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- 2 weeks ago1h 25m
Diesel and the Global Energy War With Tatiana Mitrova
https://youtu.be/0XphI3eqKGc Recorded October 13, 2026 In episode 167 of the PetroNerds Podcast, Trisha Curtis, CEO of PetroNerds and host of the podcast, welcomes Tatiana Mitrova back to discuss diesel prices, wartime oil flows, and the growing importance of energy security. Tatiana is a Global Fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. Together, they examine how events in the Middle East, Russia and Ukraine, and China are shaping the availability and price of fuel around the world. The discussion centers on a critical distinction: crude oil can continue reaching the market while diesel and other refined products remain constrained. Trisha and Tatiana explain how alternative pipelines, shipping arrangements, and rising production have supported crude supply, while refinery disruptions and export restrictions put pressure on finished fuels. They connect those pressures to Europe’s winter outlook, China’s influence over Asian fuel supplies, and the prices American consumers pay at the pump. In this episode U.S. diesel prices respond to global conditions even when domestic supply is adequate. Saudi and UAE pipelines and alternative export routes are weakening Iran’s leverage and changing the risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf China is using its refining capacity and export decisions to create geopolitical leverage within Asia and beyond. Refinery closures and competition for imported fuel impact Europe and poorer nations Europe has chosen anti-hydrocarbon policies, reducing domestic oil and gas production and refining, making Europe extremely vulnerable to global supply disruptions Inventories, spare capacity, and alternative routes matter during a disruption. Energy infrastructure and the Russia-Ukraine war. The outlook for oil prices The market backdrop and Saudi export routes Trisha opens with an October 13 market snapshot, quoting WTI at $94.28 per barrel, Brent at $105.97, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 5.219%. She also highlights the gap between U.S. and European natural gas prices and the economic pressure of expensive energy and higher borrowing costs. The conversation begins with the reported Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and questions about protecting critical infrastructure. Trisha and Tatiana discuss Saudi Arabia’s ability to maintain oil exports through Yanbu and its East West pipeline system, the case for expanding those routes, and how adapting to disrupted shipping is reducing Iran’s influence over crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Why crude oil and diesel face different constraints Tatiana explains why moving refined products through a disrupted shipping corridor presents a different challenge from moving crude. Refined product tankers generally carry smaller cargoes, making military escorts more demanding relative to the volume delivered. Trisha raises the possibility of greater allied involvement in protecting those shipments. They connect those logistical constraints with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, reduced Russian diesel exports, and limited room for additional U.S. refinery output. Tatiana explains how an adequately supplied, diesel-exporting United States can still experience high prices through its connection to the global market. Trisha also discusses diesel crack spreads, competition with jet fuel production, and seasonal demand from heating, freight, and agriculture. Chinese refining capacity and export decisions China is central to their assessment of where additional refined products could come from. They discuss unused refining capacity, restrictions on product exports, and the distinction between capacity that exists and supply that Beijing allows onto the international market. Trisha explains that China’s diesel export decisions are increasing its influence over fuel-importing neighbors and intensifying economic pressure on the United States, helping Iran, ahead of midterms.  Tatiana describes overlapping motives, beginning with China’s own energy security and stockpiling, followed by influence over neighboring countries and advantages over competitors.  While Russia, Iran, and China may have separate national intere
- 3 weeks ago1h 39m
The Future of American Power-Energy
https://youtu.be/E4nBRL3OV-A?si=fWzd-6nEpVvaMIif Recorded September 16, 2026, and October 7, 2026 In episode 166 of the PetroNerds Podcast, Trisha Curtis opens with an October 7, 2026 market update before sharing her September 16th, 2026 keynote conversation from the ROSA Energy Conference. The introduction connects diesel tightness, refining capacity, restricted Chinese refined-product exports, and changing Middle Eastern oil flows with rising global bond yields, debt, and the pressure of more expensive energy. Trisha calls for more energy honesty: a clearer account of what is happening in the oil market, what refineries can supply, and what is driving electricity costs. She examines the difference between recovering crude flows and adequate supplies of finished fuels, while considering the financial and geopolitical risks surrounding those markets. The keynote brings that discussion to tribal energy development and the future of American power. Joining remotely from Big Horn, Wyoming, Trisha speaks with Roger Fragua of the Tribal Energy Consortium and Dr. Buford Pollett of the University of Tulsa about attracting investment, developing Native energy resources, expanding reliable generation, and preparing the next generation of energy professionals. Key takeaways Crude availability and diesel availability require separate analysis Refining capacity is part of energy security. Energy costs interact with broader financial pressures Electricity affordability requires scrutiny of the whole system Reliable power is central to industrial strength Long-term demand requires continued investment The workforce is part of the energy challenge October 7 market snapshot and financial pressure In her October 7 market snapshot, Trisha quotes WTI at $89.57 per barrel and Brent at $101.93, drawing attention to the substantial difference between the benchmarks. She also discusses the gap between U.S. and European natural gas prices and the strain that expensive energy places on European economies. Her macroeconomic assessment connects rising government bond yields, debt, mortgage affordability, inflation, and political uncertainty. She examines whether the financing demands of AI investment are adding to competition for capital and focuses on the combination of fiscal and energy pressures in France and elsewhere in Europe. Trisha raises concerns about mounting economic strain without making a recession forecast. Diesel tightness and refining capacity Trisha returns to the diesel discussion from episode 165, examining gasoline-diesel price differences and regional U.S. refinery utilization. She reviews activity in the Midwest, Rockies, Gulf Coast, West Coast, and East Coast, and argues that lost California refining capacity has reduced America’s ability to respond to a tight global product market. She discusses French crude and diesel reserve releases as a potential source of temporary relief, along with the challenge of adjusting refinery output between jet fuel and diesel at the margin. The importance of diesel extends through freight, agriculture, rail, and heating, making refining capacity and product availability central to her assessment of energy security. China and the global refined product market Trisha examines reported Chinese restrictions on refined-product exports for October and argues that China’s refining capacity gives it influence over fuel-importing countries in Asia. She interprets tighter exports as both a supply issue and a source of geopolitical leverage, including pressure connected to the Iran conflict and the Trump administration. Her focus is on how China’s export decisions can affect an already tight diesel market and the availability of fuel for buyers elsewhere. Hormuz and changing geopolitical risks Trisha describes geopolitical whiplash in oil-market coverage and discusses reports of recovering flows through the Strait of Hormuz. She distinguishes those reports from the separate question of whether Middle Eastern refineries and refined-product exports are recovering sufficiently to ease fuel shortages. She considers reported changes in Sau
- Sep 21, 202640 min
$100 Oil, $6 Diesel, and NO to Banning Exports
https://youtu.be/uiecwH0josk?si=FpYEiizPecSEk-Kr Recorded: September 20, 2026 In episode 165 of the PetroNerds Podcast, Trisha Curtis, CEO of PetroNerds and host of the PetroNerds podcast, examines $100 barrel oil, diesel above $6 a gallon, and why banning U.S. diesel exports will not work. She connects the Federal Reserve’s rate increase with persistent energy inflation, explains the refining economics behind her opposition to export restrictions, and analyzes China’s renewed crude purchasing and the threats to Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu East–West pipeline. The episode explores how global disruptions reach American consumers—and why continued production, refining, and trade are essential to energy security.  Key Takeaways $100 oil and $6+ diesel could keep inflationary pressure elevated. Banning U.S. diesel exports could backfire. U.S. energy security depends on production, refining, and global trade working together. China’s renewed crude buying deserves close attention. Global disruptions can raise U.S. prices even when America has adequate supply. Trisha begins with the relationship between energy prices, inflation, and interest rates. She questions how effectively the Federal Reserve can address an inflation problem driven partly by oil-market disruptions and explains why higher borrowing costs could slow other parts of the economy without resolving the underlying energy constraints. Her concern is not simply that oil has reached $100 a barrel. It is the persistence of elevated oil, gasoline, and diesel prices, combined with expensive mortgages, that could increasingly weigh on consumers and economic activity. She is not calling for a recession, but she explains why her assessment of the economic risks has evolved as the conflict has continued.  Diesel is central to that discussion. Trisha looks beyond the cost of filling a pickup truck to its role in freight, rail transportation, construction, agriculture, and heating. She discusses the gasoline and diesel demand figures she is watching and the potential for sustained diesel-price increases to work their way through the wider economy. The question is both how much consumers are paying today and how long businesses can absorb higher fuel costs before passing them along. The core of the episode is why banning diesel exports will not work. She walks listeners through the basic mechanics of refining: a barrel of crude produces multiple products, not a single fuel that policymakers can isolate without consequences. Different crude qualities and refinery configurations affect the product mix, but gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel remain connected through the economics of processing the barrel. Restricting diesel exports could weaken refining margins and reduce the incentive to process crude, undermining fuel supply rather than delivering price relief.  Trisha discusses U.S. commercial petroleum inventories separately from Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns and credits the refining sector’s response with helping maintain supplies during the conflict. She also explains why U.S. crude imports and exports are not contradictory: the country produces light, sweet crude while sophisticated Gulf Coast refineries are equipped to process heavier barrels, including Canadian oil-sands crude. Preserving trade flows supports the production and refining system rather than detracting from American energy security.  Natural gas provides another example of the importance of market access. Trisha contrasts low Henry Hub prices with much higher European natural-gas prices and discusses competition between Europe and Asia for LNG. Continued LNG exports are important both for sustaining and growing U.S. natural gas production and for maintaining America’s credibility as an international supplier. She warns against allowing the diesel-export debate to become a broader justification for restricting crude oil, refined products, or LNG (liquefied natural gas).  The conversation then turns to China. Building on the previous PetroNerds episode with Jason Isaac, Trisha distinguishes crude imports, stockpiling, and end-user consumption. She examines the increase in Chinese crude purchases and challenges the explanation that attractive refining margins alone account for China’s return to the market. China’s inv
- Sep 5, 20261h 18m
China’s Oil War Chest—What the Market Is Missing
https://youtu.be/-lVSNUBo7ZM Recorded September 1, 2026 China’s reported crude-oil imports have fallen sharply—but Chinese oil demand has not collapsed. In this China-focused special, Trisha Curtis is joined by friend, colleague, and returning guest Jason Isaac to examine what conventional oil-market analysis may be missing. They begin with WTI near $91 per barrel, Brent around $95, and a global market that has proven far more adaptable than predictions of $150 or $200 oil suggested. Despite the conflict involving Iran and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, crude continues to move through pipelines, alternative ports, shuttle-vessel arrangements, and rapidly changing trade routes.  Key Takeaways China’s falling crude imports do not mean oil demand has collapsed. China may be sitting on a massive oil war chest. Global oil markets have proven remarkably adaptable. China’s energy strategy gives it growing geopolitical and market leverage. Energy security requires more than resources in the ground. The central focus is China. Trisha argues that the dramatic reduction in Chinese imports should not be interpreted as an overnight transition from oil to electric vehicles or renewable energy. Instead, it reflects years of aggressive stockpiling, increased domestic production, lower refinery throughput, overbuilt refining capacity, continued refined-product exports, and additional crude entering through pipelines and other land routes that are difficult to track. China imported more than 13 million barrels per day in December 2025. Imports then fell from approximately 12.5 million barrels per day in February 2026 to 11.76 million in March, 9.3 million in April, below 8 million in May, and just over 7 million barrels per day in June. Trisha’s argument is that a material portion of the earlier volume was never end-user consumption—it was inventory accumulation. She estimates that China’s total petroleum stocks could be several times larger than commonly cited public estimates.  The conversation then expands into U.S. crude and refined-product exports, China’s growing influence in the oil market, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Venezuela’s production potential, the importance of the rule of law, U.S. shale growth, natural-gas infrastructure, and the growing burden of electricity and transmission costs on American residential consumers. This is a wide-ranging discussion about oil-market intelligence, national energy security, geopolitical leverage, and the fundamental difference between possessing energy resources and having the infrastructure, political stability, and industrial capacity required to use them.
- Aug 23, 20261h 5m
Pipelines, Chokepoints, and the New Geopolitical Map
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nto_uVvh6zE Recorded August 20th, 2026 and August 11th, 2026 In this special crossover episode of the PetroNerds Podcast, Trisha Curtis, CEO of PetroNerds and host of the PetroNerds podcast, sits down with energy analysts David Blackmon and Stu Turley for a wide-ranging discussion about oil prices, record U.S. production, global energy security, refining constraints, strategic petroleum inventories, and the geopolitical transformation of global oil flows. Key Takeaways Stable oil prices do not mean the physical petroleum market is calm. Record U.S. production, particularly from the Permian Basin, has helped prevent a sustained global price shock. Global markets are adapting through alternative trade routes, pipelines, inventory draws, tanker shifts, and refinery adjustments. Refining constraints and transportation risks increasingly influence fuel availability and regional prices. Market stress may appear in shipping rates, insurance costs, crude differentials, inventories, and refinery margins before reaching WTI or Brent prices. Major conflicts and disruptions are hitting nearly every part of the global petroleum system. Iranian and Russian barrels are moving through alternative trading networks. Tankers and energy infrastructure are under attack. The Red Sea remains vulnerable. Russian refineries have been targeted. The Strait of Hormuz continues to sit at the center of the global energy-security debate. Yet the oil market has not experienced the sustained price shock that many analysts expected. Why? Trisha explains that the answer begins with the strength of U.S. oil production, particularly the Permian Basin, but it does not end there. Global oil markets have adapted through alternative supply routes, pipeline systems, inventory draws, changes in tanker movements, refinery adjustments, and the continued availability of U.S. crude oil and petroleum-product exports. The conversation also examines an increasingly important distinction: a stable benchmark oil price does not necessarily mean that the physical oil market is calm. Stress can appear in tanker rates, war-risk insurance, crude differentials, delivery premiums, refinery margins, inventories, and regional gasoline and diesel prices without being fully reflected in headline WTI or Brent prices. This episode was originally recorded as a crossover discussion with David Blackmon and Stu Turley and is presented here as PetroNerds Podcast Episode 163. About the PetroNerds Podcast The PetroNerds Podcast, hosted by Trisha Curtis, delivers in-depth analysis of crude oil, natural gas, shale production, energy economics, geopolitics, technology, and global commodity markets. PetroNerds goes beyond headlines and market narratives to examine the production data, infrastructure, economics, policies, and geopolitical forces shaping the energy industry.
- Aug 7, 20261h 17m
Nuclear’s Comeback and the Age of Energy Addition
https://youtu.be/sOkqLZww1Rk Recorded Friday, July 10, 2026 In Episode 162 of the PetroNerds Podcast, Trisha Curtis, CEO of PetroNerds and Host of the PetroNerds Podcast, welcomes Doug Sandridge back to the show for a wide-ranging, unapologetically PetroNerdy conversation about nuclear power, electricity demand, energy security, and the global race for reliable energy. Doug is Senior Vice President of Fulcrum Energy Capital Funds, founder of Oil & Gas Executives for Nuclear Energy, an energy educator, and an adjunct instructor at the University of Oklahoma. This is Doug’s second PetroNerds appearance, following Episode 132, Oil and Nuclear, recorded in April 2025. Key Takeaways The future is energy addition, not energy substitution. Rising electricity demand from artificial intelligence, data centers, manufacturing, and economic growth will require more nuclear, natural gas, and other reliable energy sources—not fewer. America’s nuclear industry is gaining momentum. Advanced reactor demonstrations, regulatory reforms, plant-life extensions, and supply-chain investments are laying the groundwork for long-term growth, even if those investments are not yet reflected in national electricity generation data. Protecting existing nuclear plants is the fastest path to expanding reliable power. Extending the lives of operating reactors and restarting facilities like the Crane Clean Energy Center and Palisades Nuclear Plant can strengthen grid reliability far sooner than building entirely new large-scale reactors. Natural gas and nuclear are complementary, not competing technologies. New nuclear projects require dependable natural gas generation while reactors are under construction, and growing electricity demand means both energy sources will likely operate side by side for decades. Reliable electricity depends on more than generation costs. Evaluating the true cost of electricity requires accounting for transmission, backup generation, storage, balancing services, and overall grid reliability—not simply the cost of producing power at a single facility. Trisha opens with the July 10 market backdrop: WTI at $71.58 per barrel, Brent at $76.04, Henry Hub natural gas at $2.94 per MMBtu, and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.561 percent. Against that backdrop of geopolitical conflict, lower-than-expected oil prices, and rising borrowing costs, Trisha and Doug turn to the state of nuclear power in the United States.  Doug describes the nuclear industry as a duck that appears nearly stationary above the water while paddling furiously underneath. Although material growth in U.S. nuclear generation has yet to appear in the national electricity data, policy changes, regulatory work, pilot projects, supply-chain investments, plant-life extensions, and reactor demonstrations are creating the foundation for future growth. The two discuss the Department of Energy’s Reactor Pilot Program and the four advanced reactor demonstrations that reached criticality by July 4, 2026—while emphasizing that achieving criticality is an important technology milestone, not the same thing as commercial electricity generation.  The conversation then turns to the lowest-hanging fruit in American nuclear energy: protecting the reactors already operating and restarting plants that were closed for economic or political reasons. Trisha and Doug examine the fight over Diablo Canyon in California, the importance of long-term operating certainty for fuel procurement and capital investment, and the broader consequences of removing reliable baseload generation before replacement power is available.  They also discuss the planned restart of the former Three Mile Island Unit 1—now the Crane Clean Energy Center—under a long-term power-purchase agreement with Microsoft; the effort to restart the Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan; and the construction of TerraPower’s Natrium advanced reactor project near Kemmerer, Wyoming. These projects demonstrate how rising power demand from artificial intelligence, data centers, manufacturing, and the broader economy is changing the economics of existing and new nuclear generation.  Doug explains that large AP1000 reactors, small modular reactors, and microreactors will not all serve the same markets or arrive on the same timetable. Reactor restarts and life extensions can affect the grid first. Small and advanced reactors may be
- Jul 27, 20261h 19m
Energy Security Is National Security: Oil, Hormuz, China, and LNG
https://youtu.be/–TRke8F1qM Recorded July 26 and July 9, 2026 In Episode 161 of the PetroNerds Podcast, Trisha Curtis, CEO of PetroNerds and host of the PetroNerds Podcast, is joined by Stu Turley of Energy News Beat for a wide-ranging discussion on the intersection of energy markets, geopolitics, and national security. Key Takeaways Iran’s threats to the Strait of Hormuz highlight the importance of resilient global energy infrastructure. U.S. oil and natural gas production continue to provide America with a significant economic and geopolitical advantage. China’s investments in coal, synthetic fuels, and energy stockpiling underscore its long-term focus on energy security. Europe’s energy policies continue to challenge industrial competitiveness and grid reliability. Reliable, affordable energy remains the foundation of economic growth and national security. The conversation begins with escalating tensions involving Iran and the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz. Trisha and Stu examine attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping, discussing whether Iran’s actions reflect growing leverage or increasing desperation. They also explore how expanding export infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is reducing dependence on one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints. The discussion then shifts to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the contrasting energy strategies of the United States and China. While America remains the world’s leading producer of oil and natural gas—with crude production nearing 14 million barrels per day and natural gas output approaching 136 billion cubic feet per day—China continues investing heavily in energy stockpiles, coal-fired generation, and synthetic fuel production to strengthen its long-term energy resilience. Trisha explains why America’s energy abundance extends far beyond production. Refining capacity, pipeline infrastructure, LNG exports, petrochemicals, and manufacturing all contribute to a competitive advantage that supports economic growth while enhancing U.S. influence around the world. China’s approach provides a sharp contrast. The episode examines Beijing’s continued expansion of coal generation and coal-to-liquids projects as part of a broader strategy to reduce dependence on imported oil and prepare for future geopolitical disruptions. Rather than viewing these investments individually, Trisha and Stu discuss how they fit into China’s long-term planning for energy security. The conversation also explores Europe’s evolving energy landscape, including the consequences of reducing domestic coal, nuclear, and oil and gas production while increasing reliance on imported LNG. Trisha and Stu discuss how higher energy costs and declining industrial competitiveness complicate Europe’s efforts to expand defense spending and strengthen economic resilience. The episode concludes with a discussion on electricity markets, grid reliability, ESG and net-zero policies, American manufacturing, NATO, emerging trade relationships, and the growing strategic importance of LNG in global energy markets. The overarching theme is one that has become increasingly clear: energy security is national security. Countries that prioritize reliable, affordable, and scalable energy systems will be better positioned to support economic growth, strengthen national defense, and maintain geopolitical influence in an increasingly competitive world. Listen to the full conversation and subscribe to the PetroNerds Podcast for additional market analysis, geopolitical insights, and expert commentary on the forces shaping global energy.
- Jul 12, 202657 min
Oil Markets, Iran, China, and the Fight for Affordable Energy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2f7C_7ZyG0 Recorded: July 9, 2026 In this post–Fourth of July episode of the PetroNerds Podcast, Trisha Curtis welcomes Hon. Jason Isaac back to the show for a wide-ranging discussion about global oil markets, geopolitical risk, American energy security, and the policies shaping energy affordability and reliability. Trisha begins with a market snapshot—WTI near $72 per barrel, Brent around $76 per barrel, and Henry Hub natural gas near $3 per MMBtu—before examining the renewed conflict involving Iran. Trisha and Jason discuss attacks on ships and military installations, continued crude movements through and around the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. vessel escorts, ship-to-ship transfers, trucking, and the growing pipeline infrastructure that could steadily reduce Iran’s leverage over global oil flows. The conversation then expands to Russia’s shadow tanker fleet, Ukrainian attacks on vessels and refining infrastructure, Venezuelan and Iranian crude exports, and India’s growing role in refining Russian oil. Trisha explains why disrupting individual tankers and refineries matters, while cautioning that Russia still has multiple ways to move crude and obtain refined products. Trisha and Jason also break down the coordinated release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, emphasizing the difference between an exchange and an outright sale. They discuss the relationship between SPR drawdowns, U.S. crude exports, oil prices, and the eventual need to replenish strategic inventories. China is another major focus. Trisha challenges conventional estimates of Chinese oil demand and argues that China’s ability to reduce imports may reflect years of aggressive stockpiling rather than a sudden drawdown of its reserves. They explore China’s refined-product exports, its economic slowdown, its energy relationship with Russia, and the enormous influence Beijing continues to exercise across global energy markets. In the second half, the conversation turns to energy development in Africa, international financing, the World Bank, the U.S. Export-Import Bank, European energy policy, air-conditioning access, climate modeling, fuel taxes, climate litigation, the Texas power grid, Permian Basin natural gas, flaring restrictions, transmission spending, and the cost of integrating intermittent generation. Throughout the episode, Trisha and Jason make the case that abundant, affordable, and reliable energy is essential to economic development, national security, and human flourishing. Prepared from the supplied episode transcript.  Key Topics Why crude continued moving despite disruption concerns in the Strait of Hormuz Pipeline projects and alternative transportation routes around the strait Iran’s shrinking leverage over regional oil exports Russian shadow tankers and Ukrainian attacks on refining infrastructure The Strategic Petroleum Reserve exchange and its impact on exports and prices U.S. crude production approaching 14 million barrels per day China’s oil imports, stockpiling strategy, demand, and refined-product exports Energy investment, corruption, and infrastructure development in Africa International financing for coal, natural gas, and energy development European heat, air-conditioning access, and electricity reliability Climate modeling, RCP8.5, and the “They Knew” research project California fuel taxes and the consumer cost of climate mandates Climate litigation involving energy companies Texas transmission projects and the cost of integrating wind, solar, and batteries Permian Basin natural gas, power generation, ESG commitments, and flaring
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