat the Houthis? Plus, the latest on the Russia-Ukraine standoff. At what point does military attrition become a threat not merely to Ukraine’s army but to the viability of the Ukrainian state itself? John Mearsheimer is professor of political science at the University of Chicago and the author of The Tragedy of Great Power Politics.
Is Ukraine really turning the tide against Russia? Western media coverage has increasingly focused on Ukraine’s drone strikes, Russia’s economic difficulties and mounting battlefield losses, prompting claims that Vladimir Putin is under growing pressure. But what is actually happening on the battlefield? Who has the strategic advantage as the war enters its fifth year, and can Russia consolidate its hold over the Donbas? Is there a growing risk of a wider confrontation between Russia and the West? Has the war in Iran diverted American attention and depleted key weapons stocks needed by Ukraine? Is Moscow losing faith in Washington’s ability to honour any future agreement? And with Russian drones and aircraft increasingly testing NATO’s eastern flank, how dangerous is the present trajectory? Does the Western narrative of a Ukrainian turning point match the underlying strategic realities? Anatol Lieven is a senior fellow and at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft based in Washington.
Iran is escalating its war with the United States — not only through direct attacks, but through its Shia allies and proxies across the Middle East. The Iran-backed Houthis have seized key territory on Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the strategically important Perim Island at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, giving them a growing ability to threaten shipping and Saudi oil exports. At the same time, an attack launched from Iraqi territory has forced Saudi Arabia to shut down its crucial East-West oil pipeline, a key alternative route for exporting oil around the Strait of Hormuz. What is Iran trying to achieve? Are Tehran and its allies successfully shifting the balance of power in their favour? And can this strategy force Donald Trump to reconsider the war? Oil prices have already surged as the conflict disrupts key energy routes. But will prices continue to rise? And what does this mean for the argument that a prolonged crisis over the Strait of Hormuz would trigger a global economic crisis and force Washington to back down? Robert Pape is professor of political science at the University of Chicago.
This week on Switzerland, Tom Switzer is joined by Professor Jeffrey Sachs from Columbia University. Subjects include the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks: what did America learn –- and what did it fail to learn? How much of the foreign-policy thinking that emerged from that moment still shapes the Trump administration? When will US leaders recognise limits to military and economic power in a messy world that won’t conform to America’s expectations? When will Washington, to use a neoconservative phrase, get mugged by reality? Plus, is the tide turning against Tehran? After all, Iran has failed to shut Hormuz completely. The global economy has proved remarkably resilient. And the American naval blockade is severely restricting Iran’s oil exports, placing mounting pressure on its already fragile economy. And is Ukraine really winning the war against Russia, as several western commentators allege? Or are Moscow’s strategic gains in eastern Ukraine irreversible?
It’s been more than six months into the war with Iran, and the question that matters is becoming harder to avoid: who is actually losing this war? The conventional wisdom has been that Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran was a catastrophic strategic blunder — that Tehran could absorb the punishment, close the Strait of Hormuz and inflict enormous economic costs on America and its allies. But the picture now looks rather more complicated. Iran has failed to shut Hormuz completely, the global economy has proved remarkably resilient, and the American naval blockade is severely restricting Iran’s oil exports and squeezing its already fragile economy. Is the strategic clock now ticking against Tehran? Has the balance of the war begun to shift? Is Iran running out of time? Or does Washington still face the greater strategic and political costs? And what does this war tell us about the future of American power, the Middle East and the cycle of military intervention that has defined U.S. foreign policy since the 9/11 terror attacks 25 years ago? Trita Parsi is from the Quincy Institute and Stephen Wertheim is from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Both are based in Washington, DC.
The conventional wisdom holds that the US war on Iran has been a massive strategic blunder. As John Mearsheimer has repeatedly argued, Washington went to war with four principal objectives: regime change, ending Iran’s uranium-enrichment program, destroying its ballistic-missile capabilities, and dismantling its network of militia proxies. None has been achieved. Add to this the damage inflicted on America’s alliance structure and the risks to US military bases across the region, and it is easy to see why Mearsheimer’s assessment -- that President Trump has presided over a foreign-policy debacle -- has gained such a wide following. But what if it is the Islamic Republic of Iran that is now in serious trouble? The US naval blockade is inflicting economic pain on Iran, while Tehran’s attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz has so far failed to produce the global energy crisis that many predicted. The world economy has proved surprisingly resilient, while Iran’s ability to export its oil is being severely constrained. What if, as the American scholar and columnist Walter Russell Mead has suggested, President Trump can keep as much energy as possible flowing through and around the Strait while simultaneously tightening the economic screws on Tehran? Could Iran’s rulers have overplayed their hand? John Mearsheimer is Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and the author of The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (2001).
Six months after Donald Trump launched his war on Iran, the regime survives, the Strait of Hormuz remains contested, and Washington is struggling to turn military might into a political victory. Trump and his supporters can make a credible case that Iran has been severely damaged. Its air force and much of its navy have been destroyed; its nuclear program has been set back; senior leadership has been decapitated; its economy is in terrible shape. But none of that necessarily translates into political leverage. What happens next? Tehran remains defiant and Washington faces dangerous questions: how do you end a war when military power cannot deliver political capitulation? And has America reached its limits in Iran? Has the Iran conflict fundamentally changed the strategic equation in Ukraine? Patrick Cockburn is columnist with the I paper in London. Join Tom's Exclusive Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/cff5e11f69a3/switzerland-with-tom-switzer Read Tom's Substack: https://substack.com/@tomswitzer Tom Switzer is a journalist and broadcaster who has been a prolific commentator on politics and international affairs. His writing and commentary have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times (international), The Australian, and across ABC and News24 (formerly Sky News), where he has been a regular presenter and panellist. For 30 years, since 1995, he has worked at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, the Australian Financial Review, The Australian, the London-based Spectator magazine, and the Sydney-based Centre for Independent Studies, which he headed from 2017 to 2025. He is the host of Switzerland, a long-form interview series exploring global politics, modern history, and the ideas shaping the world.
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