Dan Niles: This Isn't the Top, It's a Speed Bump

Dan Nathan hosts Dan Niles of Niles Investment Management on the Risk Reversal podcast to discuss a rallying market amid a 5% 10-year yield, rising global rates, and negative September seasonality ahead of the midterms. Niles argues AI-driven data-center spending has powered 2024 returns, but warns of risks from Texas’s data-center moratorium, potential political pushback, comments by Altman, Anthropic’s Dario, and Musk about slowing AI, falling model pricing and profitability concerns, and possible compute-reducing architectural shifts; he cites early signs of spend shifting toward cheaper open-source models. They discuss how hiking cycles, deficits, and weak equity risk premium could pressure valuations and unwind carry trades, and compare today’s AI buildout to the dot-com era, where backlogs and circular financing can reverse quickly. Niles sees AI ultimately consolidating to a few winners, favors Anthropic in enterprise, expects Google to reassert leadership due to data and cloud acceleration, views Meta as a dark-horse beneficiary via consumer distribution, explains Microsoft’s advantage through its OpenAI stake and security-focused Copilot, and outlines a bullish 2025 view on Apple driven by a foldable-phone upgrade cycle despite near-term execution risks. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.