What I Bet - Thursday July 30th

Griffin Warner talks betting for Thursday. Griffin Warner opens the show with a look back at a hot recent run before diving into a packed ten game Major League Baseball slate for Thursday, working from the early window through the night's final first pitch in Los Angeles. He starts with the Texas Rangers visiting the Tampa Bay Rays at 12:10 Eastern, where Cole Winn faces one of the game's most dominant arms in Shane McClanahan, and explains why he still finds value on a Tampa Bay team built to win at home even with a slightly bigger price than he would like. From there he moves to the Kansas City Royals at the Minnesota Twins, detailing how injuries to Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino have shaped his lean to the under, while questioning whether Bailey Ober can keep missing bats with modest velocity for his size. He covers the New York Yankees trip to face the Chicago White Sox and Sean Burke, pointing to sloppy recent losses and a red hot closer in David Bednar as reasons Chicago has yet to earn his trust as a home underdog. The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals get a full breakdown next, with Warner favoring Chicago's defense and approach over a Cardinals club he believes has overachieved and is due for a correction, even with Andre Pallante pitching well lately. He previews the Miami Marlins traveling to face the New York Mets, weighing a fresh Juan Soto injury and a taxing doubleheader against a Miami team trying to snap a long losing streak behind a talented young arm. The Pittsburgh Pirates at the Cincinnati Reds gets attention for a disrespected home underdog price and a hitter friendly ballpark that shapes his total lean, and the Washington Nationals at the Atlanta Braves becomes his headline play of the night, with Jake Irvin returning from injury and a shaky Washington bullpen pushing him firmly toward the over. He closes the game by game breakdown with the Seattle Mariners visiting the Los Angeles Dodgers, explaining why a difficult home run park and a pitcher who has struggled on the road push him toward a total that most books have set too low. Along the way Warner shares his season long track record, sitting comfortably in the green and chasing a higher unit total before the World Series, and details how listeners can save fifty dollars on his Major League Baseball Second Half All Access package using a promo code good for a limited time. The episode wraps with his single best bet of the day, a total play built around a Washington offense he expects to produce plenty of runs against an Atlanta pitching staff and bullpen he does not fully trust, closing out another edition of his daily baseball betting breakdown with the same discipline and record keeping that has defined his recent stretch of results. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices