Cumberland Farms S-1 Breakdown: Fuel, Snacks, and Debt

On this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ breaks down Cumberland Farms’ IPO filing and the surprising business behind it.—SPONSORS:RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform that lets your product team ship new pricing without asking finance for permission, and your sales team close deals without creating downstream chaos. Check out their free tool at calculator.rightrev.com It scores your rev rec process, shows what's exposing you to risk, and tells you exactly where to focus before it bites you in the rear end. Check it out at https://calculator.rightrev.comPulley is an equity management platform that lets you issue options, model dilution, and complete 409As without your cap table turning into a spreadsheet disaster. Founders raising, hiring, and scaling use Pulley to keep equity clean and stay focused on building. Learn more or request a demo at https://pulley.com/mostlymetricsRillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cjMaximor is an autonomous finance platform that runs order-to-cash, procure-to-pay, the close, cash management, and reporting on self-learning agents instead of a dozen disconnected tools. One PE-backed customer cut their close in half, took audit findings from seven to zero, and cut back-office costs by 70% in six months. You pay for outcomes, not seats. See it at https://www.maximor.ai/Brex is an intelligent finance platform with AI-powered agents that capture expenses automatically, enforce policy before the spend happens, and close your books in minutes instead of weeks. 35,000+ companies like OpenAI, Coinbase, Anthropic, and DoorDash already run on Brex. It's time to get Brex AF. Learn more at https://www.brex.com/metricsAnrok is the sales tax platform that watches your exposure everywhere, automates compliance, and flags risk before it turns into a surprise back-tax letter from a state you've never set foot in. Companies like Anthropic, Notion, and Vanta already trust Anrok to stay ahead of rules that move faster than any spreadsheet can. Talk to a sales tax expert for a personalized exposure estimate at https://www.anrok.com/rtn—LINKS: Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsNCJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—TIMESTAMPS:0:00 Preview and Intro2:57 Key metrics4:28 Europe now out-earns America5:01 $5.8B debt at 8x leverage6:20 TLDR: snacks, gas, borrowed money7:58 Fuel vs. inside: the gross profit photo finish8:58 COCO, CONCO, and OTHER explained10:57 Sponsors — Maximor | Brex | Anrok14:02 Why scale matters: four reasons16:02 The US convenience store market17:42 EVs: long the birth rate18:05 Back to the debt19:10 The sale leaseback20:24 Sponsors — RightRev | Pulley | Rillet23:26 Does the deleveraging math work?24:27 The growth thesis25:06 600–700 stores become Cumberland Farms26:16 The chicken fryer ROI27:00 Coffee and loyalty: 6M members in 13 months28:15 Red flag 1: five-for-five COSO failures28:41 Red flag 2: entire C-suite is new29:04 Red flag 3: lending to their own parent29:42 Red flag 4: Big Tobacco funds loyalty29:57 Red flag 5: foreign issuer, Cayman charter30:10 Red flag 6: one supplier is 31% of costs30:32 Red flag 7: balance sheet is stale30:45 Cap table: TDR Capital and the Issa brothers31:55 Casey's vs. ARCO33:47 Goldman got bumped34:08 Massachusetts banned the pump clip until 201534:57 No health insurance disclosure for 16K US workers35:30 Robert Swan (ex-Intel CEO) is on the board36:08 Credits