Review of the July 2026 U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index - Rates Edition

Freight rates have entered a new phase, and the signals pointing to it have been hiding in plain sight for anyone willing to look past the headlines and into the data. In this episode of Supply Chain Now, Scott W. Luton is joined by Jake Barr, Chris Caplice, Chief Scientist at DAT Freight & Analytics, and Bobby Holland, Vice President/Director of Freight Business Analytics at U.S. Bank, to dig into the newly launched U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index Rates Edition, a joint report combining U.S. Bank's $46 billion in annual freight payment processing with DAT's database of more than a trillion in freight market transactions. Chris breaks down why this tightening cycle isn't the surprise so many transportation executives believe it to be, explaining how capacity, not demand, is the real driver this time around, fueled by driver shortages, tighter regulations, and unprecedented data center build-out. Bobby brings the numbers to life, showing how spot rate movement has historically preceded shifts in contract rates and why shippers should treat that signal as an early warning system rather than an afterthought. The conversation lands on what shippers can actually do about it: stress-testing budgets, segmenting freight into dedicated, contract, and dynamic buckets, and using data to answer the question every CFO eventually asks, is it me, or is it the market? Jake closes with a blunt prediction for the shipper side and a challenge to turn the last few years of smooth sailing into real, productive reinvestment. \ Jump into the conversation: (00:00) Intro (02:54) What is the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index Rates Edition (05:18) What DAT Freight Analytics does (06:28) The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index explained (08:47) Is the truckload market really turning (11:24) Why this cycle is capacity-driven, not demand-driven (17:57) Carriers gain pricing power in a tightening market (20:53) What's changed in the market since January (23:16) Why spot rates lead contract rate shifts (28:01) Elephants vs goldfish: how shippers and carriers remember the market (37:52) Prescribed actions: segmenting your freight network (55:23) Final predictions and one key takeaway for shippers Additional Links & Resources: Connect with Chris Caplice: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-caplice-1839/ Connect with Bobby Holland: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bobby-holland-4a9355/ Connect with Jake Barr: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jake-barr-3883501/ Learn more about DAT Freight & Analytics: https://www.dat.com/ Learn more about U.S. Bank: https://www.usbank.com/index.html Learn more about BlueWorld Supply Chain Consulting: https://www.blueworldscc.com/ Learn more about our hosts: https://supplychainnow.com/about Learn more about Supply Chain Now: https://supplychainnow.com Watch and listen to more Supply Chain Now episodes here: https://supplychainnow.com/program/supply-chain-now Subscribe to Supply Chain Now on your favorite platform: https://supplychainnow.com/join Work with us! Download Supply Chain Now’s NEW Media Kit: https://supplychainnow.com/media-kit/ WEBINAR- Peak Reality Check: What Shippers, Analysts, and AI Models Are Predicting for 2026: https://bit.ly/4aTlsRv WEBINAR- From Volume to Resilience: How Automotive Supply Chains Are Adapting to a New Market Reality: https://bit.ly/4f6SUGA WEBINAR- The Automotive Industry’s Next